Chang: 2018 is the Year Beijing Realized President Trump Was Outwitting Them….

A good discussion between Charles Payne and Gordon Chang on Fox Business over the U.S. -vs- China trade confrontation.  Mr. Chang makes a good point about 2018 being the year where Beijing realized they underestimated the cunning of President Trump.

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He caught them off guard – There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump considered strategic messaging toward the people of china very important. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership.

2018 is the year China discovered that President Trump knows how to play their panda/dragon games.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially amid adversaries. Respect is earned through strength and cunning.

To build upon a projected and strategic message – President Trump seeded the background by appointing Ambassador Terry Branstad, a 30-year personal friend of President Xi Jinping.

To enhance and amplify the message – and broadcast cultural respect – U.S. President Trump used Mar-a-Lago as the venue for their visit, not the White House. And President Trump’s beautiful granddaughter, Arabella, sweetly serenaded the Chinese First Family twice in Mandarin Chinese song showing the utmost respect for the guests and later for the hosts.

Why the constant warm messaging?

What is the purpose?

What does all this have to do with a trade confrontation?

Historic Chinese geopolitical policy, vis-a-vis their totalitarian control over political sentiment (action) and diplomacy through silence, is evident in the strategic use of the space between carefully chosen words, not just the words themselves.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and then the  action continues.

The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.

In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

China is a central planning economy; meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; as such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.

This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.

Any nation’s economic model is only as stable (or strong) as the underlying architecture or infrastructure of the country’s economic balance.

Think about economic strength and stability this way: If a nation was economically walled off from all other nations, can it survive? …can it sustain itself? …can it grow?

In the big picture – economic strength is an outcome of the ability of a nation, any nation, to support itself first and foremost. If a nation’s economy is dependent on other nations for itself to survive it is less strong than a nation whose economy is more independent.

Most Americans don’t realize it, but China is an extremely dependent nation.

When the central planning for the 21st century Chinese Economy was constructed, there were several critical cultural flaws, dynamics exclusive to China, that needed to be overcome in order to build their economic model. It took China several decades to map out a way to economic growth that could overcome the inherent critical flaws.

♦Because of the oppressive nature of the Chinese regime demands a compliant culture, the majority of citizens within China do not innovate or create.  Innovation must be imported or stolen.  The “Compliance Mindset”, reinforced by central communist planning, is part of the flaw in the overall economic system.

Broadly speaking, modern era Chinese populace are not innovators; cultural compliance-affirmation does not lead to independent ‘outside-the-box’ thinking  per se’.   Therefore China approves and sends students to study in the U.S. to learn a skill-set absent within their own culture.

Chinese civil activity has been a history of control by government and compliance to stay (think) only within the approved box. The lack of intellectual thought mapping needed for innovation is why China relies on intellectual theft of innovation created by others.

American culture specifically is based around freedom of thought and severe disdain of government telling us what to do; THAT inherent freedom is necessary for innovation. That freedom actually creates the breeding ground for innovation.

Again, broadly speaking, Chinese are better ‘studiests’ (students) in American schools and universities because the Chinese are culturally compliant. They work well with academics, and with pre-established formulas within established systems; but they cannot necessarily create the formula or system themselves.

In large measure their industrial force are good cooks if they already have the ingredients and recipe available to follow.  China is trying to overcome this inherent issue by allowing innovative thinking, importing industrial experts to teach innovation, yet simultaneously keeping a totalitarian grip on dissent.

The Chinese Planning Authority skipped the economic cornerstone. When China planned out their economic entry, they did so from a top-down perspective. They immediately wanted to be manufacturers of stuff. They saw their worker population as a strategic advantage, but they never put the source origination infrastructure into place in order to supply their manufacturing needs. China has no infrastructure for raw material extraction or exploitation.

China relies on: importing raw material, applying their economic skill set (manufacturing), and then exporting finished goods. This is the basic economic structure of the Chinese economy.

See the flaw?

Cut off the raw material, and the China economy slows, contracts, and if nations react severely enough with export material boycotts the entire Chinese economy implodes.

Insert big flashy sign for: “One-Belt / One-Road” HERE

Again, we reference the earlier point: Economic strength is the ability of a nation to sustain itself. [Think about an economy during conflict or war] China cannot independently sustain itself, therefore China is necessarily vulnerable.

China is dependent on Imports (raw materials) AND Exports (finished goods).

♦The 800lb Panda in the room is that China is arguably the least balanced economy in the modern world. Hence, China has to take extraordinary measures to secure their supply chain. This economic dependency is also why China has recently spent so much on military expansion etc., they must protect their vulnerable interests.

Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.

China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but China’s economy is also narrow.

China could have spent the time to create a broad-based economy, but the lack of early 1900’s foresight, in conjunction with their communist top-down totalitarian system and a massive population, led to central government decisions to subvert the bottom-up building-out and take short-cuts. Their population controls only worsened their long term ability to ever broaden their economic model.

It takes a population of young avg-skilled workers to do the hard work of building a raw material infrastructure. Mine workers, dredge builders, roads and railways, bridges and tunnels etc. All of these require young strong bodies. The Chinese cultural/population decisions amid the economic builders precluded this proactive outlook; now they have an aging population and are incapable of doing it.

This is why China has now positioned their economic system as dependent on them being an economic bully. They must retain their supply chain: import raw materials – export finished goods, at all costs.

This inherent economic structure is a weakness China must continually address through policies toward other nations. Hence, “One-Belt / One-Road” is essentially their ‘bully plan’ to ensure their supply chain and long-term economic viability.

This economic structure, and the reality of China as a dependent economic model, also puts China at risk from the effects of global economic contraction.  But more importantly it puts them at risk from President Trump’s strategic use of geopolitical economic leverage to weaken their economy.

China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.

China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

If it does not benefit China, it is not done !

Therefore the economic battle must be carefully waged to deliver a series of alternative thoughts in the mind of Beijing – where they view specific action as their best interest.  Any reversal in the current standard of benefit is viewed as a loss; the Chinese will not cede to any losses.  To challenge those who hold this zero-sum position, you must first change the current standard.

This means China must lose first before the negotiations can begin.  The baseline within the negotiation must be reset.  Once the baseline position is reset, then negotiation can be viewed by the Chinese as a gain.  This is the only way to get the Chinese to agree to any terms.

If the baseline losses to China are not currently firmed, such that Beijing and Xi Jinping see their current position as the standard, then President Trump and Bob Lighthizer need to wait longer before engaging.

Big Panda must see their diminished bamboo forest as the natural, current, and diminishing forecast status.  Only then will Panda engage in negotiations.  China must be in a seemingly perpetual stasis of losing before they will contemplate their need to achieve gains.

This is an economic and geopolitical battle that requires nerves of steel and an incredible amount of cunning and strategy.  As Trump resets the baseline, China will make multiple simultaneous moves to counter any potential losses.

President Trump, Secretary Ross and U.S.T.R. Lighthizer must think well ahead of China (they have); and make moves early in the conflict (they have); long before China realizes they are being confronted (they did).   {Go Deep} As we saw with the DPRK showdown Trump was several moves ahead of Xi, and blocked the counter-offense position of the Red Dragon before it was deployed.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.

We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!

 

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This entry was posted in Big Government, Big Stupid Government, China, Donald Trump, Economy, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

114 Responses to Chang: 2018 is the Year Beijing Realized President Trump Was Outwitting Them….

  1. fleporeblog says:

    America First runs through our President’s veins! It is the creed he has lived by for the past 72 years. I absolutely LOVE him for it because he cares more for our kids and grandkids than any man on the face of this Earth.

    I am the biggest optimist you will you will find because I truly believe that Our Father in Heaven delivered us PDJT.

    Our President was born to be the EAGLE 🦅 on our country’s crest!

    Our President and his Killers took the damn Chinese to the cleaners during the G20! All China 🇨🇳 got was a 90 day reprieve starting on December 1st. The tariffs on the $200 billion dollars of imports will stay at 10% rather than go up to 25%. However, if they can’t finalize a deal by the end of the 90 days, on March 1st the tariffs will be increased from 10% to 25%.

    Look at everything we got in return!

    https://www.livemint.com/Politics/1isrPVYzF27I7salgKtd7J/China-is-paying-for-most-of-Donald-Trumps-trade-war.html?facet=amp&utm_source=googleamp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=googleamp&__twitter_impression=true

    This would be like the Eskimos buying Ice from us!

    Lets take a look at each country’s Markets and where they stand since the trading year is officially over.

    USA 🇺🇸 Markets

    DJIA is down 5.63%
    S&P 500 is down 6.24%
    Nasdaq Composite is down 3.88%

    China 🇨🇳 Markets

    Shanghai Composite is down 24.59%
    Shenzhen Composite is down 33.25%
    Shanghai 50 is down 19.83%

    For companies like GM, Apple etc. they are not happy because the status quo is far worse in business than having closure. They absolutely HATE uncertainty.

    That is exactly what they got out of the agreement in Argentina 🇦🇷.

    Our President will kindly remind them and the American public via twitter that WE ARE OPEN FOR BUSINESS!

    WINNING feels so damn good!

    Liked by 20 people

    • michaelh says:

      They didn’t realize he was going to win. They didn’t realize that Trump had taken all the high ground until he was meeting them in the plains.

      Liked by 8 people

      • 🍺Gunny66 says:

        Yep, as they met, the Chinese looked around, and saw all the high ground was already taken……….

        And then……… they took a breath….and said to themselves…..”Ah….soo”

        Liked by 1 person

      • Orville R. Bacher says:

        So true. Innovation in a totalitarian state is shunned.
        The USA has been played like chumps by giving China free technology (or extorted) that would have taken hundreds of billions of dollars and decades to develop otherwise. And China is getting their children educated essentially “for free” in the West.
        All the while developing vast networks of spies and while cultivating traitors to the USA.
        The Trojan Horse is here. It is far more than an Economic game.

        Like

    • Dutchman says:

      fle; I’m right there with you on optimism, and for the same reason, God Bless PDJT!
      Every time I read this post, my mind reads “All I got was this lousy tee shirt”, LOL!
      Keep posting those #’s, suspect they are only gonna get BETTER!

      Liked by 6 people

    • TessTruehart says:

      Can’t say I’m the world’s 2nd biggest optimist–but I’m working on it. I know three things, tho:

      1, Trump plays the long game, and he always makes sure he has something in reserve. He never plays all his cards at once. For that (and other) reasons, he often (usually?) wins when other people have despaired.

      2. Trump has many gifts, but one notable one is being able to communicate with people and persuade them. I *know* Trump has won the propaganda game on tariffs with Americans, and very quickly too. I try to get a read on the economy by getting people to talk about how their business (or job) is doing, busy or not, better than last year, etc. People don’t mind at all talking about it in a general way.

      Last year in these conversations I was earnestly informed by most people that China and other countries have been cheating us for decades and it’s time we hit back at it. I was amazed at how quickly this theme of Trumps took hold.

      3. The future belongs to the optimists. They’re the ones who keep trying til they succeed.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Bob Parker says:

      I echo 100% of everything that you said & only wish to add that in my view there is no one out there better than Mr. Gordon Chang that can analyze China + Trump’s actions on China thus far.

      I also pray that President Trump can launch his counter-offensive against the Dems ASAP to keep the winning going on all fronts!!

      Like

  2. Spectre says:

    Seems like we’re close to making some real progress based on recent tweets. Hopefully the Jan 7 delegation sets up a deal.

    Will be interesting to see how the North Korea card is played by China.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Spectre says:

      Could be epic if President Trump not only opens up China, but nails down a deal on North Korea as a twofer. Heads exploding everyone!

      Liked by 4 people

    • DeAnna Vaughn says:

      I hope so. Soybeans are down to $7.80 a bushel. Still have ours in storage waiting for a trade deal to be completed so they will come back up to $9.00 or better.

      Liked by 7 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        DeAnna, they need those soy beans and so hopefully very soon you get the price you want and need. Personally I am not fond of tofu but I buy it from an Asian store once in a while as I enjoy making Hot & Sour Soup, obviously with some tofu and lots of shiitake mushrooms. Learned that when studying in China. Secret: sour is vinegar and hot is white pepper and it made in maybe 25 mins.

        Liked by 1 person

        • tonyE says:

          I MUCH prefer American Japanese tofu.

          Specially when made by a small outfit that uses only the best beans and artisan methods, even if the price is three or four times higher. Now, please don’t take this as an advertisement or commercial endorsement, but I love Meiji Tofu from Torrance. They use, I kid you not, beans grown on American Honda’s fields in Marysville, Ohio. (*) If you can find a small Japanese tofu maker in your area, go for it. Otherwise, avoid tofu.

          Indeed, I avoid ALL Chinese made food. I just don’t trust it.

          If you haven’t had artisan tofu, made Japanese style, you have not had tofu.

          As a backup alternative, American Koreans do make a good product, just not as tasty.

          (*) Why yes… my tofu is Powered by Honda. ;-D

          Liked by 1 person

      • Robert Smith says:

        How long can you store soybeans?

        Like

  3. principled says:

    Awesome … PDJT has been planning for 30 +years to fix us re china. Surely he too has planned in a similar way for the deep state!

    Liked by 8 people

  4. Elric VIII says:

    The Chinese have been purchasing U.S. food companies for some time, and it appears that they are buying soy beans from the U.S. again. Not only that, but they are in negotiations to buy rice from the U.S. RICE! The Chinese cannot feed themselves.

    Liked by 2 people

    • 4EDouglas says:

      That is the problem-they are far weaker than the MSM and the globalists imagine.. Gordon Chang’s”the coming collapse of China ” is worth a read-I’ve held this view for years. History has proven -an unfettered, free societey is far stronger than a society that operates under:”the Beatings will continue until morale improves.”

      Liked by 5 people

      • 4EDouglas says:

        One thing about Chang’s book it was written back in 2001. It, however poses the theroy tha tthe Chinese Communist theory is not viable. He is about to do an update, I hear-because-Trump..

        Liked by 1 person

        • Dutchman says:

          Its like Reagan/USSR, 2.0
          So, HOW does it end? I’m FASCINATED to watch it play out!
          This is like being alive when David slew Goliath, Moses parted the Red Sea, and the Trojan horse played out, all at once.
          We are all blessed to be witness to these times, whatever comes!

          Liked by 4 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        4EDouglas, yet there are still some but not a whole lot of communists still there, but once in a while they do imprison or kill what they consider traitors who are really wanting freedom. Each time we have visited, there is much more freedom, women don’t have to put up with garbage from spouses, better wages, they love the finest in clothing and cars (last trip there we had a female taxi driver and a TV in the back for patrons. A lot of beautiful things there as well, and after that school building disintegrated and several children died, the Chinese has become more compassionate OUTSIDE their families as unfortunately Confucius wanted only to care for the family, and now in big cities they can have 2 children (and if twins or triplets they have always kept them). So Xi has a lot on his plate because I don’t think the Chinese will put up with a lot and it is well known they don’t want to upset the “peasants” because of their protests and wanting to take back their country. The future for China will be interesting to watch.

        Like

        • bsdetector4u says:

          It will be interesting to see China in 2020 and onward after the government implements their Social Credit System where they assesses their citizens’ and businesses’ economic and social reputation. I see the firm hand of communism clamping down on its citizenry.

          Like

        • 4EDouglas says:

          Well I agree one thing: Nowthere are over a bout 100,000,000 practicing Christians in China.. one of these days they will discover that
          Christians are good for the country. as opposed to radical Uhugur Jihadsts.. I predict we will see Chinese Missionaries to the USA..

          Like

  5. Derangement Syndrome says:

    This article leads you to the conclusion that the dems and GOPe must be agents of China and actual traitors against the country.

    Quite sickening.

    Liked by 3 people

    • michaelh says:

      Huh, you mean they aren’t?

      Liked by 3 people

      • Dutchman says:

        Well, yeah.
        Hillary was the bag lady, collecting the $, thru multinationals to foundation.
        Terry Mcaulif selling citisenship to Chinese ‘businessmen’, Di-Fi, McConnell, Biden, 7 of the gang of eight, both ‘party’leadership all in on crossfire hurricane, insurance plan, mueller, etc.
        Uniparty, remember?

        Liked by 2 people

    • The_Real Bob W. says:

      Well, when Joe Average Congress-Slug, demonstrates s/he is in the game first and foremost to line their pockets, it’s hardly necessary to become “agents of China and actual traitors against the country.” At least not in any philosophical sense of things. Money talks, and money hews to no political philosophy.

      Understand, I’m not disagreeing with your post, merely pointing out one logical, more or less inevitable, result of electing amoral slugs to national – or any level, for those able to pay local attention – gruberment: Personal gain to the larger detriment of “the governed,” aka “society.”

      Short of “well-comprehending” the well-expressed philosophies and deeply-logical thinking of our Founding Fathers (ref./e.g. The Federalist Papers…an approach requiring reading time and associated mental effort), this “pocket lining” reality inherent to governments and the mass of rats that generally tend to scurry toward legislatures and their attendant political powers, is likely THE most easily comprehended argument FOR the smallest size gruberments possible, short of anarchy, that every society should-oughta be striving for.

      Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Derangement Syndrome says:

        I agree, we aren’t sending our best.

        Like

      • Dutchman says:

        Yes, its very easy for me to go down, and politely sit in my town mayors office, and keep coming back every day if necesary till he sees me, and hear my greivance.
        Harder for my Govenor, or State senator, though doable.
        Much harder for Congressman or President.
        The closer the government is to the people, the more responsive it is, TO the people.
        But, how many can’t name local officials, have never met mayor, city council, police chief or sherrif, school board, zoning commision, etc.?

        A Republic requires a participatory populace, in order to work.

        WE have been asleep, for a very long time.

        Liked by 4 people

        • Carrie2 says:

          Dutchman and precisely what we have to Drain the Congress Swamp because our hired employees who think they own us. NOT! We must take back the reins and start fresh. We have known for a long time they have become millionaires so it was obvious we blinded ourselves not accepting they were purchased by outsiders. Close down Congress and they will leave with no lifetime benefits, etc. Let them operate in their home state and work by real time live video (and we keep the video copies to be on top of what they are doing) and no need to support them in DC at all,which is such as pest hole. Our President can be there and we can cleansed the buildings and lease, rent or sell them and pay down the HUGE national debt they have caused. This will also allow us to review and repeal or remove the trash that is no longer needed and they should never have created by not doing what the people wanted.

          Liked by 3 people

    • Ray Runge says:

      DerSyn, you mistake the commitment of the UniParty and internal drive of our bottom feeding SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES. The elected corruptocrats are not beholden to anything further than the Lobbyists / Paymasters. China, although a big [payer in the game, the Corruptocrats are serially beholden to any number of foreign and domestic contributors. The contributors want laws written to grease the skids on the vested scams.

      Where ever the paymasters Global financial interests lie, that is where the loyalty of the corruptocrats can be found.

      Liked by 2 people

    • James Carpenter says:

      When the likes of Mitch McConnell draw their last breath and we catalog their ascent from financial obscurity to notable wealth… their Congressional salary will NOT be a foundation stone of the accounting.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Not agents, Slaves.

      Like

    • grlangworth says:

      Actually, I don’t think they are really smart enough to be the villains you imagine. They are more likely to position themselves tactically to be closer to the bribe envelope when it appears. There is a greedy jostling but they have no sights and thus cannot aim.

      Like

  6. montanamel says:

    Wonder want a Chinaman sounds like cussing up a blue streak?
    Bet our PDT knows….eh?
    Check-6

    Like

  7. montanamel says:

    Drats:….
    That’s “WHAT” not want… maybe the new year’s fairy will bring us an EDIT button …

    Check-6

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      Don’t worry! I’ve got so used to it, my mind automatically edits comments, to figure out what other posters,are saying.
      I didn’t notice your error, till I read your follow up post.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Mo says:

    Gordan Chang mention internal Chinese struggle between two groups and their preferred growth models. here is an article introducing these two groups and terms.

    http://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/china/v009/9.2.chen.html

    To simplify it a bit, the debate is between those who emphasize “Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦, or “keep a low profile”) and those who emphasize “Fen Fa You Wei (奋发有为, or “striving for achievement”). The debate itself is not new, as it has been going on for several years already, but the level of intensity is new.

    Like

  9. China may have manufacturing however they are not apt to use it to it’s maximum effectiveness. They can hold tolerances and to spec they CHOOSE not to… they frequently supply materials and products which are less than specified standards they agreed to provide, could you imagine if they were the only manufacturer? GOD HELP US!

    Liked by 1 person

    • G. Combs says:

      I was a quality engineer/chemist. The major fall in quality since ISO 9000 was touted as the greatest thing on earth makes me want to SCREAM!

      For example, I bought ten sophisticated locking snaps from Weaver Leather. Unfortunately I spliced them into 20 ft long EXPENSIVE NYLON tie-out ropes BEFORE checking them only to find NONE of them worked. A phone call to Weaver showed they could give a rat’s behind about what their customers thought of the quality.

      This is their crappy snap. The ball bearings in the twist lock fell out:

      Same thing with Simpson water hydrants. My really old AMERICAN made ones are fine. 1/2 the Chinese made ones are dead and have to be dugout and replaced, hopefully without breaking the water lines.

      Those are just two examples of the throw-away Chinese crap that drives me nuts!

      Liked by 5 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        G. Comb, the Chinese will make to what we want them to with cheap, poorly made products. That is okay by them because business is business, BUT the Chinese people today want the finest and best, so Xi has a few decisions to make to get the products they need and our American companies come back home or meet OUR standards here or no orders will be accepted from them for us. I can hardly wait for more products to be made here and the quality worth every penny. MADE IN THE USA was the biggy when I was growing up.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Bigbadmike says:

        G. Combs. Glad to see a QC guy on this site. Thanks for posting.

        Like

      • piper567 says:

        G, I was once required to snip zip-ties from cases of incoming as a part of my job.
        so I bought a metal pr of snipping pliers at The Dollar store rather than take in one of my own tools.
        The FIRST zip-tie I cut, the pliers Broke!! a nylon zip-tie! sand-cast pig iron…
        crap indeed, made in China.

        Like

  10. Mo says:

    U.S. China Perception Monitor

    China Should Learn from the U.S.’s Mistakes as Well as Its Achievements

    http://www.uscnpm.com/model_item.html?action=view&table=article&id=15605

    Like

  11. trapper says:

    “The “Compliance Mindset”, reinforced by central communist planning, is part of the flaw in the overall economic system.”

    This compliance mindset is foundational, cultural, and predated communism. In adopting Marxism, China may have thought it was westernizing, but it was not. The fundamental requirement for westernization is Christianization. Without it, one simply covers the non-Western compliance mindset with a different color of paint (red).

    “China approves and sends students to study in the U.S. to learn a skill-set absent within their own culture.”

    And so they continue to not get it. I don’t care how many tech degrees Chinese students drag home, or how many “entrepreneurship” programs they attend here. If all they do is overlay it on top of their non-Western and non-Christian culture, values, and philosophy, all they accomplish is a better understanding of what technology they need to steal first.

    As a guidebook for understanding why the USA is where we are today (generally) and why China as currently organized is destined to fail, the starting point is Rodney Stark’s book “The Victory of Reason.” Measure everything else you read, on any topic, against this book.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Mo says:

      O.K. i just downloaded this book on audible per Your recommendation.

      Like

    • Carrie2 says:

      Trapper, MAO was an outright communist (and marxism is not quite the same and this can be found with my spouse on what is real and what is not). He only thought of owning all and everything and was even worse the Qin (whose name became China) and was a mean devil, but MAO far worse. Some approximately 60 millions murdered and many died from starvation as he moved professionals to the fields and they knew nothing about agriculture, and farmers to the cities and they knew nothing about business. Or as my husband says, the only good thing MAO did was require education and it starts at age 3 and it ain’t play time. Deng came along after Mao and was somewhat better, but it has taken a long time for China to grow up but I see it becoming better and better and more into the people.

      Like

      • Bastiat says:

        Marxism is nothing but a failed theory. Communism is a method to achieve the theory that is also a failed theory.

        Neither exists in the real world, nor will it ever, most likely. Perhaps the marxist utopia could exist with sufficiently advanced technology, but if it does happen, it is more likely we’ll call that libertarian anarchy, as freedom and markets are the only path to advance tech that far to remove the necessity for human labor.

        Regardless, attempts to implement marxism can only lead to some form of destructive authoritarianism, and will never beat a market based economy in any field. The power of a small group of authoritarians can subjugate its people through the choke point of their bodies, but they can never, ever have the computational brainpower to out-compete millions or billions of individuals looking out for their own interests in any economy, industry, art or general happiness.

        Like

  12. ganesh says:

    Yup.

    And so, I am reading De Soto’s, “The Mystery of Capital”.

    “If” the underlying premise in the book is correct (“dead, trapped, or constricted” capital is holding back the third world), and China, as a third world country, decides to unleash its population/economic potential outside of state control, we are in for a serious run for our money, and will probably lose the GDP race*. If for no other reason there are simply a lot more Chinese than Americans.\

    There are a lot of pre-requisites to such a scenario – such as no war between the US and China, and the willingness of both sides to let a market economy sort things out.

    Posit the following for discussion:

    If China were to develop an American open market economy over the next 25-50 years, embedded in property rights and personal responsibility for results, who would have the bigger GDP?

    * This is not the only race, but begs that one take the long and polite view when dealing with any adversary/trading partner.

    Liked by 1 person

    • ganesh says:

      You know, as a grammatical multinational, I can never decide if the punctuation goes inside or outside the quotation marks”?”.

      Like

      • Mo says:

        They can not have an open market economy without rule of law. Rule of law is anathema to Communism.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Dutchman says:

        Depends on if punctuation is part of the quote.
        “RIGHT?”

        Or, “Right”?
        Either one COULD be correct, depending on CONTEXT.

        Liked by 3 people

      • piper567 says:

        ganesh, if your quote ends in a period, then that’s where your quote marks belong, outside the period of the quote. the period must be in the quote itself for this to be correct.
        as in, “I am that I am.”
        If you are quoting in parentheses, as above, you are correct, you only put quotation marks around that which is quoted.
        Sometimes, if you extract a quote from a sentence, it is proper to use … to indicate the words quoted are but part of a sentence.
        such as, The writers convey, the idea that “…dead, trapped or constricted capital is holding back the Third World.”
        Bless you for caring ab this.
        I’m pretty sure it is not taught in today’s “schools”, ha!

        Like

      • Pyrthroes says:

        If the quote does not include a punctuation mark, place it outside the quote.

        Like

    • trapper says:

      See my comment immediately above

      Liked by 1 person

      • ganesh says:

        I did read your comment, though I did not read the book by Rodney Stark.

        DeSoto’s rationale also predates modern communism, by several centuries, and indeed harks back to Roman Law.

        I think he argues it will be self evident to the modern communist rulers it is their own personal best interest to release the power of the population leveraged by the capital they have available. Which is quite tremendous, just untapped. The ruling cast will get much richer, and avoid the downside of a billion peasants/joe lunchboxes getting pissed off and going postal (obviously this is shorthand for his description)

        Liked by 1 person

        • Dutchman says:

          They have long recognised their strength is in numbers, so what you suggest makes sense.

          In war, their main tactic was to overwhelm with shear #’s.

          During earthquake, they mobilised 20 million peoples army to respond. So, releasing their people makes sense, but how, even over 50 years, do they overcome lack of self sufficiency, innovative thought, and rampant corruption inherent in central planned economy; how do they GET from here to there?

          Like

        • Carrie2 says:

          ganesh, actually many of the “peasants’ are now millionaires and billionaires so China has come a long way and with outstanding universities which are far better than ours, they are getting more and more modern and living better.

          Like

    • Carrie2 says:

      ganest, China is not a 3rd world country at all, but highly educated, hard workers, good universities (I studied in one of their best), better jobs, better incomes, and so much more. Now for a 3rd world country I would suggest Mexico still and I lived there for years. Sad, but this is exactly what the communist democrats want for our America and it will happen if we don’t support our President in MAGA together.

      Like

    • Bastiat says:

      If China were to develop a free market economy that could compete with us, the prerequisites for such would make them our natural friends and would create a better world for both countries. Economics isn’t a pie that can only be cut up in so many pieces that we need to fight over. It is a pie that grows. Your 10% of the pie can drop to 8% but if the pie doubles in size, you’re still far, far better off than you were before.

      Like

  13. Mike in a Truck says:

    I remember back in the mid 70’s the question was always asked-usually when enough alcohol had been consumed:Why dont we have a businessman as President?We tried lawyers(duds) an actor ( Ok) even a peanut farmer-sub captain-peanut farmer( remember Billy Beer?).A womanizer, a black muslim. But after those long years of darkness we finally got a businessman. Look whats happening. From the seat of a big truck Ive seen the economic devastation the last 4 Globalist fools wreaked upon our nation.Obama took that idiot Bushes recession and turned it into his depression. Oh yes we were.Quantative easing hid it from the American people.That is unless you were in the coal industry.Manufacturing/warehousing.Heavy equipment/machinery and all its allied servicers.Maybe this is why PDJT is so hated by his foes.Hes exposed them for what they are-Globalist First stooges.

    Liked by 5 people

  14. Dutchman says:

    Sundance,
    GREAT article, as usual. I do feel China has a SECOND inherent weakness in their system; corruption.

    The Chinese students you mention, cheat more than other students.
    Melamine in dogfood, inferior filler ingredients in drywall, the list is long.
    Cheating, corruption is as built into their system, as suppression of innovative thought.

    Perhaps it is the ONLY outlet, for innovative thought. Certainly it is prevalent within all levels of their society.

    Which means unless they change their society, they not only can’t compete due to lack of innovation, but because they will inherently produce an inferior product, due to corruption.

    Allowing or encouraging innovation in product design, manufacturing techniques, etc. while brutally suppressing innovative thought in other areas; politics, teligion, social associations, is simply not possible; the human mind doesn’t work thst way.

    Since their whole Conmunist Party system runs on corruption, HOW can they possibly eliminate corruption?

    In trade, they cheat because they must.
    If China doesn’t cheat,
    They can’t compete.

    And, in order to make the inherent changes to their system, to eliminate corruption, and develop innovative thought, means an end to one party rule, central down Conmunist party rule.

    I hope to live long enough to see how this all ‘plays out’, as I find it fascinating. This is THE epic contest of the Ages! HOW will it resolve?
    Also, further helps to understand why PDJT has focused, so much on Trade and China, and WHY he had to MOVE so fast, at “Trump speed “.

    Moved at 2-4 times normal government speed, despite or because he ‘was not a politician’, and was fighting deep state, even leaking his calls with foriegn leaders.

    So, China underestimated him, and by the time they realised PDJT was going to do something, it was already DONE.

    One might almost say he USED deepstate antics to his advantage, again to lull his opponent into having lowered expectations.

    Not saying 64d chess, just saying if thats the,situation, might as well take afvantage of it, where you can.

    I do wonder, with their lack of innovative thought, and inherent corruption, how well their military would perform?

    Shoddy equipment, corrupted supply chains, rote thinking at command, usually doesn’t bode well for victory.

    Liked by 3 people

    • ganesh says:

      They cheat, and there are shoddy controls, because there is no personal responsibility.

      There is no personal responsibility because they have nothing at risk (no property rights) and nothing to gain or lose based on the success of the product.

      Like

      • G. Combs says:

        WORSE they killed off their girl babies so they do not even have family.

        “In China and India, men outnumber women by 70 million. Both nations are belatedly trying to come to grips with the policies that created this male-heavy generation.”
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/?utm_term=.05a7bc9944bc

        On top of that is the ‘caste’ system that leaves a lot of educated Chinese women unmarried. I do not understand it and don’t have a link, but the info stuck in my mind.

        Like

        • Carrie2 says:

          G. Combs, the reason for once child is 1) too crowded cities, and 2) not enough food to feed more. However, after the Sichuan school collapsing, in big cities allowed 2 now and always in the agricultural areas from 4 to 8 still. Sad too that when you have an abortion you have crewed up your hormones and will always be sickly in some way. Many of them in my pediatric class were mentally disturbed because of an abortion. Why? BECAUSE THE LOVE THEIR CHILDREN AND WANT THE BEST FOR THEM while here we don’t see that happened way too much as many see a child or children as not needed, wanted, or loved. Thanks to no real education in 6 1/2 decades, many grandparent, parents and today’s student are only learning how to hate America and our Constitution of freedom and rights.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Janie M. says:

            Carrie, it is my understanding also that women who have multiple abortions will have a more difficult time carrying a pregnancy to full term when they finally decide they want the child, Must be the screwed up hormonal problem you referenced caused by the cessation of past pregnancies.

            Like

          • Dutchman says:

            Actually, I think we see a LOT of women permanently, psychologically scarred from abortions. How could they NOT be?
            Probably one of the leading causes of TDS in Females.

            Like

    • Post of the day, Dutchman!

      Like

  15. Mo says:

    Jimmah Carter’s “China Research Center” https://www.chinacenter.net/

    Have a look at this board of directors member Scott Ellyson
    He teaches American businesses how to offshore Their production to China.

    https://www.chinacenter.net/team/scott-ellyson/

    https://www.ewmfg.com/

    Liked by 3 people

  16. Dave Hunter says:

    Thanks Sundance! There is no blog anywhere that provides the understanding of what is going on with the China trade issue. I have always despised China and have considered them America’s #1 enemy since the fall of the Soviet Union.

    Liked by 2 people

  17. Perot Conservative says:

    So many huge sub-topics.

    1. Where would internal Chinese Demand come from? Still 100s of Millions of people living at the poverty level, or subsistence. So there is no Demand for unnecessary consumer goods.
    2. Massive Ghost Cities! See #1, and command economy.
    3. I worked for a Chinese-American company. Chaos reigned, your idea became their idea, software was copied, and saving face was most important.
    4. China ready to take control of some major Kenyan ports, loans defaulted. Some speculate this was planned, knew Kenya couldn’y make the payments.
    5. It seems every month I read about Chinese hi-tech theft in America.
    6. Didn’t Bill Clinton sell rocket technology to China?
    7. I now wonder if this well-publicized Chinese musical is part of a PR campaign.
    8. Recall the breathtaking, yet frightening opening ceremony at the Chinese Olympics?
    9. I’ve read China produces huge numbers of engineers, contrasted with our huge surplus of lawyers.
    10. Many University of California and Ivy League campuses are near 50% Asian, many Chinese.
    11. Taiwan.
    12. South China Sea
    13. Currency manipulation – are they truly that close to matching the size if our econom?
    14. China now attempting to put men on the dark side of the moon. Claims it will be profitable don’t seem to make sense.
    15. If we have a small (5%) penalty in the new NAFTA deal, will the new China trade deal really have teeth?

    Interesting times.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Maquis says:

      If the musical you refer to is Shen Yun, it actually seems to be part of the Pre-Red Chinese Culture in Exile. It is notably promoted by the Epoch Times which is pretty hard on the Regime, especially highlighting the plight of the Falun Gong who are now serving as involontary donors on demand for China’s surging organ transplantation industry.

      Not only are victims terminated in hospital at will, organs are even removed from innocents both alive and without anethestia, including hearts. Monsterous. China has much more than economic hurdles to address before it can join Civilization.

      Like

  18. Fools Gold says:

    There is no doubt in my mind either that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. In fact I believe he’s been preparing himself for this role for decades and pondering every move and countermove for all things related to all countries trading with the USA. Its the main reason I will always cast my vote in favor Trump and MAGA!

    Happy New Year!

    Liked by 2 people

  19. mikgen says:

    Wonderful news.
    Happy New Year to our host and all the Treepers.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. Carrie2 says:

    What many apart from Xi, have never had to parley voo with anyone but ignorant and/or greedy presidents (i.e.,Obama), and the 2 parties in 1, so were stunned by this very intelligent, hardworking, does his homework first and then they get bammed in the meetings so nicely and don’t see it coming, and don’t know how to play the poker game he plays. Reminds me of the TV program “Maverick”. Then they have admited they admire him and meet with our President on his terms, whether they like or not because it will affect their country and their economy. I find it interesting to find Pres. Trump in action all the while the other side thinks he knows nothing and bite the bait and get brought in like any fish on a hook. We prayed for Trump and God heard us. Now keep praying because we must take over the deep state/globalists/communist democrats and other rats! We, along with Trump will MAGA and we will a far richer country than we have had over several decades.

    Liked by 2 people

  21. G. Combs says:

    Useful for understanding where the globalist are coming from, the recent US foreign and economic policy is based on INTERDEPENDENCE. (Look up Al Gore and interdependence)

    “Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,” International Security, Vol. 20, no.4 (Spring 1996)
    Does economic interdependence increase or decrease the probability of war among states?

    With the Cold War over, this question is taking on importance as trade levels between established powers such as the United States and Russia and emerging powers such as Japan, China, and Western Europe grow to new heights. In this article, I provide a new dynamic theory to help overcome some of the theoretical and empirical problems with current liberal and realist views on the question.

    The prolonged debate between realists and liberals on the causes of war has been largely a debate about the relative salience of different causal variables. Realists stress such factors as relative power, while liberals focus on the absence or presence of collective security regimes and the pervasiveness of democratic communities.(1) Economic interdependence is the only factor that plays an important causal role in the thinking of both camps, and their perspectives are diametrically opposed.

    Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence – meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability – gives states an incentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to necessary materials and goods.

    The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars…..

    Liked by 3 people

    • Carrie2 says:

      G.Combs, remember that we had many “progressive” (meaning communist) presidents and in our so-called Congress so nothing new but with globalists, more communists, and more brainwashed voters we are having to fight to get back our country in any way we can.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Great punchline: “The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars…..”

      China’s not about “interdependence”.

      Their strategy is ECONOMIC ENTANGLEMENT to IRREVERSIBLY exfiltrate America’s intellectual property and wealth. The primary variable has been how fast, subject to brief periods of lucid American leadership that’s capable enough to delay their pace of progress … UNTIL TRUMP.

      Liked by 1 person

  22. Each time TRUMP takes aggressive action (ALLY TRADE DEALS … LAYERED TARIFFS … ALLY SUPPORT) TRUMP projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and then the action continues.

    RE: “Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and then the action continues.“

    Liked by 2 people

  23. G. Combs says:

    Another bit of useful information on China.

    The first I heard of China’s Century of Humiliation was in David Achibald’s book “Twilight of Abundance” David writes of The Century of Humiliation and that Xi Jinping, shortly after assuming the presidency, took all the members of his politburo with him to the museum the Party has built in Tiananmen Square, – the Museum of National Humiliation and Revival.

    A passage from an essay by the Australian defense analyst Paul Monk is very telling on the subject of what President Xi intends for Asia’s near future:

    In any case, Xi Jinping, despite his genial smile, good English, and familiarity with the
    United States, is no reforming liberal. Shortly after assuming the presidency, he took all the members of his politburo with him to the bizarre museum the Party has built in Tiananmen Square – the museum of national humiliation and revival. He pointed out to them the exhibits showing the arrival of the Jesuits via Macao in the sixteenth century and how this had been the beginning of the infiltration and humiliation of China by the West. He pointed out the exhibits showing the Japanese invasions of China and making the unfounded assertion that the Japanese were defeated by the Communist Party with a little help from “good” Nationalist generals. The Americans, he said, then became the enemy. “Against this external enemy,” he told China’s inner group of top leaders, “we must stick together.”

    To erase the shame of its century of national humiliation, China will need to have an unequivocal victory over somebody…..
    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2014/04/china_picks_at_the_scab_to_keep_the_wound_fresh.html

    Another article: Lessons of history: China’s century of humiliation and it is the USA as well as the UK who humiliated China.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Carrie2 says:

    Again, G. Combs, there are hundreds of Christian churches in China, and especially the Catholic Church and they are full. Slowly they have lowered their complete control because millions are going to church, or as one Chinese lady told me “they want God” and that was astounding but so true. I am Catholic so I have attended Church there many times, and even more astounding was in Malaysia where Kuala Lumpur has 7 Catholic Churches there, and a few others, and this is definitely a muslim country! As the many countries in the world have progressed, TV, cellphones, education abroad has affected many of them and churches are happening and full.

    Like

    • G. Combs says:

      Carrie2,
      Very good to know. Smart atheists like my husband realize just how important the church is to having the good sane morality & philosophy needed to build a decent civilization upon.

      It was Christianity that lead us out of the Dark Ages and slavery. Too bad that is no longer taught in school.
      ….

      Dr. Bill Warner, writer for https://www.politicalislam.com had a video I saw a couple years ago on Islam’s LITERAL destruction of the ancient civilizations. Evidence shows that after the islamic conquest of North Africa tons of fertile topsoil was washed into the sea as the Muslim goat herds destroyed the croplands of the Dhimmi.

      FOUND IT!
      Dr. Bill Warner how did Islam destroy the classical world

      Liked by 3 people

    • TMonroe says:

      Sadly, much persecution and regulation has redoubled in recent years.

      Like

  25. Laura Wesselmann says:

    China has always needed our consumers far more than we ever needed their cheap furniture and industrial hardware. Trump simply explained that reality.

    Like

  26. T H says:

    I stay in touch with a number of Chinese friends and colleagues via the WeChat smartphone app. In recent months I’ve gotten acquainted with a smart and well-spoken younger Chinese guy who attended university and law school the US. He’s currently returned to China and working as a paralegal at a law firm in Shanghai.

    This past weekend we were chatting about how the hiring situation is now with many businesses in China. (I’m in the tech sector.) He noted that his girlfriend is an interpreter at an IT firm where they just recently laid off hundreds of staff. (He said they used to have over 400, so if that’s right then that is a MAJOR cutback.)

    Another thing he mentioned is that within the last 2 months the Chinese State Department has sent a memo to Chinese firms saying the government will refund benefits to companies that have been paid on behalf of employees, if they will agree not to fire staff.

    I’m unclear on what he meant by “benefits”; perhaps employer-paid taxes on salaries? Any way you look at it, that’s a very significant move by the government to incentivize businesses not to do layoffs…. There would be no reason to do that if their economy was as strong as projected.

    I certainly have no wish for economic harm against my Chinese friends, but if the CCP has to face an unexpectedly strong counter-force from the US, as Sunance says they may be willing to actually make a substantive deal. (Of course, how long such a deal would last depends on preventing the Insane Lefties and the Uniparty Swamp from taking down POTUS. Sigh.)

    Liked by 2 people

    • Robert Smith says:

      Over the course of the last year, there have been field reports from some posters that have opportunity to work, run businesses, or contract with businesses in China. There have been clear rumblings that this has been building for a while. I guess the thing with China is they haven’t experienced a down cycle. They have always been fortunate to be on the plus side due to kid gloves and very favorable trade deals. As nervous as the people who may be losing the jobs are, the people higher up well melt down as things start spiraling downwards.

      Liked by 1 person

    • T H says:

      bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-12-31/china-s-economic-slowdown-is-worsening-stop-dithering-beijing

      Like

  27. Troublemaker10 says:

    Trump had said several times recently that China wants a trade deal but that he doesn’t think it is not quite time to make it yet. The inference is that Trump was waiting for optimum moment.

    If Chang is right….we are probably near the right timing….and Trump seems to be indicating Feb or March.

    Like

  28. Troublemaker10 says:

    Excerpt:

    However, 2019 will be where the reality of economic pain meets calls for more credit. Beijing is trying to negotiate an end to the U.S.-China trade war as internal opposition to the conflict gains momentum. The dispute has sapped confidence within China and is pushing the government to consider painful market-opening concessions.

    The trade negotiations have probably delayed Beijing’s response to the economic downturn, as officials wait to see what concessions they may have to make (the U.S. and other countries are pushing for verifiable changes to Chinese protectionism and overseas investment). With reports of a weak job market and falling asset prices, their indecision becomes more problematic each day.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. Pyrthroes says:

    Like Special Relativity, Trump’s Panda-Dragon calculus is rudimentary but its implications for global peace-and-prosperity on American national terms are ultimately subtle. Try a fun exercise in simple math: Where China’s economy is X, the regime’s zero-sum mindset formulates x^2 + 1 = 0.

    Hoo-hah! On this facetious basis, x^2 = -1 so that x = the square root of -1. But of course there are no negative roots: This result is the classic “imaginary number” designated i. In physics, any equation with i as a component converts a material/physical (“real”) relation to a complex/virtual (‘imaginary”) operation, deriving a so-called Hamiltonian dynamic [from William Rowan Hamilton, 1805 – 1865] that lies at the base of all Standard Model science.

    True enuf, only nerds will find find this interesting. But see Scott Walker’s “Dilbert” cartoon for New Year’s Day 2019 (amended): “I’ll be doing (nothing much) all day.” “You could visit your mom.” “That’s what I just said.” Regarding ChiComs’ soft-totalitarian, dirigiste economy, Hsi Chin-p’ing’s [Wade-Giles] pullulating clerisy has a bad case “Mom visitation” syndrome.

    Like

  30. Maquis says:

    The Chinese have some non-economic ideas about our current conflict:

    https://m.theepochtimes.com/hawkish-chinese-officer-suggests-sinking-aircraft-carriers-to-intimidate-u-s_2752729.html

    That sounds a mite extreme, perhaps, but perhaps China knows they can’t bluff President Trump and they can’t afford to wait it out until 2020 reveals the next Four Year Plan, so to speak.

    Like

    • i'm just sayin'.. says:

      China will be pouring boatloads of money into influencing 2020…… (and the bought and paid for uniparty dither and point to squirrel Russia)

      Like

  31. JimmyB says:

    Thanks for your help and caring
    Mr. President?

    Like

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