GDP Second Quarter Estimate Revised Upward to 4.2%: Expanded Investment, Decreased Imports…

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis presented the second estimate for the second quarter GDP growth.  The second review increased the growth upward to 4.2%.

Within the data (full pdf release w/ tables) there are several interesting aspects.

(1) The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was mostly accounted for by investment in software. (2) Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Within goods, the downward revision was widespread, the largest contributor was petroleum.

In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $122.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an upward revision of $0.4 billion.  (source data)

For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years…. Then came the era of Trump.

Overall the MAGAnomic policy of the Trump administration is working on multiple sectors of the Main Street U.S. economy simultaneously.  Keep in mind, all of this is happening BEFORE the trade policies and renegotiated trade deals kick in.

As the Main Street economy continues to expand, wages are increasing.  It is noted that all wage measures are continually being revised upward as the value of labor within the economy continues to thrive.  Due to increased labor value, in combination with decreased tax burdens, workers, specifically middle-class workers, are seeing large increases in actual take-home pay.  This means more spending power, more disposable income, which also fuels the expanding economy.  It’s an upward growth spiral.

More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare/social service programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar – the saved sum is doubled. That is how the SSI and safety net programs are saved under President Trump.

When you elevate your economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional and expanding.  Growth-Growth-Growth.  Jobs-Jobs-Jobs.

As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.

The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street.  They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.

Simultaneous to domestic capital investment inside the U.S., the ability of our nation to provide goods and services to meet the economic expansion, means less reliance on imported materials, goods and/or services.   We are making more of our own stuff; exporting at a larger rate; and importing less – specifically due to the energy independence strategy within the larger Trump policy.

Every granular policy is like a small part in a larger machine.  Each individual part of the MAGAnomic policy is working to compliment the larger objective.

This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Economy, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Transportation, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

88 Responses to GDP Second Quarter Estimate Revised Upward to 4.2%: Expanded Investment, Decreased Imports…

  1. Sweet Old Bob says:

    Is Canada about to fold on trade ?

    Liked by 5 people

    • Dennis Leonard says:

      No ,but you are off topic.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Michael says:

        @DL
        (1) How so? If Truedope chases Canadian business to the USA how will that not increase biz here?
        (2) Are you the duly authorized arbiter of topic relevance?

        Liked by 9 people

        • Ausonius says:

          Good question, and yes, Canada will be forced to do something to establish a
          “Fair Trade” agreement.

          Ironic: Socialists are usually all about “FAIRNESS”! Recall MAObama telling the Ohio plumber that high taxes were not about income, when the plumber (Joseph Wurzelbacher) dared to point out that higher tax actually lead to fewer dollars in the Treasury. Taxation was about “fairness”! Rich people (i.e. you) have to kick in more to level the playing field.

          So now we have Socialists supporting Free Trade rather Free AND Fair Trade!

          No, Sweet Old Bob is not off topic! 😉

          Liked by 7 people

    • railer says:

      Justin says he thinks they can reach an agreement by Trump’s Friday deadline. I guess the adults in Canada have got to him, and the automakers as well. Trump’s obviously executing a cramdown, with very little bargaining. I also am seeing some chatter in Canada that their dairy program is flawed, so it appears the propaganda arms of Canadian government are recognizing that they’re going to have to prepare the public for some dairy concessions.

      Liked by 8 people

    • old45model says:

      And on that note, didn’t one of your past Presidents state that “The business of America is business”? Or, in lieu of ‘America’, did he say ‘U.S.A.’? As an Aussie, it isn’t something that is at the forefront of my mind – but it did sneak past at high speed.
      [This is a comment to Sweet Old Bob’s post, in case it posts out of context.]

      Like

      • Ghost says:

        President Calvin Coolidge.
        Coolidge once said, “The chief business of the American people is business.”
        My grandfather stated he was the best President of his lifetime. History as written by socialist incorporated has pretty much erased his legacy.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. HBD says:

    The media and the resistance party still will not credit VSGPOTUS.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. Lemmy says:

    There goes Trump waving that magic wand again.

    Liked by 11 people

    • New Nonna Again!!! says:

      Haha! Awesome!
      😂🤣😂🎉👍🏼🦁🇺🇸🙏🏼💖😂🤣😂

      Liked by 1 person

    • Fools Gold says:

      I bet that Muslim regrets his idiot remark. It will go down in history as the stupidest remark by any sitting POTOS. Don’t get me wrong, he has plenty of other stupid comments to add to his God aweful history…

      Liked by 1 person

    • jnr2d2 says:

      My cell phone I-phone with the Safari search engine would not display the meme at all!!!. But the search engine “BRAVE” will. It’s a free download and blocks 95% of pop-ups that slow you down!!

      Like

  4. MattyIce says:

    Love the good news, the future looks bright and fills my heart with happiness for my children and my children’s children! MAGA. God bless POTUS and the rest of the patriots!!!

    Liked by 5 people

  5. Dennis Leonard says:

    Sundance ,I saved this,is it still sandbagged.
    “sundance says:
    July 27, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    Additionally, ….{{{ just between us treepers }}} I can tell you with absolute certainty this BEA report was sandbagged at 4.1%. G.U.A.R.A.N.T.E.E.D.

    Unfortunately I cannot share how I know; but when the next revised update comes out on August 25th, don’t be surprised to see that number jump significantly. [Possibly nearing 5%]

    Liked by 10 people

  6. pgroup says:

    “I have a dream.”
    — MLK

    “I have a nightmare and I can’t wake up.”
    — BHO

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Ditch Mitch says:

    Merkel gets smaller and smaller every time I look at that picture.

    Liked by 4 people

  8. kinthenorthwest says:

    Thank You Sundance…This is what confuses me so much about the left…America is finally doing awesome after a couple of decades of crapville and the left wants to destroy Trump & Americans behind him. What is really sad is the measures that the left is winning to take to destroy Trump and America.

    Not Tired of Winning Yet? The US Economy Is on Track to Have Its Best Year Since 2005

    https://ijr.com/2018/08/1119765-us-economy-growth-trump/?utm_campaign=Conservative%20Daily&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=65545470&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8QnP6K8wb2-qBPBp-hriCYXiAd_keGWxDTlZD1IdAVgnFHMpFIniCt4Gp4BCrqgTEI5sRPApcPAf5zPRm5pD9TnP7szAnidBONOM52eV8tC2UUxbc&_hsmi=65545470

    Liked by 3 people

    • DanO64 says:

      There is nothing the left wouldn’t do to defeat MAGA. Even the unspeakable.

      Liked by 1 person

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      You’ve heard that saying “Misery loves company?”

      If you observe Leftists you also know how they fight over which of them is most miserable.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Sharon says:

      “This is what confuses me so much about the left…America is finally doing awesome after a couple of decades of crapville and the left wants to destroy Trump & Americans behind him.”

      The only reason I can imagine that you find this confusing is that you think what the left is doing must surely mean something other than what you know it means.

      The instant you begin to believe what they reveal about themselves, you will no longer be confused.

      There is nothing confusing about any of this. They do mean to destroy our Republic and are able to attract an audience that listens to them. Those whose hold on power depends on deception will always be able to find a self-selected audience willing to be deceived.

      And that is why the ability and willingness to THINK matters a great deal.

      Liked by 3 people

      • kinthenorthwest says:

        Its the people that are blindly following them like it will be good for them.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Michael says:

          I wonder if a lot of it isn’t projection.

          Many leftists have accomplished little or nothing in their lives, will leave nothing to remember them by, and so hate anyone who has actually accomplished something.

          They seek to destroy DJT because he is everything they are not.

          Liked by 1 person

          • kinthenorthwest says:

            What gets me about what I call the Liberal trolls is so many of them don’t even have 100 followers even after 5 years or more…
            Hey took me a year to get around a hundred but I didn’t really start tweeting that much until 2015/16 when I got hooked because of Sundance. From 2008 to about that time I was mostly lurking and liking some posts.

            Liked by 1 person

    • MB224 says:

      They hate Trump because he crushed their two wet dreams- Hillary and Barry. No two people have had more delusions attached to them than these two. So you combine that with Trump’s rough edges and you can the full-scale delusional hatred. It’s disgusting that adults are reduced to behaving like 5 year olds but this will continue until the full extent of the Democrats treason and worse is revealed. They’ll still hate Trump but their delusions will be shattered beyond repair. They’ll be silenced. That’s why these idiots are recruiting even younger and dumber lackeys like Cortez and Gillum in FL.

      Like

  9. Florida_Frank says:

    I’m confused as to what the 4.2% applies to. I thought it was the growth of the economy on an annualized basis, but SD’s graph title says it is the change from the preceding quarter. Would someone please enlighten me? Thanks!

    Like

  10. permiejack says:

    A revised Atlanta Fed GDP Now should be available tomorrow for the third quarter. The revision will be for the Personal income and outlays report. Currently at 4.6%.

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=fa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a93

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Dennis Leonard says:

    more spin from cnn,notice 2014.
    ” It doesn’t change the overall picture of how the economy is doing, and it remains the highest rate since the third quarter of 2014.

    The robust number can be explained in part by businesses rushing to export their products in advance of expected tariffs on foreign goods imposed by the White House, which have drawn retaliatory duties from China.

    Economists broadly expect growth to slow in the coming months, to round out the year at about 3%. Estimates for the current quarter range widely, from a forecast of 2% growth in the third quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to 4.6% from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “

    Like

  12. usayes says:

    As SD so aptly points out, the key here is that the projected GDP increase does not account for the Trade Deals as they haven’t kicked in yet. Once that happens, OMG, “Mr Zulu, warp drive please!!!”

    Liked by 5 people

  13. Sentient says:

    If the stock markets stay where they are or go higher, people will be getting 3rd Qtr statements (IRA’s, 401k, investments) at all-time highs … right around the middle of October. Perfect.

    Liked by 3 people

  14. Deplorable_Infidel says:

    “They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.”

    I distinctly remember this going back quite a way (was not mentioned too much at the beginning, around ~30 yrs ago) and thinking to myself, “Who are the morons pushing this?”

    This was the answer:

    “The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street”

    The political whores let it happen, despite national security concerns that should have prevented it. As I posted over on the Presidential thread earlier today, my neighbor (Lou M.) is fond of saying, “We have the BEST politicians that money can buy!”

    Liked by 3 people

    • Sylvia Avery says:

      I was just thinking as I was reading the article that the first I remember about the “service driven economy” message was that I heard it in some job training in the late 80s/very early ’90s and it gave me a cold chill then. Because while I am no economist, I thought “paper hat jobs? No one will be able to live on that pay. This isn’t good. Why are we going there???”

      This was about the same time that I started reading about our changing demographics and how shortly everyone would be speaking Spanish and wasn’t that just the greatest thing ever???

      Thank God for President Trump.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Donna in Oregon says:

        I remember too. Some companies that brutalized workers in California had to send displaced (laid-off NAFTA workers) to counseling and contracted with companies that specialized in handling NAFTA victims. Same thing after 9/11. They actually had contracts with multiple companies for “bereaved” American workers. I remember one was in San Diego.

        It’s hard to train your replacement en masse. Many Americans had a very hard time finding work and their lives were decimated.

        But hey, the Mental Health professionals got a real boom from NAFTA.

        Liked by 1 person

    • stephen fenlon says:

      Meanwhile the UK slowly circles the drain due to it’s “Service Driven Economy”. we paid off the banks and socialised the losses. the Tories talk about reducing the deficit, NOT THE NATIONAL DEBT. the current Govt. recites how much they reduce deficit- in effect they reduce subsidies to local councils, who up their own local taxes to cover shortfall.

      The Govt, is so frightened of Brexit because the Service Economy is the Banks in London who are petrified of losing access to European markets. Germany and France are just champing at the bit to move the Stock Exchange. Without that we have nothing ! And the City of London, (where the Banks are ), has a largely unknown say in how Parliament acts. Mining;Cotton Industry; Steel and other manufacturing have all been gutted for political ideals because they are centred up North in primarily Labour Party constituencies.

      The NHS is now a Health Lottery dependant on whether you live in an affluent area or not, Yes a foreigner can attend Hospital and be treated free at point of care, but as a non citizen you are supposed to be billed for your treatment , although you rarely are ! Pensions people worked and paid towards have been spent as bribes by Govt. and so the age of retirement is being pushed back.

      We in the UK need our own TRUMP !!

      Liked by 2 people

  15. Fools Gold says:

    We’re watching our country morph from MAGA to America is great again! We’ll need another good acronym soon. Suggestions?

    Liked by 1 person

  16. trapper says:

    And that’s just boring 2Q. 3Q has all the back-to-school purchases, and 4Q has … Christmas!! Up to 5% 3Q and 6% by the end of the year after all the revisions.

    Liked by 2 people

  17. Donna in Oregon says:

    The 75% rule will make a huge difference to real GDP on parts. If automotive parts are made in the
    USA then selling an American car will be more profitable for Americans.

    I hope President Trump is careful with the automobile industry. They’ve been crooked for a long time, including their Unions. They used the 2008 meltdown for shenanigans.

    Interesting testimony by this Professor Todd Zywicki before Congress

    https://www.mercatus.org/publication/administrations-auto-bailouts-and-delphi-pension-decisions-who-picked-winners-and-losers

    But then it’s hard to trust these Professor guys too, reading up about how the good Professors make their money. Is no one compromised? Guess not….

    “Jim Overdahl, an economic consultant formerly with National Economic Research Associates, told The Nation that professors can fetch $5,000 per letter submitted to a regulator.”

    “Darrell Duffie, a professor of finance at Stanford University, is paid more than $200,000 in cash and stock every year for his board membership at Moody’s, the rating agency. Moody’s has championed him as an asset given his contacts with regulators. “Dr. Duffie has significant expertise in a number of areas that are directly relevant to the Company’s core business operations…and his opinions regarding financial regulatory reform have been solicited by various arms of the US government,” noted Moody’s when it nominated him to its board, listing the Senate Banking Committee, the House Financial Services Committee, and the Federal Reserve as places where Duffie enjoys access.”

    https://www.thenation.com/article/scholars-who-shill-wall-street/

    Remember Moody’s helped create the Mortgage Meltdown with the high stock ratings given to the portfolios filled with sub-prime (bad) mortgages bundled into stocks and sold to investors worldwide…… for the Derivatives and Libor aside. Anyone wondering what happened to London wasn’t paying attention to the Derivatives and Real Estate that took a dive worldwide.

    Liked by 2 people

  18. Reloader says:

    The article says, “As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker.”

    Does this mean that when my Social Security payments start, that the amount may increase from the initial value? I don’t see how that can happen, due to the fact that it is based on how much I paid into it, and the age that I am when I start drawing benefits. (And of course, SS payments are taxed as if they are regular income, because it’s not our money it’s the gov’t’s.)

    My experience is further proof that VSGPDJT is NOT starting a Trade War, but that we HAVE BEEN in a Trade War for many years. I was FORCED into early retirement, because Technical work that I did in several industries all went first to Japan and then to China (and other Asian nations) … because American companies and American consumers refuse to pay their fellow countrymen (and veterans) a living wage.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. If the wage base (total of all wages) increases, then monies in the Social Security “trust fund” and towards Medicare will increase. This should stave off the current projected date when the Soc Security trust fund is “broke” (2034), though according to link below, outlays for social security retirement payments exceed incoming collections this year. Of course, the “trust fund” is a fiction as the monies are co-mingled in the federal budget.
    If we can get more courageous legislators then we might be able to tackle entitlements in Pres. Trump’s second term. I don’t see how we can continue on the current course, even with a much improved economy–though that certainly helps. I am expecting that whatever I eventually receive in social security payments will be taxed to make up the difference (My husband and I have saved so we will have better than average retirement income stream from investments and his pension. I only have 401-K).
    Note also that that economic fool, Elizabeth Warren, was calling for nationalization/total regulation for businesses with revenues over $1B recently.
    We need to be sure we get people VOTING for Republicans to continue MAGA policies!
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

    Liked by 2 people

  20. MAGAbear says:

    Listened to an analyst on the radio who said the 4.2% surge was due in part to businesses making financial moves before tarriffs go into effect. Hmmm, maybe it’s because of the tarriff threats that businesses are doing better! Hard for many to see that their economic theories don’t work in the real world.

    Like

  21. Chris Four says:

    The GDP over a longer time

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Pyrthroes says:

    “”Granulated” as in “to the last detail” is a hallmark of integrated strategic –beyond opportunistic, tactical– operations. Trump Prosperity transcends biblical proportions… his mills do not grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small.

    Like

  23. It seems that Trump’s figures are revised upward while Obama’s were revised down more than a few times.

    Like

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