I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months. Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.
The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic. That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes. When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective. My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.
There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE]. On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.
[READ HERE]
The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation. The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency. Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began. Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.
The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks. However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.
I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share. However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.
I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.
I have mostly been looking at three areas in Western Russia. Kazan, Moscow and St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad). Of the three generally large metropolitan areas, St Petersburg is by far the most interesting. It’s beautiful there and the city is alive and vibrant.
In many ways you might compare Russia in 2023 to the USA in/around 1988. Life is just not complicated and far more socially engaged.
I’ll have more on this later, but if you are ever bored check out the Russian YouTubers who livestream broadcast “a day-in-the-life” type of activity. The infrastructure is in generally good repair, the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.
There are certainly negatives and the cultural dynamic of the former USSR is still evident. Technologically they are somewhat behind in some details, but the overall cohesion of their value system is something I did not fully appreciate until I started down this road of research.
I can see why the average Russian could be wide-eyed during a visit to the USA and fascinated with the overall quality of life that might be considered indulgent. However, I can also see how reciprocally the average American could be wide-eyed and smiling at the overall sense of the Russian people.
Strip out the politics, and we are all much more similar than we are different.
I am highly skeptical about sanctions taken against russia by the west.
there are three theories:
a. it was always a threat the west KNEW it could never actually maintain…just too many players. So it’s optics.
b. this energy war has had the effect (if perhaps even the INTENTION) to drive energy markets to scarcity…thus major energy companies can actually produce less (less cost) and still maintain ever higher profit margins…(and also concentrate market power in many regions, and in many cases, a complete shift in how they supply the markets. example: venture LNG right here at home…promised major global commercial exports of massive amounts of LNG to several international buyers and has yet to actually deliver those contracts…meanwhile, it has exported and sold over 177 SHIPMENTS of LNG to “pre-commercial” contracts that command a fair higher than market valuation!
c. the new green deal hit peak…there is no room left to manuever the fraud. Russia still sells and continued to sell quite a bit of energy to europe…but not in the usual manner to avoid the obvious contradictions that european market manipulators and politicos do not really want to discuss. (and meanwhile the price gouging is the rule, so there is still that benefit that allows the dubious new green energies competitiveness…artificially..corruptly…but everyone knows that new green energy is magnitudes of order more expensive…front and back end…and is unreliable as we all know)
just my opinion
the sooner this war is over…mark that…THE SOONER THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE, the sooner we can have policies that solve the energy war…and hopefully, that makes the war in ukraine, unsustainable!
God Bless America
Everything runs on energy. Russia is 100% self sufficient in all forms of energy, hydro, coal, oil, gas, and nuclear. That is a major reason sanctions are not working.
Having lived and worked in Russia in 1983, I am not surprised by anything Sundance is now learning about Russia. To think Russia somehow doesn’t have a culture nor a social fabric is plain crazy. They are exactly like us in every way!
The first rule of war is; do not March on Moscow. So is the second and third rule of war. Nobody has ever won a land war in Russia! Joe Biden will soon be adding his name to Napoleon and Hitler, of those who have failed.
The Russians do not surrender. They wait for winter.
4 th rule. Don’t Poke the Bear!
It is only the arrogant, prideful and stupid, that do such foolish things.
Biden has the crazed narcissism of Napoleon and Hitler, but he is at least 1 hat size smaller.
It’s not Russians you have to be afraid of. The problem of “White Supremacists” is real and a lot closer than you think.
Chris Wray is 100% correct..you need to be very afraid!
https://youtube.com/shorts/5Bq8CzoIxT0?feature=share
That old coot Yeltsin refused to sign up for the IMF shakedown and brought in Putin as has his successor, who also knew better to keep away from the IMF and western ways of debt and dump.
Keeping your nation out of debt and sovereign kind of is a good policy. Nations will be knocking at Putins door wanting to come back once this is all over.
This is something I wrote a friend about Russian economic conditions in the 1990’s under Yeltsin. I cobbled together some information from book and online sources – in case it would be of interest to anyone. One book source I used is The Grand Deception: The Browder Hoax by Alex Krainer.
Over the 1990’s, under a plan developed by Harvard University and with the help of a number of Western advisors, the economy moved from socialism to capitalism. The plan was perhaps well-intentioned, but flawed and allowed western companies, individuals, banks like the IMF, and Harvard itself to essentially plunder Russia. For example, a shipping company was bought by western interests for $1 billion when the 20 ships owned by the company were worth $1 billion each. Western and Russian businessmen made enormous profits often with the backing of western companies. Corruption was rampant. Food production collapsed. Yeltsin had borrowed money by issuing 3-month ruble Treasury notes that paid 30% interest which quickly rose to 290% interest. There was a feeding frenzy of economic chaos. The Russian people suffered with inflation at 2700% and middle class savings destroyed.
Violent crime increased drastically. Alcoholism soared and suicide rates doubled. Epidemics of curable diseases like measles, diphtheria, tuberculosis raged. Cancer and heart disease soared. Life expectancy for males dropped from 69 to 57 years. Abortions skyrocketed and birth rates collapsed (8.2 births per 1000). Death rates increased by 60%, something one would only see in war. But these are just statistics. The stories of the human suffering breaks one’s heart: a child sitting at her desk through recess because she was dazed with hunger, a mother fainting as she tried to cook food for her children because she was doing without food for herself, a man ashamed because he stole a loaf of bread after not eating for two days, constant dreams about apples, the sense of humiliation.
Added to the economic collapse was the rise of radical Islamic terrorist groups, some backed by US money and weapons. The Deputy Director of the CIA’s National Council on Intelligence, Graham E. Fuller, explicitly stated that their objective was to use Islamic extremists to “destabilize what remains of Russian power”. The purpose was to “balkanize” Russia into smaller states. They almost succeeded in Dagestan. Extremists seized the territory of several towns and proclaimed the independence of the Islamic State of Dagestan and declared war on “Russian occupying forces”. The Russian military was already in disarray and it looked like a Russian defeat would result. This crisis was the event that forced Yeltsin to replace the current prime minister and name an unknown bureaucrat as prime minister, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, who soon surprisingly got control of the situation in Dagestan.
When I was active duty, my base hosted some Russian pilots and crews back in the 90s. A couple of pilots hosted them for get togethers at their houses.
They were very friendly, but completely skeptical that an average American family had such lavish homes and vehicles.
One even suggested the whole city was staged. It made me wonder if Russia, at some point, had literal potemkin villages, like something from hollywood.
They also remarked how Americans smiled at everyone, even strangers. They said we seemed naive. Looking back, I realize we were.
Well….that is where the term Potemkin Village
came from…..Russia.
Is it just myth -or really true
I have no idea. But it is a
great story ☺️
Lol yes, I knew the term was from Russia. It was strange hearing a Russian question whether we were guilty of it.
Remember, Potemkin had his villages in Ukraine to show Catherine what he was doing, but in the end he did defeat the Turks to establish Novo Rossiya (with the help of former American naval commander John Paul Jones!) The Turks had ruled over the Crimean Khanate that descended from the Golden Horde.
Perhaps he did, perhaps he didn’t. History is a wonderful, and sometimes colorful, thing.
Perhaps we are just witnessing the Russian version of MAGA!
Who are the Tatars? | Largest ethnic minority in Russia – YouTube
👆👆 Eli from Russia
This is young lady who has great videos
where she tours different parts of Russia.
She is Tatar-and a red head. Who would
have thought there are red headed Tatars?
There are actually something like
190 ethnic groups in Russia.
When you think of the Russian government
having to deal with such a diverse population
combined with such a large land mass….
I have much respect for that!
Intersectional grievance politics worked so effectively to divide and weaken the west, so they naturally assumed the same would happen when deployed against Russia.
It was a ridiculous miscalculation.
I notice they do not hyphenate who they
are like many here do.
And Russia has about
190 different ethnic groups.
Example is that they put
Russian first.
Russian Tatar, etc.
Russia always comes first.
Here the emphasis is
Black – American
Hispanic – American
American comes last.
Shows the mindset.
The hyphenated BS has always ticked me off. Just another way to destroy our country from within. Insidious.
Russia doesn’t allow massive migration of low IQ degenerates or has large population of out-of-control Africans.
Ethnic Great Russians comprise 85% of the the citizens of their federation. The numerous small ethnicities comprise the other 15%. There is a shared core overlap in the mores and cultural values of their ethnicities because they all coevolved together on the steppe. Moreover, the vast majority of their ethnic groups are essentially the same race. Even the Muslim Chechens are ‘white’, being literally Caucasians from the Caucasus. Their ‘diversity’ is not a haphazard synthetic creation serving cheap-labor corporatism and Marxist anti-white hatred, like America’s.
Russia is not an example of ‘diversity is a strength’ but an example that moderate amounts of diversity CAN be well managed with intelligent and moral leadership, as long as a country has a strong demographic core.
_______________________
Putin, speech before Duma
“In Russia live Russians. Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants to live in Russia, to work and eat in Russia, should speak Russian, and should respect the Russian laws. If they prefer Sharia Law, then we advise them to go to those places where that’s the state law. Russia does not need minorities. Minorities need Russia, and we will not grant them special privileges, or try to change our laws to fit their desires, no matter how loud they yell ‘discrimination’. We better learn from the suicides of America, England, Holland and France, if we are to survive as a nation.
The Russian customs and traditions are not compatible with the lack of culture or the primitive ways of most minorities. When this honourable legislative body thinks of creating new laws, it should have in mind the national interest first, observing that the minorities are not Russians.”
… well-deserved standing ovation follows …
check out https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russias-cbdc-exploring-the-truth
I read that article earlier tonight.
Great article.!
Thank you
Watch gloom turn to joy in this 7-year-old flashmob video in a Kaliningrad supermarket –
Beautiful
cross posted at https://freedomaustralia.freeforums.net/thread/3825/western-sanctions-effect-on-russia
The Russians With Attitude Twitter account has been invaluable during this conflict. Their podcast and interactions on Twitter showed them to be decent, humble people … just like the average Russian. I knew early on the Russians were the good guys in this Nato proxy-war.
Bottom line: If Obama, Hillary and the Bidens are involved, I am cheering for the other side.
The sanction were the best thing that could have happened to Russia. They are now forced to do it all on their own and they are finding out they don’t need the west. This is only making them stronger.
Other countries watch what is happening and see how Russia is not only surviving Sanctions-but thriving.
Domino effect and Courage is Contagious.
I always find the issue of GDP interesting when you are comparing economies. For example, much of the US GDP attaches to defense spending. When you compare the US with Russia, you find that a similar submarine, for example, costs about 10x as much to produce in the US, as it does in Russia. Yet, these costs are reflected in GDP. Regarding the comparison of the Russian economy to Germany, say, in 2020, prior to Russia’s extraction from western finance. Would Germany have been able to survive as well as Russia, if it had been put in the same situation? My answer would be a resounding NO.
Vast amount of corruption in the West.
I found this article interesting, though not surprising.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/08/kachelman-punishing-political-enemies-inevitable-retribution/
Thanks for the link. It was an interesting article. Frankly, while this situation has never so blatantly occurred in the short lifespan of the US, it is not unusual historically. Peasants vs kings, ruling entities vs opposition, etc. I suppose the point is that the powerful don’t hold on to their power forever. It’s interesting to note, however, IMHO, the ‘schedule’ for all of this in the US, has been particularly rushed, based upon the ruling entities seeing the unrest in the population that caused the Trump election in 2016. The amount of damage that the ‘Biden administration’ has done since that corrupt 2020 election, is truly mind boggling.
Re Germany, sanctions, ect.
Nord Stream was blown up less than a year ago. Now Germany is in a recession and in the midst of rapid de-industrialization. It did not take much to bring Europe’s industrial power house down
The USA is falling behind China in GDP. Inflation is red hot, Banks failing, real estate imploding, society in our major cities on the verge of collapse. The future is not looking bright in the “Land of Milk and Honey”
While Russia is prospering and has overtaken Germany for the 5th place in world GDP, and just beginning to unleash its industrial might on the world. Happy, patriotic people dance in the market, and the streets.
The sanctions are working out well………. For Russia.
Russia, shed of its Soviet style kleptocracy, is not a natural enemy of the United States and Putin, much to the disappointment of western scholars, is not a communist as they would have you think. Strongman? Yes. Will he leave an effective form of government after he walks off the stage? Probably not, but he will have put his nation on a much stronger and vibrant economic footing. And that’s where it all starts. Putin no more wants to gobble up the entire Ukraine than we want to annex Haiti. As a not so great secretary of defense once said, “ If you break it, you own it.” Putin does not want anything to do with the ownership of the greater Ukraine. Frankly, who would?
The only country that lusts after the corrupt , degenerate, rump of Europe is the USA.
Russia’s economy doesn’t require the US.
Making Russia great again.
Sanctions by the globalists are the inverse of Trump MAGA economic policies. The sanctions are causing Russia to become self sufficient. The globalist lie that self-contained economies cannot thrive is coming apart.
In a similar way, MAGA policies were always intended to put Americans first, instead of dependent on foreigners and having our wealth pillaged by multinationals. By sanctioning globalists – China tariffs, domestic energy, exiting multilateral trade scams – Americans prospered.
In fact, we were told Trump’s policies would wreck the economy the way sanctions were supposed to wreck Russia’s. Except the recession, inflation, etc never happened. In fact, quite the opposite!
Had Trump succeeded on illegal immigration, the results would have been even better.
Sanctions don’t work when they use anything but US currency. That’s all you need to know.
Also, Putin has done what Trump was doing for the US — to make the country self-reliant. How can you control the world when the countries control themselves and are not reliant on others? You can’t. To be dependent is to be controlled.
The sanctions punished the oligarchs which are the Russian equivalent of our Deep State. The economic resurgence in Russia has been due to the economic freedom the Russian people are experiencing much like America in the 1950’s. The increased economic well being of the general population increases their national pride. Putin’s internal enemies are not the general population but from those who are losing the economic power. Sound familiar?
I remember the good old days when in 1991 Metallica performed in Moscow.
Wish I’d gone to that. Had a chance, I’ll always regret not taking it.
Imagine a United States begetting Peace in the World. Russia and the U.S.A have a long, long, path to reconciliation, but someone must make the first step.
Without Vicki Nuland and Biden’s handlers, several hundred thousand young Ukrainians would still have a future.
The fact they are self sufficient is key. Russia first policy has value and sustainability, and this shines more light on the destroy MAGA concept and also explains why the U.S. baited Russia into a never ending war with Ukraine.
The elites are very content to kill millions of people for there personal gains with war after war after war.
This is what I’ve been talking about for a long time, and one of the things that initially drew me to consider that bigmouth builder from Queens in a new light.
I have always wondered why those of us who considered that maybe, just maybe, a country as big as the United States with as many resources, didn’t have to worry about what the rest of the world was doing, and just worry about ourselves.
That worldview would always be shot down with one word- isolationism.
Not wanting to preemptively invade another country, concerns about all our scrap metal going to a Communist country, having a wide open southern border, if you thought that way you were an isolationist.
How did we know this isolationism is so bad, never having tried it?
What we did here in America could be called kiling the goose that laid the golden egg.
Little known fact about Russia?
It was founded by the Vikings, the Romanovs (Rurik Dynasty), who ruled Russia for 300 years.
It is my belief that that is what started the distrust between Russia and Europe.
I have sensed for some time that Putin’s Russia is progressing nicely in the sense of the well-being of the Russian people. They have moved to a gold standard monetary system, their Eastern Orthodox Christianity is revived, and their economy is on track. Interestingly, there is presently a pro-Russian feature on Facebook with pictures of their beautiful cities and countryside.
“the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.”
What’s the fertility rate in Russia? Aren’t there more deaths per year than births?
As someone who was enthralled with the Miracle on Ice, one of my favorite movies is Miracle with Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks.
When a friend loaned me some bootlegged DVDs, there was a movie about the Soviet Red Army team defeating the NHL All-Stars in the Canada Cup. The plot of the movie was clearly ripped off from Miracle, and I imagine for a Russian audience, would cause the same swelling of national pride.
Another movie I recently watched with my son was Fists of Fury with Bruce Lee. Several times in the movie Japanese characters referred to China as the “Sick Man of Asia.” You could tell this was a real sore spot for Lee and the writers of the movie, and that phrase must have stuck with the Chinese people and CCP for generations.
President Trump, the one who the media constantly derides as bigoted and xenophobic, understands national pride unlike any politician in our lifetime. Even though he had to put Kim Jong Un in his place to open negotiations, in the end he showed Kim what the US could do to bring his nation into the 21st century and allow it to shine on the world stage. He has to be one of the most empathetic and selfless individuals ever to aspire to the office of US president.
So some progressive sites I follow commenters suggest a CT that the purpose of sanctions is to cripple the EU in favor of the US (progs generally view post-Brexit UK a non-player).
Kaliningrad, as the home of the Baltic Fleet is amongst the privileged, so how does it go in smaller towns out in a “medvezhii ugol” (bearish corner). Have a look.
Russian TYPICAL (Provincial) Supermarket Tour: Pyaterochka – YouTube
What is ignored in this piece is the prevailing political conditions in Russia. Prison sentences are handed out for saying the word”war” or just for holding up a blank piece of paper.The opposition leader is in prison and just had his sentence extended by nineteen years. Patriot leader Girkin ( Strelkov) the Hero of Russia for his work in the Chechen wars and who was lauded as the instigator of the Russian spring was arrested for criticising Putin and is set for trial . Two days ago Kagarlitsky an old communist supporter was arrested. The retirement age has been raised by two years. The FSB actively assassinated Donetsk patriot commanders and replaced them with Moscow gangsters and on and on. The Kremlin is slipping back into the old Stalinist ways, eating it’s own. I have also seen nice videos of leafy and friendly suburbs and cities, mostly these are the exception , I have also seen videos of the smaller towns and cities and many are very ugly , bleak and filled with rust belt industries and decaying infrastructure , it is a mixed bag .
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/the-kremlin-lichocracy-claims-yet?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
This is Solovyov , ( the second person in the clip) he is the most watched media person in the Russian media. His political show is routinely watched by sixty million Russians. This is normal and accepted political commentary in Russia.
The Ruble has lost something like 36% of its value against the Dollar and Euro in the last 6 months. See Joe Blogs on YouTube –
Putin quotes Milton Friedman in relation to energy price caps (freerepublic.com)
Everything about this war hurts the West and America. Busted budgets. Ammo shortages. BRICS. Loss of currency status. China/Russia alliance.
A Proxy War on Russia–that FUNCTIONS as a Proxy War on America.
Wake up and smell the Barry.