Elon Musk responded to an account on the X Platform [SEE HERE] that made a good point about how Zelenskyy’s unauthorized use of Starlink commercial satellites can create a downstream issue that is not being discussed.

FilmLadd – “Analysts who have been bashing Elon Musk for days over this don’t get it. Russia has the capacity to blow up satellites in space. They proved this on November 15, 2021, by firing a PL-19 Nudol missile at an old satellite of their own.

The impact created a large debris cloud—more than 1,500 trackable fragments plus hundreds of thousands of smaller pieces. The International Space Station was forced to implement safe-haven procedures: the seven-person crew (including Russian cosmonauts) sealed hatches and sheltered in the docked Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft for several hours as the debris cloud repeatedly crossed their orbital path.

The ISS even had to perform thruster burns on multiple occasions over the following months to avoid the debris cloud orbiting the Earth.

If Russia decides that the civilian Starlink satellite network is weaponized and fair game, we risk a serious Kessler syndrome. First modeled by NASA’s Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais in 1978, it describes a scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit gets so high that collisions start producing debris faster than natural processes (mainly atmospheric drag) can remove.

Each collision creates more fragments, which raise the odds of further collisions, leading to a self-sustaining cascade, a runaway cloud of satellite debris that can make certain orbital bands increasingly hazardous.

Space could become unusable for years to centuries.

You like driving around with GPS? Starlink MUST remain a civilian entity.” [source]

Elon Musk responds:

“This is indeed one of the main reasons that Starlink must remain a civilian operation.

It can be used for infrastructure that is military, but it cannot be used for unequivocally offensive strikes that make it fair game to be struck back.

An adversary blowing up Starlink satellites would create a domino effect of destruction that would generate a vast field of debris making space unusable.” [source – Elon Musk]

This is not a far-fetched concern.  As recently as last week this issue was in the news cycle but generally not discussed too much.

Multiple media and government reports confirmed that Russia’s military satellite Kosmos‑2612 maneuvered extremely close—between roughly 26 meters and 500 meters—to the U.S.-registered commercial radar satellite ICEYE‑X36 in mid‑October 2026. This close approach is considered unprecedented and raised concerns about potential surveillance or counterspace activity.

What Happened:

  • The Russian satellite Kosmos‑2612 performed a series of deliberate orbital maneuvers to approach ICEYE‑X36, a U.S.-registered commercial radar-imaging satellite operated by ICEYE US.
  • U.S. officials described the behavior as “deliberately reckless” and consistent with rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) that could be used to inspect, shadow, or interfere with another spacecraft. RF Europe
  • Tracking firms such as LeoLabs observed the Russian satellite adjusting its orbit repeatedly to match and close in on ICEYE‑X36. Yahoo

How Close Did They Get? Different sources reported varying closest-approach distances:

  • ~26 meters (85 feet) at the modeled closest point (unconfirmed). Yahoo
  • ~500 meters (1,640 feet) according to high-confidence assessments by LeoLabs. Yahoo
  • Within 200 meters, according to some U.S. estimates. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Even the largest estimate (500 m) is considered extremely close in orbital terms.

Why It Matters:

  • ICEYE‑X36 provides synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery, valuable for military intelligence and used by Ukraine. This likely explains Russian interest. hoodline.com
  • The maneuver is considered the first known uncoordinated close approach between two active satellites in low Earth orbit where one owner did not give permission.Yahoo
  • U.S. officials warned the behavior resembles on‑orbit weapons testing or at least hostile reconnaissance. Ars Technica

Current Status:

  • After the close approach, Kosmos‑2612 began drifting away, though analysts caution it could resume proximity operations or other Russian satellites may attempt similar maneuvers. Interesting Engineering

Thankfully President Trump and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin are able to just pick up the phone and talk to each other.  They have developed a relationship that allows direct talks and immediate deconfliction.

However, if U.S. Starlink satellites are being used by Ukraine, without authorization, to target objectives deep inside Russia, a nuclear-armed power this could develop into a very serious issue.  Thus, avoid this problem becomes the issue that Elon Musk is trying to mitigate.

From an operational perspective, Russia now seemingly has a very valid claim that U.S. assets (a nuclear power) were being used to target Russia (another nuclear power). This is not a good scenario.

Zelenskyy is putting the USA in a very difficult position. Musk is essentially trying to mitigate the potential threat from Zelenskyy’s self-centered and short-sighted behavior.

As much as we have criticized him in the past, Elon Musk is the right guy with the right position on this issue.

 

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