As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I am not an expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.
But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.
Consider this little word salad a buffet. If you are new to Florida hurricanes, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
A category-4 storm can and will erase structures, buildings and landscape.
Hurricane Ian is similar to Hurricane Charley which impacted the SW coast of Florida in 2004, only a longer duration and therefore worse. The coastal topography and barrier islands will likely change in the 40-mile-wide area of immediate impact.
Sanibel Island, Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Captiva, Upper Captiva, Boca Grande, Pine Island, Cape Coral, Siesta Key, Longboat Key, Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound could all be impacted.
There is the potential for 18+ hours of hurricane force winds and two tides with storm surges. Total infrastructure failure should be anticipated, and it will take weeks for restoration. The coastal communities are the most vulnerable; however, the inland impact of the storm will continue unimpeded until the eyewall crosses onto land.
That means communities inland for roughly 50 miles could likely see consistent hurricane force winds for several hours. That scale of sustained wind energy will snap power poles and weaken reinforced concrete.
As the backside of the storm then reverses the energy direction, any already compromised structures will not withstand the additional pressure. In many cases the backside of the storm is worse than the front. If you are inland, you too should prepare yourself for long duration of extensive wind damage followed by an extended power outage.
For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed, and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase. You’re there now.
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). (link)
Unfortunately, unlike Charley, this particular hurricane Ian will stick around for more than the 2+ hours of the 2004 storm event. That brings a serious problem with coastal storm surge (two tidal cycles). In its totality from initial impact through recovery this is going to be a long-duration event.
When the sustained winds reach around 45mph only the more dire of emergencies get an immediate response. It is almost a guarantee that around the time emergency responders stop responding, too dangerous, you will lose power from the storm. Do not expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe, in this example recovery will be delayed by the slow forward progress of the storm.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region. The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks.
The ground in Southwest Florida is also completely saturated with heavy rains even before the storm began dumping water earlier on Monday. Trees that previously withstood Irma and even Charley, could likely bend, uproot and break; the sounds are dramatic.
There’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It isn’t a howl, it’s a roar. It is very unique sound in depth and weight. Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight. Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible.
That scary roar will sound like it will never quit, especially for this specific slow-moving hurricane. It will stop, eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end. This is the part that makes people say they will never go through that again. It is intensely unnerving. Imagine being impacted by a tornado for a full day.
A hurricane wind is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms.
Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays, sometimes for hours. This one is forecast to be the longest in my memory. The wind is relentless, it just seems like it won’t let up. And then, depending on Ian’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop.
Judging by the forward speed being stated by professionals at the National Hurricane Center, the hurricane force wind will likely last around 18 hours before it stops. Prepare your nerves as best you can for this.
Then silence. No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.
Nature goes mute. It’s weird.
We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.
Due to the speed of this storm, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process around nightfall Thursday. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out. Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it isn’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.
It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from powerlines.
Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours after the storm passes. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.
However, be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Ian takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are going to get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kind of funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re going to get lost… don’t get frustrated.
No street signs. Likely no stop signs. No traffic lights.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who aren’t paying close attention.
Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It doesn’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It ain’t normalville now.
Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity, you will worship its appearance in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws, who knows how to correctly use them, and set about safely clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process.
Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed over by a focused front-end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it. Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads. Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.
For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood. Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok. There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.
After this storm half of the people living near Cape Coral, Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte are going to fit into two categories, two types of people: (1) those with a new roof; or (2) those with a blue roof (tarp).
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over. Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles. Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.
When everyone gets to work, if you see a lineman, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such. The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.
Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.
Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
Pray together and be strong together. Do not be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.
It will be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
√Andrew
√Jeanne
√Frances
√Ivan
√Charley
√Irma
√Michael
Ian
Keep a good thought. Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.
It will be OK. Promise.
Camera 8 in Punta Gorda right now:
Getting absolutely slammed
Praying for all Floridians. Everyone was very kind in extending prayers to me the other day. Thank you. Haven’t been on internet. Still in Cocoa Beach. I’m staying put. It has been very windy, heavy rain with pauses and lots of standing water. We still have power, which really surprises me. Hoping Sundance and all of you are safe. God bless.
Ian has only just begun dumping on Brevard. Plenty of time to lose power. I lived in CB most of my life, including since 2001. This is my first hurricane in a different part of Brevard. Add Cocoa’s water processing plant to your prayers. The year that went out, lugging gallons from the condo pool to my 5th floor condo was a real treat.
They send the power companies from Cocoa out to Merritt Island on 520. Once they have that strip of traffic lights and bring Cape Canaveral Hospital on-line, they begin powering up Cocoa Beach on A1A starting at 520 and moving south. Another group of power people goes north. The closer to the 520 you are the quicker you get powered up. Part of this process includes removing palm fronds, signs and other debris from the road so they are safe for travel.
If you have not filled your tubs with water, do so, while you still have power. No guarantees we will have power all night. Orlando will be having a full up hurricane of cat 2 or 3 depending on the area. By the time Ian gets to Brevard, we have a 50% chance of cat 1 level hurricane winds. Most structures in Cocoa Beach will stay intact in spite of those winds. You may want to do your laundry as well.
Brevard WILL be flooded everywhere. Many sections of many roads will not be passable. With as much rain as Ian is dumping, it will erode shorelines and may damage bridges (not the huge causeways). There are many small bridges throughout Brevard. Do not be the first one on the roads, the lights may or may not work. There may or may not be power lines down. All of Cocoa Beach has extra tall cement/reinforced power lines. The year Charlie went through, I was without power for 3 weeks. And, another hurricane was coming. Cocoa Beach was visited by 4 that year. Some restaurants and groceries had power.
I think it was 2004. I evacuated myself and my 80 yo mother to Tampa Bay. Then, I had to return for work. I did not bring her back with me because I did not know the conditions of the roads. I knew I could walk to a gas station, but, not her. I offered to take her to the airport to visit my sister in California. She refused. When I returned home, the hurricane turned and headed for Tampa. She got a cab to the airport and flew to California, anyway. She actually enjoyed it. Restaurant food, lots of friendly people.
I think that is the year all the mobile homes at the south end of A1A in Cocoa Beach blew away. They were not replaced.
We will be fine. The people where Ian made landfall will have a tough time of it. Not many structures survive winds that high and for that long. When the authorities say its ok to leave your house, the lights may still not work. It is very difficult to drive without the lights. People are confused and you have to pay very close attention. But, every restaurant that can will open and everyone will be friendly celebrating living through another hurricane.
Thank you for all the valuable info. Hope you and yours remain safe.
absolutely right on with how the mind remembers things. we lost power a while back and I was driving home without any streetlights or commercial building lights, man it was really weird! It took forever to go 5 miles in the dark with only headlights.
Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore hit by tree branch blowing down the street he was standing in while giving updates.
Or trying to stand in. The branch caught him around the shin and ankle; he said he was all right and managed to get off the street.
Thank you Sundance, stay safe. Prayers sent up.
Thank you Sundance! The voice of reason and friend of us all, let us pray!
The hurricane just stopped next to Florida’s SW coast. The eye didn’t move for hours, resulting in massive storm surge, as the winds moved counterclockwise, causing the Gulf of Mexico to roll right in. There was video of sharks swimming in the flooded streets. Some dummy filmed himself swimming in his living room (brown germ infested water). Sanibel Island is underwater, and houses were uplifted and floating around in Ft. Walton Beach. A freak storm, and hopefully no one has died as a result.
Storm surge peaked at Ft Meyers at 7.94 feet above MSL (call it 8 feet) at 6:30 pm and is still well up there
Naples tide gage rose to 7.5 feet MSL at 1:06 pm and then stopped transmitting
Ft Meyers water level rose another 6 feet from 1:06 pm until its peak 5-1/2 hours later
So Naples may have experienced storm surge of roughly 13 feet or more, judging by comparison
St Pete tide gage also stopped transmitting after 4:36 pm, when its level was -4.6 feet BELOW mean sea level
It was in a blowout tide condition as easterly winds on the top side of the storm pushed ocean water out to sea
On-scene reporters talked about it all day and warned people not to walk out far shelling and sightseeing
Nim, do you have anything on Sarasota? I have friends who have an 8 foot H, 300′ Sea Wall. if it is still there.
No, there’s no tide gage there
But Sarasota is closer to Tampa/St Pete than it is to Ft Myers
So ocean level there probably behaved more like St Pete (blowout tide to 5 feet below mean sea level under northeasterly offshore winds) than the +8 ft of storm surge at Ft Myers
Sarasota could have been near the hinge of that -5 ft negative storm surge at St Pete and the +8 ft of positive storm surge at Ft Myers
So Sarasota may have lucked out with virtually NO storm surge … my best guess
Ask your friends how they made out when you can reach them, and fill us in please
A little MASH humor….
Big Joe believes Ian will become a hurricane again before it hits South Carolina.
Yesterday, Naples wasn’t even in the picture.
Hurricane Ian’s eye is almost in the middle of Florida now – and the Maximum Sustained Winds are still 115 mph!
The NHC has added a hurricane watch for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
That’s great, thanks !
So interesting, right?
yeah, I love time-lapse
I was waiting for the water to come frome one direction, seaward I would assume. I was surprised when the water seemed to come from ALL directions.
Well, despite the 900mph winds, 200ft storm surge, 9 feet of rain, flooding rivers, lakes of dead bodies with downed power lines, attracting sharks and alligators…
We’re still not dead…
The news, local and national has been spectacular as always!
Hopefully it will help keep the blue locust Republicans from moving here.
Was reported PDJT piloted one of Putin’s subs through Ft Myers and up Caloosahatchee River into Lake Okeechobee during surge.
In the 90’s WPB had a weather man that wanted a direct hit in PB county as if it was going to be his career defining moment.
He was positive one was coming in Jupiter Inlet, we were setting in restaurant half a mile from inlet watching him on TV, didn’t happen.
Well in 2004 just north in Martin county we had 4 in fairly rapid secession—he was used up retired shortly after.
He will always be rememebered as Lyin John Mathews.
“Was reported PDJT piloted one of Putin’s subs through Ft Myers and up Caloosahatchee River into Lake Okeechobee during surge.”
… and set explosive charges on a natural gas pipeline?
Vanderbuilt is a Naples Beach.
a real shame
Have emailed everyone we know in Florida and asked if they can drop a line or call. Two at a hotel from their Sarasota ocean front home. Two from Naples…not certain where they are.
One from Islamorada, two from Tequesta, one group from Miami.
Have any of the AdRems heard from SD and family?
I don’t do Twitter, except to read Sundance, so I am not sure if
this is what you are looking for…handle?
Hope it helps.
Tweets by TheLastRefuge2
hold up…what’s this?
anyway, it’s under thelastrefuge2
@LastRefuge2
In the last decade our area has had Hurricanes Michael (2018) and Hermine (2016). Neither broke 100mph winds in our area and no storm surge inland. The coast, of course, was hit hard.
Praying for everyone’s safety as Ian passes over the state.
Prayers to those who have to get through a long, scary night .
God Bless the many who have to face a difficult reality and devastation.
God Bless and keep the victims and the first responders safe from harm.
Dearest Sundance,, Thank you for your beautiful words and uplifting message in the midst of this storm.
You are an amazing, kindhearted, and very smart guy!
God bless you and your family. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all you do. ❤️
Wind is 20-25 with an occasional short gust to 50 ish. No rain
North border of Jonathan Dickinson State Park Hobe Sound.
Been very lucky this time.
here’s a surf cam you might try in daylight, Ft Pierce Inlet a bit north of you
today south winds have been blowing the ocean sideways, south to north along the beach
https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/ft-pierce-inlet/5842041f4e65fad6a7708aa3?camId=58349962e411dc743a5d528f
it’ll throw up adverts but you should get viewing segments in between
2 Million + with no power.
42,000 Linemen from all over the country are already in Florida ready to restore power.
The competition to see who is the dumbest “news” commentator on TV is heating up quickly. It’s neck and neck and I am positive we will see even more strong competitors emerge in the next few days.
Don Lemon
Joy Reid
Joy Behar
Are all up in the top five now with more to come. I await Saint Greata of the Thunbergs attempt to enter the competition.
They all know more about the science than the UNIPCC, or the EPA climate assessment panel, etc etc etc.
As I mentioned before the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) exposes the lie. It is a cumulative approach to grading cyclonic activity based on frequency, severity/strength, and duration.
Currently the ACE for the N. Atlantic basin which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is: 96% of normal year to date.
Total N. Hemisphere ACE is: 82% of normal year to date
Western N. Pacific ACE (Where the strongest storms usually form called Typhoons) is: 74% of normal year to date.
North Indian Ocean ACE is: 107% of normal year to date
Southern Hemisphere ACE: is N/A since it is not the season there as spring has just sprung.
Total Global ACE is: 81% of normal year to date.
“Normal” is defined as average ACE in the period from 1991 to 2020.
Global Major Hurricane Frequency graph:
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue (climatlas.com)
Big Joe emphatically agrees:
4:00 am Update from East Orlando, other than a ton of rain and wind, not much is going on here as far as damage goes, thank God. We’re praying for all those who got the worst of this monster storm and hope everyone is staying safe out there.
Big Joe still sees Ian regrouping and becoming a hurricane again.
The tribe here is fine….
The boys in a condo at ground zero in Ft. Myers next to Cape Coral and landfall took the eye wall for about 6 hours. A few old screens put on in the 80’s on their lanai got ripped up. A few plants knocked down. One of their neighbors lost a lanai and a storm door. Their power went out early and has been out. Not much flooding because their storm drains handled it. We were texting during the whole she-bang.
He was prepped early with good generator power, so, we’ll see how he is today.
Lots of flooding over there in other areas, tho. More than Irma because it moved so slowly, averaging about 8mph.
Flooding damage is going to be the big one to take care of down here. Lots of property loss. This is what happens when land development happens in flood zones. “Ya buy yer tickets, ya take yer rides.”
In the South Yeehaw bunker, where I’m at 40 miles east, we took about the same amount of eye wall as Irma but it was NOT as severe. The damn eye wobbled to the east and made a pass at us. Maybe 75-80mph for a couple of hours. Never lost power–Power in about 50% of the county is down, mainly because their transmission lines were in a different wind field. Yard is trashed with the normal ripped off oak and pine debris. The best result is that my tunnel greenhouse took the wind like a champ–perfect design for high wind flow. Rack and a hose is the standard equipment for today.
One thing that made me extremely mad is that ALL the broadcast animated of images use RAIN instead of WIND VELOCITY. It was much different during Irma for the velocity–they were showing real time velocity constantly. In my case, the rain bands stopped pulling up from the south when the eye wall hit us, whereas the WIND VELOCITY was increasing. So, the media showed NOTHING running into us. I have yet to find a real good site that shows doppler wind velocity in a real time basis.
If you’re in the current path find a WIND VELOCITY site and keep it running during the storm. Remember, it is not pulling water from the south now but the wind is there.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/c-and-c-news-thursday-september-29
Good morning, C&C Army. Two and a half million Floridians are out of power this morning, but not me. I am writing to you from North Central Florida, just now reaching peak winds, around 20-25 miles per hour, which means its weirdly cold outside and every tree in sight is writhing like an electric mixer.
But this is nothing compared to the 100+ mph winds that Southwest and Central Floridians experienced yesterday and throughout the night. Right before impact, Hurricane Ian’s track shifted south, and instead of hitting Tampa, it landed three hours’ drive time away, in the normally-idyllic Fort Meyers area, just south of Sarasota, and just north of Naples.
They didn’t have enough warning to prepare for a direct strike.
First views from Port Charlotte where our family vacation home lies very near town on a channel coming off the bay.
The Weather Channel on Twitter: “FIRST LOOK: Aerials in Port Charlotte, Florida, show severe structural damage and flooding in the wake of Hurricane #Ian: https://t.co/rHMEPjPhjM” / Twitter
The girls at Daytona beach are still OK. Still have electricity and cell service but no internet. Gusts up to 70 mph took out a big palm across the street from them. Water running down their street and pushed up towards the house by the wind. Worst is yet to come though when the back side of the storm comes over it will be feeding off the ocean again.
Their jeep is packed up and they’re ready to go
Glad y’all are all doing ok.
I heard from my friend in Lake Helen this morning.
At that time, it was still raining and windy. They do not have electricity.
We’ve lost contact now. No cell service.
We regained contact. Power flickering on and off. Water up to their garage door. Now out of contact again. Think they must be past the worst of it by now based on the radar.
Ian has moved off shore – now a tropical storm with 65 mph sustained winds.
We shall soon see if Big Joe Bastardi is right – that it will become a hurricane again before hitting South Carolina.
A fast south wind that is just as fast as the storm itself, is feeding into Ian. https://www.windy.com/?30.522,-84.263,5
That source of power, in addition to the storm building power of the warm gulf stream waters along our eastern shore, makes me believe Big Joe is right in saying that Ian will again become a hurricane.
The cold front that would have caused sheer is now too far east out over the Atlantic to do any good so re-intensification is likely.
I think ole Jim Cantori is finding out he’s getting a bit long in the tooth to be standing out there in wind as he always has done.
Just heard from HOA at Hwy41 and Coconut Rd in Estero, FL. It’s South of Fort Myers and about 2 miles inland as the crow flies.
None of the units have exterior wind damage, the storm surge didn’t reach them and the area retention ponds never flooded.
So even though power and cell service is out, the destruction wasn’t completely across Lee County
Levi has a new video out.
Basically Charleston, SC is where it will head but could drift a bit further north. Windband will be broader now. Basically all of SC, NC, and VA east of the Appalacians are in for some heavy rains but the biggest concern is once again storm surge, particularly along the SC coast. NHC shows it once again becoming a hurricane before 2nd landfall. Ian is one for the record books as far as rainfall and storm surge goes.
Tropical Tidbits
Now the NHC agrees with Big Joe Bastardi – that Ian will become a hurricane again before landfall in South Carolina.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/155348.shtml?cone#contents
Ian has what looks like a giant wide feeder band that goes the length of North America and beyond – and has come off the east coast of Florida with a very healthy well-defined eye.
The southerly winds inside that massive band that are feeding Ian are just as fast as those in the storm.
https://www.windy.com/?30.522,-84.263,5