Here are the basic resources you need to dive into President Trump’s global trade and tariff reset. Topline opinion at the end of the document summaries.
♦ United States Trade Representative: 397-page detailed analysis of global trade relationships with the United States. The 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers (NTE) is the 40th report in an annual series that highlights significant foreign barriers to U.S. exports, U.S. foreign direct investment, and U.S. electronic commerce. This document is a companion piece to the President’s 2025 Trade Policy Agenda and 2024 Annual Report, published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on February 28, 2025. SEE REPORT HERE
♦ President Trump Executive Order: Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits. READ EXECUTIVE ORDER HERE:
♦ ANNEX #1 – Outlining the tariff rate per country as assigned. SEE HERE
[SOURCE]
♦ ANNEX #2: 37-pages outlining the products that are exempted from the globally specified tariffs. The tariffs generally target completed goods, finished durable goods, not necessarily the chemical components or compounds needed if we are to manufacture or build the product in the USA. Therefore Annex 2 provides the list of all products, chemicals, components and compounds that are exempt from the tariff program. [SEE EXEMPTIONS HERE]
♦ USTR Calculations for Tariff Rates – Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Tariffs work through direct reductions of imports. SEE FORMULA HERE
♦ Special Handling Status for China: China has an additional set of import duty rules and regulations that pertain to the removal of de minimis exemptions for China. These rule changes only impact China. [Additional Executive Order] CLOSING LOOPHOLES IN THE TARIFF SYSTEM: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order eliminating duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China. [De Minimis Rule Change]
One of the first things people are noticing is the depth of the targeting program. Factually, many of the countries targeted to receive reciprocal tariffs, only produce the products they manufacture as extensions of the American economy. The country itself doesn’t have the native market, industry, or expertise, etc. Corporations have exploited the cheap labor and resources in these types of countries, and they only produce [WIDGET-X] ‘to sell to us‘. We are their only customer.
For those countries, and for those with limited options of market expansion (ex. Vietnam), they have no option other than to concede to the tariff pressure and lower any import barrier as part of a free trade agreement. These less developed countries will be the first to equalize tariff and non-tariff barriers; however, even with their markets wide open they will not be able to purchase U.S. products, because they simply don’t have the money or consumer market for our expensive stuff.
Summary: The trade reset and tariff program directly target historic imbalances. If the regime is executed as currently drawn up, the 80-year-old Marshal Plan of one-way tariffs by the EU/U.K effectively comes to an end. China has special status in all of the trade considerations and has several unilateral targeting mechanisms within the trade reset that are directed specifically toward them.
This administration includes tremendously smart people who are able and willing to help America succeed. This global trading and tariff reset is the work of genius and patriotism. May the Good Lord continue to bless us!
Amen. It’s about time we looked out for ourselves a little.
Aren’t we humans clever little creatures, able to dig from the earth or harvest above (ANNEX II) so many substances that make life easier?
This is all the stuff of civilization and doubtless our newer generations have no idea of what is involved for their carefree comfort and the effort made to provide it affordably.
And Phillard, the newer generations do not need to look that far back in history to see what life would be like without the amenities they have grown accustomed to in their lives.
They only have to look to the early to mid 1800’s and the life of those crossing the plains and settling the Southwest and West.
Correct. Look around you and try to find something that is not a result of either mining or agricultural harvest. You won’t, and that is why those two actives are the basis for all real wealth. Our educational system has worked really hard at poo-pooing this idea. Thus, a lot of people have been brainwashed into thinking that things that involve mining or harvesting of trees (for example) are bad. They also think that things like building a cell phone is the basis of wealth, but it’s only based on the added value to the original products from mining or agriculture – think glass (silica, etc. mining), plastics (from mining oil), copper, steel, cellulose (trees), etc.
This why we need to get back to these basic activities to increase the wealth of Americans, which is DJT’s goal.
If things work as they should without interruption then the United States of America will experience a gold rush.
A gold rush of an un-hobbled economy. No one now alive has experience of a free nation’s economic advantage. There is no other nation on earth that has this advantage of individual independence. Let the other nations shed their bonds and shackles of socialism and join the free world.
Well put. Thank you.
You have three years before the democrat communists put a push on to try and reverse any progress made. A Vance presidency may just keep the positive moves going.
Go f—k yourself Rand Paul.and the people who support you too.
You good for nothin puppet.
Rand is pissed that Doge has deemed his annual Festivus Report on Government Waste as a wasted duplicate effort.
Yes, now Rand has nothing to hang his hat on; he was always the one to make sure we knew that he knew about the fraud, waste, and abuse that they all knew about, however, Rand made sure to never actually do anything about it- and doing something doesn’t mean he will get results it does however demonstrate it’s more than just a show.
Exactly, Rand Paul is a big talker who never does anything. Fauci is still walking around free with millions of our dollars. His wife just got fired, big deal, they have millions and millions of our tax dollars play with.
Rand Paul has a copy of Fauci’s gain of function directive on his desk .
It was provided to him courtesy of Dr. David Martin.
Despite this evidence, he refuses to move to prosecute Fauci let alone publicly acknowledge that he has it.
Unfortunately Rand Paul, like many others in Congress are all talk. They are in place to restrict information to the public.
Rand Paul just went full Romney……….never go full Romney.
Who’s the Constitutional conservative now Mr Paul?
What fiscally sound, uncorrupted politician would be against this?!
Thanks God for giving P Trump and his cabinet and advisors the strength of Joshua, the courage of David when he went up against Goliath, and the wisdom You gave Daniel and Solomon.
Thank You for giving P Trump strong legs and the surefootedness of a mountain goat.
Father if any around P Trump are corrupt then pluck them out and keep them far away from our government.
Thank You Father for ripping out all the corrupt judges and lawyers that would come against MAGA and MAHA. Hold them and all the corrupt ones accountable…let them have to pay a price…but like Chuck Colson, let them find you in the end.
Thank You Father, in Jesus name thank You.
AMEN!!
“What fiscally sound, uncorrupted politician would be against this?!”
None.
Amen !
Technical question about formula: elasticity is always determined by the representation of the numeral “1”, i.e., 1 is stable, , <1 is inelastic, and >1 is elastic. Unclear about use of the zero. Otherwise, useful information as always.
Good point BM.
The whole term in the denominator (bottom part of the division) is a product – a compound number resulting from multiplication. If the epsilon term tends to one, this just means the denominator becomes just phi*m_i (1*phi*m_i = phi*m_i), but if on the other hand epsilon tends to zero then the entire rest of the denominator gets canceled (0*phi*m_i = 0) and, worse yet, you now have a ‘divide by zero’ error and the entire equation is then ‘undefined’…
…- Shurely shome mishtake?…
Thanks for the further clarification. The use of the zero made no sense to me.
Better late than never. The giant sucking sound started over 30 years ago and the politicians sold the USA out for the trillions. We are hearing the big mad now, dismiss the noise.
Ross Perot was way ahead of his time.
A true visionary .
The electorate just wasn’t ready to hear what he had to say.
Myself included.
I hope he’s smiling.
May he Rest In Peace.
I wish I had voted for him back then.
I voted for Ross. Loved his charts and the facts he exposed.
Don’t worry about not voting for him. Deep State would have killed his daughter first, then him to stop him. Strong evidence to suggest they made that threat and why he pulled out of the race.
I remember he was accused of being a crazy eccentric.
The press made him too look like a lunatic.
Lesson to be learned , when political opposition including smarmy establishment RINOS and the propaganda media claim that a self made billionaire is a incompetent wack job rememberer to look for the puppeteer strings.
Trump and Musk DOGE and MOST of Trumps cabinet are cases in point.
I voted for him & in 2009, met him in Washington, DC.
This trade reset doesn’t create doom—it creates discipline.
What we’re seeing isn’t a reckless trade war. It’s a strategic recalibration targeting the structural imbalances that hollowed out American industry. The tariffs are reciprocal, calculated based on actual trade deficits. That’s not random or punitive—it’s mathematically fair.
And they’re targeted: this isn’t a broad tax on everything. The focus is on finished goods, not the raw materials and components we need to build here. That protects domestic production and supply chains—not disrupts them.
Some worry this will destabilize capital markets. But this plan doesn’t touch interest rates, credit channels, or core financial plumbing. It doesn’t burden U.S. manufacturers or trigger input price spirals. Quite the opposite—it creates revenue and predictability, two things capital markets thrive on.
It also closes loopholes like de minimis, reins in corporate arbitrage, and forces trading partners to play fair. If that creates discomfort for companies built on outsourcing and imbalance, that’s not doom. That’s a long-overdue correction.
This isn’t the collapse of global trade. It’s the end of surrender and the beginning of mutual accountability.
Well said
Thanks. I learned most of the ideas here at the Treehouse. Keep teaching. 🤝
Awesome!
BTW, I clicked the comment flag by accident and can’t seem to clear it. Only reason to flag this is to highlight its great insight. And Sundance already did that
“Accountability” has been a trendy, meaningless, feel-good word used by politicians for years. It is great to see the word actually used in an impactful and meaningful way. And it’s so appropriate that you conclude your post with “accountability”.
More importantly, this tariff schedule shows how the American Taxpayer has been funding the governments of these countries, the global corporations that benefit from them and the treasonous US “Respresentatives” that pushed through the legislation that put it in place.
I live in Canada and have family on both sides of the 49th. This was needed for a long time and I hope it cleans up a lot of business nonsense. Canadians embarrass me at times with their lack of understanding of what has been happening not just in America but their own damn country. They have been fleeced by generation after generation of liberal politicians and don’t seem to give a damn. Canada has never lost or faltered as a result of U S policy that was not socialist in nature. Better to ride the U S coattails as opposed to being controlled by China, and China is pushing for control in Canada. I think President Trump must realize this.
*Sane* capital markets thrive on those things. The extent of the markets’ collective freak-out over the last 48-odd hours (as I type this on 4/4/25) shows you just how insanely unhinged and divorced from reality they are:..
…- Casino gambling with conjured-out-of-thin-air, debt-based fiat Monopoly money (derivatives betting and sundry other fraudulent chicanery, never-ending stock buybacks, etc.) Vs *Actual* honestly-earned revenue;
…-
‘Trading’Betting on VOL (VIX futures) and arbitraging geographic differentials in production costs (labour/materials, etc.) that lead to outcomes like the Rust Belt or the Congo’s ‘coltan wars’ or Foxconn’s suicide camps Vs socioeconomically stable predictability.No wonder Apple was one of the Corps most severely hit… – The freakout is a collective hissy-fit due to the tariffs/trade rebalancing signalling that the punch bowl is about to be taken away…
With hope ‘ternally
Springing amidst We The People
PDJT leads.
Haiku of Hope for America
April 3, 2025
If X minus M is 0….Balanced trade, the Delta T will be Zero.
If China had 1/2 a brain, they should honor the prior deal with Trump and buy TONs of Corn, Soybeans, and anything else we grow. They should also buy oil and gas from us. They should buy coal from us.
Trade helps prevent war if it is a two way trade.
As long as China is ruled by rabid Communists, they cannot play nice with the newly invigorated USA. The centerpiece goal of the CCP is to annihilate or enslave Americans. As the MAGA spirit, what once was called patriotism, continues to spread in the USA, the Chicoms will begin folding their tents here and concentrate on less resistant targets.
If China does have half a brain, chances are they stole it.
It seems that China is broke.
The end of human capital arbitrage? Maybe.
For situational awareness, this emailed by Tim Kaine to VA residents yesterday.
Dear friend,
I know a lot of hardworking folks’ wallets have been squeezed lately, and Trump’s new taxes threaten to make the problem worse.
Trump’s new taxes on goods from Canada—Virginia’s largest trading partner and one of the U.S.’ closest allies—would raise costs for families on everything from housing to groceries to cars. That’s ridiculous, and unaffordable for many families.
These new tariffs would also hurt Virginia businesses by disrupting supply chains and raising the cost of imported goods. That means some businesses may have to shut their doors or resort to layoffs to stay afloat, damaging our long-term economic growth.
I’m even more frustrated that these impending raised costs are all to help pay for Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires.
That’s why I’m forcing a vote on my legislation that would stop these new taxes and reverse Trump’s disastrous economic policies. Every single one of my colleagues in the Senate will have to go on the record and demonstrate if they are more interested in standing up for their constituents or in helping pave the way for Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires.
Read more about my legislation here >>>
I’m glad to have the support of many of my colleagues in the Senate, industry leaders, and Virginia small businesses that would also be hurt by Trump’s tariffs on Canada.
Virginians, I’m proud to stand up for you.
I look forward to keeping in touch and hearing about the issues that matter most to you. If you or a loved one needs help with a federal agency, please reach out to a member of my staff here. If you’d like to receive updates on my work in the U.S. Senate, sign up here to receive my newsletters and follow me on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Bluesky.
Sincerely,
Auto Pen signature ??
No idea.
I lived in VA at one time; hence, I still track politics there.
Lotta “will”, “would”, “impending”….in that post of old themes – in short, the idea woodshed is still empty; the MO remains scaring the populace.
In my own mind, I think the long-term consequences of all of the tariff moves is uncertain. The effort/case to rectify unfair practices (i.e., trade is not being conducted in free markets so throwing out all the analysis based on that concept structure is valid) can’t be contested.
I know my portfolio is taking some hits this morning. Since my investing strategy is long-term, asymmetric (and I created a 10% gold counterbalance over a year ago) I’m riding this out patiently. That said, there are wealth effects associated with all of this that bear watching.
Get the fast track tax cuts done – yesterday!
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Dim Kane the City of Richmond Mayor then Governor of Virginia. Back in the day the Mayor of Richmond had little power, just a figurehead. City council the pack of fools held all the power. He then went on the be the Governor of Virginia. Shows up and somehow VDOT lost a $billion (could not find the missing money) and they just had to shut down the rest areas on all the major interstates to fix the budget deficits. How is that for a commie fool? The one thing a state can offer to the public and visitors they could not figure out how to fix the budget so they do one of the stupidest things that hurts the public. Then all of a sudden they found the $billion.
How does such a lowly fool become such a puppet? 2020 the most honest election in American history…. Sarc…
Dim, don’t give me lectures about finances and business. You are a silver spoon blue blooded Virginian fool that has been pampered all your life with soft government jobs.
He is a tool…and a fool. Dual hatted!
Where has little Timmy been for the last four years?
One can only hope Virginians finally see the light and toss Warner & Kaine out for someone(s)/anyone(s) better.
I left VA several years ago because of the politics.
Maybe gov’t sinecure shedding in DMV region will have an impact next go-around.
He forgot to scream whoohaaaaaa !
Cue “The sky is falling, the sky is falling” (Chicken Little) in 3, 2, 1…
The “61%” tariff from Switzerland is totally made up and baloney. The Swiss tariff on industrial goods is precisely 0%, the VAT is 8.1% (half the minimum requirement in the EU) and there are no other barriers. Only agricultural goods are taxed and they make up a tiny proportion of US exports to Switzerland. The only political “manipulation” is the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank, which is a matter of economic survival for the country and partly a consequence of US deficit spending (which lowers the value of the US dollar vs the Swiss franc, hurting Swiss exports). Also, Switzerland is not and has never been a beneficiary of the Marshall Plan and the wages are among the highest in the world. There’s simply no good argument for the extremely high tariff imposed on Switzerland (higher than for the EU, which has far more aggressive trade policies!). I hope this will be corrected after thorough (re-)examination.
Cry me a river.
Read the report. The Swiss have many significant trade barriers, especially in agriculture. Also barriers to importing in general.
It’s not just about a tariff rate per se, but about actual access to the market. Say what you will, if you read the report, this is incredibly well thought out, with data and facts supporting the reciprocal tariff.
This is similar to Vietnam’s treatment, they have low rates, but other quotas and policies make it nearly impossible to sell into their markets. Their adjusted rate to us is 90%, and their new tariff rate into the US is 46%. Vietnam already was working to reduce many of their barriers as of March 26th, and probably will act much faster now.
The retail world is freaking out over the Vietnam situation because many Chinese producers moved to Vietnam during the first Trump administration. It will be interesting to see how these countries respond.
Did a quick look at the exemptions, vitamins & minerals, Co-Q 10, amino acids, human blood, insulin, antibiotics, aspirin, antidepressants, cocaine, lysergic acid, hormones, human & animal vaccines, gold, silver, rare earths/minerals, metals, latex, all types of wood products (coniferous/deciduous), bamboo, dyes & pigments, electronic circuits, and a bunch of chemicals, & petroleum products of all types.
To me, a surprising list.
I am hoping that Trump looks into and ends the corrupt deal the Clintons made between Haiti and the USG for the owners of their high end clothing lines including Levis and Polo. They are allowed to use Haitians as slave labor and their goods are moved into the US market duty free..
I am certain the Clintons are making money hand over fist from that deal.
what a wide and disparate array of rates. seems like an invitation to corruption. as well, smoot hawley is not a good precedent.
we shall see. interesting times.
Does this increase the price of prescription drugs that are only made outside the US? i.e. buying ivermectin from India.
12/16/1773 + 4/2/2025 = 100% https://515loupe.wordpress.com/
It is too bad Trump can not stay president forever.
Who knows what the next president will do.
Reverse everything Trump has done re trade, border security and all the other things?
I have thought the same as you, but I’ve wondered about one thing. These tariffs are going to bring in a tremendous amount of revenue which will hopefully help close the deficit and reduce the federal debt (wishful thinking, I know). If there’s one thing Democrats love, it’s revenue sources. It seems like they would hate to give that up. Unfortunately, they’ll be likely to squander it all the wrong areas. I don’t even want to think about it.
So the next step should be getting rid of the Federal Reserve.
Hartwell on Bannon said the Federal Reserve will now print money to keep the middle class from realizing the downward pressure on prices. Time for Trump to get rid of them.
The Marshall Plan is finally dead. God Bless America.
It’s a very interesting chart listing the various tariffs charged by country, but I wish President Trump would show a graph of our overall trade deficits. I think in the late 1990’s it was under $200B total and today’s deficit totals about
$1T, I think. Also other graphs showing the major contributors to the $T, like China, EU, Mexico, etc.
Then, I think a strong argument is that this is wrong and not sustainable and we have to address this issue. All we want is fair trade…..
Anyway, I think the trade deficit numbers, graphically shown, can help make the argument more understandable.
I take the liberty to draw your attention to an X thread where I reason the issue of the tariffs against Rand Paul (regretfully) and in the context of the current market action:
https://x.com/altnimeni/status/1907726079403397608
Thank you.
N.B. Congratulations on your excellent analyses and commentary.
WTF – this post has been up all day and has fewer than 100 responses?
Hi-jacked Thread
Watch the do nothing congress critters try to get in on the tariffs. They stood by for many years and watched this country suffer from tariffs. Watch the rinos and dinos start to muscle into the game. They are all funning scared that the gravy train is stopping. Their benefactors will be running out of the easy money themselves. May they all go broke and lose everything they have taken from us.
running scared Sorry, had a teenage moment there.
MAGA Fabulous!!