(Via Morning Consult) A strong performance in last week’s Republican presidential debate has raised former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s public profile, but not nearly enough to cut into real estate mogul Donald Trump’s lead over the rest of the GOP field.

Trump takes 32 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, according to a new Morning Consult tracking poll — far ahead of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson’s 12 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 11 percent. Fiorina finishes in fourth position, at 6 percent, just ahead of Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), who clock in with 5 percent each.
[…] The Morning Consult survey polled 4,033 registered voters for an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. A subsample of 1,551 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points (link)

The Huffington Post has an article.  I’m not sure how to say this, but the article actually appears to be, well, correct.  {{ fainting }}
(Via Huffington Post) Carly Fiorina has a big problem with the truth. More specifically, she has a problem with embellishing the truth, in a manner very reminiscent of disgraced NBC anchor Brian Williams.

On Friday, conservative radio host Sean Hannity asked Fiorina to explain stories that Hewlett-Packard violated in the Iran embargo, by selling millions of dollars of computers, parts and equipment through a Dubai-based company, while she was CEO. (more…)

Here’s video of candidate Donald Trump appearing on NBC Meet The Press (Chuck Todd), and CNN’s State of the Union (Jake Tapper) from this morning. The second interview is the most pertinent to the ongoing Rovian maneuverings.
It should be noted that both CNN and NBC released “post debate” polls today. You’ll notice Chuck Todd, despite an NBC poll result, didn’t use it.
The ideological “tells” are often inherent within what is not presented.
First the Chuck Todd interview:

The second interview (Jake Tapper) is more pertinent. (more…)

The Morning Consult survey polled 504 registered voters who said they watched the Republican primary debate and that they plan to participate in their state’s Republican presidential nominating contest. Of those voters, 69 percent identified themselves as Republicans, and 28 percent called themselves independents.  The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent (link):

The four consecutive days of attacks on Donald Trump, leading up to the CNN debate, appear to have hurt Rand Paul, Scott Walker significantly; both appear to be in trouble.  Also, worth noting – candidates Pataki, Graham and Jindal see no benefit from their attack efforts.  Fiorina, Rubio, and Christie gained supporters.  Carson, Bush and Kasich stayed essentially the same. (more…)

Disclaimer: Your opinion on the debate performances are far more valid than mine.  My perspective is skewed because I’m looking through a filter of how Wall Street RNC/GOPe and DNC interests will view and perceive the debate performances.

Baseline – Going into the debate all the candidates, other than Trump, had something to gain and little to lose.  Donald Trump had everything to lose and little to gain.  With that in mind: (more…)

Now that Donald Trump has thrown a monkey wrench into the GOPe Splitter Strategy, we are able to look at their modified objectives.   Keeping in mind the overall Road Map, and the commitment of all the interested parties therein, we can now see the goal:

…If you remove Donald Trump from the current equation – Ben Carson becomes Herman Cain 2012, Ted Cruz becomes Newt Gingrich and Jeb Bush slips right back into the role of Mitt Romney, exactly as planned..

….Toward that end an understanding of a few things are needed:

1. An understanding of the National and State RNC rule changes
2. An understanding of how the primary delegate distributions fit within the plan.
3. An understanding of how the architects always planned to eliminate Cruz

All current key state polling, including the releases yesterday from Florida, showcase and confirm the viability of the GOPe Road Map “splitter strategy” as it was designed in 2014.
So lets begin first with the rule changes.
In 2014 the RNC/GOPe apparatus made modifications to the 2016 presidential primary specifically because the chosen candidate, Jeb Bush, would need more structural support in 2015/2016 than Mitt Romney 2012.
Whereas Romney’s Road Map garnered 25-30% electoral support, internal polling (2014) showed Jeb around 15-20% support.  As a consequence of Jeb’s weakness the RNC rules needed to compensate. (more…)

For those who follow the GOPe Road Map, and are fully aware of the goals therein, here’s a little something to put in the memory file.

Thanks to an enormous media push most people have seen the Carly Fiorina “faces” political ad.  However, what most people didn’t pick up on, is that the ad itself did not come from the official Fiorina campaign – it came from the Super-PAC “CarlyForAmerica“.
Federal campaign law forbids coordination between a candidate’s Super-PAC, with unlimited funding sources and/or limits on contributions, and the official campaign itself.  However, the timing of the ad when contrast against the derivative content therein reeks of campaign and Super-PAC coordination. (more…)

For two weeks we have been tracking closely the discussion, behavior, trends and analysis in several groups: the CNN team, the Salem Media team, the professional apparatus of the RNC, and the individual GOPe candidates.  An overall theme is well established to aid in predicting what will follow – more on that later.
In the interim, here’s Jake Tapper explaining, well, actually I would assert “pre-justifying”, the approach to pit the candidates against each other.   [*NOTE* Jake first made this accidental assertion of his intent at 3:05pm on September 11th]
Today Tapper discusses the goal to “pit the candidates against each other” against the backdrop of a discussion with CNN President Jeff Zucker, who apparently gave him the green light: (more…)

Donald Trump couldn’t ask for better polling results than what became evident today.  In addition to pulling away with a 32% lead, he’s extending his trend to continue pulling away – and Trump is also leading in the second choice category, which means he automatically is carrying reserve fuel to push his polling even higher.  (Full Poll pdf below)

Conversely the numbers for Wall Street, the U.S. CoC and the RNC/GOPe via Jeb Bush are devastating.   Jeb Bush is polling single digits in the 10th consecutive poll – this is completely unsustainable for the GOPe road map, and completely unacceptable for the money groups behind him.  Again, desperation abounds….
(more…)

The overall problem for the GOPe is reflected in this poll release from New Hampshire.

Jeb Bush took the “day off” from campaigning on September 2nd (ie. political code-speak for Bush met with campaign team to assess damage and strategy session). He was spotted that night (in Philly) headed to New Hampshire – We anticipated the reasoning:

FYI – Jeb back in New Hampshire tonight, amid new polling showing John Kasich has surged beyond Bush in support !! https://t.co/EpYQcITnvj

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) September 3, 2015

When you follow the nuance, you can predict the “public polls” in advance, by paying attention to the activity of the candidates. (more…)