At least from my limited perspective, the biggest surprise coming from Operation Epic Fury so far is the counterstrike reaction from Iran toward the rest of the region. I have reached out to several people about this, and everyone has a different response.
Within a few hours of the operation against Iran beginning, the Iranian regime began firing counterstrikes against the entire Arab region. Instead of their traditional approach toward striking back at limited U.S. military bases in/around Iraq and/or Israel, Iran began firing missiles and drones into the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain.
Brief recap map of the first 24 hours of attack sites, contrast with a map of known U.S. military bases.
This seemingly wanton striking out against the entire middle east region was not something CTH expected to see.
Additionally, the Iranian targets were not just limited to U.S. military bases, the missiles and drones were launching toward all kinds of random infrastructure throughout the Arab world. Most of these missiles and drones have been intercepted; however, no one has yet established a reasonable thesis as to why Iran chose this approach.
In a recent interview with Jake Tapper, President Trump also said the White House and Pentagon were surprised at the civilian targets selected by Iran for retaliatory strikes. The White House, State Dept and U.S. military did not expect to see Iran retaliate against regional allied partners, and the reaction has been for the Arab countries to be even more supportive of the attacks against Iran.
All of the Arab countries that seemingly would have sat on the sidelines and given tacit support, are now openly providing support and even expressing a willingness to get involved with their own military to assist. This is a first.
That said, the action by Iran doesn’t change the approach the U.S. is taking, but it does beg the question: why are they doing it?
Again, these are not U.S. military installations being targeted; Iran isn’t just shooting missiles and drones at U.S. bases, they are targeting nonmilitary infrastructure and even civilian targets (hotels, apartment buildings, commercial real estate).
The expenditure of the Iranian counterstrike armament, the targets they are selecting, doesn’t gain Iran any material benefit. So, why do it?
Any thoughts?
President Donald Trump told CNN’s Jake Tapper in a nine-minute phone interview Monday morning that the US military is “knocking the crap” out of Iran – but the “big wave” is yet to come.https://t.co/0rhIowcppw pic.twitter.com/sWLrvDLmVi
— CNN (@CNN) March 2, 2026
Jake Tapper notes President Trump has said “a big wave is yet to come,” meaning the U.S is prepared to launch another phase against Iran that will hit even harder than the current targeting of military assets and infrastructure.
I’m left to wonder if the regional targeting by Iran is strategic, or if their top tiers of military command structure were so devastated the local command centers were essentially left to use their own targeting decisions, and that led to a random set of launches at just about everything they could program as a target set.
However, a “big wave yet to come” might make sense, if you think about Iran’s seemingly wanton striking at every regional nation as probing to destroy radar capacity and air defenses.
If Iran is holding back strategic hypersonic missiles for later strikes after probing or degradation strikes, then yes as soon as those hypersonic launch locations surface there would need to be a massive blitz of overwhelming force to preempt the launches.
Essentially, what a person might call “a big wave yet to come.”
Iran continues to maliciously launch ballistic missiles, indiscriminately targeting military and civilian locations throughout the region. U.S. forces remain on the hunt to eliminate this threat. As the President has said, our resolve has never been stronger. pic.twitter.com/SDdvaL38yp
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026
BREAKING: The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States – Bloomberg
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 2, 2026
The bottom line is that they always were a threat to everyone else.
OTOH, this might be the LGBTQ strategy of blaming others for what they themselves are doing.
Iran wants to drag the entire Islamic world into a fight that they think will bring in the 12th Imam and, by bombing everyone, would try to blame the destruction on the “Great Satan” and “Little Satan”.
Beat me to it!
We can’t take out whoever is responsible for firing off the missiles fast enough. “big wave yet to come”?
HAHA spot on the debased mind set. God said when people go their own way he allows them to think for themselves without any common sense from him. Romans 1.
Iran said they would do this after the 12 day. They believe that this is existential and they can expect to end up like Libya and with the mercy afforded Palestine.
Their stated objective is not to defeat the US military but to cripple global energy supply.
Very simple – Shia vs Sunni.
The thing I find most interesting is that none of the missiles targeted the Ottomans in Istanbul, their closets neighbor to the NW. Things that make you go hmmm.
Hoping President Trump is keeping a close eye on Erdogan. The Ottoman Turks are sure to have their fingers all over any sort of “regime change” with their involvement leveraging their ability to control the “on/off” button to massive immigrant hordes flooding into Europe.
Mossad redirecting the Iranian missiles to targets in the nearby countries to bring them more actively into the conflict?
🙄
🙄 indeed!
Or space aliens
Thanks for the analysis, Tucker.
instead of another eye roll emoji I’ll just say it…. GIVE IT A REST!
I have no idea, but it did occur to me that to Iran, this is a religious war, not a logical war. Something to do with the Sunni versus Shia muslim theologies. Possibly.
Just a bread crumb rolling around in my head.
Mullahs are crazy zealots however that doesn’t make them stupid. Nor does it make their enforcers inferior tacticians. That & they’re in bed with the CCP.
Sun Tsu, Appear weak when you are strong. We may be in for more surprises.
One could argue that, though not stupid, their crazy zealotry could cloud their thinking?
Missles are the ultimate terrorist. Fire them off at a soft target and it if does strike it’s target you get terror.
They are hoping to terrorize the entire Middle East, hoping to blackmail them into going against the United States. Alas the goat ropers are finding out it has backfired.
Now it will continue until we kill enough wanna be dictators .
Every time a new one pops up and gets JDammed the line of succession will dry up.
When that happens they are thru.
If they could terrorize the countries were we have bases to close off our access it would be a downgrade to our ability to pound the shyte out of the goat ropers.
Although it may not ultimately be feasible if the US/Israeli airstrikes are successful at obliterating much Iranian military command-and-control infrastructure, the Iranian strategy likely is to deplete US air defense capabilities by forcing a steady dispersion of our assets into all the bordering Arab states. While it looks “unfocused” as you first noted, Sundance, it also corresponds somewhat with the 1900’s Russian tactic of deep battle – putting pressure on all front lines at the same time. Makes it difficult for an enemy to retain a dedicated striking force in a single place if it’s done right.
This strategy was noted first by Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christophorou of the Duran.
They’re probably betting we’ll run out of interceptors before they run out of drones and rockets. And then come their hypersonic strikes. Similar tactic we saw in the 12-day war. They kept smacking Israel till Israel cried Uncle.
Every non-shill analyst sees exactly what is happening. This is a disaster.
Your concern is noted. Now go hide.
Every red blooded American knew this fight was coming. Just like all the old west movies a few always save a town of worry warts frozen by fear to act.
If the fight is coming hit first and the hardest. Iran was the Middle East bully, who is now getting a shool yard beat down.
The reason the Socialist Democrats are losing their minds is because they use the same tactics as Iran, and now they are worried that they have a beat down coming.
High Noon in the ME.
The new sheriff is facing the enemy head on!
I think you are correct. The attacks against Gulf countries is a result of the decapitation. Default instructions to lower level commanders was to send out ordinance before it is blown up here. Use it or lose it.
I’m not sure that’s deep battle. I always thought that was the initial attack and breakthrough with the forces to follow on through the break and DEEP into the enemy rear areas. The Germans practiced this against them with extraordinary results through 1942. The Russians finally developed their version around about 1943 with it’s culmination in Operation Bagration in 1944 (they were somewhat successful in 1942 with their counter-offensive during Stalingrad). Drone warfare has made that version of deep battle nearly obsolete. Anyway, not trying to be argumentative, just making the point.
I think you have that in reverse Trump had to tell Beni to knock it off. I may be wrong please expand my ignorance.
Maybe a few Iranian missile sites were infiltrated by Israeli agents, who used a few random missile strikes as an opportunity to drag Sunni nations into the war.
Iran would’ve had better results shooting at random container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up the price of oil drastically.
…well, after all, you are talking about brainless idiots with nothing left to lose.
religious zealots
Amir Tsarfati quoted this guy:
Iran’s Attacks on the Gulf States: Rampage or Calculated Risk?
Anyone who believes Iran’s response against the Gulf states is a “loss of control” or blind revenge is misreading the system. What we are witnessing is a cold, calculated, and ruthless strategy aimed at internationalizing the conflict.
Iran understands that in a direct war against the technological superiority of Israel and the United States, its chances are limited. Therefore, it seeks to transform the confrontation from a localized crisis into a global earthquake through five main axes:
Brinkmanship Strategy:
The message to the West is: “The landlord has gone mad.” Iran is signaling that if its regime is in danger, the entire global order is in danger. The objective is to pressure the United States into halting strikes due to hysterical international pressure.
The Energy Weapon:
Striking oil facilities in the Gulf is not merely an attack on Saudi Arabia — it is an attempt to create chaos in the global economy. Iran is betting that China and Europe will not tolerate soaring oil prices and will pressure Washington to stop the campaign at any cost.
Breaking the Coalition:
The message to Gulf states is clear: “American protection is a broken reed.” The goal is to push them to demand that the U.S. cease using their bases and airspace.
Diverting Attention and Resources:
Every Patriot battery redirected to defend an oil installation in the Gulf means less protection for other strategic assets.
Preserving Prestige and the ‘Axis of Resistance’:
To maintain its status as a regional power, Iran must demonstrate meaningful strike capability. If it cannot reach the American homeland, it will target strategic American assets within reach.
Bottom Line:
Iran is not “losing its mind.” It is attempting to manufacture a deterrence equation in which the cost of continuing strikes against it becomes too high for the entire world. This is an effort to force a ceasefire through the Western consumer’s wallet and through China’s strategic interests.
(Shlomo Filber)
That’s a lot of words for something that just doesn’t make sense.
Too much if this then that…. then that…. then that… then that…
It just doesn’t track with reasonable reality.
👉Sundance has suggested a loss of command and control during this initial phase. It’s plausible that in a loss of command and control that pre-sighted targets that would likely get through are hit by any remaining Iranian missile and drone launch sites. 👈
👉As to the deeper tactical and strategic why, some of your other observations are logical as well as the philosophical approach of Iranian Islamic propaganda. One should consider that Shia doctrine is actually believed by adherents including leadership 👈
I actually agree. Wanted to put it here in case someone else could explain it better
G’morning SD. I agree with your sage wisdom. The commentary just doesn’t add up.
My two cents…loss of command and control = chaos. What many commenters seem to miss is all of the previous ground work President Trump and his Administration have done in the Middle East. Iran has been the bully for far too long. This tantrum of low-level thugs, flinging missiles and drones at civilian targets does not help coalesce support for Iran. If anything, the whole school yard is realizing the bully needs a beat down.
…steps off soapbox…
I’d change the channel. A lot of commie gobbly gook.
Brinkmanship: Thankfully we have Trump at the helm and he has spent so much time forming relationships with the Arab nations, and he is not easily, if ever, intimidated. So far, what we’ve seen is approval of Trump from the International Community, even if begrudgingly.
Energy weapon: Hence, Venezuela + getting the drill baby drill going again here in the U.S.
etc.
I think Iran’s strategy may have worked under a different President in a different time. I do not see Russia and China coming to Iran’s aid because that means direct war with America. I also do not see the U.S. showing everything we have available militarily in this particular fight. I do see Arab nations who depend on wealth from oil wanting to protect their interests, but not against America – against Iran.
Interesting.
P.S. I only have uninformed thoughts.
The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States – Bloomberg
My guess is “the big wave yet to come” will hopefully destroy or degrade Iran’s missile sites such that the UAE won’t need more interceptor missiles!!!
Could they be trying to encourage a public opinion backlash against POTUS and his Allies in the west ? ?
I honestly don’t think they care about a public opinion backlash. They care about Jihad. Join them or die. Basically.
Maybe the strategy is to draw fire onto innocent Iranian civilians in retaliation,
and they believe this will make the West look bad?
BREAKING: Iran‘s top diplomat says it’s not at war with Gulf neighbours but US bases in their countries are ‘legitimate targets’
Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo.
Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.
Could Iran be targeting civilian areas in the hope that the weak-kneed and generally Left-leaning international press would blame Trump for causing the deaths they themselves caused? It has worked before.
Good theory
President Trump and his administration doesn’t give a F what the international press has to say.
Or they are not soft targets at all but house CIA assets.
The Big Club Shadow Pirates are BIG MAD!
Stop with the Q nonsense.
Brian Cates is a nut.
First warning.
I think Cates took one too many LSD trips 🤣
Very interesting.
I’ve been following several interesting people on X.
The targets aren’t random, but are focusing on resupply locations. The US uses a “lilypad” approach to logistics. A(America)-B-C-D-E(UAE). When something kicks off at spot E, supplies start flowing in from D, who is resupplied by C, etc. Instead of having to come all the way across from A. What Iran is doing is blowing up C and D in the logistics chain as well as E, extending supply lines and slowing everything down.
As for the “civilian” targets (hotels, apartment buildings, commercial real estate)? I’d be willing to bet that there’s a lot of CIA/Langley assets that suddenly went dark. Contractors and off-the-books types providing intel that China/Russia is providing targeting data to Iran to hit.
Do not be surprised to learn that there are already Delta teams inserted already to locate targets.
This tactic has been used before
Hoping they left the piece to Mossad, tbh
Would the assessment change if Iran did actually have a nuke or 2 buried away somewhere?
They had extras and were sharing the joy?????
How can the US preempt hypersonic missiles fired from mobile launchers which disappear before they can be targeted and destroyed?
They know/knew this was for all the marbles, and the chances of them winning are next to zero, so let’s get the whole area involved. Strike out anyone and hope for the best. It is a good thing they don’t have an illicit nuke lying about. They would definitely set that off.
Russia and Iran are allies, but I can’t imagine Putin handing over hypersonic missile tech to the mad mullahs. I lean towards thinking that Iran’s centcom is offline, leaving the individual missile sites to act on their own. The strikes they’re attempting appear to be done purely for the hell of it.
Russia is not an ally by choice. Iran is everything Putin is not and hates.
That’s what this Iranian higher up was saying in an interview I read yesterday. Maybe we are giving them too much credit
I listened to a podcast on February 18th where General Blaine Holt was interviewed and he said the most “dangerous” scenario would be that Iran react “asymmetrically” and directs missiles at the other Arab countries – not at the U.S bases but at civilian structures. So I was very impressed when it turned out how prescient this General was. My understanding of “why” they would do that these “experts” believe that Iran is a British operation and what the British and the EU want most of all is to create WW III. They seemed to fail to do that with Ukraine – so, according to this argument, Iran is the next best chance to create the crisis needed to trigger WWIII. I am not saying that this argument is correct. I am simply reporting the concepts of other “experts” that I have been listening to. For what it is worth.
Iran is rudderless and sinking fast at this point. Its leadership has been wiped out. Its military has been destroyed. Its media has been overtaken. Its people are rejoicing. Indiscriminately launching rockets into the neighborhood is just desperation.
I’m inclined to believe this theory
Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one. Decapitating the leadership left individual units on their own to fire back at targets of their own choosing. No organized response in place.
That’s what I personally think happened.
Agree.
My thought? “Chicken with its head cut off.”
They had standing orders and there was no one to tell them NOT to fire.
Agree. Wacky group.
I think they are firing at “whatever” because that’s their only options left. Maybe the missiles were all pre-programmed, and whoever’s left just pushed the button/s.. and whatever was programmed was where they were sent.
Yes I think it’s odd (stupid) that the ISRG is belligerent until the very end. But that’s their M.O. Hopefully the new gov will be better.
Iran is similar to Democrats and our Left, going down in flames yet still lashing out as if they have any say in the matter. They poked the Big Dog and have now found out the consequences. I do like PDJT call to Emir, “When can I expect a check for $300M for the three F-15’s you dumba**’s ‘mistakenly’ shot down yesterday? You’re lucky the pilots survived.”
Very similar.
Yes Sundance, this was actually rather predictable. The Iranian leadership had known since the last bombing that the likelihood that they’re physically living on borrowed time. That belief became a reality a few days ago. They knew they were likely going to die and that evil mindset then will lash out to destroy anything and everything. Panicked, ruthless and psychopathic. Burn it all to hell mentality. I’m not surprised in the least bit.
Bottom line is they’re toast. Yay!
It’s funny, I just had a thought regarding this earlier.
Is the attack on Iran part of the Board of Peace? Did the other Arab nation say we can modernize and move forward with Gaza if the Iranian regime is eliminated.
It seems like the other nations are supporting. Interesting indeed.
I think this too is rather simple. Thr nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan (maybe) have all drawn the same line in the sand. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon period. If they do the those nations have no other choice but to pursue them and a much more muddied future. The nuclear weapon is the cornerstone in all of this. The rest is just fog and chum in the water.
Thoughts?
They are helping China (albeit futile) by keeping our military engaged in this region.
Fortunately, our military knows this.
scattered decision making / preassigned orders? just shoot off the wad
Iranian military is decentralized and following predetermined orders and targets. Those preselected targets being Israel, US bases and ALL SUNNI majority nations. Iraq has not been targeted and is Shia majority. Iranian Leaders are fanatical muslims. Logic does not play a factor. Destroy all nonbelievers (includes Sunnis) and go to heaven.
It always lead to The head of The Snake.
How Team Obama used a “Know Nothing” Media to sell its devious Iran Deal
“The average reporter is 27 … They literally know nothing.”
It is the reason today that we are bombing Iran. To sell it, Team Obama lied about nearly everything. Once the lies were exposed, the media decided that the lies were a sign not of deceit but of cunning, to wit, this headline from CBS News: “The Obama administration’s useful lie about Iran talks.
SOURCE : major Garret
Way back in Dec 2013
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-obama-administrations-useful-lie-about-iran-talks/
Iran is showing restraint by “only” targeting civilian areas. The message is: your oil fields are next.
Iran is threatening to cause a global recession and end President Trump’s golden era.
Maybe Iran thought the other ME countries would go after the US for striking Iran. They might be showing the other ME countries that they are paying a price for being US allies.
Maybe they are just like cornered animals. They will take everyone down. So, they are just animals, they never had a high regard for human life because they keep putting their HQ’s under schools and hospitals and instruct all of their terrorist spawn to do the same.
I’m thinking most of the Middle East gave their tacit approval for these strikes (the region wants to become more like Dubai) and Iran was stopping investment.
The only country who could have given us a headache, and also a nuclear power, Pakistan, remarkably got into a war with Afghanistan only a few days before… Hmmmmmm.
I am not at all surprised that Iran retaliated and not at all surprised that those missiles were aimed at civilian targets, that being said, I am a little surprised they targeted other Muslim nations and not just Israel. Maybe Iran sees those other Middle East nations as either not the right kind of muslim or not muslim enough for them.
Dead enders settling old imagined scores. And, of course, elected democrat politicians support this. The enemy is here.
Strategy of disruption.
Cause chaos.
Then try to fill the void.
Just going out with a bang?
Like a fireworks finale Inshallah-style.
Just a thought; could we (the US or Israel) be somehow interfering electronically, and guiding these missiles to other-than-intended targets, in order to bolster support? Possibly cynical…but…in this day & age…
There was an interview of one of the Iranian higher ups. He said there is no military command center anymore. That weaponry is just in the hands of indiscriminate individuals who were told to just target and shoot at anything
I can’t explain it but, for some reason, I have a soft spot in my heart for Jake. Don’t know if I feel sorry for him or what.
Eschatology or Yawm al-Qiyamah. Underlings may have had instructions and preprogrammed civilian targets in the event the supreme leader was offed
I think Trump has been very strategic during both terms. And I think trade deals, tariffs, economic security, energy policy, etc. All of it. All of it, is bringing us to this critical point globally.
President Trump has determined that Iran cannot be dealt with economically, like China can be. He has been forthright for years indicating that his approach to Iran is different than for other countries.
He is respected throughout the Middle East. The bombing of strategic sites in Iran last year were just a prelude. And there was no widespread resistance across the Middle East calling for resistance against Trump. Today, same but even stronger support for Trump’s policies across the Middle East.
The operation in Venezuela set the stage for not only securing the Western hemisphere, but also in securing global oil supply that would get interrupted from this Iranian conflict. Refineries in America along the Gulf Coast will be very busy with Venezuelan crude.
The government in Ukraine has no real support from the Ukranian people, but it is being kept afloat by various globalist interests. Those globalists are on the sidelines in Iran. Trump has cast his lot with the Iranian citizenry to bring forth the next Iranian government. He is just giving them an assist that they could never do themselves.
For Trump, conquest is not the prize. Peace is the prize. You just sometimes have to get your hands dirty to get the job done.
There will be no long term U.S. troops on the ground in Iran. There will be support for the next secular government. But, that government will already have the support of the Iranian people. The first Iranian election will be a referendum on Trump and his establishing of a more democratic Iran.
MAGA