A tale of two economic models.

Today the ‌S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in October from 51.5 in September.  A reading above a 50.0 is expanding; while anything below a 50.0 indicates contraction or lower manufacturing.

To assemble the PMI approximately 400 companies report, New Orders (30% weight), Production (25% weight), Employment (20% weight), Supplier Deliveries (15% weight) and Inventories (10% weight). Combined those metrics formulate the PMI index to highlight growth (expanded manufacturing), or contraction (declining manufacturing).

TORONTO, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in October for the first time this year as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on activity, and after inflation pressures intensified.

The ‌S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 last month from 51.5 in September, marking the first move below the 50 threshold since December. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

“Having enjoyed an uninterrupted run of solid growth throughout 2026 so far, Canada’s manufacturing sector ran out of steam in October,” Paul Smith, economics ⁠director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. “Against a backdrop of tariffs and ongoing supply-side disruption, firms reported concurrent drops in both output and new orders over the month.” (read more)

Meanwhile in the USA:

WASHINGTON DC – The ISM Manufacturing Index jumped a full point in October to 55.5, beating Wall Street expectations of 54.7 and marking the tenth consecutive month American manufacturing has been in expansion territory. This is not statistical noise. It is Trumpnomics at work.

The internals are even stronger than the headline. New orders registered 55.5. Production surged to 59.0. Factory employment remained firmly in expansion at 52.4. Inventories rose to 51.4. Every one of the five components that make up the headline ISM index is now signaling expansion. Export orders also rose to 51.2.

For perspective, throughout most of 2023 and 2024, American manufacturing languished in contraction. Factories were closing, supply chains remained offshore, and America continued surrendering strategic industrial capacity. Now the arrow is pointing sharply in the other direction. (read more)

Hopefully Commerce Secretary @howardlutnick is not throwing a political lifeline to Canadian Prime Minister @MarkJCarney, particularly as it pertains to this parasitic dependency model that underpins the Canada economy.

cc: @USTradeRep

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) November 2, 2026