For those who have been following closely, the economic data releases over the past several months have been almost impossible to reconcile from a Main Street perspective. Additionally, the scale of inflation is skewing everything that stems from dollar valuation.
CTH is certain the fourth quarter GDP statistic (+6.9%) is useless and was an outcome of several flawed metrics: (1) the import data was misrepresented and not accurately deducted (supply chain issue); (2) the value of building inventories was over calculated as an outcome of inflation; and (3) the value of all economic activity was subsequently skewed because the economic outputs (goods and services) were recorded at higher prices.
It has been our estimation that Main Street economic activity was substantially less than the data discussed by financial pundits.
Our review also sees the employment situation on Main Street as considerably less optimistic than claimed. Bolstering that point, in a very weird and structured preview from the White House, spokesperson Jen Psaki made an odd statement today. WATCH (14:35 prompted):
Psaki is prepositioning a narrative that employment data in January will be lower than expectations, perhaps considerably lower, as a result of “workers calling out sick” from COVID, ie. the omicron variant, during the time when employment polling was conducted. That is a very unusual proactive narrative.
Those talking points would not get into the briefing material if there wasn’t a person highly concerned in the economic circle to put them there. Quite frankly, this is a talking point the White House spokesperson would never have in their briefing book if there wasn’t an advanced notification of their need for it.
Someone knows something.
Given the nature of how heavily manipulated the government institutions are, there’s a strong likelihood the Bureau of Labor and Statistics have been surprised by their employment polling results. That internal tremor, a concern amid the political tribe, is then conveyed to someone, who then relays the warning to the White House economic team…. and that’s how Psaki gets the briefing material.
In the background of this unusually proactive economic and employment notation, the Atlanta FED recently released their forward-looking estimation [DATA HERE] of the first quarter GDP. Keeping in mind the official 4th quarter result was +6.9%, the Atlanta Fed is saying the first quarter of 2022 looks like 0.1%.
[DATA SOURCE – Graphic Source]
The economy of the United States doesn’t go, heck, cannot go, from 7% to ZERO in one quarter without some massive dynamic, like closing down the economy…..
Unless….
Unless, the 6.9% was manufactured horsepucky from the outset.
The economy doesn’t go from 6.9% growth in December to ZERO growth a few days later without something substantive happening in the background. My guess is the inventory buildup, cited by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in December, was the result of a massive drop in demand that took place in the three previous months.
The inventory and inflation driven inventory evaluation that helped inflate the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, was not the result of the supply chain coming back to normal. I will bet a donut the inventory buildup was specifically because demand collapsed.
My view of that situation is supported by the historic drop in productivity that was noted in the last half of 2021. The federal spending, and the federal subsidies for businesses and corporations to retain employees, ran past the period where payrolls would have naturally contracted due to the drop in demand.
If I am correct, the employment situation was artificially influenced, because interventionist COVID spending/bailouts allowed payrolls to be covered, and employees to remain on the payroll register, during a time when they should have been dropped if natural sales/profits were responsible for filling the payroll accounts of companies. This would explain the macro drop in productivity while macro employment was retained.
The natural outcome of that viewpoint is…. When the federal deposits into the private sector payroll accounts dry up, employers eventually drop employees.
That rather dramatic scenario is enough to trigger the BLS to freak out when they did the payroll polling.
Just a hunch… We’ll find out on Friday.
Water boarding with lies.
What are you going to believe? Me or your own eyes?
J R Ewing
My wallet … it’s screaming with pain.
…pokes head from under rock… “Russia?!?”
They can’t prop up this House of Turds forever-
They’ll give it there best “college: effort though.
The Media is giving it their best shot though
Little Red Lying Hood.
I saw someone on Twitter today referring to Psaki as “Chucky”.
She is a scary guy.
Is this Chucky??
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Winner winner chicken bones for dinner
If you tell a lie often enough, the sheeple start believing it
Its INDOCTRINATION
because they only get fed from the biden machine. they look for biden to say “i got caught red handed” and if he doesnt say that they think he is good.
Politics is about lying….and ‘not’ being held accountable…..see..Adam Schiff…….
And this Friday they will just lie again. Odumbo was famous for that. Every month they would come out with a number and then the next month that number was always revised downward.
That was his (Obama’s) magic wand.
AKA “The Obama Touch”
And it was always “unexpected”…and was ALWAYS revised even further down the next month, which was never publicized…the opposite was true with President Trump, in that every GOOD number was “unexpected” and then always got revised even higher, which, of course, was also never publicized!
Like Sundance says, once you SEE the strings….
Always with the downward revisions (quietly published to no fanfare). I asked this question when Sundance raised a flag on the 4th Qtr GDP numbers being bolstered by missing import data. None of their reports are believable at this point; I assume all data is manipulated and/or misrepresented to fit a desired narrative. Trust none of it.
Meanwhile
Black athletes are greeted in China by a crowd using the “N” word
Enjoy your Martin Luther King day… pic.twitter.com/v8B91eJ5Ki
— Charles R. Smith (@softwarnet) January 17, 2022
Le Braun says it’s OK. They mean it in a loving way.
He said they can call him whatever they want to, for $100,000,000 per year.
Maybe it’s just me, but I would never put up with that crap for any amount of $$.
These black athletes must realize that they’ve left any dignity they ever had back in the USA – the country that according to them is so racists, so detestable, that they can’t stand for their own National Anthem. Can you imagine something like that ever happening anywhere in the United States? What disgusting people – ALL of them – the people getting off the bus and the people shouting slurs. If these athletes ever imagined what slavery must feel like – they know now.
‘If these athletes ever imagined what slavery must feel like – they know now.’
I beg your pardon, but their situation has nothing, NOTHING in common with slavery! They are free people, very highly paid, idolized, and most of all – they put up with this b.s. by their own choice. They are free to walk away any time they please. They choose not to, and that’s also a hallmark of freedom.
What most of them are, though, is spoiled, rotten, entitled, often immoral, dumb and uneducated, liberal-coddled victim-status-obsessed racists.
Slaves to the Almighty dollar. That’s still slavery in my book.
Wow!!
Its called “Chicom Supremacy” its REAL, pervasive and government sanctioned.
The crowds SHOULD have chanted two words, the first being “House”, as these athletes are selling out, for big bucks and gift certificates for organ transplants, for them or their familily.
With a million soul live organ donor bank, “step right up, no waiting!”
I am confident this is a perk extended to CCP-USA members, no doubt Pelosi has had at least one Liver transplant,…
…and multiple eyebrow transplants!
You beat me to it, John.
It’s probably the only thing they can vent/shout that their govt allows.
to match with the forecast of narrative engineering being needed. When i watch the news – sometimes the lib fake news – I have noticed them interviewing Doctors in the East – and the Drs saying – Omnicron was catastophic to the hospitals and we hope the new variant coming isnt as bad ( complete insanity talk – from people that know better).
meaning
But thats a 1 time deal to tell the public they are GREAT.
the first quarter as your point out as 0.1% GDP cannot be fixed due to the bulleted trickery above. So they need something to BLAMECAST – and the thing that worked in 2020 was the virus (for elections, and control of the GDP)
everything indicates a Variant news engineering campaign.
I think the 6.9% number in December was a desperate, manipulated attempt to deflect from what everyone knows is really happening and the January numbers are so bad they simply cannot make things up for second month… based on this clip, they know the numbers on Friday are going to be absolutely awful and they are attempting to create a narrative to explain them.
The wheels are off and they’re not going to be able to hide it much longer, IMHO, even with the media running constant interference for them.
“But, but they said it was ‘transient’,….what HAPPENED?”
THEY LIED!
How many more will finally cut thru their own denial, and red pill, as the reality moves farther and farther from the fake narrative?
Not enough, not yet anyway. Sadly I add.
I have been thinking that for the last 9 months, but it seems like we are more likely to suffer a long slow slide into the abyss. I would prefer for the STHTF. Let’s get it on and see who is left standing. Then we can rebuild with our rightful leader, Donald J Trump.
I think the vast majority of people have no clue what’s happening, wouldn’t know or understand basic economics, and don’t care. They’re in for hell on earth when this sh*tshow really gets started.
I thought the 6.9% was fake since there were also reports of the “disappointing” Christmas totals….
“…Unless, the 6.9% was manufactured horsepucky from the outset.”
Well, the CIA and the DOD aren’t the only ones that manufacture horsepucky.
At least the BLS manufactured horsepucky doesn’t get us into wars. So there is that in their defense anyway.
Well, indirectly I think it could get us into wars (e.g., war with Russia over Ukraine) to “distract”?
Trump’s fault./s
Psychiatrist: “Ms. Psaki, you are absolutely insane.”
Psaki: “No way, I want a second opinion.”
Psychiatrist: “Okay, you’re ugly, too….”
she is Sanjay Gupta. a stupid cheerleader, that if questioned on a “friendly” network they cry cause ‘they thought they were being good by lying to us, and it wasnt really about the truth’
when joe rogan made Gupta cry…..
Yes! That was so great watching Sanjay Gupta with an expression on his face of “oh how am I gonna to explain this to Jeff . . . he’s gonna rake me over the coalskies”
And Evil
An interesting overlay is of a video I watched today. I guy with a You Tube channel where he talks about his real estate investing is building his dream home in Idaho.
Today he posted a video about how he’s gone PCR budget due to Covid delays. He said he needed to by hardwood trim in order to get it. They order custom MDF trim back in September and it hasn’t been made. The company said they don’t know when or if they’ll get to it. He’s said they’ve tried many places that make custom trim and no one can do it. A lot have stopped taking orders.
Very weird that some demand isn’t moving production.
His channel is “Chandler David Smith” if you’re interested in watching it.
Will check it out, thanks !!!
All the demand in the World will not move production, if you can’t get what you need, to make the product.
MDF trim is “medium density fiberboard (hence “MDF”) which is not exactly like particle board, its made with sawdust and glue, much denser than particle board.
Anyway, then it needs to have wood veneer steamed and glued to it.
If they can’get the MDF, or the veneer, or the glue, ir the parts for the machinery for the various processes, OR skilled personelle to run the machines (this is where MANDATES kick in) than it doesn’t matter how many orders, or at WHAT price, the orders just stack up, unfilled.
The more ingredients, and steps in the process, from raw material to finished product, in consumers hand, the more potential for one or more breakdowns in the system.
Can have ALL the other ingredients, but if you can’t get PACKAGING, appropriate TO the product, nothing moves.
Globalism and Just In Time, was inevitably going to lead to this, eventually.
And even if you can make product, if there are no trucks, it just sits.
Atlas Shrugged.
Exactly, there’s demand but no one can produce anything. It’s just weird in my opinion. Who’s holding up the beginning of raw material production preventing the world from moving on?
China.
This has been coming to a head for a while now, at least since the beginning of the plandemic. They lock down their own ports, they hold empty containers, they buy out all the natural supplies and food and farming supplies they can get their hands on, they stop exports of a lot of manufacturing and farming staples that the world depends on… and voila, the world grinds to a halt. This has been a pattern unfolding for at least the last 18 months, and there are very few people talking about it.
The Ice Age Farmer has a very good running commentary on this topic on his telegram channel. Highly recommend to anyone who wants to see what’s going on and what’s about to happen worldwide, and how it relates to the ‘farm to fork’, ‘zero-carbon’ WEF agenda.
I don’t think it has sunk in the power of Trucks and truck drivers when organized against an injustice. The Politicians have power by “words”. They make their own rules and laws by “words”.
Trucks and truckers have what people need (Things). “Words” will only go so far as long as the People have “Things”. However, once People are deprived of what makes their lives less than the way they want to live it and know they can live it. The dynamics change and Words become shallow by comparison. This is where we are rapidly heading.
Did anyone in the press corpse mention that calling in sick is not resigning or termination from employment? Anyone of our betters mention that detail to Psucky?
Haha, I know! I thought that, too!
It’s like a teacher saying “my enrollment is only three students in my class this semester” if most of her students had one sick day.
It was the most ridiculous explanation, wasn’t it? Who would even buy that?
Hint: No one is buying it.
We may be in deeper doo doo than we imagined could happen in one year’s time.
#FJB
Yeah, that was a crazy attempt to pretend that somehow the awful numbers they know are coming don’t mean what everyone with a functioning brain KNOWS what they mean…
Peter Navarro has been predicting stagflation:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-20-forecast-cloudy-with-a-100-chance/id1598965518?i=1000548883325
Peter Navarro just may have been The Donalds best pick.
The only fully LOYAL person in the whole administration.
I think Stephen Miller was loyal.
Can you imagine if we had a 1000 Navarros working for us in the government
It’s a toss-up between him and Stephen Miller for that honor!
And Rick Grenne
Wilber Ross was a bad ass as well. I thought the team of Ross, Navarro and Mnuchin was outstanding. in the 2016 campaign President Trump often talked about his “killers”. I think this was his team of “killers”.
Imagine if the resident had people 1/2 as competent.
Yes, and without the crazy…
don’t forget Robert Lighthizer, the trade wolverine that had the NAFTA clowns shaking in their boots…
Every day for these guys, it is make up a lie day…………
They would not have hot even this far without a complicit media and a corrupt DC political class. These people do not like ordinary Americans and they should be approached with that in mind.
Make that, workers calling in sick because of completely bogus PCR tests, taken under completely bogus mandates, as “ordered” by a completely bogus White House regime.
Just as you cannot trust BLS statistics, you can’t trust NIAID/NIH “science”, FBI to follow the constitution, DOJ to seek equality before the law, etc, etc, etc.
You can ignore reality but you can’t ignore the effects of ignoring reality.
Exactly 💯
Could also be the Great Resignation continues thanks to the SCOTUS letting the Biden administration get away with the CMS mandate. My Behavioral Health employer is still hanging that over our heads since September 2021. Not a coincidence.
What kind of donut 🍩 are we betting?
My fav is a chocolate cake donut, topped with chocolate icing, and sprinkles.
Would that be chocolate sprinkles also?
It is useless to try and rely on Pundits and “talking heads for anything related to financial, economics and Wall Street stock. market. They are nothing but the “They said” crowd. How many times do you have people tell you “They said”?
Sincerely curious, how does demand drop so hard, while there is also such inflation?
If demand were higher, inflation would be even higher too, right?
doesnt sell as much – and calls it low demand.
buttiggeg says no more ships – spread your supply across all 50 states and call it less demand.
Demand drops when prices get too high. If rib eye steaks go to $25 per pound, how many would you buy?
I do not think China is stockpiling record amounts of grain merely on a whim.
I am thinking that the CCP knows something in this context.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices
https://watchers.news/2022/01/14/china-stockpiling-food-historically-high-levels/
Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We’re Being Told
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/farming-insider-warns-coming-food-shortages-are-going-be-far-worse-were-being-told
^^^THIS^^^
Between labor shortages, fertilizer shortages, weather issues, locusts, volcanic activity, and being in a Grand Solar Minimum (mini ice age), millions will starve to death this year, and even more the following year. Xi the Pooh is just ensuring his people will eat so they don’t turn on him.
Lol….you sound like FJB
Last I checked being out sick for a few days doesn’t make you unemployed.
Psaki has to feel like dirt everyday having to push this kind of garbage at a public that isn’t fooled.
Psaki is the typical Libtard who believe and live in a World lacking sanity. Let’s face it, they would no be in their position if in fact, they were sane. It is only in the halls of insanity they can function. We see it as lies. They see it as affective expedience.
A) Behavior which clearly shows a person has no contact with reality.
B) Behavior which shows no recognition or acceptance for negative consequences of their actions
C) Behavior which consistently results in negative consequences for self and others.
Put together, a pretty good definition for insanity, and yes you can add “Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.
Not just Psaki, but the whole crowd, in and our of government, are INSANE.
She’s comfortable in the pigpen 🐖 with all the other hogs
This is in her wheelhouse to be on the cutting edge of Propaganda and Mass Psychosis media and information manipulation.
She’s obviously liking 👍the power 🔋 trip
When they realised the data coming was going to be horrible, they went to a braintrust they inherited from Obummer; the guys and gals that came up with “the Internet video storu”,…cause it worked so great.
They racked their brain, and came up with this doozy.
Even Psaki was initially skeptical anyone would buy it, till they reminded her it was the,WH press corp, which they jokingly refer to as “Mikey”.
From the old Life ceral ad; “Lets get Mikey to eat it!”
“Yeah, he’ll swallow ANYTHING!”
Wyatt,
If reporters wanted to doublecheck Psaki’s statement, they would simply need to go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. In order to determine whether a household member is employed, the BLS asks:
Any worker who is temporarily absent due to illness is *not* considered to be unemployed.
Once you see it cannot be unseen, once you lie you’re a branded liar for life (demonrats) are Traitors.
6.9% vs. .1%. That’s a 700x’s difference.
Anywhere in your life that you can’t notice something is 700x greater or 700x less than expected?
“I made $700 last month, and $1 this month, and that’s normal.” according to the gov.
55 years old and I’ve NEVER seen this kind of bull coming from the economic report issued by the US gov. Nothing even close.
They’re just making shit up now. That will not work and will result in pain this country has never seen before. Worse than the depression.
I am reminded of the 4th comment (on page 2) of Sundances previous post…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/01/27/bea-release-fourth-quarter-gdp-grew-6-9-percent-or-did-it/#comments
Specifically, the last sentence of the comment by, Hitchhiker.
…
Hitchhiker
January 27, 2022 5:26 pm
“The fourth quarter result was an increase of 6.9 percent over the prior quarter.”
Sorry, it was not. In the fourth quarter real GDP grew at a 6.9% annualized rate. Does not harm the point you make which is highly valid imo. Actual total year 2021 real GDP grew at 5.7% according to the release while nominal or current dollar value numbers were 14% for the quarter and 10% for 2021.
So an actual inflation rate at 10% for the year would make real GDP equal to zero, any higher inflation number would make it negative.
… 🤔
SD ⬆️
“The economy of the United States doesn’t go, heck, cannot go, from 7% to ZERO in one quarter without some massive dynamic, like closing down the economy…..
Unless….
…Unless, the 6.9% was manufactured horsepucky from the outset.”
Has the United States ever had a negative GDP?
We are seeing what a depression looks like when it happens during a welfare state era.
Not a lot of inner city types that can grow a depression garden, is there?
Even if someone tried, it would be stolen or destroyed immediately.
Enjoy those sawdust pancakes.
AOC didn’t even know vegetables grew in dirt!!!
Last month Joy Reid left MSNBC and today Rachel Maddow announced she is taking a hiatus for a few weeks to make a movie.
It looks like MSNBC is dumping its expensive inventory because demand for fake news had dropped drastically.
They are remaking the Russians Are Coming!!!
Maddow has one line in the whole film, starring as the telephone switchboard operator, here:
They are just “lowering expectations”,…or perhaps the rats arecleaving the sinking ship?
The BIG one is coming, again – sigh. Wall Street supported politicians are persona-non-Grata in my book. They never look out for us, the USA taxpayers, that keeps this whole world control scheme/governance going.
It’s going to be really interesting this time, with all the millennial voters that have not seen one of these before. I’ve been saving a lot of money since my first one in 1984. Took me 10 years to pay my credit card debt that time.
I’m good, but I will have to help my kids – sigh. It’s always wash-rinse-repeat.
Thank you, Sundance!
The BEST!!
Last I checked “workers calling out sick” does not constitute Job Loss. I’m pretty sure that’s not how it works, as much as the Biden Regime would like it.
My goodness their manipulation and dishonesty of the economy is dangerous.
Her stuttering and stammering is a tell. As is her constant looking down to affirm the BS she must fabricate.
um um uh uh um
literally the first thing one learns to not do when speaking in public
Last time I checked, you didn’t lose your job for calling in sick (unless you do it to often!). This is just an ugly regime slapping as much lipstick as they can on their ugly economy.
Insert pic of Biden, ‘I did that’ sticker
Unbelievably dishonest and stupid statement. Proof that they know their supporters are hopelessly stupid and the media is hopelessly dishonest. Will the NY Times economic (so-called) analysts point this out? No way. How about WSJ?
Since the Carter era, the method of calculating inflation (CPI) has been revised twice. It is estimated that the same method was used now, inflation would be about 15%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
My business is heavily skewed toward automotive and construction markets. Demand was very strong in Q4 across all regions. My belief is that my customers were building inventory, just as we were, because supply chain issues in the summer and fall caused massive shipment delays and plant shutdowns due to the lack of raw materials and components. Basically we are all hoarding what we can get our hands on in Q4 because we don’t know what we may run out of next. We either risk losing business now because we can’t produce, or we risk sitting on dead inventory later when the bottom falls out of demand.
Lets Go Brandon!
My customers are building inventory so they have product in storage that can be pushed out the door the next time the government shuts them down due to a positive test.
One customer said the state could not understand why the entire plant was shut down as only one department was affected. They tried to explain that materials come of the truck at one end and never stop moving until finished product hits the dock on the other end. Shut any production department down for more than a few hours and the whole plant is down. Building inventory on the finished end buffers that.
Well, if this is how they deal with reality, then why don’t they just recalculate the temperature of the Earth? Then there won’t be any need to deal with that either… (lol) …and they can spend all of that climate change money on social programs. If they simply tell people it is colder, over and over again, it won’t matter what the real temperature is. (lol)
They did that. We are trying to match a temperature that was made up with temperatures that are made up with solutions that don’t work.
Kabuki Economics only lasts until reality destroys the illusions.
The economic train wreck is coming and cannot be stopped at this point. The administration has spent a year destroying energy, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, distribution, health care, small business, individual’s lives , jobs, savings. Regular people deal with inflation and skyrocketing energy and food prices, by cutting off non-essential purchase. Demand drys up. Once the Fed jacks interest rates and the rent/mortgage moratoriums end, the housing sector will collapse and so will a lot of banks. The consequences of fiscal buffoonery are coming whether anyone likes it or not.
Well said!
I’m not an expert in anything remotely connected to government reporting and numbers. I have a vague idea of what Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about. All I know is what I experience and what my family members and friends have or are experiencing.
Okay, that’s what I’m seeing – a massive constriction – a preparation for hard times. And every single bit of it has been caused by the Brandon Administration.
Born Free…: Excellent observations.
You see a lot…
Them Dimms are going to have to cheat a lot harder than in 2020 this November. 80 million votes for Brandon in 2020? Freaking impossible. And no one even raised an eyebrow? Not even Obummer got that many. They went WAY over the top then. What’s in for the encore this year?
PS, when someone is hired back into a position that existed before is not “job creation”.
It’s damage repair
The problem with making up numbers to create a narrative is that eventually a real number will come out that shows all of the previous numbers to be a lie. Since they are all related with known mathematical relationships, real mathematicians and statisticians can quickly work the math backwards and see where the lie stared, who started and which numbers were the lie. This is the stuff that crashes markets and creates deep recessions in a instant. The fact that everyone will eventually know is what keeps government honest, because if the government cannot be trusted in basic things they can be trusted for nothing. Not only does it crash markets, it crashes governments. A government out of control, losing altitude and pointed at a mountain does very stupid things. This is very dangerous.
Does that imply the kitty poop is about to hit the litter? 😳
“The administration is still also struggling to rein in the pandemic — a drawn-out fight that has left Americans exhausted and cast a pall over the otherwise roaring economy. The coming jobs report for January is expected to show some temporary damage from Omicron keeping sick workers at home this month. ”
and…”… worker shortages exacerbated by the pandemic might lead employers to raise prices as their labor costs rise, a situation that further feeds inflation unlike pay raises that reflect a more productive economy.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/31/biden-inflation-powell-federal-reserve-00003246