A series of tweets from candidate Donald Trump toward the Republican Party of Virginia have many wondering what’s going on.

It would appear Mr. Trump, and/or the Trump Campaign, has become aware of the RPV intentions to force Virginia voters to swear an loyalty oath (statement of intent) prior to voting in the upcoming primary.  We Provided The Leaked Documents In November

Virginia is an interesting state when it comes to the Republican Party and conservative voters.  Partly due to the vicinity to Washington DC, and party due to many of the professionally republican living in the state, the hierarchy of the political party apparatus is blue-blooded GOPestablishment yet base of the voting electorate are vulgarian minded conservatives.

This historical antagonism has led to exceptionally polarized outcomes; David Brat defeating consummate GOPe Eric Cantor is the most brutally obvious recently.

Here’s the full back story, the leaked documents, the loyalty oath being demanded, and some rather interesting details into who’s-who. (more…)

Many people have discussed the risks of putting all your viable candidacy eggs in the evangelical basket. An article via CNN outlines a group of Super-PACs and donor interests who are now setting Ted Cruz in the cross hairs.

This CNN article highlights one of the biggest challenges for any candidate who is unable to build a broad and diverse base of support. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are all relying heavily on Iowa voters. Similarly, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and again, Marco Rubio (firewall) are dependent on success with New Hampshire voters.

Meanwhile the breakaway frontrunner, Donald Trump, targets America-first voters, the biggest, strongest and most broad base of them all.

Washington (CNN) – Ted Cruz, staring at hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative advertisements against him in Iowa that show only signs of growing, is battling to keep pace there with his most aggressive push yet to maintain his momentum in the Hawkeye State. (more…)

A national poll from Emerson College (full pdf below) shows essentially the same results from recent polling organizations.  Donald Trump with a significant lead at 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 21% and Marco Rubio in third at 13%.

The sample sizes are small, but the results are consistent with larger poll samples (field narrowed to top nine polled results – and graphic adjusted accordingly):

(Methodology Extracted) The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from Thursday, December 17 through Sunday, December 20, 2015. (more…)

Facing the reality of diminished usefulness as a South Carolina splitter, Senator Lindsey Graham has announced he is “suspending” (ie. dropping out) his campaign to run for President.  He is the fourth candidate to exit the race. (Perry, Walker and Jindal prior)

Unfortunately this disrupts our previously unblemished record of successfully naming the drop-outs before they occur, RATTS!! (We thought Rand Paul was going to be next). Here’s Senator Grahams’ announcement:

With Donald Trump and Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio holding such severe polling majority positions in South Carolina the usefulness of Lindsey was essentially nil. Lindsey quitting now allows candidates Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush a little more space to gobble up some South Carolina voters. (more…)

.@JebBush: "To get praise from Vladimir Putin is not going to help Donald Trump" https://t.co/6OZtrfIwim https://t.co/6T57DyWj5G

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) December 18, 2015

“Here’s the thing, when you’re dealing with a world leader, you wonder whether or not he’s telling the truth,” Bush told reporters Monday. “I’ve never had to worry about that with Vladimir Putin. Sometimes he says things I don’t want to hear, but I know he’s always telling me the truth.”

~ George Bush 2007

(more…)

CBS coordinated with YouGov to present three “battleground state” panel polls today.  The polling methodology is rather peculiar because it’s not random sample polling, but rather targeted specifically to prior respondents of same, albeit earlier, YouGov polling.  They fill in the non-repeat respondents from other prior contacted buckets.

The downside to this panel-approach is it’s essentially like taking a focus group and tracking their trend over-time, filling in those who don’t show up for the next interview by reaching out to other focus groups to fill the void.  This type of on-line polling is not scientific and prone to flaws and/or manipulation by the interpreter of the data.

The pollster is reaching out to a specific data-set, and in order to achieve the needed total number they need to reach out to ‘known sub-sets‘ within their data-base.  In order for this approach to be useful – the integrity of the people gathering the data has to be beyond reproach.  (more…)

Not Accidental: NOTE all the Republicans who voted for the Omnibus/Tax usurpation today are endorsing / supporting @JebBush or @marcorubio

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) December 19, 2015

Have you noticed Chris Christie being elevated by the same corporate media machine previously elevating Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio ?  This is not coincidental.

The problem for the GOPe Road Map has been the dominance of Donald Trump in disrupting their initial goals to nominate Jeb Bush with 10-20% of the primary vote.

Trump, as a populist “America First” frontrunner nominee was just never anticipated in their construct.

As soon as Trump eliminated the “splitter strategy” benefit – various GOPe approaches were deployed to overcome The Donald.   However, almost all of the subsequent maneuvers failed as Trump gained a more broad coalition of support.

The GOPe campaign road map has now evolved into a concerted effort to group a non-Trump coalition, this is why no “splitter” candidate is being urged to withdraw.

(more…)

Post Debate Poll

Fox will be forced to present this poll result (full pdf below) but you can be guaranteed they will downplay it as much as possible.   The fact remains the visible support of Donald Trump with tens-of-thousands of supporters at rallies forces the corporate media into an uncomfortable position: They don’t want to admit the obvious, yet they have no choice.

Donald Trump with 39% support gains an additional 11 points since last Fox National polling and now holds more than double the next closest competitor, Cruz (18).

Here’s the “historical results” of this poll: (more…)

A new national poll from PPP released today (full pdf below) contains a significant amount of highly interesting internal data including head-to-head match ups showing Donald Trump beating each of the other GOP candidates and holding the most broad base of total electorate support.

Two key takeaways from the “top line” data are Trump gaining (w/ this polling) his largest amount of support in a single poll change (gaining 8%); and simultaneously Ben Carson in complete free-fall out of the top tier (dropping 13%), both in less than a month.

The internals also show Ted Cruz beating Marco Rubio in head-to-head matchups.  However, Donald Trump beats them both head-to-head, and in three or four-way splits.

(more…)

Fox News and Brett Baier go on offense to protect/assist Senator Marco Rubio and diminish Senator Ted Cruz – the transparency of the GOPe media agenda in this interview is obvious.

Fox has a well documented vested interest in both Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Tonight Brett Baier calls out Cruz on several issues.  Here’s a short version (longer version below):

Full Interview Below – There you can better see the set up and the framework: (more…)