Mark Levin isn’t talking about it.  Sean Hannity isn’t talking about it.  Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham are not talking about it, yet it remains one of the biggest structural benefits to Team Jeb Bush in the 2016 primary presidential race:

Frustrated Conservatives Leaving The Republican Party

Independent political registration is the fastest growing base of electoral voters, and that plays nicely into the hands of the GOPe who are working diligently to avoid accountability for their progressive agenda.

Multiple states have what’s called “closed primary” races.  Meaning only those voters registered with a party, who has a candidate on the ballot, are allowed to vote in the Presidential Primary Election, or PPE.   Those state voters only get to vote for the candidate registered with the same party of their affiliation.

Even more states have “Modified primary” races.  Meaning voters registered independent are allowed to vote on either party ballot they select at the polling station (along with those who are registered within the party on primary ballot). (more…)

We have exhaustively outlined the GOPe road map to insure the nomination of Jeb Bush for the Republican Presidential Candidate in 2016.   While the road map is rather complex, it essentially boils down to a strategy of small accumulated delegate pickups using 15-20% electoral support.

Candidates George Pataki and Jim Gilmore have already been disqualified from the Alabama Primary, yet they remain in the race.  Only a handful of candidates (Bush, Trump, Cruz and to a lesser extent Rubio & Fiorina) have efforts underway to qualify for ballot placement in all of the states with primary dates prior to April 1st 2016.  (more…)

Wow.  Reset the Polls, This is YUGE !!

Candidate Ben Carson’s support for Obama Trade (TPP) is a massive divergence from most conservatives and now puts him in direct opposition to Donald Trump.

(Via Wall Street Journal) Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said Friday that he supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement negotiated by the White House – aligning himself more with the GOP’s establishment wing than with the social conservatives who have powered his campaign.

Mr. Carson’s backing of the 12-nation Pacific trade deal places him at odds with Donald Trump, his chief rival for support among anti-establishment Republicans. Mr. Carson had expressed skepticism about the TPP, saying in a June interview with the Huffington Post that he would not give President Barack Obama “fast-track” authority to negotiate the deal. (more…)

The latest CNN/ORC poll from Iowa (full pdf below) shows Donald Trump remaining in the lead despite various prior efforts within agenda-polling to highlight a divergent narrative.  Trump leads in all categories of voter concern: ♦ Economy ♦ Illegal Immigration ♦ Foreign Policy ♦ Medicare and Social Security.

Ben Carson leads on “social issues”: Abortion and Same-Sex Marriage. Ben Carson remains in second place which seems to belay the concern that Carson’s opposition to federal corn subsidies (outlined in prior debate) would diminish support.

Marco Rubio continues to retain benefit from “Operation Hummingbird”; however, the evident weakness in Rubio’s ability can be measured against the visibility of the Chris Christie insurance policy being called to action by MSM/GOPe operatives.   Ted Cruz is positioned to take most of Carson’s evangelical supporters if collapse occurs. (more…)

*NOTE* Do not for a moment think Fox is moving away from their mandated/scripted narrative to eliminate the Main Street Vulgarian, they’re not.  Remember, the next debate (Nov 10th) is on FNB and Team Trump have already announced intents for the campaign to negotiate debate conditions.  The FNB debate line-up is expected to be announced tomorrow, and Fox Needs Trump.

Within this latest national Fox News Poll (full pdf below) three interesting aspects.  ♦  Donald Trump is leading despite the methodology and breakdown.  ♦  Donald Trump is viewed as most likely to defeat Hillary Clinton.  ♦ Fox News sub-contracted the data collection to two different partisan polling outfits: Anderson Robbins Research (for Democrats), Shaw & Company Research (for Republicans) from November 1-3, 2015:

Via Fox –  Is the race for the Republican nomination finally shaking out?  Four candidates get double-digit backing — and then there’s a steep drop-off to the rest of the field.

The latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election finds that Donald Trump has the edge, as GOP primary voters by wide margins identify him as the best candidate on the economy, as well as the one most likely to beat presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.  The poll also finds Ben Carson remains within striking distance of Trump. (more…)

Here’s the latest results from a Quinnipiac National Poll released today (full pdf below).  Unfortunately, yet again, even with all of their resources, the polled sample is intensely small (only 502 republicans).

At this point these large organizations, NYT/CBS (300), NBC/WSJ (400), and now Q-PAC (500), using small samples to present a national narrative – cannot reasonably be considered coincidental.  These quantifying decisions deliberate; they are also sketchy and bear the familiar signatures of media ‘gaslighting’:

(Via Q-PAC) Trump gets 24 percent of Republican votes, with Carson at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 14 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 13 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided, and 63 percent who might change their mind. (more…)

The latest Florida Poll, (Data Link) of 2700+ registered voters, shows how broad and deep the dominance of Donald Trump continues to be in a very important state.

Not only does Trump leads the top line favorability, but also leads in every category of concern with voters.  In addition, Trump is leading every demographic, and every region within the state; including the South East where Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush live.

3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the Republican primary, and 826 were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, both on March 15, 2016.  (Full Poll Data HERE)

Somewhat of a shake-up in the second tier.  The latest PPP Iowa Poll (full pdf below) shows Donald Trump on top ahead of Ben Carson – so much for that prior MSM narrative showing Carson as frontrunner – however, that’s only the beginning.

Ted Cruz is the biggest gainer amid the field coming in at 14%, while Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee, each with 6%, are beating Jeb Bush – ouch.

(Via PPP Polling)  PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds a tight race on the Republican side in the state with Donald Trump at 22%, Ben Carson at 21%, Ted Cruz at 14%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal each at 6%, and Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina each at 5%. Polling further back are Chris Christie at 3%, John Kasich, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum each at 2%, Lindsey Graham with less than 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki each with no supporters. (more…)

Monmouth University has a new poll of New Hampshire (full pdf below). Jeb Bush spent $6+ million only to see his numbers Trumped even further.  However, don’t underestimate the influence of the structural advantages retained by Bush; Jeb will never drop out.  

For now John Kasich and Marco Rubio are winning the NE white wine spritzer crowd (2nd tier country club community); and this is the poll result the media need to advance the corporate media Rubio-surging narrative.

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump maintains his sizable lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary and Ben Carson holds onto second place, but the latest Monmouth University Poll has found a new occupant in the 3rd place slot – Marco Rubio.

GOP primary voters are also unhappy with the recent budget deal reached by Congress, and their ire is directed at both parties. One-in-four (26%) likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire continue to back Donald Trump for the presidential nomination. (more…)

(Via Breitbart)  The 2016 GOP presidential campaigns agreed on Sunday evening to cut the Republican National Committee (RNC) out of the debate negotiation process and instead deal directly with networks moderating debates, Breitbart News has learned.

Corey Lewandowski, the campaign manager for frontrunner Donald Trump, confirmed to Breitbart News via phone on Sunday that the “biggest consensus” of five separate points the GOP campaigns agreed on was cutting the RNC out of the negotiations with the networks, as the campaigns would each like to negotiate with the networks directly.

In response to the revelation that the RNC will be cut out of the process, RNC chief spokesman Sean Spicer—the party’s point man on handling debates until now—said the RNC stands ready to help the candidates in any way they can. (read more)