The pundits are just not getting it. It’s the inflation, stupid.
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the December jobs report today [DATA HERE] showing 199,000 job gains in December, approximately half of what was expected. Most financial pundits are perplexed as the employment rate drops to 3.9%, because many people have dropped out of the labor force. The labor participation rate remains unchanged at 61.9%.
Keep in mind, the November jobs report showed a decline in retail jobs of 29,000, and this report shows that despite November & December being the largest shopping months for holidays, the retail sector jobs were nonexistent.
The issue is what we have discussed here for months, inflation.
The job quits and JOLT turnover reports from last week showed massive numbers of employees quitting their jobs. In part this is pressure from the vaccine mandate (more on that later). However, in the majority what we are seeing is employment decisions based on inflation hitting the labor market.
Additionally, the current BLS report does not have the Omicron “winter of death” employment impact within it. That impact will come in the January report, and it will not be good. But let’s get down to reconciling December jobs data with reality on the ground.
Inflation is chewing up income amid the workforce. This is not debatable, and this is reflected in every opinion poll and economic statistic that has surfaced for the past six months. The BLS report somewhat surprised people in the 0.6% wage gains, and average wage increases are now 4.7% year over year. That should be a good thing. However, inflation at 20 to 50+% on energy, fuel, gasoline and food means a 4.7% growth in wages is a pittance.
A nickel more for a dollar earned is futile against food store inflation at 20 to 40% average price increases. We have never seen food, fuel and energy increase in price at such a rate and in such a short period of time (6 months). That real price situation is not going to improve. Economists call this “sticky” inflation, but that catch phrase does not adequately explain the foreboding issue of how damaging this is.
As this inflation relates to jobs and employment, the situation is obvious. Pundits pretend not to know things, but the two issues are connected. Ordinary workers need much higher wages to compensate for massive increases in housing costs, energy costs, gas prices and, more importantly, food prices.
The fastest way to get a quick pay increase to compensate for fast and furious inflation is to switch jobs and start the new job, in the same sector, at a higher wage. That is what we are seeing with the overall turnover rate, quits report, and larger employment data. They are all connected.
Beyond inflation, you can see from this BLS data that things are tenuous in the economy. The November retail employment figure (-29,000) was a big red flag that everyone ignored. Additionally, holiday sales at +8% when the prices are +15% or more, means that people were buying less stuff at higher prices. Overall, less stuff (units sold) was purchased.
The December BLS data shows us actual hours worked in manufacturing declined (0.1 hrs), and overtime declined (0.1 hrs). Remember, the third quarter productivity rate dropped a stunning 5% overall.
Big Picture = less stuff is in demand, less stuff is being made, and less hours are being used; however, the amount of available labor in the creation of durable goods still exceeds the demand for those durable goods, hence productivity has dropped.
Construction employment is modest at +22,000 in December, but it is lower than the prior three months average of +38,000. Some of this is seasonal, but the trendline is much softer than a customary 3.9% total unemployment economy would show. Again, more evidence of weakness in the structural economy (no pun intended).
Two-thirds of the U.S. economy overall is dependent on people buying stuff. When people cannot afford to buy stuff, because their disposable income has been wiped out by inflation, things in the data start to show the wobbly wheels of a tenuous economic train.
When the number of people quitting their jobs, or switching jobs, is twice the number of people getting officially hired in the BLS jobs report, then you know things are sketchy.
Let me repeat the issue and try to emphasize the problem. It’s the inflation, stupid.
.
We have a looming problem that does not reconcile with 3.9% unemployment. The pundits are perplexed.
The confusion is because NO ECONOMIC data has ever shown this level of inflation in such a short period of time. There are no models. There is no experience in this situation. This is not like the 1970’s where oil prices were the direct and primary cause. This is different, because we are experiencing shortages and price increases specifically due to policy.
Energy policy is killing us (oil and natural gas prices). Legislative policy is killing us (spending and bailouts). Monetary policy is killing us (cheap lending, quantitative easing, devaluation). All of this is causing massive inflation at a level we have never seen in history, and it’s on everything.
Then we throw in a vaccine mandate, and perpetual fear of a virus that hits both the demand side and the employment side simultaneously…. and, well, here you go. The disruptions inside the economy are like deep cuts, thousands of them, and they are not accidental.
Many, if not most, of these disruptions are being done at the altar of climate change and the Green New Deal.
COVID-19 mitigation and mandates only make this worse.
The disruptions in the supply chain are a direct result of policy. Now, we have to prepare for inflation AND shortages. This will not get better in 2022.
Prepare your family accordingly. I believe those of you reading this article represent the people best prepared for what is about to happen.
It’s funny that when Trump was in office, employment gains were always higher than they expected. With Biden and Obama they were/are always lower than expected. Every agency in this damn government is biased leftist trash.
Yeah, as I recall, Obama’s numbers were always revised downwards after they were first introduced, and Trump’s numbers were always revised upwards.
No media bias there….
PDJT “FOUND” Obozo’s Magic Wand
Obama says Trump can’t bring back Jobs without magic wand
And Brandon promptly threw it away.
As PDJT said (paraphrasing) if they had been smart, they would have gone on a 6 month vacation, right after the (phony) Inaugeration, and when they returned, taken credit for everything Trump did.
IF they had left oil alone, IF they had implemented the Trump plan for withdrawal from Afganistan, if, if, if, most would be saying Brandon was doing a “bang up” job.
So much for the knee jerk responce of immediately trying to “erase Trump” by undoing ALL of his policy initatives and accomplishments!
They THOUGHT we wouldn’t NOTICE?
WE noticed!
A great point sir. The mass murdering Liberal communist racist psychopath “Lord” Robert Mugabe did not start firing his competent white economic advisers/government officials and military officers, until he consolidated power. After he murdered 30000+ of his Zulu opponents, he than started to ethnically cleanse and murder the white farmers. The results were economic ruin, scarcity, and hyperinflation.
Thanks to western liberal “democracy” aka communist sanctions & terrorism.
Could be a look at our future if we lose
Never ever admit to owning guns and ammo mine sadly were lost in a boating accident
Mine too – it was horrible.
The first thing they do when they got into office was reward people who helped them get there. Buffet verses Keystone.
Can’t they f k n HATE us for rejecting hellary
Well, actually it looks like he just used the “magic wand” to aggrandize himself, his family, and his leftist friends. But just like Mickey Mouse in The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, these people will overreach and be destroyed.
Sooner the better for all the rest of us.
Thank you for that link.
is another good video. At 0:25 it plays the “Bibity Bobity Boo” song, and at 0:58 it shows statistics of how Pres. Trump helped our economy.
I miss President Trump! I miss the confidence of knowing that we were on the right track with him.
A nice find. That was one of the cultural marxist crypto-Muslim’s stupidest things he ever said. He was a real dummie, who hates Heritage America
Hated it since childhood. Brought up to hate it.
Obama has a magic wand; unfortunately, it’s the kind that destroys everything it touches.
And in both situations, the numbers always get “adjusted” at a later date – during Obama/Biden the numbers are “unexpectedly low” to begin with, but later get adjusted downward even more. When Trump was in office, the numbers would come in “surprisingly high” and would then get adjusted to be even better in a few weeks. It all depends on what narrative TPTB are trying to push!
Every agency needs to be eliminated from Washington DC, and a few new key ones with small staffs should take their place.
PJT hinted in his interview with Mr Blaze TV….that Education Dept is going by bye……. so I can dream
If by the Grace of God DJT should be re-elected, I want to forewarn everyone that the establishment will fight him tooth and nail against reducing or eliminating ANYTHING in DC–budgets, agencies, personnel…..whatever.
One major issue is people think Trump should be “re-elected”. It does not address Trump was elected had it not been for an illegal fraudulent elevation. It is like we are supposed to accept for some reason the Biden Presidency.
Until the People get it through their heads the election of the present President is a result of fraud then every President from now on will most likely be the result of fraud…..Why not?
I kinda agree, but as you well know, Big Tech and the Enemedia (including most of the Republican establishment) have done a good job of censoring and outright covering up the election fraud that installed gropin’ Joe.
I think if we could eliminate Big Tech censorship and / or have the media present the facts of November 2020 and immediately after, most people “would get it through their heads”.
At this point the only way to rid ourselves of Big Tech and the Enemedia is to totally get rid of them, regulations won’t do it, breaking them up won’t do it, nothing short of total destruction with people going to prison will do it.
In less that a month President Trump’s own social media platform will be coming online.
Don’t worry- he’s got this.
Boy do I ever get hammered for joining Trump’s platform. Being retired now, I can’t just throw money around willy-nilly. They try to shame me into joining by saying I must be a Democrat now!
We here, chinese wife and german me, will never forgive nor forget. One of Sundances statements from s few weeks ago about utterly eliminating the political lies of the left was great. Ah, and rebuild a “real conservative country and govt”, not just an America-first party. Out entire nation must be “america first”. No other spectrum of corruption should have access to the governance structures of our nation. No individual, no party, no faceless corp, has the right to cancel my children’s nor my nations future. Friggin PERIOD 😬
He actually seemed to agree with the premise of the question, that a long list of agencies need to be eliminated, or purged from the top down.
NOT just Education, FBI/DOJ, CIA, Dept of Energy, NIH, FDA, CDC it would probably be easier to list agencies NOT in need of major paring or elimination.
Assuming he wins in 2024, a Congress NOT constantly working in opposition, but actually supporting his agenda, may be essential.
In addition, MAGA State governments, aggresively asserting States rights, to FORCE the trimming back of Federal overreach, could work IN CONCERT with a second Trump admin.
BECAUSE the Federal govt has engaged in such a massive overreach and taking of powers rightfully the States, such a campaign would find a “target rich environment”.
And yet there are people who take the “covid” numbers as gospel. Go figure.
Even SCOTUS justice Sotomeyr was spreading garbage misinformation about 100,000 children in hospitals with COVID – actual number is roughly 3,300.
Noticed that too, did you?
I always enjoyed the new sabremetric type statistic created under Obamboozler. Jobs created or saved.
And there are hundreds of them.
… and this is BEFORE the numbers will quietly be revised downwards in a week or two.
But those mean Republicans, especially that traitor Manchin, are keeping the GDP from being the highest EVER recorded in the history of the Universe!
I hope you’re right about the level of preparedness.
The level of ineptitude in this phoney administration is as off the chart as the inflation rate.
Thanks for the good info!
As Sundance often says the ineptitude is not a flaw it’s a feature.
And as of yesterday there’s no Kleenex at HEB in Fredericksburg, Tx. The guy working the shelves said none in sight.
Sundance writes, “ I believe those of you reading this article represent the people best prepared for what is about to happen.”
From my informal surveys (which are usually covert when speaking casually to friends or family beyond my own household and two adult children) , this is entirely true.
I am amazed at how many aren’t expecting what’s coming in terms of severity and duration. I forward these articles to everyone who’s previously provided positive feedback on them.
GB, there are precious few who truly see the train-wreck that is coming. Occasionally, I will try to discuss this with someone and they seem genuinely mystified when I try to explain.
There are a few people in my orbit who get it and are as on top of things as I am, but from what I can tell, we are tiny minority of the overall population.
Given the number of Prepper sites today and the incalculable number of warning signs these last few months, are people just choosing to not understand and consequently, prepare?
Accepting the reality of what is coming and dealing with it is simply too difficult for many. Ever hear of “normalcy bias”?
Its a kind of rationalization of reality that allows people to gloss over difficult, complicated or even dangerous events and circumstances because they are too scared, weak, lazy or stupid to deal with reality.
As Ayn Rand said, “You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”
Watch the movie Don’t Look Up. The cast is a pile of leftists but the premise is spectacular. Lots of fun
I did. It was truly what human nature is about these days. They didn’t take notice until it was too late.
I used to share Sundance’s insight with friends. They didn’t take notice. Those same friends have no clue what is about to hit them and I’m not going to tell them. Call me whatever you want, I tried and now it’s survival.
But how do those of us in the cities actually prepare? I suspect I’m much better situated than most of my neighbors since I’ve got a full freezer and a very well stocked pantry – pretty sure we could squeak by for quite a few months without a single grocery run but beyond that I don’t have any idea.
And our family currently includes 3 hollow legged teenage boys – help! What else can I do? I know- get out of the city but that’s unlikely to happen for the next three years. Any other practical advice?
How prepared do we need to be? A year out? Two?
lentils, split pea, 15 bean soup, brown rice, white rice, yeast, baking flour, salt, buillion lots, powdered milk, progresso soup, 1 can daily for each boy for one year, cans of tuna, cans of chicken, olive oil, one can of fruit per boy per day for one year. godspeed to your family.
Look at the selections of freeze dried / dehydrated foods available from places such as MountainHouse.com and Honeyville.com . That’ll give you a good idea of what to stock up on in the dry storage area of your home.
Buckwheat’s list is pretty good – basic but solid prepper list.
Also you should have a really good water filter even if you are on “city water”. You never know when the municipal morons are going to screw up the water purification process. A Berkey filter or equivalent is the easy way to do it without any plumbing.
Another interesting bit of information I looked up last week during a discussion with a friend.
The AVG MEDIAN VALUE for financial break points that define the top 1%, 2%, 5%, 10% and 50% ALL have decreased significantly. That means more people with lower INCOME and NET WORTH are needed to define the break points. It is no longer worth even doing income and net worth disparity assessments …. it now should be a BY NAME assessment of few in the upper reaches of the 1% category.
Break points in MEDIAN NET WORTH in 2021:
1% = $10 million
2% = $2.4 million
5% = $1 Million
10% = $830k
50% = $507K
The numbers are going to get worse as skilled and blue collar jobs disappear to greatly thin the ranks Middle Classes and reduce their financial growth potential.
They won’t be able to live in denial much longer.
Their version of communism was supposed to be different. You know communism was never done right before but they would absolutely make it right this time. They know how.
However here we are… inflation, empty shelves, tyranny, human rights being wipped away by the gov, political opposition being persecuted… Just like the same ol’ communism.
Is this it? Is this what they fought for all these decades?
“Is this what they fought for all these decades?”
That is a good question. Those I know, I’m straight up asking them.
Well, it’s not like we didn’t try to tell them.
Over and over and over.
Yep, this is it.
When the SC states in a case that there are 100,000 children sick and on ventilators, there’s a bigger problem than I thought.
She should have said that by next Christmas there will be 100,000 children whose parents can’t afford the latest video game.
Just as irrelevant but likely to be true.
Sotomayor is frighteningly dumb.
Basically Communism is a satanic criminal conspiracy to loot,rob, and murder, usually of White Christians, but in other countries they target the middle class and those rich who are not related or contribute to the satanic global agenda
Exactly 💯
It’s greed across the entire supply chain. We just need the government to fix it. The USPS can run the ports. The government stamps approval on beef, why not produce it. Need money to buy things the government can print it. The terrorists are the only thing preventing success. Success or the terrorists. Simple choice.
Howdy Doody Pete Hide the Sausage Buttieg the Transportation Fairy is on the job, so expect more BrokeBack Mtn Better, instead of Make America Great.
What’s going to happen when there’s no soy formula for the Buttgagger babies and his wife the soi boi ?
When you can’t differentiate between male and female you will have some unique challenges in raising beef.
Amerizuela is JoeBamaLa’s policy/policies objective.
Obama to Trump: ‘What Magic Wand Do You Have’ To Bring Jobs Back?
https://thefederalistpapers.org/opinion/obama-trump-magic-wand-bring-jobs-back
Retired Magistrate here: I keep telling people to be prepared for supply chain issues; some get it and are stocking up and others look at me like I am nuts. Oh well, I am doing the best I can to prepare my husband and I for what is coming and to those that will listen, I try to educate them also.
Those who are prepared will survive this; those who are not, well let’s just say this, be prepared to protect what you have from those who don’t have what they need to survive and want what you have.
Marcia, would you mind elaborating on what you are doing to prepare?
I was at my local WalMart yesterday….It appears that there has been an incredible turnover in staff, I didn’t recognize any of the employee from previous visits. All of the staff I encountered yesterday were all over retirement age.
I also bought a bag of carrots and there was new green growth on them, which tells me these carrots have been in storage for quite some time. It also indicates perhaps, WalMart is scraping the bottom of the reserves in their warehouses in an effort to keep ‘the basics’ on the produce shelves.
Retired magistrate;
a VALUABLE point. When your neighbor is faced with killing you, or feeding his starving family, we all know what he will choose.
Be CIRCUMSPECT in your preparations, also bear in mind as shortages worsen, “HORDING” will be condemned, and those that are “caught short” will be very RECEPTIVE to such condemnation.
Also, bear in mind; stockpiling, or “prepping” is great for dealing with a TEMPORARY situation, like a Natural, man made or economic emergency, that WILL resolve, with “things” eventually “getting back to normal” (a hurricane, for example).
For a sustained, long term situation, stockpiling can only last SO long, and then you are in the same boat as everyone else, and its sinking fast.
SUSTAINABILITY, ironically is where you need to be heading.
Think first about ESSENTIALS; Food, shelter, heat/cooling (ENERGY) Transportation (ENERGY and maintenance) etc.
As you address short term shortages by “stocking up”, then think of how you can “do without”, do with less, or produce your own.
There is NO REASON to believe the coming situation will resolve, any time soon, and for almost all, it simply isn’t possible to “stock up” enough, to last forever.
They won’t let a crisis go to waste either. Your digital passport will be enhanced so you can only spend X amount of dollars on groceries. The algorithm will, of course, take into account if you support the gubmint, your race, and if you’re a Christian.
You really nailed it. Great economic commentary. One of the pleasures of this site is it’s grounding in solid economics when analyzing domestic and world events.
Thank you.
BrokeBack Better. Think of this like a domestic treasonous/criminal NAFTA/WTO Unfair Trade agreements, where instead of shipping tens of millions of jobs OUT of the US, they SHUT DOWN the businesses here to destroy them
The Secretary of Transportation Fairy Petey will throw them some masks and Bubblewrap vests to rescue them.
Yup, “Build an ARK!”
They know. They just don’t want us to know.
All by design. “THE GREAT RESET” Klaus Schwab: “You’ll own nothing and be happy”.
“The fastest way to get a quick pay increase to compensate for fast and furious inflation is to switch jobs and start the new job, in the same sector, at a higher wage.” That is exactly what my daughter is doing now. Her position at a national-based company became untenable when the company demanded she divulge her vaccination status or pay for weekly testing. She refused. Now she has found a job at another company, which doesn’t ask questions or enforce any kind of Covid rules, for 30% higher wage doing the same work.
Sounds like Win Win for both Daughter and new company. Hopefully losing her talent and expertise places a real hurt on her old woke organization.
Question for the masses: When Governor Nome suggested workers should seek new jobs if their companies were pushing vaccinations and tests she got a lot of pushback. Now it seems quite acceptable. What has changed?
Right now Many small businesses are struggling to keep their doors open because of staff shortages. I wonder how they are holding up? Will this cause an avalanche of bankruptcies?
Some restaurants are closed or partially closed, others opening just a few hours a day, it’s sad to see what the communists are doing to America.
They are following Venezuela playbook.
How are some of you preparing?
Neighborhood militia. I need to get more supplies, food and essentials. I am a little behind on that. I moved years ago, so that was also a big plus. I’m in full on flyover country with loads of military deplorables and refugees from communist takeover countries in SA, Rhodesia etc There will be no bs where I live with Democrat criminals & Democrat racist terrorists
Trust No One
True, these are my neighbors/friends. Look at the way they are dressed. Nice watches, comrades
What if they gave an insurrection…and nobody came? I love the issue sunglasses, Oakley’s don’t ya know, it’s what all the in-feds wear!!
Retired Magistrate here: Go to the grocery store often and stock up on non perishables such as canned goods, paper products, etc. Also am getting as much of our prescription medication now as possible. I know canned goods don’t have a lot of nutrition; however, we live in a cold climate and can’t grow anything during the winter. Also, as far as growing a garden in the summer, due to various health issues, I can grow some things in pots but that is about it. I freeze a lot of bread and bakery goods that I get on sale and the freezer is full of meat. We have another refrigerator down in the basement and I am filling it up also.
If the electricity goes out, will put the meat in big rubber containers and put them outside; we live in a Central Ohio so the meat will hold for a while. We also have stocked up on charcoal and lighter fluid so we can grill out if we have to. Have wood cut for the wood burning stove and will get our fuel oil tanks filled this week. Also have gas cans filled. Finally have all the treatments for covid if we get it again. We are unvaxxed and intend to stay that way.
Be prepared; you can survive this. Finally, we all need to pray for our country that GOD will restore this country to its founding principles.
sounds good
Would add that getting a generator if you can will keep the household running a bit longer.
Can get all “Rx” medications (that aren’t ‘get highs’) from India pharmacies, same as sources for Ivermectine and HCQ.
I posted, weeks ago FDA has a list on their website, of “Rx” medications currently “in short supply or unavailble” in the US, due to supply chain disruptions.
BECAUSE they long ago experience some Rx .medications being unavailable in the U.S.(largely due to FDA actions) Federal law allows citisens to legally purchase up to 3 months of “Rx only” meds, from international pharmacies.
Oh, and research “sprouts”; they are a GREAT source of nutrition, a “fresh vegatable” that even you can grow, in a little jar, sitting next to your kitchen sink.
VERY easy, for even the least “green thumb” to grow.
A block of dry ice will buy you some time with what’s in the fridge or freezer, in the event of a power outage.
Try to pay-off debt so they can’t take your collateral… property..etc…
Gotvoff the debt train 20+ years ago, and never regretted it.
Read about a guy that set up a system, so he and family wouldn’t have to leave home, after ice storm.
Parked a car, right next to house, with it running, used it for 12 volt electric, for lights.
Tapped into the heater lines, ran those into house to heater radiator (from salvage yard) with 12 volt fan.
So, he had light and heat, so long as he ran the car (so needed gasoline).
Mainly ran it at night, and closed off MOST of the house, so throw it out there as an idea.
I don’t live where that cold, white stuff falls from the sky, as we are ‘allergic’ lol.
According to the WH resident and self proclaimed Nobel Laureate, Joe Biden, he actually said the US is experiencing the best employment numbers in the history of a first year presidency.
A delusional President Biden on Friday shrugged off the worst jobs report of his presidency as the U.S. economy added less than half the number of jobs expected in December amid a massive surge in COVID-19 cases.
Mr. Biden showed up about an hour late for his speech and emphasized the report’s lone bright spot, that unemployment dropped slightly to 3.9% in December from 4.2% in November, even though economists say that reflects fewer people seeking work.
“Today is a historic day for economic recovery,” Mr. Biden said, calling the drop the sharpest one-year drop in U.S. history. “I would argue that the Biden economic plan is working and America is getting back to work, back on its feet.”
Trump hits Obama for 2016 ‘magic wand’ comment about economy
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/405878-trump-bashes-obama-for-2016-magic-wand-comment-about-economy
The better number is the Household Survey, higher by 651,000. There is a clear trend of many moving to self-employment in recent mos. Likely due to vaccine mandates.
News radio I was listening to this morning after giving the jobs report went on to suggest the low numbers could be a result of more people becoming “self employed”. They are a Fox affiliate. First time I ever heard self employed being thrown into the mix of lower than expected numbers.
Only a minority of first-time self employed people do well. It takes a while to develop methods and money handling practices. There is a need for thought-out planning. Some can do this; others will fall on their faces. Those who fail are those who quit trying.
“Prepare your family accordingly. I believe those of you reading this article represent the people best prepared for what is about to happen.”
Amen….do what you can. Anything is better than nothing. Water, food, medicine, defense in that order.
Two questions, closely intertwined.
Doesn’t all this hit HARD, both Multinational Corporations, and CHINA.
USA has ALWAYS been THE market BECAUSE our large middle class, meant we were purchasing FAR outside our “weight class” with a population of 350 million, buying more “stuff” than countries with much larger populations.
But wait, I thought it WAS the multinational corporations, and China that were giving the Bidenistas their marching orders?
And, as there are various reports (Jim Hoft at TGP has done steller work on this) that CHINA is imploding, with numerous systemic problems hitting simultaneously; real estate bubble collapse, energy shortage requiring factories to reduce operations in order to keep residences powered, lack of demand for products (due to U.S. reduction in demand) and even a belated recognition that endemic sustained corruption within the military has serious negative consequences.
It has long been said that the CCP is not “popular” and that their hold on power is totally dependant on their continueing to “make good” on their promise of ever increasing prosperity for “the people”.
Is it possible that OUR economic problems, could cause such ripple effect problems in China, that they would lead to fall of CCP?
Good question … now, try turning it around. I have spent a lot of time in China, from big cities to small villages, and my assessment is that, outside the cities, China is still in the 19th century. It is very badly managed, and now beset by crises in multiple sectors: agricultural production, urban real estate, the financial sector, energy mismanagement, and above all, cooking the books for municipal assets and receipts. I believe that the Chicoms are doing everything they can to destroy our economy because their own is beyond salvage. This is precisely the same strategy that they used to spread the Wuhan flu all over the world long weeks after they had shut down internal travel. Think of it as leveling the playing field.
What US President’s economic policies were directly responsible for record low worker participation rates?
A) Jimmy Carter
B) Barack 0bama
C) Joe Biden
D) All of the above
There is great opportunities in the job market right now for people smart enough to exploit them.
Vaxed or unvaxed opportunities ?
Democrats and RINO’s ruin everything. It’s what they do and it is intentional. Sheeple contribute by believing and voting for them.
Funny thing that gold and silver prices don’t reflect the inflation. You would almost think those markets were being manipulated or something (wink wink)
“Most financial pundits are perplexed as the employment rate drops to 3.9% because many people have dropped out of the labor force. The labor participation rate remains unchanged at 61.9%.”
I don’t understand how you square those two statements – “many people have dropped out of the labor force” and “labor participation rate remains unchanged at 61.9%”
The labor force participation rate is the % of working-age people gainfully employed or actively seeking employment. If the labor force participation rate does not change – 61.9% – then people are not dropping out of the labor force (quitting entirely).
The unemployment rate is the % of the labor force that is unemployed. The number of people in the pool of available workers who are without jobs declined to 3.9%.
I get the whole point about inflation and declining real wages. However, I suspect that the reason it was 199,000 instead of 400,000 is that 3.9% is below what most economists refer to as full employment which is between 4.1%-4.7%. Below that number represents job switching and it poses significant inflationary risk. You can’t keep adding 400,000-500,000 jobs a month without the jobless rate dropping to 2-3% which is almost impossible at any given instant in time just because of normal turnover.
The connection to inflation is that once unemployment gets too low, inflation goes up, because fewer workers mean employers are going to try and pay more to attract them. To your point, workers are also switching jobs to get those higher wages. High wages beget higher prices, i.e. inflation.
I think that’s the point you’re trying to make, but the conflicting definitions get in the way.
Nation-wide, in an effort to unclog the COVID19 toilet, employers are throwing people at a problem that more people cannot solve. More people working at the grocery store can’t resolve the upstream supply chain problems. More staff can’t bring gas prices down (quite the opposite).
Hard to follow but this is the simplest answer I could find (from Indeed.com) . They are calculated using different groups of people. First unemployment rate:
1. Determine the percentage of people in the labor force
The first step in calculating the unemployment rate is to calculate the total percentage of individuals in the labor force, or those who are currently working. To do so, divide the number of individuals working by the total working-age population. You then multiply this number by 100 to get the percentage.
2. Find the percentage of individuals out of the labor force
Next, you must determine the total percentage of individuals who are not currently working because they are out of the labor force. To do so, divide the number of people out of the labor force by the total working-age population. Then multiply this number by 100 to get the percentage.
3. Divide the number of unemployed persons by the number of employed personsUsing the information obtained in the first two steps, divide the total number of unemployed individuals by the total number of those in the labor force. Then multiply this number to get the unemployment rate.
Now labor participation:
1. Gather labor force data
The labor force is comprised of working-age adults, those 16 or older, who are either employed or have been actively seeking employment for at least four weeks.
Example: To know what the labor force participation rate was for the year 2018, first, you must determine the number of people in the labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the labor force for the United States in 2018 was 162,075,000.
2. Gather population data
The population does not include working-age people who are institutionalized, but it does include everyone else between the ages of 16 and 64.
Example: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the population of non-institutionalized working-age people in the United States in 2018 was 258,888,000.
3. Calculate the labor force participation rate
To calculate the labor force participation rate, divide the labor force by the population. Convert that decimal into a percentage to see the labor force participation rate.
Formula: (Labor force ÷ Civilian Noninstitutional Population) x 100
Of course the pundits get it, they’re just running interference for the Obiden’s as they were instructed to do last month.
From Ace of Spades HQ
Bloomberg tried to hide the bad news.
Updated Headline: U.S. Jobless Rate Falls as Wages Jump, Adding Pressure on Fed
Original Headline (in URL; they couldn’t change that one):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/u-s-adds-fewer-jobs-than-forecast-unemployment-rate-falls
Posted by: Darrell Harris
Soon we’ll be having having headlines about ‘funflation’!
Not to detract from your point about inflation because you are correct but, I want to offer another reason the pundits are perplexed by events under a 3.9% unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is hokum. Not to say it is made up out of thin air, there are 60,000 scientifically selected households involved in the Current Population Survey. From the BLS: “The CPS is the source of the national unemployment rate, along with a wide range of information about employment, unemployment, and people not in the labor force.” You can read all about the careful way they attempt to ensure the accuracy of the date here: Data Sources : Handbook of Methods: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov). There is some science there like math but, the actual collection of the hard data analyzed by millions is quite literally collected by hand or most often the telephone if someone answers which is hardly objective and in fact if you read to the bottom you find out they do a little internal auditing to help identify frauds. Not that a government employee would fail to do their job and just make up numbers or phone it in from a vacation spot or anything. They talk about sample size, sample areas, and sample selection etc but, in the end it is a person saying Ya I work, No I don’t work but looking hard, or No I didn’t look for work in the last whatever number of days and that is that, one of three categories. The first two are black and white but, the third one is where everything goes gray. How would you answer that question on any particular day? Some who wants to work but, failed to state they applied or whatever in the past few weeks is not considered part of the labor force but, is that correct?
Suppose you are unemployed, collecting unemployment, which means you are required to look for work, and you have either given up, or are enjoying the free ride.
Someone from “the gummint” calls, and asks you if you looked for work, and your going to answer them, honestly?
Puhlease!
I don’t trust the “America is a 50/50 nation, with slightly more voting Democrat”, which pollsters have been promulgating for YEARS.
WHY would I believe GUMMINT Pollsters, when even the WEATHER has been politicised?
Puhleeeeease!
Just goes to show you those Genius Financial Pundits don’t know Jack Shit. They are never right, they aren’t even close.
If they were ANY good at understanding and predicting economics, couldn’t they makeca lot more $, doing something ELSE?
Well even though as an organized political demographic we are powerless, the effects of socialism still results in everyone going Galt.
I really hope that as purchase decisions confront us, the first disposable items will be anything having to do with Hollywood, the media, cable TV, Netflix, and all purchases from leftist corporations.
IMO it is not LGB that’s causing all of these massive down shifts in the economy. LGB has no functional brain or understanding of anything. This is BHO’s third term economy on steroids. We could call it the LGBobama period. BHO never had the magic wand … never will. His brain was irreversibly smoked on burning coke at a young age. He/they can only take orders to complete the “transformation” of America.
Why is everything collapsing so quickly? Because time is of the essence. Even the sheep are beginning to see what’s going on.
.
Trump, in his own words, has always gone through a thorough debriefing process when one of his businesses has failed or underperformed. I think he’s looking at critical events, initiated by the Deep State against his previous administration, and going through a similar process. It’s why his enemies fear him more now than they did before as both recognise how compromised, over-extended and vulnerable they’ve become having to cover for Obiden’s disastrous policies.
Yeah Joe a swing and a Big Miss. But you think you hit a homerun.
Patriotic Citizens are not Insurrectionists. UniParty, MSN and Tech Giants war to criminalize Free Speech and Assembly has failed. Social Media ‘trolls’, are silent. As Gen Patton said in the movie ‘Patton’
‘Now we have them by the nose and we’re going to kick them in the ass!’
Trying to get my wife to understand at this moment. She at least agreed to replenish things one for one and to stock up on canned goods.
She said, for the first time ever, she will read CTH!!!
You are doing better than me. Spouse complains every time I stock the pantry.
Have tried to explain family that other people need Prozac Rxs, which cost a fortune. I just need a well stocked pantry.
“The pundits are just not getting it.” They get it. They are following a strategy of subversion.
My guess that number includes the illegals getting jobs/ I call it the invasion of the job snatchers.
Another reason people don’t want to go out to work in retail or restaurants- the MUZZLE MASKS/ FACE DIAPERS.
Everyone knows that the masks do NOTHING to protect from CCP flu- they are a sign of submission.
Unless you are really desperate for the money, most people just don’t want to suffocate themselves all day.
They get it alright .
It’s chaos that they want.
The US and the world have been conditioned to minuscule interest rates and helicopter money by central banks terrified of what will happen if they don’t.
You can prop up any financial instrument or real asset by providing near free money to buy it.
But in the end you must debase the currency.
The good news for the US is it’s all relative, I can see no other alternative to the US$ as the worlds reserve currency, no matter the US’s ominous debt position, no matter the unsustainable welfare claims on the US budget…. the US$ will reign supreme until the money supply goes Weimar. Only then will you see IMF drawing rights replace it for international commerce. That’s far, far away. That probably means a domestic $ remains for the plebs.
Oops, wrong thread.
Early retirements, disability claims (vaccine and long COVID related), excess deaths of 880,000+ 2020/2021 combined.
What Trump did with the economy should be a model to follow He was shut down to bring us this plan we are seeing unfold, planned destruction or controlled economy, good guy bad guy routine only making moves to gain votes drop prices when votes needed people never notice when they are being played.
And here is the biggest scam that cost jobs, lives, economy, livelihoods. Lying, unethical Pfizer trials of the “vaccine”.
https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/the-powerful-pfizer-presentation
The LPR remains the same because they are cooking the books….you cant have these numbers and have it have no effect on employment
Need to point out.
During Comrade Obama’s official regime 2009 to 2016, the metrics announced by his Regime “Experts” were revised to the “bad” by 50-100%.
During Obama’s 3rd Term, managing Sock Puppet Biden, the number have missed by 100 to 200% for nearly 24 months.
Call me silly, but where exactly are all these economic numbers coming from anyway? Why am I supposed to believe the government or media who propagandize everything else? Who can I trust to give it to us straight?