I’m not always right.  Sometimes events change and intersections take place on the path toward the predicted outcome.  However, when ancillary events -mostly driven by human intervention in an effort to avoid what’s coming- do not cross the directional path, we arrive at the predicted destination.

At the end of May CTH shared the motive behind a series of events we should see unfold on the Twitter platform.  By the time we arrived in June, there was enough actual data to solidify a timeline {GO DEEP}. Shortly after, the New York Times published leaked revenue side documents allowing us to calculate an accurate burn rate {Go Deep} for the situation around Elon Musk.  Through this accurate financial prism, everything that Elon Musk has done lines up in sequence {Go Deep}.

Cliff Notes Version:  Musk has a deficit burn rate of around $250 to $300 million per month.  Musk runs out of working capital in Sept/Oct, depending on how quickly Yaccarino was/is able to enhance revenue.

Regardless of revenue, and because she just can’t generate it fast enough, approximately, seven weeks from now Musk has to secure another roughly $5 billion, to give himself enough breathing room to continue operations.

Musk has lost the $30 billion he put in.  The current estimates are that Twitter is now worth between $12 to $15 billion.   There is debt of $12.5 billion from the initial purchase structure still in place.  The asset is worth its debt, not much more.

With a current debt service of $100+ million per month, adding another $50 million/month ($5 billion loan) is tenuous at best. And that’s IF he can secure that investment loan.  Musk has admitted he is personally limited in leverage using Tesla.  He is approaching an inflexion point.  1 million subscribers paying $8/month is pittance ($8 million).

Recently X-Corp:  (1) Linda Yaccarino introduced the novel concept of speech that was “lawful but awful” and must be suppressed. (2) Their desire to remove the block function. (3) Restrictions on visibility, “freedom of speech, not freedom of reach.” (4) and hired back a platform censorship team.  All of these measures are designed to make “safe spaces” for advertisers to return.   In essence, they are all revenue decisions.

People inside tech, and even people inside the X-Corp organization, who initially did not think my analysis was accurate, are now starting to admit it is the most likely scenario.

This arc of directional travel is not going to change, especially with Musk needing to go back into the capital markets for more working cash.  Everything we are seeing is a result of this financial dynamic and the desperation is starting to show.

Yesterday Musk admitted they may indeed fail.  However, he is portraying himself as a victim in this – which is profoundly disingenuous.

Musk has known this critical financial flaw from the outset.  All the intellectually honest people who understand the situation, debts, obligations and the dynamics of social media revenue when contrast against the ideology of the gatekeepers, also know this.  None of this is a surprise.

Musk is getting increasingly anxious about it, and when people start to get desperate – they start to say stupid things.

Now, here’s my warning…

I am pretty certain about the prior timeline.  There’s about 7 weeks left (+/-) before the critical crisis point hits, depending on events that may slightly delay or speed up the timing.  Put his motives, intents and disposition off the table for a moment.  Accept things in their most common construct.  This situation makes Musk vulnerable.

There is only one deal, one specific version of agreement, that I can think of – that would generate the capital he needs.  An agreement to leverage his platform along with META, Insta, Alpha/Goog, etc to influence the 2024 election.  Agreeing to join that effort, more vociferously than previous, will get him the capital he needs…

…. so, watch out.

The only apolitical platform currently operating in the U.S. social media sphere is Tik Tok.   The inability of the US govt to control the platform, is a large part of the reason why U.S. govt interests on both sides want it removed and black-listed.  Pro MAGA voices have a big footprint on Tik Tok.

Repeating what I said in July:

Keep in mind, long before people realized the Dept of Homeland Security (FBI, DHS, CISA etc.) had a portal into Twitter, I was explaining how transparently obvious it was. {Go Deep – Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop} In part, the transparency of the problem is driven by CTH understanding of the costs associated with Twitter as a very unique platform in the sphere of social media. {Go Deep – Understand the Costs}

With the latest revelations we shared about the financial position of Twitter {Go Deep on FINANCIALS}, all of the moves now underway make sense.  Musk was on track to hit a date in/around October of this year where Twitter would be insolvent. If you had read those previous “Go Deep” links, you will easily see the problem.

Approximately seven weeks.

Keep your eyes open.