Specific Retail Food Shortages Will Not Soon Improve, But the Overall Food Supply Chain is Very Strong…

We are entering into phase-3 of the supply-chain distribution shortages within the retail food sector.   Phase-1 was immediate impact.  Phase-2 was the spread to the warehouse and distribution.  Phase-3 impacts are further upstream, processing & suppliers.

The current shelf-stock shortages are not soon to reconcile; however, the shortages are still in the regional phase.  Meaning there is a big difference in the availability of products depending on the type of distribution network, and the specific retailers, in your area.

The ‘spider-spread effect’ happens when large metropolitan chains, serving large urban and megalopolis areas (1 million+ residents in 50 mile radius), reach a critical shortage in their supply network; and those residents then drive distances to locate their needs.  This is going on now across the country as regional supply chains try to keep up with demand.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

Food ‘outside the home’ includes: restaurants, fast-food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more.  Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 50 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.

The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain.  Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets.   As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort the ‘food away from home’ sector has been reduced by half of daily food delivery operations, possibly more.  However, people still need to eat.

That means retail food outlets, grocers, are seeing sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.  This, along with some panic shopping, is the reason why supermarkets are overwhelmed and their supply chain is out of stock on many items.

There is enough food capacity in the overall food supply chain, and no-one should worry about the U.S. ever running out of the ability to feed itself.  However, the total food supply chain is based on two segments: food at home and food away from home.

The seismic shift toward ‘food at home‘ is what has caused the shortages, and that supply chain is not likely to recover full service of products again until the ‘food away from home’ sector gets back to normal.   No need to panic, but there will be long-term shortages.

At the top of the food supply there is ample product and capacity.  Its the diversion of customers to the retail grocery sector causing the shortages.

Large chain-stores were impacted first and worst as their proprietary supply chain, and their automated replenishment systems, are more vulnerable to such wide-scale disruption. Their resupply is based on eight week averages. Smaller regional markets, less than 25 stores or mom-and-pops, are/were impacted less due to their use of wholesalers for distribution and a faster response time.

However, in this phase-3 those wholesalers will now enter a period where they are in competition for resupply with the large retail outlets…. so we are entering the phase were smaller stores, and independents, are going to have more trouble getting product.

Additionally, distance from distribution hub  will also play a role in your ability to locate product.

Residents within 50 miles from a distribution center (retail grocery warehouse) will find their stores with a better in-stock position.

Residents living 50 to 100 miles from distribution will see less products available. People living 100+ miles will likely see the worst in-stock positions for typical staples, perishables and non-perishables unless they are locally procured.

The fresh-meat, poultry and produce sections are the first disrupted (short term) but least disrupted long term.  The reason is simple, the raw material isn’t needed in the restaurant supply chain; those products are right now in the process of being shifted to manufacturing, protein processing, and eventually into the retail food supply chain to end up in your local supermarket refrigerated store cases.

With the increased diversion, increased production and increased distribution, inside of two weeks we should see fresh meats, chicken, pork etc. (protein sector) return to normal in your area supermarket.

Produce is both nationally and locally sourced, so that supply chain was never as much at risk of disruption. Additionally, with the restaurant sector demand reduced the produce operations will recover quickly as soon as supply chain diversion and distribution increases.  Less than a week and the produce section in your local supermarket should be solid.

However, the frozen foods, frozen pizzas, frozen meals ready to eat (RTE) and specifically processed lunchmeats and cheeses will continue to suffer from supply chain issues.  The reasons are not complex.  Processed food has a production capacity.  Think about Oscar Meyer, Tyson, Hormel, etc. they can only process a maximum amount within their manufacturing facilities.  [China owns Smithfield, so China controls that company]

To the extent that extra shoppers means extra consumers wiping out frozen foods, lunch-meats, bacon and cheeses, the manufacturing side of the retail food system will be limited by their capacity.  That sector is not going to change and long-term supply chain issues will continue.  However, on the good news side, we should be able to buy lunch meats at the in-store deli counters because that bulk delivery processing sector will have more production capacity.

So if you’re looking for bologna (or similar), and the it’s not available pre-packaged in the traditional case, try looking for it in the deli section.  It will be more expensive, but such is life with coronavirus.

In addition to the shortages in frozen foods, processed lunch-meat and dairy items, the non-perishable goods will also have wide-spread outages.  Again, this is a store issue (phase-1), distribution capacity issue (phase-2), and will now become an upstream production capacity issue in phase-3.

Bread, canned goods, rice, cereals, pasta, flour, sugar, bottled water, etc. are selling beyond the capacity of the traditional supply chain to keep up with demand.

Traditional emergency food recovery and distribution models (think hurricanes) are designed for short-term disruptions to the restaurant sector that provides 50% of food outside the home; and, as a result, short-term increases to at home food needs.  Those emergency and recovery models have contingency plans for short-term regional bursts of specific non perishable products into specific areas.  This ain’t that.

The current supply chain disruption is a severe reduction in the availability of ‘food outside the home‘ for a sustained period.  Losing the entire sector is very unusual, unprecedented, unforeseen in scale; and there is no national contingency plan for a nationwide demand on all retail supermarket food products simultaneously.

Once these warehouse fulfillment centers run out, every retail outlet in the country is pulling from the same upstream supplier network.  Again, there’s no need to panic, the total food supply is not short, we all just need to adjust our shopping habits and get a little creative.

If you love seafood there should be plenty of it.  75% of all U.S. seafood was consumed at restaurants.  The seafood sector will, by necessity of its perishable nature, rapidly move into the retail supply-chain. That should mean low prices and plenty of seafood in your neighborhood store.

On the paper-goods production side… there is no model for needing paper towels, kleenex and toilet tissue at the extreme level currently identified.  Production of cleaning products has been increased by every manufacturer and paper-goods suppliers like Georgia Pacific are operating 24/7… but the demand is gobsmacking.

Why the heck has everyone been buying so much toilet tissue?  Weird.

This entry was posted in Big Government, CDC, Coronavirus, Economy, Infectious Disease, media bias, propaganda, Transportation, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

347 Responses to Specific Retail Food Shortages Will Not Soon Improve, But the Overall Food Supply Chain is Very Strong…

  1. tyshab says:

    Get meds and other essentials today!

    Liked by 4 people

    • Co says:

      Can you explain?


    • booger71 says:

      Is this another facebook scam? Plenty of them out there claiming the President is going to order a nationwide lock down


      • tyshab says:

        I don’t do FB. Other indicators–country-wide shelter in place–soon. No harm having meds and essentials if you haven’t already gotten them.

        Liked by 1 person

      • TJ says:

        Some say yes. YMMV

        Liked by 3 people

      • ed bernay says:

        IMHO, the media trying to influence the President’s advisors to make this call. It will give them cover for the hysteria they have been creating. When this is over the State politicians and mainstream media are going to be recognized for the conmen that they are. If the President orders a nationwide lockdown, the politicians and media will have political cover. Don’t do it Mr. President! Tell people to use common sense and good hygiene in their interaction with others but there is no need to shut down business. How will people that have their own businesses, or those that live on commission, tips, and hourly employees have income? The politicians and media are still getting paid even as they support the shutting down of businesses.

        Liked by 1 person

        • frankmystery says:

          Our moron governor in Minnesota complained about having to get everything themselves in his address today🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣. Here said something like “Trump thinks we need to be getting these things on our own…” and then complained and blamed any shortcomings on this surprise he might need to be a leader.

          They absolutely want him to call nationwide lockdown. I think that’s why they’ve been unusually complimentary.

          Liked by 1 person

      • jdondet says:

        I don’t think the president has that kind of authority but I know a lot of people in my town are frightened of that very thing happening. Hence they are buying everything they can.


    • Sentient says:

      Most meds and their precursor chemicals come from China or India. Prescription meds will soon be unavailable.


    • Tulips Moran (@tulipsmoran) says:

      Did that early February as I KNOW our dependence on China producing core/starter/mfr of all OTC and prescription meds… That’s everything from first aid supplies to ibuprophen and all forms of digestive and gas relief. Glad I did – Walmart has pretty much sold out. I also picked up various supplements that boost immune sys. I’m now working on getting sugar – preferably 25lbs that I use to feed my bees.


    • Warrior says:

      Fear mongering nonsense


  2. John-Y128 says:

    I’ve heard the ‘Truckers’ need a hot-plate lunch and some fuel at those ‘closed’ Federal Interstate freeways!

    In other news… the makers of ‘Finish’ have added a CV reagent to their dishwasher rinse product, in case the ‘Quantum’ fails to catch it. The only problem, it’ll cost you that $1200 our Senators are gifting you, but it’s some good chit, and it comes with ‘a coupon’ for a bakers dozen of free donuts, that can be redeemed after the Pandemic, if Dunkin Donuts is still in business.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Bulldog84 says:

    “Why the heck has everyone been buying so much toilet tissue?”
    They are thinking with their fannies, not their brains.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Seneca the Elder says:

      Bulldog- the run on TP just shows that there are a lot more assholes out there than we realized.

      Liked by 11 people

    • Rob says:

      Kind of obvious to me, people do not want to run out of it, for obvious reasons. As soon as everyone tried to top off their supply to last though a temporary shut-down of society, supplies ran out. Until the rest of the households can top off their stock, there will be a shortage.


    • Tulips Moran (@tulipsmoran) says:

      Prepping sites list TP high on the list not only for its use but as barter. The problem is if EVERYONE has a closet full of TP what is it’s barter value. It’s nothing more that a bunch of ignorant sheeple following bullet point recommendations and not thinking through what they may be facing, making a concerted effort to think through their needs and plan accordingly. It has taken me nearly 8 years to prep and I can last over a year… no panic here.

      Liked by 2 people

    • LivLovely101 says:

      70% of the immune system is in the gut, so there may be something to “thinking with their fannies, not their brains”.


    • treestar1313 says:

      Or they just have sh*t for brains.


  4. Steven Waterhouse says:

    I was reading about what supermarkets are doing to help the over 60 people and those that have health issues. This is the thought that came to me. There are a lot of online apps that help you make shopping lists for example,


    This could be coupled with curbside pickup or deliver.
    What do you think.


  5. bigd57 says:

    Since the “food outside the home” suppliers will be losing a lot of restaurant customers, what are they going to be doing with their excess food? Some of that is going to go back into the supply chain. I just think 90% is going to recover in about a month for food availability. There will be certain shortages, but this is a bubble and people can’t keep hoarding more and more each week. The big cities where people don’t eat in are going to be the problem.

    Liked by 4 people

  6. Jeff says:

    And Texas joins the fray…
    Gov. Abbott, whom I admire greatly and consider to be Oval Office material, signed the lockdown order yesterday, effective at midnight tonight.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Sentient says:

      That’s not (yet) what I’d call a lockdown. CA and PA have locked down – all businesses except “life sustaining”. We’re about to find out that a lot of seemingly non-life-sustaining businesses are really life-sustaining. How can you convert a plant to rush out N95 masks or precursor chemicals for Hydroxychloroquine if you need industrial parts from a business that’s been shut down for not being essential? The CA and PA shutdowns are not just an economic nightmare, they’re sand in the gears of the entire industrial supply chain.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Linda K. says:

        The grocery stores are hiring.After years of stretching labor to the max, the moment of truth has come.



      • dwpender says:

        Take a look at the California government website and see the link to the numerous “critical infrastructure” business and industries that are to stay open and producing (e.g. agriculture).

        Governors and media calling these orders Statewide “lockdowns,” “shutdowns,” or “shelter in place orders” are spreading panic, doing a massive public disservice, and will lead to numerous essential industry workers staying home erroneously,

        Part of the problem is that Big Media and State Governments are centered in large cities, where little production of real goods take place. They think and speak as if all of the State operates that way.

        Liked by 6 people

    • TJ says:

      The good news is, some grocery workers are considered public health security and emergency personnel, so they might get free child care depending on how fast they can get TP on the shelves, says Mother Jones.

      Liked by 2 people

  7. Richard says:

    Somewhere out there is a giant mountain of cheese that is a result of overproduction of price-supported milk. Milk doesn’t keep and cheese does so it gets stored in deep freeze.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. cherokeepeople says:

    no seneca it means there are alot more people full of crap then we realized.


  9. Harvey Lipschitz says:

    (China owns Smithfield, so China controls that company)

    Funny that

    Goldman Sachs uses a China pork company for a front.

    Ya’all would be shocked if you had inside info like I do on who owns whom. So Biden told Ukraine fire dude or you don’t get the money.

    “Angels” investors work the same way, they control many Chinese companies by holding the purse strings and the door to American equity.


  10. BuckNutGuy says:

    Ran into a neighbor who is in engineering for a major packaged food manufacturer this morning at Krogers. She says they have plenty of supply, but they can’t quickly change out packaging lines between commercial (restaurants, schools, hospitals, etc) and the retail distribution channel. Certain production lines are set up for certain distribution channels. They are running the retail lines “flat out”

    Liked by 5 people

  11. ivanthenuc says:

    We have enough food to last awhile and are picking up a little extra food and other supplies every time we go to the store. Did buy some extra 9 mm and 12 ga though.

    Liked by 4 people

    • suicdeclutch63 says:

      Same situation for us. I have been able to do our weekly grocery run with no issues and have bought a little extra of key fresh items that won’t go bad in the course of a week and a half. We have a deep back up that we have built up slowly over several years. I have been visiting our local grocery store every couple of days to pick things up, in part just to see how things look. So far 95% of the shelves are full and there are always a lot of people restocking while I shop. Curious how long that lasts. I also topped up on 9mm the other day but we are pretty well supplied in that department as well. I also pre loaded several rifle and pistol magazines as well. I doubt I will need them but if things go bad, they will go bad in a hurry.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Dixie says:

      What kind of steak are they good with?


  12. Rob says:

    As soon as democrats figure out that the food supply will adjust to the changes in downstream use, they will probably try to order the farms to shut down. Wouldn’t want a farmer or field worker to catch a virus (wink wink). They want maximum damage to the economy, starving people, in order to say Trump has failed us and we must now vote for socialist Biden.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. repsort says:

    A large number of American’s can’t afford a $400 emergency. They certainly can’t afford for their jobs to be turned off like a light switch by some virtue-signaling bureaucrat trying to one-up the state next door. The economic impacts of these lock-down orders will kill more than the virus ever possibly could… And for what? To protect a small percentage of our population who are at-risk? If you’re at risk, lock your ass away. Let the rest of us LIVE OUR LIVES.

    Liked by 7 people

  14. repsort says:

    A large number of American’s can’t afford a $400 emergency. They certainly can’t afford for their jobs to be turned off like a light switch by some virtue-signaling bureaucrat trying to one-up the state next door. The economic impacts of these lock-down orders will kill more than the virus ever possibly could… And for what? To protect a small percentage of our population who are at-risk? If you’re at risk, lock your ass away. Let the rest of us LIVE OUR LIVES.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. I’m reporting..
    I just got back from 3 Major grocery stores, (including Wally world).
    So that’s 4..
    There were NO….
    Paper Products..
    NO Milk..
    NO Meat..
    Canned goods
    cooking oil..
    Corn Meal
    (Olive Oil doesn’t count)..
    Frozen Veggies
    (All Frozen Foods)..
    No Bacon nor Sausage
    Lunch meats..
    (I could go on)
    Plenty of Alpo Dog Food & beer though..
    Little signs everywhere.. (limit 1 or 2)..
    visited the Crazy Chicken Lady down the road..
    Got a Dozen Duck Eggs for 4.00 a dozen..
    (She was out of chicken eggs)..

    Liked by 5 people

    • Sentient says:

      Where are you?

      Liked by 1 person

      • Sentient, I’m on the “East Side” of Wilmington, NC, (US-17), (Porters Neck/Scotts Hill area), I visited Harris Teeter, Food Lion, Wal-Mart & Adilies, ALL 3 w/in a mile Radius. All were the “same”.. OUT…

        Liked by 2 people

        • I live in Western NC, outside of Asheville, and yesterday things were in good shape here. Only thing still missing is toilet paper and hand sanitizer. I was able to find everything I needed. Went to Dollar Tree (big shipment was being stocked), Walmart (still restocking), Ingles (meat market slowly recovering, chicken down to drumsticks, toilet paper missing, most bread gone…freezer bread available), Trader Joes (fully stocked), Whole Foods( restocking but not bad). Plenty of fresh produce. We are more remote than you; why is Wilmington having such a problem?

          Liked by 5 people

          • steph_gray says:

            My experience has been that the supermarkets are doing far better than WallyWorld. We walked through one out a few towns west over the weekend during late afternoon and it was an empty cavern. I haven’t been back to my local one since.


    • FrankieZee says:

      I just came back from Publix in St Petersburg Florida and the store is WIPED out. Nothing left in the pasta or rice section. Can goods are wiped out. Meat section was completely emptied, people must be buying anything, no milk, the paper goods section was cleaned out and I mean everything was gone, not just TP. And Publix has huge warehouses in Florida and they can’t keep their shelves stocked. Was going to go shopping in Trader Joes but I pulled into the parking lot and they are only allowing so many people into the store at one time. Line must have been 2 blocks long. This is only going to get worse if this last another month. The longer it goes on, the more people will panic and continue this bizarre buying habit. This is happening country wide so I don’t know how the food processors, the warehouses, the truckers and the stores are going to keep up. And can you imagine if every grocery store only allows so many people in at one time as Trader joes is doing? RIOTS and RIOTS will start springing up.


    • LizzieinTexas says:

      Went on a run this afternoon. HEB was limiting entrance and I didn’t feel like waiting in the rain so went on down the road to Krogers. Got some fresh potatoes, fruit and veggies. Bacon since they had some and 3 gallons of water and a loaf of bread along with a few other misc items. No TP or paper towels but they did have milk, eggs some meat.

      Liked by 2 people

    • I am having the same results here….haven’t found TP since right before everything went down….I’ve been borrowing until I can replace…. Thinking about calling the restaurant food warehouses to see if they are selling off supplies/food that can’t be sold to restaurants that aren’t carry-out…sysco, et al….


  16. Sentient says:

    Stopped at Aldi in Minneapolis, MN suburb last evening. They’re normally open 9AM to 8PM, but they’ve started closing an hour early. Of course, no TP. Plenty of produce. No pasta, rice or beans. Entire aisle of tortillas empty. Still had plenty of milk, eggs and processed meats and cheeses.

    Liked by 2 people

    • TwoLaine says:

      I was going to mention Aldi’s as an alternative, in case others were unfamiliar with them. They usually have excellent produce deals. Good to see they have dairy. We need dairy in our area. Finally got eggs, still no milk.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Roger Duroid says:

        If they want to cause food riotss, shutting down truck rest stops will do it. At some point PDJT has to act to override the insanity of these governors. They hide behind the cloak of “welfare of our citizens” .

        Liked by 6 people

  17. OldParatrooper says:

    Lawmakers and Governors need to consider the impacts of closures on transportation systems. Closing rest areas on the Interstates sounds good, but truckers need a place to rest. Closing truck stops means they have no place to fuel the trucks or themselves. Hopefully we’ll get it right thru trial and error.

    Liked by 7 people

  18. tyshab says:

    Another possibility for food is caterers, lots of functions canceled. Some may have food to sell.


  19. TwoLaine says:

    I am wondering if grocery deliveries wouldn’t make more sense. You get your order in online, real-time, and they have a better idea for planning needs and inventory. This keeps the public home, social distancing and all, and perhaps creates opportunity for a new class of deliveries. OR, thru pickup window and/or drive if they have them, and many do.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. kaste668 says:

    KY has a democrat govenor now, so he has evoked the emergency shut down. Church(s) have been cancelled, grocery stores on short hours, restaurants on drive thru or curb only etc. Gas was $1.69/gal on Monday, not sure when the last time I saw it this low.
    When I went to store on Monday, lots of fresh fruits/veggies etc. However, my Walmart was always bare on Mondays, since they never stocked over the weekends. We aren’t preppers but seem to be prepared. Poor upbringing, so having a full pantry is just something that I have done. I did order Walmart.com for some TP -only 1 large package and a few other things. Had to order my coffee from Amazon….. I am scheduled for Out Patient surgery on the 8th, so just waiting to see if that gets cancelled.

    Liked by 2 people

  21. railer says:

    Detroit western suburbs, still no TP at Meijer, Kroger or Dollar Tree.

    All else appears to be in stock.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. JoAnn Leichliter says:

    It will be interesting to see what happens to the segment of the fresh produce supply that is dependent at least in part on Mexico, which apparently is not doing well in combatting this disease. President Trump has been trying to remedy the state-inflicted water shortage to California farmers (who used to give us much more of our fresh profuce of all kinds), and the importance of this sector may finally become more generally recognized.

    Liked by 3 people

  23. TwoLaine says:

    I used to hit what we used to call the “Day Old Bread Stores” when I was caring for my young grandson. We could spend a little and get a lot, and it was a lot of fun for an adventure. I’d slip him a couple of bucks and he’d usually get a big bag of Cheetos and a big bag of the powdered sugar mini donuts. They had everything under the sun and it was usually quality. They are not huge, which is nice, and you never know what you will find.

    Dollar stores. Another option. Plus Big Lots and what I reclaimed salvage stores.


    Liked by 2 people

  24. dwpender says:

    Sundance — Thanks for your SUPERB reporting. I know you are read in Trump’s inner circle, and I hope those in it take what you’re saying, and the further implications of it, to heart.

    We now have media reporting Newsom’s order as a State “lockdown” and “stay at home” order. It IS NOT. Only a tiny percentage of that population will read the link listing all the vital industries that are exempt, and in which workers should keep working. How many agricultural and other vital sector workers will see the media coverage, and decide to “shelter in place” when the order does not apply to them (in a time where their continued production is needed more than ever).

    POTUS needs to get front and center ASAP and say: There will be NO nationwide “shutdown,” “lockdown,” or “shelter in place” order, not for 2 weeks, 2 months or ANY other period of time. It is absolutely critical that large segments of our relatively young, relatively healthy population keep working and (if idled now) go back to work soon. This country CANNOT stop anything close to its entire productive apparatus.

    Liked by 4 people

  25. MR52 says:

    No Peanut Butter…ouch.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. I think it was on Fox &Friends yesterday morning but a toilet paper mfg in Maine said there is no problem with supply if people would just slow down to normal purchasing habits. I thought it was interesting that the person they interviewed from the company was the president and he looked like he had been up all night working his butt off…toilet paper rolling off the assembly line.

    Liked by 3 people

  27. robert van brunt says:

    Burr HaHaHaHa bet keys are melting on Sundances laptop!


  28. TJ says:

    Informative and perceptive. Thanks Sundance. Lines up with some Neilsen data regarding internet consumer habits.

    COVID-19: Tracking the Impact on FMCG, Retail and Media


  29. Okay update from the northern burbs of Charlotte NC……

    Food Lion should be ashamed of themselves. The mgr. told my husband this morning they haven’t upped their weekly deliveries. They are On the same schedule as before this crisis started. Their distribution center is under forty miles away! Produce very limited but we did get a bag of potatoes. No salads at all. Not very much meat. We got a ham and nothing more. No beef or chicken or pork. No TP, no milk, paper towels, eggs, cheese, or coffee creamer. No bread either.

    Harris Teeter was amazing!! Had lots of chicken and beef and pork. They just got a meat delivery this morning. No TP or paper towels. I was able to snag two boxes of tissues. Dairy was full as was produce and I got everything we needed. They also had almost full shelves of flour and sugar. Plenty of canned soup and veggies too. Bread was plentiful!

    I am going to Public in a bit and will give an update.


  30. theasdgamer says:

    We managed to get 2.5 lbs. of flour yesterday. Frozen roll dough was still available. Of course, corn is too. You can make cornbread easily enough.

    I expect that production of hydroxychloroquine (it’s cheap!) will ramp up and we’ll have to export our excess to Italy. You need to take it when you get the high fever and continue for several days after the fever breaks. That way you get immunity and a relatively mild case, even with preexisting conditions.

    Testing is relatively useless for you personally except to know that you have gained immunity, which is helpful until herd immunity is established. Pulmonologists generally know how to treat the symptoms, but they might not be willing to prescribe hydroxychloroquine for COVID19 until it’s approved by the FDA. If your doc doesn’t prescribe it for you, be sure to ask for a prescription. There’s lots of malpractice around COVID19 being reported in the media, so use due diligence and question your doc.

    I’m not a doctor nor do I play one on tv. However, my daughter, who IS a doctor, not infrequently accepts my opinion about some medical topics which I have researched which are outside her specialty. And, when she was a lowly medical student, this resulted in one of her patient’s lives being saved when she gave a different diagnosis than the attending physician. He diagnosed bacterial pneumonia and she diagnosed a pulmonary embolism. The patient had recently driven for a couple of days with only one stop for rest. A clot formed in his legs due to inactivity and passed to his lung. So my opinion may be worth something.

    Oh, apparently pulmonary fibrosis takes quite a long time to occur–more than from a couple of weeks of inflammation of the lungs. Autopsies which appear to indicate severe fibrosis from COVID19 may actually merely confirm asthma. COVID19 kills by filling your alveoli with fluid/mucus so that you don’t get oxygen/C02 transport from the blood to the lungs and vice versa.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. czarowniczy says:

    Panic, pure panic buying. The Walmart clerk was telling me that they get a load of eggs in and as soon as the are in the case people will but an arm load. Same with milk and TP. We’re still laughing over the city folks buying water, the city water is chlorinated and even before that comes from a aquifer hundreds of feet down and even some people with wells are buying water.

    We still have supplies out here in the rural world, most of us have well-stocked pantries anyway, and we have milk and TP at our Dollar General. It ain’t top-heavy with stuff but it has some and the locals are buying just what they need.to get by. Things are tight but nowhere near as tight as they were after Katrina and the local farms are getting their Spring plantings in, we’ll have local foods online soon. Local chickens are still laying eggs, local cattle are still going to market and the local dairy is still putting out milk. Sad thing is the owner of the dairy is shutting it down probably next month as he’s getting too old to do it anymore and doesn’t have anyone who’s interested in taking it over.

    Liked by 1 person

    • GB Bari says:

      Homeowners or renters whose water comes from a well are dependent upon electrical service to get water. It’s always recommend that they have a emergency supply of potable water in case the grid goes down.

      Homes where the water supply is a municipal system are not much different since the municipal system depends on pumps to maintain pressure in the pipes.

      Liked by 1 person

      • czarowniczy says:

        After Katrina the city/county installed emergency power and larger fuel tanks on the water system and I guaraunteee that everyone out here who has a well has a generator of some type, they all done learned that after both Camille and Katrina passed directly over us – highest measured wind gust in Katrina was measured up here, not in Louisiana.

        Many of us have lakes/ponds and just in case all else fails we have alternatives for water from flushing to drinking. Main problem’s that toilet paper as out forests are mostly pine trees…

        Liked by 1 person

      • woodstuff says:

        GB, you are correct. I wish I could buy a generator that would power my well. No can do now.

        Liked by 1 person

    • woodstuff says:

      czarowniczy, I agree with most everything you say except buying water. In some cases I think it’s silly or downright stupid. There have never been hurricanes here in North TX but water is off the shelves. On the other hand, some of us need purified or distilled water for medical reasons.

      I have the beginnings of gall stones and kidney stones and don’t want to make it worse. The only water I can get is from my well; no city or co-op water is available. The major malfunction is lots of iron and calcium, as well as sand (well is 300 feet deep). It is good for everything except drinking or cooking. If I lived in a city, I would do the same, as I don’t like chlorine. I can’t afford my own purification equipment.

      Liked by 1 person

      • czarowniczy says:

        Understood, but we’re talking regular old bottled water right outta a well and UV sanitized, places here sell precious little actual distilled water, I have to hunt it down during regular times for some of my farm work. I’m seeing local and store brands, both of which still are mineralized to a point I can use ’em for coffee but not some chemical mixes, flying off the shelf.

        It’s panic, and the only tools most folks around here have in their tool boxes are hurricane reflexes and that’s what they’re doing. As I said, ones I’ve talked to are either stocking up due to fear of the ‘water going out(?)’ or the virus getting into the water. In New Orleans where the Water Board can’t seem to keep the water running during good/sane times. I could see it.

        You can check with your county Ag Extension office as many have free well diagnostics thru the university they’re connected with. They just did a free ‘germ’ test on ours and yours may do minerals too for you. Ours is good, comes from the same aquifer the county gets its water from, and all we use regularly is a filter for getting the rust and crunchy stuff out…still too many minerals for chem mixing though, and a commercial ROWPU would cost more than a new car.

        Katrina fueled my paranoia to where we’re set for about 6 months. Took a while but it’s proving itself now.

        Liked by 1 person

        • woodstuff says:

          I have been told from several sources that “Drinking Water” is produced from reverse osmosis. *almost* pure as distilled. (side note: Distilled water is not good for cooling systems in cars and trucks because of stability, seeking electrons that have been stripped, and combine with metals in engines.)

          What is sold as “Spring Water” is only filtered, but will have minerals. The sales pitch for Spring Water is that minerals are included to enhance flavor and provide health benefits somehow. BS

          I found this from the Center for Disease Control:

          Distilled water is the best for drinking and mixing chemicals, as you say. In first year chemistry, we used distilled or de-ionized to mix with whatever.

          My well water is not UV sanitized, but I hope to do this as my budget allows. I want to add other filters when I finish my new well house. Water testing is available for $10-12 from a nearby city. I never checked on the Ag Extension. There is a place close to Walmart that sells distilled water (bring your own container), so I guess I am set. Wish you had such a place. I may never get a ROWPU, but there are small units that might be affordable.

          The panic buying of water by people who otherwise look normal shows how selfish, dumb, and greedy they are while hoarding what they don’t need.


          • czarowniczy says:

            ROWPU water quality depends on the quality of tr ROWPU unit but even then it removes the inorganic minerals from the water (most are) and the misc goop that flows along with it. Your body gets most of its minerals from food that’s converted the inorganic minerals to a more absorbable form. I work on the basis that most bottled water is better than most city water as cities add a laundry list of chemicals to the mix to sanitize it, clean it and make it taste better.

            I’ve mentioned this before but in Egypt many years ago one of our water units was to put on a demo to show how well their big truck-mounted ROWPU units worked. They found a big combination benjo/drainage ditch running thru part of Cairo, it had a dead horse floating in it accompanied by wads of bobbing garbage and human waste as locals used it to dump their bedpans into.

            The ROWPU unit dropped the end of a big hose into the ditch, fired up the unit and out poured clean, drinkable water. Locals came over with pans, buckets and bottles to grab the water, this is the cleanest water they’d seen in a long, long time. The unit CO and staff, and a few of us ‘volunteers’ ponied up to the bar and we all quaffed a glass. It had a slight chlorinated taste but was clean, clean and quite safe and, in all, was still preferable to Miller Light.

            Perhaps you could look at a single countertop ROWPU unit just for drinking/cooking water, don’t need all of the water purified unless you have a rust bacteria problem. We had one in NOLA but it clogged about every 3 months, giving you an idea of the city’s water quality. We figured ‘what the heck’, if the jobs we had didn’t kill us the water sure wouldn’t.

            Liked by 1 person

  32. czarowniczy says:

    So far President Obrador’s doing nada. He’s been doing what most US areas were doing a month ago and is showing no signs of doing much, if anything more. Countries around Mexico are closing their borders but Mexico is not, it’s having a disagreement with other Latin American countries who are stopping flights to and from Mexico.

    We have a simmering tsunami of sickness down there just waiting to hit our southern borders. Trump has to not only close the border but close it decisively, move the military and/or Guard down to SEAL it effectively. I’ve worked that border and it’s going to need a lot of people and equipment there, it’s damned hard to seal but it must be done. And that includes the ‘Native American’ reservations on the border that ‘allegedly’ have deals with cartels to move illegal persons and substances through their tribal grounds and into the US. That sovereign nation status doesn’t give them the right to bring potentially infected illegals into the US.

    The Democrats are talking ‘social distancing’ as the norm so let’s social distance those illegals to no closer than 6 feet south of the Mexican border.


  33. skeinster says:

    This is fascinating. Count on the Treehouse for accurate common-sense analysis.
    So, the gal loading up her cart may be doing so b/c she started out with NO food in the house.
    Maybe some DP’s, frozen dinners, and some mac and cheese in the pantry.

    All we’re missing is eggs- we’re okay for everything else.


  34. kallibella says:

    Today, 3/20/20, I went grocery shopping to Walmart and then Whole Foods. (I should say that my husband and I follow a very simple fresh and whole foods way of eating. We eat 99% carnivore, that is, animal based diet and 0% of pre-packaged, industrial foods or canned foods or any thing that we usually bought in the middle isles of the store).

    From Walmart I got TP (they’re enforcing one package/customer). Was able to also get one package of paper towel, a bundle of three tissue paper and one package of napkins. I also got flushable bathroom wipes!
    They were out of household cleaners or cleaning wipes.
    They had dairy products and dry goods and water.

    From Whole Foods I got ground beef, steaks and a roast. Two dozen eggs. Cheese. Milk. Cream.
    I got water. They had all kinds of fruits and veggies. From there I got asparagus and avocados.
    Their TP and paper goods shelves were empty.

    I live in Illinois, west suburb of Chicago.
    According to the Illinois Department of Public Health, we have 422 confirmed cases of the Chinese virus, 4 people have died, and have tested 3151 people so far. These cases are predictably around the densely populated areas around Chicago and the most immediate suburbs. I live in DuPage County were we have 54 confirmed cases.

    Hubby and I will continue to do what we can to avoid infection. Hubby’s employer has not closed office though they may. Not sure. I am a stay-a-home wife and long-distance mother to a son.
    We are people of faith. We trust in God and our Lord Jesus Christ. Though this is going on, we know this too shall pass!

    Liked by 2 people

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