Candidate Donald Trump takes a commanding lead (34%) in the latest Fox News Iowa poll (full pdf below).  Ted Cruz comes in second at 23% and Marco Rubio 12%.  No other candidate comes close.

However, additionally worth noting is the under representation of several electorate flags (ex. cell phone users) which would add confidence the impression that even with these results, the size of Donald Trump’s support is understated.

This baseline polling probability is enhanced when you review the Margin-of-Error for the sub-groups.  Obviously, all of this is exceptional news for Donald Trump with a week left before Iowa caucuses… (more…)

The latest Zogby poll of national GOP voters shows Donald J Trump with a commanding lead of 45% a full 32 points higher than second place Ted Cruz.  Additionally an Arizona poll shows Donald Trump at 38% 22 points ahead – LINK –

(Via Zogby Analytics) […]  Mr. Trump polls over 40% among men (49%) and women (41%), as well as Republicans (47%) and independents (49%), conservatives (46%) and moderates (45%). Mr. Cruz scores double digits among men (10%), women (16%), Republicans (15%), independents (10%), and conservative (15%).

We tested a series of three-way races and found Mr. Trump trouncing all of his rivals — 53% to 20% for Mr. Cruz, and 11% for Mr. Rubio; 57% to 23% for Mr. Cruz, and 8% for Mr. Christie; 57% to 23% for Mr. Cruz and 7% for Mr. Kasich; 55% to 25% for Mr. Cruz, and 10% for Mr. Bush.

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CNN/WMUR have conducted another poll of New Hampshire voters (full pdf below).  Candidate Donald Trump extends his lead and is now positioned (34%) solidly 20 points higher than second place Ted Cruz.  Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are tied for third place with 10% each.

Notice how Kasich is no-where close to the continual ARG polls (20%)?

Candidate Donald Trump is also winning significantly on the key issues. (more…)

Several people had been mentioning “the lack of polling”…  It appears today/tomorrow will more than make up for it…  (((snicker)))

Via PPP Polling (with full pdf below) – North Carolina was the first place polling ever found Donald Trump leading the Republican Presidential race, and he just keeps getting stronger. PPP’s newest poll finds him at 38% to 16% for Ted Cruz, 11% for Marco Rubio, 8% for Ben Carson, 6% each for Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, 4% for Chris Christie, 3% each for Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul, 2% for John Kasich, and 1% for Rick Santorum.

Trump’s support is up 5 points from a month ago when he was at 33%. The only other candidate who’s seen a real gain in their support is Huckabee, who’s climbed from 2% to 6%. The main hopeful dropping is Ben Carson, who’s fallen from 14% to 8%. Besides Carson the only person to see their support decline by more than a point is Marco Rubio, who’s dropped 3 points from 14% to 11%. (more…)

A new Florida FAU poll (full pdf below) shows candidate Donald Trump extending his lead and nearing the 50% threshold.   At 48% Trump has increased his lead by 11 points since the same poll was conducted a month ago.

Ted Cruz comes in a distant second at 16%, with home-state Senator Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 10% – the rest of the field is irrelevant in Florida.

The polling also includes the general Florida electorate enabling head-to-head match ups between the Republican candidates and Democrat candidates.  (more…)

A recent Florida poll conducted after the South Carolina GOP debate is almost identical to the last South Carolina poll (Trump leads with 32%).

In Florida Donald Trump holds a commanding lead with 31%, Cruz second with 19%, Bush 13% and Rubio 12%.   Rubio/Bush combined total 25%, still behind Trump.

The jump into Third Place for Jeb Bush is an important part to watch.  As we have previously shared, we should expect to see Bush begin inching out his own GOPe teammates.

Also, as previously explained, Bush/Rubio support should be considered a combined UniCandidate total.   One will endorse the other, depending on timing – our prediction remains that Rubio will defer to his mentor Bush, eventually (either during the mid to late stages of the race, or at the convention).

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We shared last week due to the increasingly urgent calendar numerous political Tripwires would be triggered rapidly.   An example comes today as North Carolina releases advanced notification of their 2016 Presidential Primary ballot.

However, before getting to the ballot, it must be emphasized that the GOPe will NEVER give up on Jeb Bush. Jeb is “their guy”, period.

♦ An example of how severely they are willing to protect him was evident on January 8th when Fox News released their polls which saved Jeb from the embarrassment of being kicked off the main debate stage.

Without that individual poll Jeb did not, and would not, qualify. ♦ Another example was evident during the debate, when South Carolina party officials stacked the audience with party loyalists. ♦ Another example came the following day (yesterday) when South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham endorsed Jeb.

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Unlike the chatter amid most of the professional punditry we don’t view the Ted Cruz -v- Donald Trump debate confrontation as the most consequential part of the GOP debate in South Carolina.   The exchange between Donald Trump and Jeb Bush regarding China and trade economics was actually the most revealing.

Donald Trump pointed out because of the size of our market we have tremendous leverage on China; leverage we have failed to use for the past three decades.

For the sake of brevity, I’m going to accept that most readers here are familiar with who is funding and directing Jeb Bush, and in larger, more consequential measures, the DC apparatchik in charge of U.S. Policy, ie. Wall street.

In retort to Trump pointing out a necessary shift in trade position (a shift to put American interests first – a shift to stop the dependency on cheap import goods – a shift to use China’s dependency on access to our market to OUR advantage) Jeb Bush came back with an example of Boeing manufacturing. (more…)

Fox Business News will be hosting the GOP Presidential Debate tonight. Hosts Neil Cavuto and Maria Bartiromo will be moderating the Prime Time debate at 9:00 p.m. ET, from the North Charleston Coliseum and Performing Arts Center in North Charleston, South Carolina.

In addition to the TV broadcast, Fox Business will be live-streaming the debate HERE and also you can find a radio broadcast of the debate HERE – there is also a live-stream ap available HERE (i-phone and android users).

STREAMING COVERAGE HERE

If you are watching – share your thoughts and comments below