The only public poll released so far in the 2016 presidential primary race of Indiana voters reflects essentially what has previously been shared via ground reports.  Candidate Donald Trump is holding a lead and there is a remarkable increase in voter enthusiasm.
♦ Indiana votes on May 3rd. ♦ It is an open primary, Democrats, Republicans and Independents are allowed to participate. ♦ There are 57 delegates available. ♦ The primary is “Winner-Take-All” by district and state-wide. ♦ 9 districts x 3 delegates per (27 total), and 30 delegates to the overall state winner:

(Via Howey Politics) The poll was conducted by pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies from April 18-21, with a 500 base sample and both Democratic and Republican over samples. The margin of error in the Republican race was 4.3%, while on the Democratc side, it is 4.47%. (more…)

Candidate Donald  Trump is holding a rally today in Harrington, DE at The Delaware State Fairgrounds – Quillen Arena.  The event is scheduled to begin at 4:00pm EDT
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream #1

The Donald Trump Campaign website has provided the following resource for Pennsylvania voters:

Source Link – Printable Version Available

Pennsylvania is a rather odd primary system.  There are 71 total delegates available, however only 17 of those are bound to the winner of the overall state primary vote.  The remaining 54 delegates are voted for on the ballot itself, and are considered ‘unbound’ delegates able to vote for their preferred candidate.
18 congressional districts x 3 delegates per district = 54 delegates.

(Poll Data Link)

That said, many of the unbound delegates have committed to either vote for the winner of their congressional district, or stated they will vote for the state winner.  All of the delegates had to submit their name for candidacy prior to February 16th, 2016.
According to a spreadsheet put together by Phil Kerpen, there are also 26 (electable) self-proclaimed Cruz delegates and 34 (electable) self-proclaimed Trump delegates.
There are 27 delegates who are not committed to any specific candidate, 59 who expressed their commitment to the district winner, and 5 who say they’ll support the state winner. (more…)

In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “2016 Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Presidential Race and/or any of the candidates therein.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.
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A very interesting and exceptionally in depth poll from Sextant Strategies (two pdf’s below) of California voters shows candidate Donald Trump is in a commanding position within the state.
Interestingly, the poll highlights two overall categories voter: 1. Registered Republicans who have voted frequently in all recent elections; and 2. New voters who are registering in astonishing numbers in order to vote in this year’s primary.
Donald Trump is leading with traditional republican voters (41%), and is crushing the field with those holding new registration (53%).  The internals and crosstabs of the poll are a very interesting read.  Here’s the topline result:

Candidate Donald Trump is winning with all demographics (men, women, age, race, income level, education etc.) within the cross tabs of the poll.
However, Trump’s lead expands significantly when you review the “new voters” who are registering by the thousands.
(more…)

Candidate Donald Trump is holding a rally in Harrisburg, PA at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex & Expo Center. The event is scheduled to begin at 7:00pm EDT:
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream #1 – Alternate Live Stream #2

Indiana has some of the most ardent laws forbidding unsolicited voter contact which eliminates most polling organizations from conducting organized polling.  As a direct result there have been almost no polls conducted in the state, leaving a great deal of speculation about the state of the race.

Additionally, there’s a transparency of motive within the political media to jump over the April 26th primary states and focus attention on Indiana (May 3rd) to frame a narrative of larger political interest.
Indiana has clearly become the best hope for candidate Ted Cruz sell his position that he can stop Donald Trump from achieving the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright nomination victory.   Ergo Politico delivers an article showing some “private polling” information that helps maintain interest in the storyline: (more…)