If anyone has sources in Turkey, or knowledge of current dynamics in Turkey, or insight we would really like to hear from you.
The intents, inclinations, sympathies and motivations of Recep Erdogan are brutally obvious. What’s lesser known is how far the underpinning of Turkish politics is willing to allow his ideology to advance. After all, Erdogan is one man – leading one party – and there are opposition forces within Turkey which could, if pressured, become a danger to him.

Our current working theory, given known players, ideology and research into actual behaviors, is this:
The ISIS trade for the 49 Turkish hostages was made without payment. So what would the Quid-pro-quo involve?
Given all of the sympathies and tendencies two things are obvious. Erdogan is essentially more adverse to Bashir Assad then he is to ISIS, and ISIS is politically savvy – far more so than al-Qaeda was, and more in line with the political expertise of The Brotherhood (founded in 1928).
Given that, would the quid pro quo involve an acceptance of, and unwillingness to stop (per se’), the ISIS driven exodus of Kurdish refugees upon the nation of Turkey? If so, how far -and how many refugees- would Turkey allow ISIS to drive into the border region, before Turkey would view the inbound masses as a risk to the societal constructs and domestic objectives of Erdogan?
Would Erdogan accept unlimited Kurdish migration as his part, his contribution, in the (willfully blind) support of ISIS objectives? Is there a tipping point where the volume of refugees changes the dynamic? Would he be willing to accept them all? Can he control the political structures with a million Kurds inside the border, or would he need to support ISIS in killing off a number of them prior to their exodus?
ISIS is smart politically, which indicates another aspect of the Qatari Brotherhood connection. ISIS knows how to leverage their will against the interests of other parties who might be compromised by the expression therein.
Both Syrian and Iraqi Kurds are being driven into Turkey, yet Turkey is doing nothing to stop the root cause, ISIS. So what gives? It’s almost appearing as if Erdogan is willing to allow his ideological compatriots, Sunni ISIS, to push their enemy (Kurds) into Turkey. Why?
Is this migration acceptance the Erdogan payment?

The Kurds, fueled by suspicions that Turkey is supporting the Sunni Muslim militants, have clashed at Mursitpinar in Turkey with Turkish security forces who have fired water cannon and tear gas in a bid to prevent them joining the fight across the border in the Syrian town of Kobani.
Is Turkey, vis-à-vis Erdogan, intentionally stopping the Kurds from fighting ISIS ?

[…] The growing Kurdish anger towards Ankara poses the biggest threat so far to a historic peace process initiated in 2012 by now President Tayyip Erdogan, an effort to end a three-decade insurgency by militants pushing for greater Kurdish rights.

The conflict has killed 40,000 people, most of them Kurds.

The outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) said Ankara had violated a ceasefire, declared by its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan in March last year, by supporting Islamic State.

Commander Murat Karayilan declared the ceasefire ‘finished’ in an interview with a TV station close to the PKK this week.

While Kurdish politicians involved in the process have been more cautious, the allegations of Turkish support for Islamic State – strongly denied by Ankara – are widely believed by Kurds on both sides of the border. (link)

ALSO:

The U.S. Central Command said the air strikes destroyed an IS building and two armed vehicles near the border town of Kobani, which the insurgents have been besieging for the past 10 days. (link)

Pathetically weak U.S. efforts -at best- aimed at ISIS near the border with Turkey.
Is this only to keep up appearances for/with the Kurds who have generally trusted the U.S. ?
The Kurds are a phenomenal fighting force, and additionally motivated by the fact they are protecting their own homeland.   It’s brutally obvious if the U.S. and/or Coalition forces were to directly support the Kurds – the Kurds could easily defeat ISIS in the region being discussed.   So what the heck is going on?
MY FEAR:  My fear is that back channel discussions between Obama and Erdogan, both brutally obvious Sunni sympathizers, are underway – and an agreement to sacrifice the Kurds to the altar of Assad removal has taken place.
Perhaps this is why both Turkey and the U.S. appear almost disinterested in fighting ISIS in relationship to the plight of the Kurds both in Iraq and Syria.

Your thoughts ?
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