Final Fourth Quarter GDP Increase 2.9% (exceeds expectations), Third Quarter Revised Upward to 3.2%…

The final quantification of the Bureau of Economic Analysis fourth quarter GDP growth rate was released today, reflecting an anticipated increase from the prior two estimations. The last revised estimation of GDP growth (February) was +2.5%, the final revised estimate is +2.9% growth.

A massive increase in consumer spending (+4%) around the October through December 31st time-frame (Q4) was offset by those dollars purchasing a large portion of imported products.  The GDP growth deduction from import purchases was 1.99%. [See table #2, line 50 pdf here]

In short, American consumers spent significantly more than usual in the holiday season; however, many of those purchases were foreign goods.

From the BEA Report – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains thesame; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up. (more)

We anticipated this adjusted increase back when the first BEA result was posted, for two reasons: #1) The original estimations were contingent upon almost no domestic inventory remaining at the end of Q4 (highly unlikely); #2) The import deduction was the largest deduction in the past decade (possible, but again too early to quantify). The resulting adjustments announced today reflected exactly these two items.

(Via CNBC) While robust consumer spending curbed the accumulation of inventories, the slowdown in inventory investment was not as steep as previously reported.

Inventory investment rose at a rate of $15.6 billion in the fourth quarter instead of the previously reported $8.0 billion pace. (link)

Look closely at the last part from CNBC above.  The BEA underestimated inventory investment by 50%?  Think about that….  you don’t miss figures by that amount unintentionally.  It’s called ‘sandbagging’.  I digress.

The bottom line – in Q4 we exported more than the past 4 years (+.83%), but we imported more than any time in the past ten years (-1.99%). The net impact was a deduction from GDP growth by -1.16%.

[*note* a reasonable correction in the trade imbalance of 25% (through smart trade deals) means the Q4 GDP could have been actually 3.5% instead of 2.9%]

The cumulative net result was an end of year (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP increase of 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016.

MAGAnomics works.  We just need to support Trump and keep on keeping-on.

Now think about this….

President Trump appointed Gary Cohn to keep Wall Street invested; and throughout 2017 the Trump administration kept their trade cards close to the chest – it worked.  The Stock Market bought into the ploy that POTUS Trump would not disrupt the dynamics of Wall Street’s multinational global trade ideology.

However, they were not paying attention to the granular details under the radar, as evidenced by the action of Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  Throughout 2017 there was a ton of pre-positioning of assets taking place.

As soon as Team Trump gained massive increases in Wall Street (stock market) evaluations, we now enter year two where President Trump dispatches Gary Cohn and enlists Peter Navarro to carry out the MAGAnomic America-First agenda which includes rapid-fire renegotiated trade deals.

Brilliant strategery.

Bigly.

…in addition to MAGAnomic winning, you might just stop a nuclear war with North Korea.

Stay small, think BIGLY.

MAGAstrong

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, China, Conspiracy ?, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2016, Japan, media bias, President Trump, Taxes, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

53 Responses to Final Fourth Quarter GDP Increase 2.9% (exceeds expectations), Third Quarter Revised Upward to 3.2%…

  1. deepdivemaga says:

    Stay small, think BIGLY.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Hoosier says:

    Not first but I read it all in detail and then reread it.

    Liked by 1 person

    • fleporeblog says:

      Liked by 6 people

      • fleporeblog says:

        Liked by 4 people

        • I’d be very interested in the GNP (or GNI) figures and how they compare with the Obama era.
          I think many American businesses might be making some good money with their investments overseas. The products from those investments are imported into the US. The import figure is deducted from the GDP, but the profit figures are only included in GNP or GNI.

          Liked by 1 person

          • lokiscout says:

            Who cares? Capital investment, wages and taxes are paid to the foreign country and foreign national workforce. How does that help the American economy? Well other than multinational investors (Wall Street).

            GNP is a Wall Street metric vs Main Street GDP.

            Like

  3. CorwinAmber says:

    y’know, if the President can pull off this NORK thingy and couple it with yuge economic growth in our country, he will not only Make America Great Again, but he may very well Make Earth Great Again…hmmm, MAGA = MEGA, who’d thunk?

    Liked by 13 people

  4. Pam says:

    You know this has to have the dems quaking in their boots. Still not tired of winning! 😀

    Liked by 5 people

    • It all looks good and I am very impressed.
      There is one word of caution.
      Don’t underestimate the Democrats.
      I don’t think they quake easily.
      When cornered like a rat, they will strike like one.

      Liked by 2 people

      • What makes you think that isn’t what they’ve been trying to do for the past 18 months? 🤔

        Liked by 5 people

      • G. Combs says:

        From the point of view of the rank and file Democrat (not the Commies) President Trump is doing EXACTLY what they want in many cases. Bringing back jobs for the working class and helping small business among others.

        This is why the DNC HAD TO stir up such hatred towards President Trump. They absolutely have to use emotion to keep their voters from objectively evaluating President Trump.

        Liked by 5 people

        • spren says:

          Gail, having grown up in, and having spent most of my adult life in Western PA, you are exactly correct. This strong industrial and union territory was always traditionally Democrat. But those Democrats were born into it and were not locked into their stated party affiliation. They are really Independents and vote the issue and the person.

          Trump gave them a reason to cross party lines just as Reagan had done in 1980. People vote their personal interests and their wallets. The Democrat Party abandoned these people years ago and still has nothing but contempt and disdain for them. These are very proud and hard-working people, and when Democrats tried to placate them regarding their job losses and destruction of their communities by stating that they can have welfare benefits, it enraged them.

          These people want their middle class lifestyles back again, and PDJT is showing them how they can get it back once again.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Curry Worsham says:

      PDJT’s got their number.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. citizen817 says:

    In short, American consumers spent significantly more than usual in the holiday season; however, many of those purchases were foreign goods.

    When manufacturing returns in a bigger way,
    American goods can replace foreign goods!

    Liked by 11 people

  6. Doug says:

    It’s truly special what hes accomplished so far but i think we have seen nothing yet!

    Liked by 5 people

  7. littleanniesfannie says:

    2.9%. Crumbs?? What say Ninny Puh-loosey??

    Liked by 4 people

  8. Pam says:

    Liked by 10 people

  9. Sylvia Avery says:

    This is wonderful news, and I enjoy watching things play out the way Sundance has predicted.

    So who is this Bureau of Economic Analysis whose reporting is sandbagging MAGA? They are part of the Department of Commerce. Wilbur. I love you, man, and you’re doing great work for us but in your spare time, ho ho ho, you need to replace whoever is running the BEA and get a real person in there and not an Obamamaton.

    Liked by 11 people

    • wheatietoo says:

      Absolutely, Sylvia.
      Get some Wharton grads in there, like PDJT…kick out any Harvard or Yale ‘economists’.

      If these are the same people who covered for BarryO for 8 years, then they need to go.

      Liked by 4 people

  10. kinthenorthwest says:

    Trump Rocks
    Go Trump

    Liked by 7 people

  11. Curry Worsham says:

    Wolverine Strong.

    Liked by 7 people

  12. MM says:

    The more sandbagging they do the more they wake up the American People to their dirty little tricks……

    Liked by 2 people

  13. dufrst says:

    Trade is the key as was pointed out by Sundance to above 3% growth. Without fixing the trade equation, the US would not possibly reach plus 3% growth and don’t think this was not the goal of the globalist and leftists. They want the US to be taken down a notch. They pray for the day the US is not the number one economic power.

    They were counting on the EU to displace the US economically but they didn’t count on Brexit. Without Britain, the EU will never catch the US.

    They are even more counting on China to surpass the US by nominal GDP (pay no mind whatsoever to GDP by PPP. That’s a joke.). But they didn’t count on Donald J. Trump to be elected president. China had this fancy 10 year plan to supplant the US in technology by continuing to steal our intellectual property unabated come hook or crook. Well, not only will they not surpass us in technology, they are going to lose their top perch in manufacturing when Trump is through with them! MAGA!!

    Liked by 4 people

  14. GB Bari says:

    This obviates the need for the reset on trade deals with the nations that have been enjoying lopsided advantages against the U.S. Fix the import-export balance and thus eliminate the outflow of GDP and the numbers are right where PDJT predicted they would be.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. kinthenorthwest says:

    A beautiful picture..

    Liked by 4 people

  16. wheatietoo says:

    We were hit with 3 Hurricanes in the 3rd Qtr last year.
    These created losses that had to have affected our economic bottom line.

    I don’t know how those losses were figured in…or even ‘if’ they were figured into the GDP equation…but I would imagine that the Totals for those losses would have hit in the 4th Qtr.

    Purchasing goods to replace those lost in the Hurricanes could have accounted for part of that ‘increase’ in the Trade Imbalance for the 4th Qtr.
    Millions of households and businesses were affected by those Hurricanes.
    And they had to buy a lot of things that were lost or ruined.

    Anyway, I see this as good news.
    As jobs return…and there are Made-in-USA goods for people to buy, these GDP figures will go up and up!

    Liked by 4 people

  17. A2 says:

    I recommend everyone read the USTR on China that sundance posted earlier. You will see exactly how China works and the economic MOAB coming in their direction. That should add a few percentage points, say +10 to the GDP. 😀

    https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/march/section-301-report-chinas-acts

    Liked by 4 people

  18. TheLastDemocrat says:

    2.9%.

    Suspicious Cat. Suspiciously a whisker lower than 3.0%

    Liked by 4 people

  19. CorwinAmber says:

    y’know, I really don’t see how you can count the first quarter of CY2017 against the President since he took office on 20 Jan…soooooo, let’s take a look at the first quarter of CY2018 and then calculate what the GDP average was for the first 4 FULL quarters of our very stable genius’ time in office. Since all he’ll need is a 2.8 to get to 3.0, I’m betting he gets us there…I’m just sayin’

    Like

  20. churchmouse says:

    Lots of reports of cancellations in the comments and this: ‘There are alternatives’.

    Like

  21. Foolsgold says:

    3.2 headed to 4, all part of the MAGA agenda and winning strategy. The only thing barakobutt gets credit for in my book is shovel ready jobs which is part of the Marxist agenda…

    Like

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