Dr. Fauci’s Mysterious Math – The Quantifying Today Reflects Where We Were A Week Ago – Today Cannot Be Quantified Until Next Week…

Let me say up front, there’s something very sketchy about the wordy explanations provided by National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases (NIAID) Director Dr. Anthony Fauci.  Listen/watch or read what he says below.

Encapsulating Dr. Fauci’s position:  Data on the coronavirus assembled today doesn’t reflect what is actually taking place today, but rather reflects where we were several days ago…. OK, that part makes sense (there’s a lag).

He then goes on to say what is actually happening today will not be included in data until we arrive at a place a few days from now when today’s reality is quantified.  Again, that reasonably makes sense…  However….

The media is/are reporting on coronavirus impacts in real time.  There is no delay in what the media are reporting from various places around the nation.  The media reporting reflects what is taking place today; right now… and what the media is reporting today is not worse than the data Fauci is explaining.

Meaning if Dr. Fauci was correct, and if the coronavirus data (the reports of spread) was behind by several days from the reality of today; then what the media would be reporting (the on the ground reality of the spread today) would be significantly worse (higher incidents) than Fauci’s data, which he claims is lagging several days behind….

The problem with that supposition – The media ground reports do not reflect a higher incidence of coronavirus spread than Fauci’s data today.

The concept of “flattening” the virus curve; the presumptive reason for social distancing; is based on a theory to extend the spread of COVID-19 to a lesser incident rate over a longer duration, thereby lessening the burden on the U.S. healthcare system.  Hence, ‘flatten’ the spike in infections.

Put another way: “Flattening” means the same number of people eventually contract the virus, only they do so over a longer period of time, and the healthcare system can treat everyone because the numbers do not rise to level where the system is overloaded.  In theory that seems to make sense.

However, no-one is asking: what is the current stress level on the healthcare system right now?  Where are we in that capacity?… and what is normal capacity level during a high-level flu outbreak?… and Where are we when compared against that baseline?

The premise to extend the virus duration in an effort to lower the infection rate and spread the virus over a longer period of time needs to measured against: (a) where the healthcare system is at any given moment; and (b) under traditional high-flu seasons where are we during those historic events.

STRESS LEVEL – The healthcare ‘system’ per se, is expending an awful lot of time on mitigation efforts.  As Dr. Birx noted: the current negative test rate for coronavirus among those showing symptoms who are tested is 98 to 99 percent.  That means of all the people taking coronavirus tests, 98/99 out of 100 are symptomatic (they are sick) but they are not infected with coronavirus.  They are normal flu cases.

Our healthcare “system” is expending an incredible amount of resources on a mitigation effort.  According to Dr. Birx and the test results 99 percent of those mitigation efforts are not engaging with coronavirus.  They are dealing with regular flu (perhaps a strong flu).

If you extract the mitigation effort from the overall effort, the current stress level on the healthcare system doesn’t seem to be overwhelming.  What is stressing the system is a coronavirus mitigation effort with a rate of 99 percent testing negative.

Dr. Fauci’s theory is self-fulfilling.

If the viral spread never exceeds the capacity of the healthcare system to deal with it, he can claim success.  Look, our flattened curve worked.

However, when contrast against flu outbreaks, no-one knows what the COVID-19 capacity threshold is within the healthcare system.  There’s no way to disprove Fauci’s theory.

Given the nature of the baseline for overall U.S. sanitation and hygiene, which is significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the higher standards of food safety (U.S. is the world leader); again significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the nature of the U.S. healthcare system (more capacity per person); is it really a fair comparison to overlay a COVID-19 outbreak, without also overlaying a traditional flu outbreak?

Any theory that cannot be scientifically tested; and is simultaneously self-fulfilling; is, by its nature, a false theory.

This is not to say that Dr. Anthony Fauci is intentionally misleading anyone; however, it is absolutely true that no-one will be able to quantify if trillions of dollars of economic wealth lost; and trillions more in economic activity lost; and trillions more in deficit spending; and that might all be done just to follow the fantastical whims of a doctor who is directing the mitigation of an ordinary flu-virus/season, and appears to be quite full of his own sense of self-importance.

98/99% negative test rate should alarm everyone.  We’ve shut down the biggest economic system in the world for a virus that is not appearing in 99% of the people who are sick.

DR. BIRX: Yeah. No, thank you, Mr. Vice President, for mentioning that because, as I told you, in South Korea there are 250,000-plus tests. About 96-plus percent were negative. So — and that was with symptoms.

So we’re working very hard integrating everything they have learned about symptoms and screening, and that is going into the development of this website. So it’s not just a simple checkbox website. It’s actually going to go through critical symptoms. And that’s why we’re giving ourselves the weekend to get it put up.

So far, in the United States, from LabCorp and Quest, they’re running about a 99 to 98 percent negativity. This always worries me because I’ve worked in public health a long time. When you tell someone they’re negative, yes, it’s reassuring, but the last thing we want is them so reassured that they stopped practicing these critical practices that are going to protect all of us.

This epidemic will be stopped at the community level. Those are the individuals — it’s Americans and their response that will get us over this hump. And that’s why, yes, we’ll have testing available. We’ll have to know that many of them are going to be negative, and you’re going to have to help us carry that message that that means, just at that moment, you’re negative, you need to continue to do all of your protection and protection of others to ensure you remain there. (read more)

♦ FACT: 98 to 99% of the American people tested, who have symptoms (similar to flu), test negative for the Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19).  We are spending hundreds of billions, and disrupting all facets of life and liberty, to avoid a virus almost no-one carries.

Here’s SKETCHY Dr. Fauci’s explanation:

DR. FAUCI: Thank you very much, Dr. Birx. So just to connect with what I mentioned to you in previous discussions in this room — and Dr. Birx said it very well — that in order to be able to contain and curtail this epidemic to not reach its maximum capability, we have a two-pillar approach, one of which I believe has been very effective in preventing the substantial seeding, and namely the travel restrictions that we’ve discussed many times in this room.

The other, equally, if not more important, is when you have infection in your own country, which we do. And you know I could read the numbers, but they’re really, essentially, what we’ve seen yesterday: incremental increases, both globally as well as in the United States, with the curve doing that.

So therefore, the kinds of things that we do are containment and mitigation.

This — what we’re mentioning now — the guidelines, when you look at them carefully, I believe if the people in the United States take them seriously, because they were based on some rather serious consideration back and forth, some may look at them and say they’re going to be really inconvenient for people.

Some will look and say, well, maybe we’ve gone a little bit too far. They were well thought out.

And the thing that I want to reemphasize, and I’ll say it over and over again:

When you’re dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are. That’s not word speak.

It means:

If you think you’re here, you’re really here because you’re only getting the results; therefore, it will always seem that the best way to address it were to be doing something that looks like it might be an overreaction. It isn’t an overreaction. It’s a reaction that we feel is commensurate, which is actually going on in reality.

So take a look at the guidelines. Read them carefully. And we hope that the people of the United States will take them very seriously, because they will fail if people don’t adhere to them. We have to have, as a whole country, cooperate and collaborate to make sure these get done.

Thank you.

If the coronavirus spread never exceeds the capacity of the healthcare system to deal with it, he can claim success.  Look, our flattened curve worked.  However, we’ve also destroyed the U.S. economy to do so, and we’ve wiped out tens of trillions in U.S. wealth.

If Dr. Fauci’s magic theories are correct, then by THIS Friday there should be tens of thousands of people testing positive for Coronavirus.  If not….

Here’s the new Fauci recommendations:

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533 Responses to Dr. Fauci’s Mysterious Math – The Quantifying Today Reflects Where We Were A Week Ago – Today Cannot Be Quantified Until Next Week…

  1. gda53 says:

    My gut feeling is they don’t have sufficient information yet to plug into their scenarios.

    Until they get a handle on the testing, which could be by the end of the week, but certainly by the end of 15 days, we won’t have a gauge as to whether we’ll be doing triage on the elderly and infirm in the cities (as in Italy) or just experiencing a manageable but busy swell.

    “no-one is asking: what is the current stress level on the healthcare system right now?’ – I’m sure the taskforce has the answer to that, because that is an important question. But most important is where will it be in 2 weeks? 3 weeks? We need more information from extensive testing nationwide.

    Hoping Dr. Fauci is just bone-weary and misspoke. I take some comfort in believing he is not making these decisions alone.

    Better sanitation and hygiene, higher standards of food safety, higher healthcare capacity per person. Plus, less than half the incidence of smoking and much lower level of air pollution (China 10X; Korea 3X). Plus no large area of the country hooked into China’s Belt & Road, with 1,000’s of Chinese (originally from Wuhan) returning from vacation in the old country carrying the virus, at a time when China was keeping mum about it.

    Italy is not our fate. But it doesn’t need to approach Italian numbers to be bad nonetheless.

    Kind of ironic if we tank the economy over a loss of even, say 10,000 lives, when the flu in a bad year takes seven times that amount. That would be less deadly than 2009’s H1N1 Flu Pandemic, but we didn’t stop the economy for that one.

    Once those tests generate some numbers, we can but hope for swift action to get the economy moving again if doom and gloom seems unlikely. And those areas of concern can be identified and dealt with separately.

    Liked by 2 people

    • mike says:

      F’g make the simple cheap chloroquines, like China and SoKorea used, available, Also make 24 hr high dose IV vitamin C available (500-700 mg/kg tid per Thomas Levy MD based on the other Coronaviruses including SARS), and you are good for most problems. The rest is noise by arsonists burning our Rights down to the ground, government by created emergency.

      For the US, I got the chloroquines going for my kids, because 24 hr IV C will be a problem in most areas if the major hospitals don’t cooperate – there are layers of regulations for clinics to stay open longer and longer up to 24 hrs, as well as the vitamin C disinformation campaign to ignore the real therapeutic story details.

      Like

      • southernmom19 says:

        Can you clarify? What do you mean you got the chloroquine going for your kids? I know it’s effective, but isn’t it a prescription?

        Like

    • zekness says:

      italy was about 10 days late in ordering lockdown…

      the US is about the same (8-14 days late)

      our “fate” is decided precisely in accordance to the lesson of this virus pandemic.

      doing too little will all but guarantee that the peak happens and overruns the health providers and kills alot of people.

      this is the lesson of this virus and any killing pandemic.

      if one “waits” to take action…you will always be too late to mitigate effectively against the threat.

      plans and actions need to be establish NOW, regardless of “testing” schedules…

      the reality is that at current rate of production and distibution of test kits, it will take 70 years to test every single citizen in the US.

      if that reality does not sink in fully..let me say it another way.

      by the time we get 1/10 of the citizens tested….this virus will have assumed a trajectory far more broad…will have the opportunity of time to mutate into another strain..and former tests will need to re-tooled and citizens re-tested….

      starting to understand the risk of making policy based on testing?

      actions must be made now.

      this virus is showing what it is capable of doing.

      we are wasting alot of time…time that we can neither afford to sacrifice and the lives of millions that will ultimately be our reward for doing things very wrong…or too late to be or value..

      what we are seeing right now, whether intentioned or not, is recklessness.

      I predicted this…as many others, including Dr. Fauci…He’s written about it extensively.

      He noticed this Ebola 1976…..the virus pandemic will always win unless a region can act swiftly and establish heavy quarantine restrictions….waiting for tests, waiting for vacinnes…waiting for people to get their act together and actually witness some immediate deaths in the family and community is the way you go about guanrateeing that a pandemic is going to go nuclear.

      we are about 1-3 weeks away from that moment when things are going to go sideways.

      if a restriction order is established…people will need to follow it.

      therein lies the answer and also the complicate nature of pandemics meets the human condtion.

      welcome to the new black swan of 2019…now continuing largely unabatted….all for a lack of serious risk management strategies.

      Does it really matter what the economy looks like if the very people that depend in it, are quite dead?

      or more squarely…how many people is the magic number that “we” can sacrifice in order to maintain a economy that can be fixed?

      Liked by 1 person

      • John Smith says:

        You need to calm down. Most people do not die from the virus. Kids don’t even seem to be able to catch it. Which is awesome. Only about 20% of people actually catch it and out of those only a small number actually have issues. So please stop freaking out.

        Liked by 10 people

      • signer1 says:

        Every year the common cold or flu will sweep through nursing homes. A few of the patients die, most live. This not a deadly virus to 99.9%. Not ebola, and yes, Corona virus takes its course , like any other viral infection.
        Fauci gives contradicting info. I’m not even going to call them facts because some of his answers are just his conjecture. Meanwhile, shutdowns are ruining small businesses and causing real hardships with the average family.

        Liked by 6 people

      • signer1 says:

        Every year the common cold or flu will sweep through nursing homes. A few of the patients die, most live. This not a deadly virus to 99.9%. Not ebola, and yes, Corona virus takes its course , like any other viral infection.
        Fauci gives contradicting info. I’m not even going to call them facts because some of his answers are just his conjecture. Meanwhile, shutdowns are ruining small businesses and causing real hardships with the average family.

        Like

      • Sharpshorts says:

        The plan is to destroy the economy because 98% to 99% of the world depends on it…Only the 1% and totally self sufficient can survive if the plan works.

        You have asked a non sequitur question as if it was rhetorical:
        “Does it really matter what the economy looks like if the very people that depend in it, are quite dead?”
        Sort of like asking: does a tree that falls in the forest make a sound if nobody hears it?

        Liked by 4 people

      • Tired Old Nurse says:

        The answer is simple. 20000 dead. Because that is how many die each year of the flu (more or less) and we don’t freak out over that. This is over reaction on at a level I have never seen in my life. Calm the Hell down.

        Liked by 2 people

    • spinoneone says:

      Remember, when you are tested for WuFlu and are negative that just means you don’t have it NOW but it does NOT mean you are immune.
      The death rates for this thing are all over the place, ranging from less than one percent in South Korea to over nine percent in Italy. Those numbers reflect both the better health care system in Korea and the relatively older population in Italy [death rate for over 70 age group is 19%]. It appears that the world-wide death rate for children under age 12 is about zero. Doesn’t mean they don’t get it or can’t transmit it, but they seldom die from it.

      Liked by 1 person

    • John Allan Wilson says:

      I’m done with Fauci and turning off Fox. Enough with the scare mongering and enough with graphs with no data points. Fauci loves the camera and the surgeon general is starting to run his mouth too. VP Pence should stop trotting out the faces and maybe just publish data to be spread factually without panic. IMO.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Rj says:

      I thought Event 201 provided all this information to Gates the U.N. and John’s Hopkins and every entity involved ? Or are we in one of the many scenarios being played out ?

      Like

  2. In the Land of Poz says:

    The test must also have a currently unknown false POSITIVE rate, below 1 percent would be exceptionally good for a medical test. So if 100x more people with flu than coronavirus are showing up, this means the number of false diagnoses (have cold or flu, get diagnosed as coronavirus) is potentially as large or larger than the number of genuine cases.

    i.e., “number of cases” is highly overestimated and hard to know with any precision. The error is larger than the number being estimated.

    Liked by 5 people

    • In the Land of Poz says:

      By the way, if large numbers of people get screened, just as a precaution, then those false positives that are flukes can be handled by re-testing. But if a percent or two (or 5 or 10) of people with flu who get tested have something in them that makes the coronavirus test light up, re-tests will give the same result and the reported case numbers will be bogus.

      Liked by 1 person

      • zekness says:

        the current PCR test is very sensitive to SARS, MERS and COVID-19…it was designed to be sensitive to all three, but only those….and it makes sense that this test was re-tooled in this way (which helps to explain why the US did NOT follow the WHO guidance in developing the field test….it did at first, but then realized…no…the test will need to be re-tooled for a much higher sensitive geared primarily for the COVID-19 virus, but ALSO for SARS and MERS…(because we want to know as early as possible in the field that any of these three may be in the wild…)

        in the lab, where these tests are sent for confirmation/falsification examinations….is where the contagion is actually identified….

        Dr. Fauci is talking “around” this aspect but the science and method is on solid footing.

        The lab will establish exactly what genomic profile is at play..and it will confirm the field PCR test result…or not.

        for the front line, the immediate actions are to take the PCR test result of positive-positive and start quarantine and begin contact tracing..and further testing…they do not wait for the lab results….but one has to realize, currently this model is based totally on people reporting feeling ill.

        the reality is this model does not work effectively against a virus that has a long incubation period, mild symptoms or none at all realize a situation where many people are just not going to report illness…and become super-spreaders. and the days during incubation where no symptoms exist, they are shedding and transmitting.

        then you compound this problem with the reality that testing is not feasible for “not sick” surveillance….random sampling yes….but that is like dragging a net in an ocean, catching 4 fish and assuming that will somehow give you a good idea about how many fish are in the ocean….it is a very problematic and bad way to steer pandemic control measures, or to count fish!

        then you have the problem that PCR tests are very sensitive (accurate) but calibrated to only these three c-virus and only the current known strains….we know this SARS-Cov-19 will eventually mutate….it probably already has beyond the L and S known strains…will the PCR test be sensitive in it current formula to register precision sensitivity…? we have to assume it will not, based on former experiences….but if we are not taking “not ill” random sample AT SCALE…we will never know until it far too late to get those PCR tests re-tooled..

        any way you cut it…we are always going to be looking back in time….and those delays will result in an always late reactionary effort…this will not express the goal of limiting the and trajectory of this pandemic.

        the ONLY way to satisfy a goal of limiting this pandemic is to begin a very far reaching set of restrictions right now….travel bans domestically….shut down all non-essential travel and transmission routes….and hope and pray that citizens start taking action to self isolate and do all of the things they can to limit social contact.

        possible? probably not…sigh..

        just stating how this pandemic can be controlled in a far more effective way.

        the downside…yes, the economy and people get distressed..

        the upside…far fewer people are dead

        Like

        • sundance says:

          I doubt your realize how many people die due to the economic downturns.

          Financial despair, worry and anxiety kills far more than a virus. Over 2,000 per day due to overdoses alone.

          Liked by 13 people

          • This. Net-Net what is the impact. We shouldn’t problem solve in a vacuum, it’s multivariate. Yesterday’s guidance and the one-way ratchet to this whole affair is driving my non-compliance meter higher.

            Liked by 1 person

          • glissmeister says:

            Yep, and 250,000 per year die from medical errors alone. The big whopper in re COVID-19 is the “official test” Obama’s gang gave the monopoly to reportedly turned out to have a 47.9% false positive error rate. The new test is expected to be 2-4% false positive error rate. Nearly all the data on “cases” collected so far is massively corrupted.

            Infection is not illness. It’s wrong to conflate the two. Most who become apparently ill from Covid-19 have minor to moderate symptoms of discomfort.

            Severe morbidity and mortality are the cases that matter most. It seems ARDS is doing the preponderance of the killing, not Covid-19. Those not talking about the preexisting tuberculosis epidemics in Wuhan and Northern Italy need to start telling people the truth about the root cause of severe morbidity and mortality being mycobacterium and ARDS, not Covid-19.

            There also needs to be an honest discussion about chronic and latent tuberculosis among unlawfully infiltrating cross-border migrant populations. Anyone mentioned the high tuberculosis rates coming across the southern border?

            Liked by 3 people

          • SherryS says:

            Thanks, Sundance. The stress of not working/having a paycheck is much more problematic than my worry about exposure to the Coronavirus. The Wuhan Virus is going to make me a little sick; not working is going to cause my family to not be able to eat and pay bills. People that don’t live paycheck to paycheck are awful frivolous with their advice right now. Thanks for the sanity!!

            Like

        • Fauci is incompetent, as his own hapless political-speak shows, to any experienced in dealing with such political figureheads can understand. All he knows is vaccinations, so that is the only answer for him; he is naturally biased against personal responsibility for dealing with a viral outbreak, rather than imposed mass solutions which assume a brainless population.

          If 98 to 99% of the population don’t get it, as noted in the article above, and out of that only 1.6 to 1.7 percent die (a number I have seen most lately reported), and not counting the 24% of the population that are children and don’t get sick from it, then the total number of deaths to be expected would be between about 40 and 80 thousand, much like a typical flu season. But the longer this goes on, the farther and farther down the death rate has gotten, and we are still not accounting for an informed public that knows to stop, or seriously tackle, the virus quickly at the very slightest first sign of actual individual infection, in the nose and back of the mouth. I won’t be surprised if this turns out to be substantially less than a typical flu season, particularly since the political indicators of a fake hysteria — absolutely characteristic of the Left, since Obama was in office — are so obvious (to those of us who have kept our eyes open, and reasoned logically, not emotionally and according to a political cult mentality).

          Liked by 4 people

  3. Retired IG says:

    Dear Sundance and assorted Treepers,
    Woke up today searching for a phrase in my mind. Finally grasped it: Martial Law. – of the self-inflicted kind. Never have encountered such a mind bomb of FEAR being inflicted on people, not just around the U.S. but in many countries around the world.
    The message seems to be “No One is Really Sick in the U.S from this virus But you should stop living your life as per usual. Just in case “someone” does.” Now that is a message that is SICK. ”
    Read this. Indeed, it took a LOT of mental stamina to follow through on it:
    Event 201 Unfolds: Covid-19 Action Platform = Global Government
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/event-201-unfolds-covid-19-action-platform-global-government
    And no, markets aren’t crashing around the world because of a virus. Its about the oil. Putin is once again the boogey man. refusing to join in the club. That link is also on Zero Hedge. But I’m too old and tired to go look for it.
    Too bad President Trump seems to have fallen for this charade. I pray not hook, line and sinker. He’s already going to win the next election by a landslide. Wish he would have been more like his Winston Churchil-lian self and not speak about the “weaponiized flu” so grijmly.. But then if he didn’t speak strongly enough to raise the hairs on every human living on the planet, he would not be a “Good Preisident” who CARES. What a clusterfuck for him. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

    Liked by 7 people

    • Barry Hoffman says:

      As Sec Def Rumsfeld once stated: “There are known knowns. There known unknowns. And then there are the unknown unknowns”. All government data analysis lags and is particularly susceptible to the last sentence of the statement. Political correctness demands government “respond” even if their data is not complete and decisions are still very much a shot-in-the-dark.

      Like

  4. dallasdan says:

    Fauci appears to be enjoying his exposure and celebrity too much to suit me. Many members in our medical community credit him for his combination of medical and management skills, but are very critical of his craving to be in the spotlight.

    Liked by 5 people

    • zekness says:

      he was selected by this president to take the lead….if this president has lost faith in his duty, you would surely have heard from trump about it..

      no?

      Like

      • Reading Fauci’s words does not give me concern. It’s the guidelines that are a little off. My thought as a Holiday Inn virologist is self quarantine if you have serious health issues. Otherwise wash your hands and cough into your sleeve.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Reading Fauci’s words does not give me concern. It’s the guidelines that are a little off. My thought as a Holiday Inn virologist is self quarantine if you have serious health issues. Otherwise wash your hands and cough into your sleeve.

        Like

      • dallasdan says:

        My comment addressed his self-aggrandizing persona, not his administrative talent, which I complimented. Reading comprehension is your friend. Yes?

        Like

  5. joeknuckles says:

    Looking at the expressions on their faces in that picture, it looks like Trump, the surgeon general and Seema Verma are looking at the nut job like they want to slap him. The other lady on the right always looks scared.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. bessie2003 says:

    My first reaction when hearing the “15 days to slow the spread” was that President Trump gave the task force 15 days to prove up the risk/benefit of this shut down or he’s ending it.

    This post makes a lot of sense. It reminds me of a time when working as a manager dealing with accountants, they never wanted to go outside their set parameters budget-wise while at the same time working with purchasers who had a task to cover the unique changing needs of their departments so were always crying for the extra funds to take advantage of situations as they came up. and this approach to social distance has a similar hallmark of that battle between accounting which continually narrowed the purse strings in order to stay within their self-desired budget while ignoring all the other needs and opportunities at play.

    15 days also sounds about the time limit that most Americans would be willing to put up with this on the hopes that truly lives are being saved, after that would guess all bets are off.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Ned Zeppelin says:

      My feeling as well. Better safe than sorry, but this is about the next 2 weeks, not 2 months. I keep looking at Italy and I think that is real, and really bad. We don’t want that here. I will trust PDJT on this one.

      Liked by 4 people

  7. Fools Gold says:

    To bad they don’t include counties with infections and death rate in the status updates on CDC website. I’d like to know if this virus is airborne or not. Just saying….Historic events occurring world wide with slow to no data bugs this one ALOT! Are the stars involved or trusting data from someone anywhere near DC?

    Like

  8. dayallaxeded says:

    The media reports are no more current than CDCs reports, indeed, media is necessarily a little behind, bc labs are reporting to Drs and CDC, then media get the info. So everyone is operating with a little. lag but generally on the same time line. So what does that time line show? For certain populations, like elderly in nursing homes, it’s bad and extra measures need to be taken. For the general populace, not so much, since we’re running 98-99% negative tests. Apparently, prior, non-death knell precautions were and are performing fine. All this self-serving, self-fulfilling authoritarian BS is just that, but there will be no way to prove it. My allergy headache is getting worse! Must be corona w/ Lyme disease!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Fools Gold says:

      Nursing homes attacked this problem a week and half ago and are on it it full bore. Maybe you should try to visit one….

      Like

      • Yadent says:

        At the moment it’s bad in a nursing home in Washington State……….

        Like

        • Fools Gold says:

          I know the story. Daughter is in charge of Nursing/rehab facility at a good one in my Tn district. Patients are in lock down in their rooms. Physical therapy is now being performed in patients room.

          Liked by 1 person

      • dayallaxeded says:

        Search Lambeth House, New Orleans. All nursing homes are not created equally. But most people of advanced age, living in relatively close quarters with not much outside time have got to be at higher risk than the public at large for infectious diseases. It’s just common sense. And yes, I have visited quite a few nursing and “managed care” facilities over the years. At 60+ myself, I’ve seen 3 generations of loved ones pass and have been there at the end for those I could. Soon it’ll be my turn.

        Like

  9. Outerlimitsfan says:

    You know what really is disturbing?

    Senator Cotton today going on every show and using his Twitter posts that rival Comrade Bernie. “We must give $1000 to every American right this second, and likely much more for months…. ” The Nancy Pelosi hill doesn’t go far enough, not even close”……..”We need a national lockdown now”.

    Unreal.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Outerlimitsfan says:

      Oh and a national lockdown would include a state like West Virginia without even one confirmed case yet obviously.

      Liked by 1 person

      • amwick says:

        I just heard about a relief proposal to provide money to parents forced to stay home with children.. The more children, the more money… or something… That part was a bit baffling.

        Liked by 1 person

      • MGR says:

        Husband’s doctor canceled appointments for this morning because they are only taking acute symptoms patients. I asked how many so far and she was silent. Our schools are also closed.

        Liked by 1 person

  10. boomerbeth says:

    Drybones says it best:

    Liked by 1 person

  11. boomerbeth says:

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Hello Kitty says:

    Dr. Birx showed where she was in the pecking order, today. When a reporter specifically asked her to answer a question, she said, “Dr. Fauci is my mentor. So, I have to let him answer…”

    Why is she even there, then? Just to stand and nod her head?

    Would love to know WHO FAUCI’s MENTER IS.

    Hmmm…..

    Liked by 2 people

      • Rhi says:

        Ooooh Sundance! Mengele- wow.
        Could be the Dr is of the same genre, definitely a NWO chaos induced mass panic not seen world wide ever before.

        Strong delusions?;
        ◄ 2 Thessalonians 2 ►
        King James Bible Par ▾
        The Man of Sin
        1Now we beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, and by our gathering together unto him, 2That ye be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled, neither by spirit, nor by word, nor by letter as from us, as that the day of Christ is at hand. 3Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition; 4Who opposeth and exalteth himself above all that is called God, or that is worshipped; so that he as God sitteth in the temple of God, shewing himself that he is God. 5Remember ye not, that, when I was yet with you, I told you these things? 6And now ye know what withholdeth that he might be revealed in his time. 7For the mystery of iniquity doth already work: only he who now letteth will let, until he be taken out of the way. 8And then shall that Wicked be revealed, whom the Lord shall consume with the spirit of his mouth, and shall destroy with the brightness of his coming: 9Even him, whose coming is after the working of Satan with all power and signs and lying wonders, 10And with all deceivableness of unrighteousness in them that perish; because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved. 11And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie: 12That they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness.

        Excellent analysis as always Sundance! Thank you!

        Like

      • Bromdale says:

        Interesting point. Professor Francis Boyle has referred to the work on bioweapons undertaken at the University of North Carolina and elsewhere as ” Nazi science”. It brings no benefit to humanity, only harm. On the basis of information available in published papers, it is known that the work on what is now known as COVID-19 was funded in part by the NIH, where Dr Fauci has a senior post, with specific responsibilities in the field of immune-related diseases. So yes, you could argue that there’s a connection there.

        Like

      • First chuckle of the day (5:42 am, CT).

        But you misspelled “OBAMA”…

        Like

  13. Skeeball says:

    If this thing is as bad as Dr. Maddow and Nurse Lemon claim, then we should be seeing homeless people dropping dead like flies everywhere within two weeks. If that doesn’t happen, then some people have some explaining to do.

    Liked by 4 people

  14. gildie says:

    Spent the day yesterday at a NYU hospital (10hrs, brought a neighbor in for a procedure) & asked any nurse or helper or orderly I ran into, “Where ya keep all the corona patients? In the basement? A special Wing?”
    There were none.
    Noone even heard of a corona patient being admitted.
    Meanwhile, everyone’s walking around with masks on(except the staff!) & using the hand sanitizer every 20 feet.
    It’s not adding up.

    Liked by 10 people

    • JoAnn Leichliter says:

      That is one of the most interesting observations I have read. Thank you, gildie.

      Like

    • John says:

      I work in a children’s hospital. Same thing: masks everywhere, hand sanitizer everywhere. They’re limiting visitors to 2 per patient, using the digital thermometers on people’s foreheads. Some of our doctors and other staff are “practicing social distancing” or just working from home now. All non-emergency surgery has been delayed for two weeks, giving the surgeons a nice little vacation. Yet we have no COVID-19 patients. None. Nor have we ever had any.

      It reminds me of the old joke about how hard you’ve worked to get rid of mountain trolls (or some other mythical monster). Obviously someone will call you on it and say, “I’ve never seen a mountain troll,” to which you tell them, “You’re welcome.” COVID is our mountain troll.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Rhi says:

      “It’s not adding up.”
      Agreed. Maybe the President knows a biological weapon was released and is doing everything in his power to protect the people, economy be damned? Or may it be he knows this is manipulated by the globalists to crash the worlds economic system, remove him from office and bring in the NWO?im not sure what his intel is but I pray every day that the Lord grant him wisdom in these unprecedented times. Come what may, ‘thy will be done…’.

      Liked by 4 people

    • Seneca the Elder says:

      Goldie- thanks. Just as I suspected. The Emperor has no clothes. Why aren’t they talking about how our hospitals are doing? Where are all the patients?

      I am with Sundance on this one, totally sceptical about a bunch of bureaucrats that we never heard of before, who are now treated like rock stars. I really want to find out more about who exactly the people in this freak show are.

      Is it possible we’re dealing with another Col. Vindman or other holdovers from the Hussein administration? Is this the real, ultimate “insurance policy”?

      If Sundance smells a rat, or even implies that he does, that is nothing to sneeze at. (pun intended). Let’s not forget that SD is one of the foremost journalists of our day. His research, analysis and reporting are first rate.
      I hope that SD will get on this story with the same tenacity we’ve seen with some of his other exposes.
      I live in the People’s Republic of NY where El Supremo Cuomo is reveling in his newfound and seemingly unlimited powers. We don’t HAVE 15 days. The cure is MUCH worse than the damn disease.

      You want proof? If this epidemic is so horrific, so dangerous, so out of control that our entire way of life has to be destroyed to “save” us, then why doesn’t Cuomo & the DEM legislature LIFT THE BAN ON PLASTIC BAGS??

      Liked by 4 people

  15. Charles Dodgson says:

    I was initially very skeptical, and I do think people are overreacting individually. And maybe the government is, and maybe not. It went exponential in Italy but is now flattening, and has since gone exponential across Europe. It has also gone exponential in the US, just still early stages. At current rate of spread in the US, it increases 10x every 8-9 days which is similar to Europe. If the curve does not flatten we will be at 10k cases in a few days, then 100k the next week, then 1M the following week.

    The data showing the curve is on worldometer, and a nice comparison to other diseases on informationisbeautiful, and it is sobering. Currently looks a lot like Spanish flu, except nearly all fatalities amongst the elderly. The kids and the workforce will be fine. But it may well take out a lot of the elderly, retired population where death rate ranges from 8%-15%.

    I’m not stocking up on TP, but I do think we owe it to our elders to try to prevent the spread. it may turn out to be no big deal, but the Spanish flu was no joke.

    Liked by 3 people

  16. MelH says:

    I haven’t time to read this blog tonight but must say this about the epidemic, We seniors are NOT getting out of here alive, and we KNOW it. If we contract this virus , and need a respirator, most, maybe ALL of us , have signed the latest document that, in essence ,tells everyone to LET US DIE! We do not want a respirator over which our family might one day have to say “Turn that off!” In citing the shortage of ventilators, NO pundit has said that even ONE respirator has been used, so far.
    The tragedy of this epidemic is going to be caused by the Democrats who are putting politics over Americans, screaming “FIRE” in a crowded theater. They have their “Russia Russian” and are THRILLED with promoting it, the insane fools! I hope Pelosi and Schumer and Schiff burn in HELL, for their corrupt efforts. Why not investigate the source of their fortunes, by the way?

    Liked by 4 people

  17. BlackC says:

    While appreciative of the skepticism, let me post a caution:

    In Japan, and particularly with the Diamond Princess cruise ship, people showing symptoms or otherwise at risk due to close contact with confirmed cases tested negative multiple times before a positive result.

    In many of these cases the pattern was: Initial symptoms => test negative => symptoms went away but then came back with a vengeance several days later => test negative/positive => negative testers’ symptoms continued or got even worse => test positive

    I am not sure if this also occurred in other countries, or if there was a problem with the test, etc., but I would not rule out a “viral load threshold” for a positive result.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. The Boss says:

    So about 1 in 100 sick persons tests positive for CV?
    Then, these people are the real one-percenters who control our economy!
    And to be honest, I have a problem with THESE one-percenters.

    Like

  19. mazziflol says:

    Why do I feel like we as a Nation, are getting #schlonged?

    Liked by 8 people

  20. hawkins6 says:

    How would Dr. Faucci’s “Containment and Mitigation theories” quantify this:
    I don’t know what is worse. The couple buying the entire meat section of the store or the store manager that did not implement a personal limit to meat purchases.

    Save-On-Foods in Lake Country, B.C. (Castanet News)

    Liked by 1 person

    • Jim in TN says:

      Stores are in the business of selling, not restricting what can be bought.

      They do offer loss leaders, items they lose money selling which get you to buy more things in their store. Often these loss leaders have limits. Though not every limit is necessarily a loss leader.

      Maybe the fool just bought an extra freezer and is beginning stocking? If they already have the capacity, they should have been slowly stocking up on sales items. If they don’t have the capacity, they just wasted money, or plan on feeding a lot of people.

      Also wonder if they realize that the food could go bad in a long power outage. So they better buy a generator and stock up on fuel too.

      Last minute is the wrong time to start being a prepper. By definition, last minute is an unprepper.

      Either way, the store doesn’t care if the shopper drove it straight to the dump instead of the fridge. A sale is a sale.

      Like

      • dayallaxeded says:

        That assumes a store is not operated by human beings who have a capacity for thought and moral action. As soon as a store manager sees someone exploiting an emergency to the detriment of the other customers and community, the manager should take some action to control it. There is nothing wrong with imposing 2/person limits on many items and the problems of scarcity and panic would be nil, if that was done. We used to have no problem denying people service for various specious and now illegal reasons. Limiting quantities in an emergency is simply the simplest right thing to do.

        Liked by 1 person

        • hawkins6 says:

          dayallaxeded -As i wrote below, the grocery chain has now implemented policies that reflect your rational and reasonable suggestion that “Limiting quantities in an emergency is simply the simplest right thing to do.”

          Liked by 1 person

      • hawkins6 says:

        Jim in TN;
        The grocery chain has now implemented purchase limits and the manager expressed his regrets for allowing this stockpiling to occur.

        Like

  21. Ray Hardy says:

    Close down the media for 30 days and watch 90% of the worlds problems disappear…..

    Liked by 12 people

  22. Mike in a Truck says:

    Sorry folks but I’m calling this what it is. Hoax. There I said it. Brought to you by the same mentality that brought us the Russian hoax. Why PDJT is allowing this to go on I cant say. But Hoax it is.

    Liked by 4 people

  23. Augie says:

    This misdirected response to the virus looks like the public health version of the Cloward-Piven strategy.

    Liked by 7 people

    • trialbytruth says:

      Notice how quickly Dem governor’s shut down the minute Trump suggested a golden safety net for the innocent being forced to take time off. It was as of it was a cued event all tied up and ready to go the more nute he spoke the words.

      I still however beleive this is the result of putting the numbers people in charge. Someone up thread mentioned accountants.

      We have disease accountants running the show. We need to add some social scientists and social psychologists to this message to recalibrate response to the human condition. Someone needs to throtal back this response. We are not a utopian disease free science experiment and the US can not become the good doctors lab.

      Liked by 1 person

    • John-Y128 says:

      The Cloward–Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven that called for overloading the U.S. public welfare system in order to precipitate a crisis that would lead to a replacement of the welfare system with “a guaranteed… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy

      Liked by 1 person

  24. 🍺Gunny66 says:

    It’s bull pucky.

    It’s just another flu. There’s no AIDS or SARS in it.

    It isn’t going to fill up the hospital corridors with dead bodies left unattended and the world will continue on.

    Explain it in plain English….

    The “Economic Unwind” of this show is an entirely different matter and was- almost certainly- the prime motivator in turning this rather innocuous strain of virus into a worldwide crisis of epic proportions to explain away………….

    “Where all the “non-existent money went”.

    ,…….wait for it……down the road….we will ask….where the hell did all the money go?

    Aaaaaand……..it’s gone.

    Liked by 10 people

    • Jim in TN says:

      Isn’t that the oddest thing of all. Since the housing crash, we have been pouring free money into the system. Just as the money tap is being shut down, along comes a ‘scare’ that forces the tap open again.

      Yet all this extra money, QE, bailouts, etc hasn’t done a thing to help kickstart anything. It’s not driving any economic engine. Nor does it show up in inflation. It is just disappearing in some bottomless hole somewhere.

      Worse, just as our President starts a real economic revival, the ‘scare’ shuts everything down.

      Like

  25. hawkins6 says:

    B.C.’ Health Minister (north of Washington state) has announced an “Outbreak Response phase” in the Public Health Care system and is cancelling thousands of scheduled “elective” or non emergency surgeries, like hip replacement surgery, colonoscopies etc. in order to free up “hundreds and hundreds” of hospital beds “to be prepared IF things get worse.” Monday there were 439 COVID patients in Canada and 4 deaths all in B.C. –Over reaction?

    Per capita (1/10 the pop’n) compared to the USA so 439 X 10= 4,390 infections and 40 deaths to the USA’s 4,661 cases and 85 deaths. Trudeau’s open border policies are finally seeing a steep spike in COVID-19 infections and he finally closed Canada’s borders except to U.S. citizens. The panic level in Canada has increased significantly. I hope Trudeau’s delays haven’t caused an eventual Italy style steep spike. It’s begun to head that way rather than “sketchy” Dr. Fauci’s low level sustained hump model over time.

    Would the private health care system in the USA ever cancel scheduled elective surgeries like this to create more space?

    Like

    • JoAnn Leichliter says:

      Since I understand that a long wait time is already involved in scheduling elective surgery in Canada’s health care system, this must be really frustrating. There have been some rather quiet mutterings about avoiding elective surgery here, but to my knowledge no pronouncements from on high.

      Liked by 1 person

    • JoAnn Leichliter says:

      Since I understand that a long wait time is already involved in scheduling elective surgery in Canada’s health care system, this must be really frustrating. There have been some rather quiet mutterings about avoiding elective surgery here, but to my knowledge no pronouncements from on high.

      Like

    • DiogeneseVindicated says:

      I’ve been told by a good source that Detroit area hospitals have also shut down elective surgery.

      Liked by 4 people

  26. zekness says:

    SD;

    Put another way: “Flattening” means the same number of people eventually contract the virus, only they do so over a longer period of time, and the healthcare system can treat everyone because the numbers do not rise to level where the system is overloaded. In theory that seems to make sense.

    no, flattening in the sense of isolation methods (imposed or voluntary) means that fewer people will eventually contract the virus….not just simply slow it down….the principle is not merely to slow the velocity (rate) of contact, but to furnish a result that achieves far fewer infections…the two are interrelated…and not only in theory, but in practice…how effective current measures are? different story…this saga unfolds the truth about current measures…predictive models are mostly useless and have been since day one of this crisis. So there is unfortunately more art going on that hard lines..what was attempted earlier obviously is not working….what may work right now, may prove better, or worse….this idea that we can somehow magically develop a flat curve under current state measures is unrealistic. Right now, this virus is being influenced by individual actions and responsibility…this is not being insulting to the american mentality…it just is, what it is…people simply do not understand or care or confused about what to do and what is necessary to get ahead of “the curve”…(no pun intended)….and this isn’t an american failure…it is the essence of what makes pandemic (human to human) transmission very durable and hard to mitigate against.

    there are two main outcome to contemplate here:

    a. order a hard line restriction on all travel, domestically and from external travel/contact…a lockdown order on the scale of wuhon but also focused on the most dense outbreaks regions and smart focus on the most highly trafficked hubs …and thus sink the economy and cause alot of harm..but realizing we live to see the other side and rebuild and KNOW what to do next time….this achieves flat amplitude and short tails. will the virus go away? no..but it give us TIME…that’s just about the only thing we can expect…
    b. do light weight measures, and hope (falsely) that this disease will somehow magically evaporate into thin air…and hope those surviving can have a chance to work out how to rebuild, and more critically how to engage the next pandemic…because that is really what this one represents…we are creating the stage upon which the next act will be played.

    Dr. Fauci has alot of experience..mostly related to disease control and little of vaccine development and therapeutics. He is by trade a research scientist to isolate new disease in a lab..and also how to calibrate a regime to prevent pandemic to its natural ends. He is more or less now an authority figure head…he has never been very effective in influencing public policy….and not for trying.

    it goes back to the interests of the state…and also the willingness (or not) of the citizens to act on good sound advice.

    if tomorrow for example, he was to say this:

    a full lockdown and restrictions on all domestic travel …hunker in place…for 3 weeks…

    which is the ideal way to handle this pandemic..

    do you really think this president, or more importantly any american citizens would even take that advice?

    so it goes with experts..they understand what is necessary…but the world is not a lab…

    this virus is making all the decisions…

    this is not going to end well.

    Liked by 1 person

    • sundance says:

      Again, you push fear and are wrong. I used Fauci’s own explanation for the purpose of flattening the curve. THAT’s his explanation, not mine. He is the one saying “the same number of people infected, only over a longer period of time”… not me.

      You should study more and fear-porn less.

      Liked by 11 people

      • Seneca the Elder says:

        Go Sundance! And thanks as always.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Hammersdad says:

        Sundance and Followers,

        This sub-thread is very close to the mark at which we need to strike.

        The ‘curve’ under discussion tracks Incidence of infection as a function of Time, i.e. (I) = f(T). The aggregate number of Incidences corresponds to the area under the curve. Flattening the rate of incidence, particularly on its ‘rising side’, should have a significant effect on that area under the curve. Duration of an acute infection event is unlikely to be substantially prolonged by lowering the height of the Incidence peak. The number of infection Incidences is not a pre-determined quantity that the Incidence curve must be stretched to accommodate.

        The ‘WuFlu’ epidemic – and effective measures to contain or minimize its effects – is accompanied by a large number of practical unknowns. Many of these unknowns are associated with definite but undefined socio-economic civil costs. These are costs that must and will have to be borne by the affected body politic (i.e., us – Us the People) regardless of their effectiveness.

        The challenge for our government is to manage and contain these costs while still implementing the measures necessary to adequately lower the Incidence peak. This management task will have to be conducted with sound and effective practical judgement rather than any set of pre-determined Rules of Engagement. Above all, this dynamic balancing act will require experienced, practical, and compassionate flexibility and a functioning internal time-line that extends beyond the effective duration of the Incidence of infection curve.

        I am much more comfortable with the project management skills of President Trump VP Pence than I am with those of the mayor of San Francisco and others of her like mind.

        Hammersdad

        Like

      • dayallaxeded says:

        I think anyone who read your post understands that and indeed, many thanks for bringing more of this to light. However, quoting and relying on Fauci to support his or anyone else’s argument for the massive shutdown of our service economy (yeah, the only economy we were supposed to have, per Obummer et al.) is like building a skyscraper on quicksand. Fauci’s lost his marbles and is talking in circles. The numbers from CDC don’t support their prior models and thus also don’t support their public health models. Pity is there will be no accountability here either: they’re keeping all the wildcats at bay–no wildcats, you say?–see how well it’s working!

        Like

    • sabreman30 says:

      Wow you are out to lunch.

      Like

    • SherryS says:

      Who are you, Mr. Smarty-pants? A lot of what you are saying on this thread sound very theoretical and unnecessary, almost as if you were a doctor/professor justifying the actions of Fauci and company. Are you a healthcare professional? Please stop with the doom and gloom. Again, how many people died from the flu last year? No businesses or schools were halted due to the annual flu. Most of us survived as we will this time.

      Like

  27. Abster says:

    I’m thinking I rather have corona virus than the fear of having corona virus. This is not right. These state and local governments have elected to destroy businesses and our economy. Also, our local schools are now closed until at least April 13th. What good is that doing. I see the dumb getting much dumber.

    Liked by 2 people

  28. nimrodman says:

    I certainly can’t untangle and evaluate Fauci’s logic, I could barely follow as Sundance attempted to.

    I do grasp the flattening concept, roughly, and it seems the Administration has bought into the “lockdown” approach. After rising numbers of cases Italy went into a lockdown: no stores or shops or restaurants open, only pharmacies and grocery stores. So that’s kind of the approach that’s now being taken in the US – no restaurants, minimize social contact, close schools.

    Here’s a graph that supposedly illustrates results of Chinese lockdown. The article reasons that because China is a state-control nation, they were able to clamp down or lock down many of their cities, factories, and provinces, which then have very flattened curves. Essentially, cases ramped up to a maximum and then flat-lined from there on, which I take to mean no new cases. Meanwhile Iran, Italy, S. Korea ramped up exponentially and didn’t stop. Article mentions S. Korea may be somewhat an anomaly, in that one case early on – a “super spreader” infected over 1,000 others.

    Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.

    Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every other Chinese region before the end of February.

    The article goes on to talk about death rates and how they’re computed, particulars of the Washington State outbreak, the nursing home, and so on, and there are a couple other compelling graphs, at least to me. This stuff looks to come from a UN program and database, so there’s that. But I reckon it’s good there was a database there to be used and someone did this analysis with it. If it deserves to have holes poked in it, anyone qualified is welcome to have at it.

    The main thing to me is that with this kind of example, Fauci and the other braniacs have bought into “lockdown” big-time and are directing US policy there. Maybe they picked this 15-day duration from the quick stabilization of the curves from the China example, the article goes into some of that verbally.

    View at Medium.com

    Like

    • nimrodman says:

      Oh, by the way, the mindset / agenda of that article may be reflected in it’s title and part of the URL:

      Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

      coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die

      *https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

      (remove the leading star *)

      Like

      • nimrodman says:

        yeah, I just blew up that chart for a close look and it looks like most of the provinces ramped up and approached flattening out within 15, 20, 25 days or so.

        we might anticipate a 2-week extension when 2 weeks are up

        here’s the link for that chart 8, blow it up in its own window click to enlarge further, and have a look (copy/paste this link into the address bar and remove the leading star)

        *https://miro.medium.com/max/6232/1*z0g3NaygxsgD50x_DJUIBA.png

        Like

        • Jim in TN says:

          China definitely imposed a clampdown. A hard cutoff of all transmission. A cessation of new cases. (If they aren’t lying to meet these arbitrary unrealistic goals.)

          Much different than a Fauci spreading out the curve.

          Thing is, a hard shut down leaves a huge potential population for the virus to infect. Things can get bad again very quickly. The virus can come back from Italy or Iran or wherever.

          Same was true about blocking borders. And the virus found an alternate route.

          So now we are partially shutting ourselves down.

          Food for thought. If you are welded into your apartment complex and starve to death, does that count as a death due to the flu?

          And never forget. China lies.

          Like

    • Shelley Childs says:

      Looking at a couple of daily tracking sites, what I wish were included would be the ages of the infected and the circumstances of their infection. There was a big jump in Massachusetts last week because a bunch of people got sick at a biotech meeting, and (thankfully) while there have been no deaths in the state yet, I gather that there hasn’t been a community infestation that can’t be sourced, i.e. foreign travel.

      Like

  29. fixintostand says:

    Sorry, but his words sound like a merry-go-round of liberal jibberish. Never full of factual statements, but talking in confusing circles, to reach a predetermined outcome. That’s how they roll, never committing to a true accountability. Dr. Brix at least appears honest and does not talk in intentional circles.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. Publius2016 says:

    Dr. FaucIII is Mr. Me Me Me…very knowledgeable but he’s the insider…This is Deep State Black Ops terror…go to Event 2O1…

    45 is riding out the tide and then will pick up the pieces…TIME AND CREATIVITY!

    “The cure” has already been found but a significant part of the population, SNOWFLAKES, they want CERTAINTY in an uncertain world…The Flu kills 40,000 on average each year…if we never not given the “genetic code” for Wuhan 400, the authorities would’ve just added to the 40,000 so it would be 40, 062!

    Like

  31. It has been many months since I’ve posted, though I have been lurking. Life got busy.

    Thanks nimrodman for posting the article from medium. I had read it earlier (there are several posts on American Thinker about the numbers which included this link).
    Anyway, I am kind of a data geek myself so have been watching the progression of data (at least what is posted).

    The medium article shows a graph “extrapolation” of the number of cases we should now be seeing in the US–from what I can see looks like upper 6K-7K. On the Johns Hopkins coronavirus site current case figure for USA is 4661 (at 11:32P 3/16).

    So either the data reporting is lagging quite a bit (as Fauci may be intimating in his remarks) OR the progress of the cases is far less than the much heralded exponential growth we’ve heard. I am keeping an open mind for now–BUT this is the kind of situation where rumors and disinformation can easily be spread.

    Thx as always SD.

    Liked by 2 people

  32. Trump2020 says:

    I’m beginning to think Sundance is on to something:

    FACT: 98 to 99% of the American people tested, who have symptoms (similar to flu), test negative for the Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19). We are spending hundreds of billions, and disrupting all facets of life and liberty, to avoid a virus almost no-one carries.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Heine Ootenvault says:

      Agreed. I have noticed the news cycle has hyped up the curfew but the daily announcing of newly infected has almost ceased.

      Like

  33. vicarioushikermom says:

    These coronavirus news conferences are contributing to the anxiety. Two many speakers (Fauci is one too many) saying contradictory things. Questions from a Trump-hating press that want to take him down are unhelpful. I understand President Trump’s devotion to transparency, but since he’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t, what is needed is a short, nightly update speech to the people either by President Trump or VP Pence, giving the facts but in a straight, calm manner.

    Liked by 3 people

    • TwoLaine says:

      TOTALLY. PLEASE! It’s WAY TOO MUCH and the networks really don’t give a sh1t. They just got back into the Press Room where they can harass the admin, the POTUS & the VP. SCORE! NO ONE should be subjected to this cesspool, let alone the public.

      They are not going to use anything except their cherry picked content, based on their nasty questions. The are going to shout CHAOS, CHAOS, CHAOS, no matter what is said.

      They would do better to have short videos by each (if necessary), edited for content. Blend them together and that’s the Wuhan Virus Daily Briefing. And please, USE GRAPHICS. This is 2020 for goodness sake.

      Use stories too. Just like at the SOTU. Here’s Susie Jones. Susie tested positive 2 weeks ago. Susie followed all the rules, (quick run thru, repetition, repetition, repetition}, she self isolated, and she’s negative today. Congrats Susie. Susie protected herself and the 150+ people she comes into contact with on a weekly basis, and no one else got sick because of her.

      This is X Company. They are working on a cure, They started testing today. This is Y Company. They make testing kits. They have committed to x production per week. (Like Ivanka’s companies who agreed to provide training.) This is a list of some of the companies who are doing take out food deliveries.

      Let the press submit questions via email. IF chosen, those questions will be answered via video content.

      Video allows for Closed Captioning as well.

      Liked by 2 people

    • TwoLaine says:

      I would also add that these people’s time is way too valuable for these long conferences. Let them get back to work, please. Use the KISS Principle.

      Liked by 2 people

  34. Toenail says:

    I know this is off topic but sell your vehicle now and get out of any investment having to do with autos. When the bureaucrats find out we have around 40,000 traffic related deaths yearly THEY will want to stop all vehicle traffic forever.

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      Uh, keep it under your hat, but they already do! That’s what the Green New Deal is all about.

      The automobile revolutionized American culture and the left wants to undo that revolution yesterday.

      Liked by 1 person

  35. Rgt says:

    Was the purpose to destroy the economy?

    Liked by 1 person

  36. Everett Miller says:

    This CV scare (despite temporarily wiping out $trillions in wealth and disrupting our Freedoms) will not only backfire on the perpetrators, but will have positive benefits (unintended consequences for them) for us all. The transparency of the “scare” vs reality is not being lost on millions of younger adults who are gaining a newfound awareness of the threat the Leviathan poses to our/their Freedom; Crying “wolf” in this case will help in general with the “bear” that is general practice of better hygiene to fight the regular flu which kills tens of thousands; in the end Trump will be proven right on so many levels ESPECIALLY proving the threat posed by the Chinese Communists, the folly of the Globalist multinationals giving up our manufacturing and extractions to our enemies such as medical compounds and rare-earth minerals; allowing crucial and existential civilian and military supply chains to become dependent on our civil and military enemies. Trump began the fight against these threats BEFORE the CV scare and he has been proven right–the exposure of which will weaken the Globalist traitors in DC. Lastly, the American Nationalism/Exceptionalism Patriotism will have been reawakened as we have also seen ourselves staring straight at a possible ignition of the Coming Second Revolution. Fixing these leftist flaws will be a better option that taking up of pitchforks and torches. Thank God for Donald J Trump!

    Like

  37. SPMI says:

    I picked Fauci as an arrogant foolish time waster weeks ago
    Really! Get a real guy to tell us the truth

    Like

  38. sabreman30 says:

    I would like to know who is pushing this Covid-19 hysteria at the World level. There are people making massive amounts of money of it that is for sure.

    Like

  39. Rick L says:

    I believe what the administration is trying to avoid is a large number of deaths due to there being over 50 million citizens over the age of 65. The hospitals combined in the entire country do not have enough vents and negative pressure rooms to handle a significant percentage of this demographic all at once. The fear is due to how contagious this virus is and combined with a 1% mortality rate the number of deaths would be significant. Unfortunately, as wonderful as a healthcare system as we have there has not been preparation for a Spanish Flu type outbreak. Simply put, maybe we got a little to complacent as a society and a bit arrogant that we have beaten it all and that old timer stuff like Spanish Flu and Great Depressions couldn’t possibly happen to us.
    Maybe this is a lesson and God is letting us reflect that we need to be more humble and appreciate what a relatively easy life we all have today.

    Like

    • sabreman30 says:

      You are entitled to your opinions. There are many questions about this Covid-19 that I find highly suspect including the 1% mortality rate. Where did it come from and how was it determined at this time period?

      Like

  40. sabreman30 says:

    Why would the death numbers lag? The person dies and is reported.

    I am very skeptical of the testing. How accurate are they? Are they prone to make false positives?

    Liked by 1 person

    • glissmeister says:

      There are massive false positives with the “official obama test kit” — a reported 47.9% false positive rate. Then there are the nation to nation and practitioner to practitioner variances between diagnoses and diagnostic criterion. It will be the end of April before they are looking at numbers that aren’t completely corrupted.

      By April many Americans will be able to describe qualitatively the degree of illness and discomfort they experienced when infected by Covid-19. Many will have zero symptoms or discomfort, some will have minor to mild symptoms.

      Some testing positive for Covid-19 will develop dangerous bacterial upper respiratory infections requiring antibiotics. A few will develop severe upper respiratory bacterial infections requiring hospitalization and some of them will tragically die from ARDS.

      Mostly, many thousands of Americans will experience infection with Covid-19 and suffer little more than an astonishing bewilderment at how cynically they have been manipulated and misled. This visceral understanding is something they will take to the voting booth. This awakening is already happening.

      But it doesn’t change the fact there is a troubling global problem with tuberculosis, mass migration and unlawful infiltration of cross-border infiltrating populations being facilitated by a global network of deeply corrupt NGOs, prominent foundations and political activists.

      Like

  41. A Call for Honesty says:

    Dyslexia problem:
    It is Dr Birx not Brix

    Like

  42. Krashman Von Stinkputin says:

    Fauci’s lag is the result of testing specifically for this virus.

    As more people are finally tested….we will find more people were infected and didn’t even know it.

    My hunch…..this virus arrived in US late last year. We will ultimately discover many deaths attributed to seasonal flu were actually covid-19 infections.

    Like

  43. Martin says:

    I think Fauci is trying to manage panic, while presenting numbers that attempt to portray administration actions are working – and PDJT is letting him – for now.

    The problem with that approach is that the shutdowns, quarantines, and restrictions are being enacted by others with different ideological purposes, and that’s having a greater impact than anything Fauci can say.

    If there are no cases in your county, why would otherwise sane people close schools, reduce hours, shut down businesses and send employees home without pay for a month, then raid Wal-Mart?

    It may seem like unintended consequences, but that is deliberate, CYA type stuff. To the layman, something isn’t quite right. Media isn’t reporting accurately, they’re ramping up, down the line to local affiliates who are way out of their depth.

    If anyone knows this, PDJT does. It will be interesting to see how long he permits this to continue.

    Like

    • sabreman30 says:

      I am sure President Trump knows this but I believe he has given in. He tried at first and was totally shot down. Appears everyone with power is on board. What a nightmare (in my opinion).

      Like

    • Jim in TN says:

      I saw the President giving cover to any politician who I think is overreacting, and holding out that he may need to do the same at a later date.

      Until we start quantifying the costs of overreacting, everybody is going to have a certitude that it is right and justified.

      Sort of Bastiat’s seen vs unseen consequences. Except this is a hyped vs hidden.

      Liked by 1 person

  44. CountryDoc says:

    As a community doc, I have answered questions on facebook. I have looked at the hardest data I could. I have watched the numbers in China, Italy, less so Korea and Iran. In the U.S. I have watched the data in Seattle and New York, and sounded the alarm using the “flatten the curve now to save the elderly and frail” explanation.

    Because I am a physician, my posts have gone viral locally, and then my actions were reinforced by national decisions causing directives at the city, county, and state level. I may be seen as a chicken little later, or an early herald who saved lives.

    It’s like the man in the ER with chest pain. Experience helps a little, but you can’t know as much if you don’t do the enzymes, and if still unsure, keep them overnight. Better to make a mistake of an “unnecessary admission” than read his obituary in the paper tomorrow, face the surviving family, and possibly later the malpractice lawyers. But the key motivator is better to make the safer mistake and make the stoic patient mad, then the cavalier mistake and miss a window of opportunity to save a life.

    I’m in this boat, POTUS is in this boat. Yet we’ve been duped before by people advocating compassionate use of narcotics, devices that caused harm. We may be being duped now, or unintentionally forced to make decisions that cost millions. But we are collectively deciding to save our elderly at great cost.

    What about the “TRILLIONS” we are supposedly losing by this voluntary lock down? Are THOSE real numbers? I thought our GTP was only 22 Trillion. How can we be losing TRILLIONS in 2-4 weeks when we only make 22 Trillion as a country in a year?

    What about this “healthcare capacity” question. I have watched hospital company and pharmacy company and Insurance company CEOs play fast an furious with people’s lives in order to make their companies look good to investors. Playing shell games with local hospitals to look good to investors, at the expense of decimating what were shining examples of excellent care in local communities with local hospitals by well trained physicians and nurses.

    Many hospitals go on “Divert” because they lack beds — when in reality they have many more ICU beds and ventillators, but no staff to care for them — diverting to the larger city medical hospitals who profit bigly — the same large hospitals with CEOS who closed our OB wards, who turned our 10 bed ICUs in smaller cities into bandaid stations. Who are making it impossible for well trained local healthcare professionals to make a living.

    We Primary Care Physicians have gone from pioneer, Navy Seal – like versatile physicians , using electronic medical records to amplify individual care with population based care, to working 60-80 – 100 hrs a week in my practice with very little revenue for the hours they work.. Are we stupid or courageous? 40 PCPs in our city have left primary care in 10 years. In the whole 14 county region less than 10 new primary care practices have started. Our healthcare “capacity” has been decimated by a medical/industrial complex that is sucking 4 TRILLION dollars (18%) of our GDP and producing declining, inefficient quality of care delivered on the ground.

    Where is all that money going, when our doctors are quitting, unable to perform their jobs 1/3 as well as they did before; we have a suicidal rate higher than war vets. When a hospital visit that used to be stellar, being admitted by a PCP with some well chosen specialists in the ICU now requires being touched by 10 physicians and 8 nurse practitioners, and 20 nurses, 3 social workers and case managers, all moving a snails pace because they are primarily data entry clerks to a computer system designed to maximize profits for someone else.

    We give these people 4 TRILLION of our health care money up front. Their profit depends on not spending it. We have also given these business people the power to make our medical decisions, and incapacitated our best trained health care professionals. Those coming out of training are being given a FARCE of a clinical education, at great expense, with very little practical clinical experience.

    I pray for our frail citizens,and we are making decisions at great cost because this is America. But when this is over, lets put some sunlight on the numbers in health care and the motives of the decision makers, lobbyists, congressmen, multi-million dollar health insurance, hospital system, pharmaceutical CEOs and bureaucrats.

    We will survive this. Do the right thing locally now. But yes, lets put some sunlight on all these numbers. I’m proud to be a Treeper.

    Liked by 6 people

    • georgehumphries9802 says:

      Your story of how your profession has been affected can be repeated ad nauseum in any profession in this country. I’m a 1971 college graduate in Math and Physics and what I see in the new college graduates, IMHO, is about equivalent to my high school diploma, or less. Our technical professions have become so dependent on computers that critical thinking and problem solving abilities are almost non-existent. “Repairmen” have been replaced by “Parts Changers” and costs are only lower because we have sent our manufacturing, in any discipline, to the third world, low-wage countries. Rant over

      Liked by 1 person

    • John-Y128 says:

      American has had more than enough national emergencies to change but the Swamp always rush back in to reestablish their political sewer policies, nothing is going to change, ever.

      My number one case for that is our DOJ and it’s swamp-master AG Barr, dismissing charges against a Russian troll farm, while keeping Flynn’s case open and staying laser focused on prosecuting CV scams.

      Like

    • Rick L says:

      Thank you for adding your insightful and educated comment to help answer some of my concerns.

      Like

    • Jim in TN says:

      52 weeks / 22 Trillion = 2.36 weeks per Trillion. And that is just for America.

      True, it won’t all be shutdown. But lost GDP doesn’t include lost value. Real value is disappearing. It took years for housing values to recover after that crash.

      And when you have sunk your precious dollars into a restaurant, it will hurt you really bad when you have lost your investment. Just like the lost value is hurting everybody who is living off their 401k or IRA, or nearing the time when that is necessary.

      Like

      • UberRight says:

        I like your thinking. I posted this earlier:
        Someone can check my math.
        US GDP $21,439,000,000,000 21 trillion
        US Population 329,453,849
        Per Capita GDP $65,074
        US Cases @ Italy rate 153,015
        US Deaths @ Italy rate 11,801
        GDP destroyed per death $1,816,636,417
        Yes, I know lives are priceless. But there is a real cost to destroying a 21 trillion dollar economy.
        Over a billion dollars per death.

        Like

  45. TheWanderingStar says:

    Dr. Fauchi definitely has a Mengele quality about him, does he not?

    Liked by 1 person

    • John-Y128 says:

      As RottenRollin asked, Dr. Fauci or Dr. Farce?

      Like

      • sabreman30 says:

        What’s funny is President Trump mentioned July – August and Fauci jumps and says we have to see where are at in 15 days. It’s apparent Fauci has been pushing this internally as a spiraling out of control situation but then back tracks in front of the camera. I definitely don’t trust Fauci but I might wrong.

        Liked by 1 person

        • John-Y128 says:

          They are all trying to do the best they can, it not as easy as using Mr. Microphone at home. I think that is somewhat part of PT oral issues too, his repeating, unlike most professional democrats speakers who can spew BS all day long, never promising anything.

          Like

  46. Eric C. says:

    Someone else had posted this article in some thread a few days ago:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/covid-19-exponential-threat-why-global-politicians-business-leaders-must-act-now

    There’s an interesting chart of “reported” cases and “true” cases from China. True cases are derived from health care workers interviewing those that later test positive (up to a week+ later) and determine when they got infected.

    Even though they weren’t a “reported”, they were able to transmit the virus. So yes, the true numbers are lagging behind. The media isn’t reporting on everyone who is asympomatic/mild symptoms.

    The virus grows exponentially, taking actions prior to the “reported” numbers reflecting a number people would think would trigger the action is what is needed to get over the hump.

    Remember, for a vast majority of the population this will be a minor to moderate illness; however, those that become seriously ill will most likely need ICU care with a ventilator due to the inflammatory response in the lungs.

    This is a new virus, no one has prior immunity. This virus will spreads however we can ease the spread by following the guidelines. It’s a pure numbers game, let’s assume 17% get sick and 0.2% of those who get sick require ICU care: for every 1 million in population that’s 170,000 sick and 3,400 need ICU care.

    We all agree PDJT is very smart and has the ability to get stuff done. I don’t think he is being “fooled”. There is real life data about this disease, albeit somewhat limited that they need to make decisions on in order to prevent the worse case scenario from occurring. If it’s predictable, it’s preventable!!

    This virus essentially leads to viral pneumonia, the problem is it’s highly contagious, people can transmit the virus before becoming symptomatic and NO ONE in the population has prior immunity.

    Liked by 1 person

    • glissmeister says:

      Respectfully, your approach is very thoughtful but your premise is entirely wrong. I think you’ll find this really interesting. Sardi is an excellent investigative medical journalist: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/bill-sardi/health-inheritance-asians-have-lower-vitamin-c-blood-levels-more-prone-to-coronavirus-other-infections/

      Like

      • Eric C. says:

        I skimmed the above article and got there’s a 3-fold increase in the “Asian” genetic make-up. Simply divide the 3,400 by 3 for 1,133 per million – that means (if unchecked) potentially about 396,550 people in the US (1,133 times 350) would need ventilators on top of the normal demand (people will still get ill for other diseases, although trauma related should go down somewhat).

        Large numbers and exponential growth. Most people don’t have a grasp on it (not directed at you, but the population in general), yes a fraction of a percent of well less than 25% of the US population is a very large number.

        It’s the overwhelming of the medical system due to this viral pnuemonia that is problematic. With exponential growth (and the lag of true cases versus reported/extrapolated cases [those not tested but statistically identified], in a community one day you have 10 individuals that need ICU care and the next you have 20 more on top of the 10 you are already treating with 40 more coming the next day……..see the problem.

        The idea is that the measures that are being taken today have a profound impact on future numbers. A virus cannot be stopped; however, we can slow its growth and buy time for treatment measures and vaccines to be developed that will eradicate its impact on the population. Good thing is that Corona viruses don’t do well in higher temperatures. Spring and Summer cannot come soon enough!!

        Why school closures? Well my son is in Kindergarten and I will tell you they are germ factories!!!!!!!!!! Schools are the vector in transmission, most families in the community send kids to school where they practice horrible sanitation and separation practices 🙂 , those kids then come home or go to grandma’s house. Grandma watches her grandchild(ren) and then goes off to a church social gathering. All this occurs multiple times per week while the child got the virus and transmitted it grandma who can’t help but kindly tell little Johnny he should cover his mouth while coughing. Grandma’s friend kindly tells her a few days later that she should cover her mouth while coughing. When Grandma’s friend goes home, a few days later her husband grumpily tells her to cover her mouth when you’re coughing, you’re gonna kill us all woman!! 🙂

        As Joe Diffie’s song goes “Welcome to Earth, 3rd rock from the sun, cause and effect…….”

        Liked by 1 person

    • Ana says:

      The problem is with trust issues. How can the president trust anything coming out of intelligence agencies when it is the very intelligence agencies that he has to depend on for information that tried to waged a coup against him? This is a very dangerous situation. The president needs to pardon Michael Flynn ASAP and put him in charge. He knows all the actors who want to take the president out.

      Like

    • Remember, for a vast majority of the population this will be a minor to moderate illness; however, those that become seriously ill will most likely need ICU care with a ventilator due to the inflammatory response in the lungs.

      This is a new virus, no one has prior immunity. […]

      Given that the first half of your first sentence is true, as is the second half, as is the second sentence … what you are describing is “a viral infection.” Because it does not mow down vast numbers of people with certainty (as, e.g. “Spanish Flu” did to thousands of soldiers), it does not properly deserve to be called “pandemic.” Many viruses mutate quickly so that they are always “new.” The flu-shot that you might buy each year has a very low chance of matching the influenza virus particles that you might encounter.

      Low-tech though this may seem: “wash your hands, and sneeze into your sleeves.” Viruses are most commonly spread by contact: you touch an elevator button then you rub your eyes. Wash your hands with soap and water and you create a surface that is very hostile to them. (They’re only RNA-strands, after all.)

      Like

  47. Randolph Scott says:

    There are some positives about this nationwide health issue. NO NBA.

    Liked by 3 people

    • steph_gray says:

      Another positive that I am loving:

      I have not seen a single virtue-signaling lecture about plastic straws in quite a while now!

      Like

  48. John-Y128 says:

    Well I have flattened Fauci’s curve at my house, I just woke up an hour ago and already washed my hands three times, I hope Walmart isn’t out of soap today – oh gotta run Dr. so-in-so is on FoxNews, again.

    Liked by 1 person

  49. Ana says:

    IDK, seeing the Chinese use giant steel panels to wall off a city doesn’t instill confidence in me that this is just an ordinary, everyday, run of the mill virus. There is a lot more going on here then what we are being told. While I’m not getting paranoid about it, I am going to stick close to home, and take advantage of this very costly vacation time.

    Like

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