Imports are plummeting… should be a good thing… trade imbalance shrinks…. that lifts GDP calculations…. but the problem is…
…. Consumer Demand Has Collapsed.
The state of the U.S. economy is not as difficult as the ‘experts’ always claim. Simple business and checkbook economics always, always, tell you the future. You just have to be willing to accept things as they are, not as you would wish them to be. Let’s have an honest chat. We need it.
Remember, it was November 2021, and no one was paying attention but retail hiring was negative. The month before the 2021 Christmas holiday, when historically businesses would be adding people to their payrolls to support the increase in shopping, and retail businesses did no hiring. In fact, 20,000 retail jobs were LOST the month before Christmas. Retail sales had plummeted. That was a major flare, no one paid attention. Everyone was distracted with the Supply Chain crisis.
Then the fourth quarter 2021 GDP result came in at 6.9%, massively higher than the visible reality on Main Street. The reasoning was identified as a major increase in the value of inventories. While the Biden administration liked the GDP figure, the existence of the unsold inventory was another major flare. Add unsold inventory units to the massive inflationary value of those units (+8%) and you quickly see the +6.9% was bad news, not good news. Major increases in the value of goods have no value unless people are purchasing them. It wasn’t happening. Again, no one (except us) was paying attention.
Then the first quarter of 2022 GDP result came back with a negative 1.6% result. With high inflation those inventories were stagnant. The eight-percentage point GDP swing from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 was another warning flare. Again, no one was truly paying attention. Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- had been in a contracting position since June of 2021, when the stimulus ran out. However, skyrocketing inflation was hiding lower unit sales.
With inventories stagnant, purchase orders to manufacturers stopped. Orders for non-durable consumer goods dropped.
Due to lengthy supply chains, including trans-pacific shipments, the process to stop deliveries in the electronic goods sector takes around 90-days before the drop in retail sales reaches the manufacturer to stop production. Here is the announcement from Samsung: “Samsung Electronics is temporarily halting new procurement orders and asking multiple suppliers to delay or reduce shipments of components and parts for several weeks due to swelling inventories and global inflation concerns, sources have told Nikkei Asia.”
Pay attention to the dates. Prices were dropping because consumers were not spending:
If the USA economy was really in the shape that appeared statistically, you would see it on Main Street. We did see it on Main Street. Consumer purchases of non-essential goods had stalled and contracted. Everyone was paying more for food, energy, housing and fuel. There was/is no room in the household budget to spend on non-essential purchases. People are hunkering down. That was very visible.
When the U.S. consumer stops purchasing goods, the overseas suppliers of those goods need to stop manufacturing and sending them here. As a result, if the economy was in really bad shape, we would expect that imports would drop dramatically. This drop in imports would obviously impact the trade deficit. Well….
WASHINGTON, July 27 (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in June as exports surged, while business spending on equipment remained strong, reducing the risk that the economy contracted again in the second quarter.
The better-than-expected reports from the Commerce Department on Wednesday left economists scrambling to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for the last quarter, which had ranged from negative to barely growing. The data were published ahead of the release on Thursday of the advance second-quarter GDP estimate.
[…] The goods trade deficit shrank 5.6% to $98.2 billion, the smallest since last November. Goods exports increased $4.4 billion to $181.5 billion. There were strong gains in exports of food and industrial goods. But fewer capital and consumer goods as well as motor vehicles and parts were exported.
Imports of goods fell $1.5 billion to $279.7 billion. They were pulled down by imports of motor vehicles and food.
[…] The Commerce Department also reported on Wednesday that wholesale inventories increased 1.9% in June, while stocks at retailers rose 2.0%. Retail inventories were boosted by a 3.1% jump in motor vehicle stocks. Excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories increased 1.6%. This component goes into the calculation of GDP.
And here comes the kicker….
[…] According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 0.5% annualized rate in the second quarter. The survey was conducted before Wednesday’s data. The economy contracted at a 1.6% pace in the first quarter. Investors have been nervous about another negative quarterly GDP reading, which would mean a technical recession. (read more)
Does that 0.5% look familiar? It should.
From CTH in June: “We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.” … “CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession. The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.”
From CTH in July: “CTH has predicted the people within the BEA research group, ie those who make the determinations of GDP, will circle the statistical wagons and generate something akin to a positive 0.5% GDP figure for Q2.“
Three other factors also impact the import data. (1) Operation hide the ships continues (CA regulation issue). (2) There is an ongoing labor dispute with the west coast longshoreman union, and shippers trying to avoid issues are rerouting to Gulf of Mexico and East coast. And (3) There is an ongoing independent truckers strike and protest happening at California ports. All of these provide convenient justifications for lower port data, which, conveniently for the Biden administration, inflates GDP.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is likely to attribute a 0.5% calculation of GDP (release tomorrow) to the lowering of imports (a deduction to GDP) and then apply a liberal dose of inflation to the value of goods and services created by the economy.
A +0.5% BEA result avoids the pesky technical definition of a recession.
Frauds, scammers, conmen all. If, as CTH predicts, it’s a positive print then it will be quietly ‘revised’ downward when no one is looking. What a bunch of poltroons and conmen…
Always quietly revised downward for Obummer and the Potatoe. Even more quietly revised upward for President Trump. Every time.
As Mark Twain may have said, there are “lies, damn lies, and statistics”. In the off chance that Trump gets back in power, the BEA is one of the organizations that should be dismantled (we could do without it’s *sage* advice for a few years) and rebuilt from the ground up. It shouldn’t be political.
thank you. I am serious when I say that at least a 50% reduction in the civil service and those people should be given the opportunity to earn their pension by cleaning the roadsides so as to save the taxpayers at least a portion of what they have absconded with .
I honestly think they could cut it by 75-80% and no one would notice a thing.
More freedom.
EPA did that during the last government shut down. Over half their employees furloughed as non-essential. Nobody noticed; not like the air and water were suddenly polluted.
Big drop in pornhub views would be one result.
Look to the intent of the Founders; Fed govt has VERY limited role, that was their intent.
Almost all the things they have encroached on, are State responsibilities.
But, DC isn’t going to willingly constrict its power, any more than it is going to volontarily cut its allowance.
State Governments CAN restrict the power of the Fed, by challenging Federal overreach.
This way, as PDJT is cutting it down to size “from the top down”, State governments can cut down Feds power, “from the bottom up”.
While it would be great to have multiple MAGA dominant State Governments, it only takes ONE to champion States rights in court.
I agree, and one of the great pieces of evidence that things are so far out of control is the mere extent of “federal law.” Why should there be so much federal law? The only federal law that should exist is that which relates to the very limited authority that was granted to the federal government. If we still abided by the Constitution, Federal law would be miniscule and insignificant. But we know that’s not the case, and that federal law now extends into areas it was never intended to reach.
My own theory about why this state exists has to do with the unwilingness of those who have been elected to restrain the urge to exercise the power they have been given. On the contrary, most of these people get to Washington determined to wield as much power as they can. As a result, we get federal laws encroaching into areas where they do not belong. Under a healthy state of affairs, legislative activity in the states should far exceed that in the Congress, where there should be minimal activity.
Two observations from the Reagan era: Most people remember his quote that a government bureacracy is the nearest thing to eternal life that we’ll ever see on this planet, and the other is the revelation that was observed after he fired the flight controllers: After they had been out for a while, it was discovered that they never needed 70% of them in the first place!
Just get rid of civil service pensions. They should not live high on the hog on the backs of taxpayers who work until they die.
A federal pension is 40% of the average of your last 5 years salary – it used to be even better. Do the math: I know dozens of feds and only 1 or 2 makes less than 140k a year. So, 40% of say 150k is 60k a year pension with an annual COLA.
They also retire in their mid-50s
Most Americans have no pension, work well into their 60s and have a median income of 44,225 while working FT.
So a fed makes more sitting on their ass than the average taxpayer does working.
Well be working till early 70’s
There’s plenty of 70’s and older working at Home Depot!
And the over 70’s at Home Depot are the only ones who know anything!
So True!
After nearly 40 years of self-employment, I’d opine no employer in their right mind would ever hire me and I’d fully support them in that decision. Too militant, too disrespectful of authority, with a lifetime hatred of corporations.
I’d rather live in a hut in the forest than play that game again. Actually, I’m doing that, heh. And no, my name isn’t Ted. He’s in jail.
Choice is what makes America great. I applaud those who choose to work until literally the day they die, or retire in their 30’s. Good on ’em.
That’s what we’re tasked with, fighting for the freedom to choose. However, I’d temper that with cognizance of what being a slave to the machine is. Fully understood, that’s a healthy choice.
Sundance’s treatise of data like presented here forms up the contours of what that machine is. Good information.
My husband is at work right now and he is 72.
My husband worked his arse off until he died at 64 and never collected SSI. Someone else will.
You are still assuming that SSI remains available.
Federal pensions will quit at the same time that SS dies.
Not true for Federal Employees under FERS (which is most of the current federal work force).
The formula is:
FERS annuities are based on high-3 average pay. Generally, the benefit is calculated as 1 percent of high-3 average pay multiplied by years of creditable service. For those retiring at age 62 or later with at least 20 years of service, a factor of 1.1 percent is used rather than 1 percent.
One percentage point is added for periods of two months or longer than the employee was separated due to disability.
Full months beyond the last full year are credited proportionately. Note: While unused sick leave cannot be counted toward the high-3 years of average salary or for establishing eligibility for retirement, it is used in the calculation as time actually served.
FERS employees retiring with less than 20 years of service and before attaining age 60 will have their annuities reduced by 5 percent for every year they are under age 62. However, that reduction will be waived if the employing agency provides an opportunity to retire early.
Example 1:
Age: Minimum Retirement Age*
High-3: $60,000
Service: 30 years
.01 x 30 x $60,000 = $18,000 (30% of high-3)
Not Civil Service if hired after 1984 but if you’re a USPS employee with 30 years of service you’re looking at about a $21k/yr pension before taxes and health insurance premiums.
We work for the civil service of cleaning roadsides. Our men have been reduced to half through retirement and there are no plans to hire. How do you remove snow from both sides of 125 miles of road with just 6 men? You can’t. Tough times are already here.
The vast majority of federal employees are paper pushers and middle managers that have no tangible value .
They create a need to fill, they are no more than an obstruction to wealth and freedom. Government is a con mans greatest pinnacle, to get us to pay them to work to pay them.
Any one of those stops, the guns will come out.
Why does law enforcement go after criminals, because it cuts them out of their own game. When they pay like Biden and Hillary, they walk free.
They are called non essential employees.
Nonessential. Oh! Like the local barber and restaurant and mom-n-pop stores? Got it. COVID leveled all fields. Only hospirals and multinational box stores are essential now.
^^^^^THIS^^^^^
“Last edited 2 hours ago by BeAChooser”
Is that a joke? Is there some secret edit button I don’t know about? This website could really use a comment edit feature.
That was Benjamin Disraeli, PM (Conservative-Tory Party) for Great Britain during the reign of Queen Victoria.
Thank you Sundance analysis like this is just one of the many reasons I pull up a branch hear every day
Looks like you called in advance.
Thanks for cluing us in.
Who’s on First…..What’s on Second…..IDK…..Inflations Great! (jk)
Thanks SD!
They can claim whatver they want, say whatever they want. Tell us what
we see and feel isn;t real.. But that is the problem.. We feel the pain the high
prices at the pump. at the grocery store, everywhere..so they can
play whatever game they want it doesn;t change what is actually happening
on the ground, everyday..to everyone…what they tell us doesn;t match the
reality..
they don’t care.
these numbers (officially fudged) serve only one purpose:
the credit rating for the USG.
foreign sales of treasures would trail off very rapidly if the numbers were accurate.
the USG is engaged in a type of financial fraud.
no one cares, because every is doing this..this manipulating the “data”…it’s a feature n0t a bug.
Pro tip: if you want to see what the big money is doing, notice the top 50 hedge funds in the world and where they are chasing opportunity. (yes there are actually still some good trading..mostly shorting major indexes and specifically big corp stock. The futures indexes also tell a story. Compare this to just 30 months ago. We are effectively in retrograde. where bears rule.
God Bless America
real traders understand and accept the official data of the USG and all other western economic centers, are
…are unreliable, but also easy to digest and make good trading decisions.
the wealthy will continue to do very well in this volatile market with a corrupt USG and fed being deliberately screwy with monetary policy, coupled with an inept congress that can’t and will not produce effective policy and directed funding to avert the catastrophe that joe malarkey’s regime has engaged in.
They will continue to enjoy the opportunity also to get very wealthy with these green deal spending extravaganza’s
The uber rich in New York and Los Angeles NEVER suffer. You suffer. Your friends suffer. Everyone but them suffers.
I paid $12 for A POUND of lunch meat today. They stopped putting the prices on the deli board. No joke.
Gosh, I sure hate it when you are right on the number even!
In April one local home builder was working on 75 spec homes.
In May they were working on 10 spec homes.
ZERO SPEC HOMES are under construction in July.
One home builder a few months back required a $50,000 NON-refundable down payment to start a home valued at $750,000.
Interest rates soared and now those who had qualified for a $750,000 home, now only qualify for a $500,000 (same monthly payment)
The builder….gave those customers BACK their money….there were many people stuck in this situation. Good people still exist.
I’m pretty well screwed on this then for lack of cash on hand. Lack of reasonably priced housing is a major issue near my work place.
Guess my future is in a tent.
When politicians fail to do their job they should be forced to live in a tent for a few years with government massively cutting back on salaries and spending.
Tents are underrated. More of an exigent issue is the dirt they’re pitched on.
As an old Russian millionaire once told me, son, buy dirt they’re not making any more of it. He made most of his millions in dirt and hauling garbage. I’ve no such aspirations but it is nice to have some trees and a creek to pitch the tent next to.
Grey man.
I lived in a tent for a few months between houses. It’s OK.
Soared? I’m afraid we are no where near where the peak rates. Look at the early 90s 13%
When I bought my first house the fixed rate 30 year was right at 18%. I got a then new LIBOR ARM for 12% with 10% down.
One thing I’m watching is loan rates v savings rates. Back during Carter, yes, loan rates were to the moon but savings rates were high too. One more sign of financial chicanery to watch for. No dog in the fight since no cash in financial institutions but hundreds of millions of Americans do participate so it matters.
I bought a house in 1988 for 17%. A DUMP we had to renovate that cost us 1-1/2 paychecks a month.
Although donations are down in a few geographic areas, thrift and second hand stores are filled with new customers. This is how consumers are using their shrinking paychecks. In the meantime new stuff remains on the shelves unsold.
the “cold” inventory for electronics is about 40 percent that is over two years old.
chip manufacturing stimulus to anticipate that many suppliers and big customers are going to fail financially.
IF (big if) the half a billion dollars of USG funding has any chances of success, it will be to make the investments into ARM based architecture. It’s cheaper, more secure, more efficient and many more applications. But of course the USG will somehow eff this up too.
God Bless America
Yesterday or the day before I posted that the Goodwill in my small south Georgia town is going out of business…one treeper thought it might be because of reduced donations due to people not shopping and keeping their current stuff. Not sure, but it is weird.
many of these are run by non for profits and received sizable USG “PPP” and other zero interest loan grants. Now that money has vanished and is spent, many of these organizations that operate on very thin margins cannot any longer afford to continue.
the stimulus money has that effect too. It’s investing in failed business and that only delays the inevitable.
goodwill, carehelp, etc…many of these great stores for the low income families in my area were “adopted” by our local churches. Same place, same name. Different financial sponsors. It’s a very good way to offset taxable exposure and also keep the places open. But it still have to sell (at a discount) at least close to break even.
We will see more of these kinds of stores getting hit hard. It’s ironic, tragically, these kinds of businesses are so fragile, given the social pluses they do serve.
God Bless America
I am selling my house and wanted to donate excess furniture to charity as I am downsizing. Every charity I called (Goodwill included) said they were full up and had no room for additional furniture – American Cancer Society, Red Cross, Amvets, – only one (Salvation Army) would think about it – they could pick up in October. I had to hire someone to haul it away. Never seen this before – quite surprising as we have donated throughout the years and never had any problem giving things away.
The only thing I’ve had any luck selling lately, of all things, is bricks. I had thousands of them; only a few hundred remain. What’s wierd is the price isn’t that much less than box store bricks, maybe 60% of retail, but people have driven from a couple hundred miles away for bricks.
Expensive raw materials for manufacturing and precision instruments and machine tool parts and equipment, even offered at a few cents on the dollar, zippo. Nary an inquiry, for months.
I have a thrift store in an outbuilding in Oregon. Someday I’ll unpack it and try selling stuff. Something to do in old age.
“The only thing I’ve had any luck selling lately, of all things, is bricks.”
Hope you aren’t unwittingly selling them to Antifa or BLM or the FBI. 😉
Put it out to the curb and mark it free. It’ll all be gone in 48 hours.
Yes everything I put on the curb went the same night. I am all on my own and couldn’t move all that furniture outside myself unfortunately.
Fed Chairman Powell joins the O’biden regime and the MSM cheer team to say there is no recession. Everything is fine folks, trust their word.
Their world is made up of out and out lies. Everything is NOT fine for us ordinary people. My recently deceased husband used to rent his office space from a guy who owned a building across town and had available units. That guy, not my husband’s struggling business, received a PPP check of over $500,000 and used it to buy a travel trailer and a beautiful speedboat. He didn’t, evidently, have to account for how that money was spent. Whose idea was THAT, anyway? Which gubmint official had the brainfart that produced nonsense like giving money away to businesses and to every stinkin’ immigrant who comes across the border illegally?
And now, according to the latest news, that river those illegals had to cross to get into America (which I said they should fill with alligators and snakes, etc) is drying up, so these people are now just walking across, no problem. No check-in stations, no registration having to do with covid shots or anything, just walk in and sell your drugs and make MORE money. Someone in the upper realm of gubmint needs to swing for this. It’s all illegal, isn’t it??
What effect does Bidoon selling off our SPR overseas have on trade balance?
We’re eating our seed corn
we know
they are not fooling anyone except those part of the cult
we have the knowledge
we now need organization and leaders to emerge or..
What wool they pull (would they say) when quarter is revised down and next quarter is negative 5%
the revision down of Q2 will be just enough to enable Q3 to be at that + 0 to .5 positive
Oh yes, this “administration” is going to make everything look just hukey-dorey for the majority (which is, or used to be called, the Middle Class) when in reality, we are literally disappearing from the scene. People like me who live on fixed incomes are going to feel the pinch worst of all – – and SOON, no matter how much lipstick the dimwit dems try to put on THAT pig.
Sounds like Nazi Nannzi is out starting next session. Yipppeee, I can almost think of no better news today!!
The sad part it will eat up many small businesses in the short term in the long term it needs eat the big box stores, Shutdown half or more of all Walmart super stores, 20,000 or more fast food joints, break Amazon into regional operators like Ma-Bell.
And you would see Main Street flourish again.
Silicon Valley pirates returns the product to the people as most was developed by DARPA, our tax dollars and the trillions of dollars dispersed amongst the people who subsidized these pirates.
The entire system is a fraud set up by a handful of people to enrich themselves over our dead bodies. Since these jerks (WEF) are so into pain, they should feel some. Take the 10’s of trillions of dollars they’ve extorted from mankind and pass it around.
Slaves no more!
I agree, most of the big box stores are supplied directly from China anyway. I ordered a small item from walmart (I NEVER shop at walmart if i can help it) and even though we have one store or more right here in town, my “merchandise” came 2 1/2 weeks later – from China. It’s disgusting the way these things are advertised as being sold “locally”. That’s it for me, no more ordering from online stores because I would imagine a lot of the big box stores are doing the same thing. Thanks to joe obiden and his son, China now OWNS us. Wait until we’re all doing the chinese march, not long now. But you can bet none of our politicians will be kissing their boots. I’m not ready to eat grasshoppers just yet, are you? That’s the plan, however, from the o’bidens to the public.
Boats, atv’s, RVs, 2nd vehicles are flooding my small town marketplace… once the lay-offs hit (already announced) in December & January it’s going to be a free for all type of situation.
I plan on snagging a wakeboard boat.
I need a high powered ATV to return my serotonin and dopamine levels to near pre- joetato levels, even if the effects are short lived..
😂
I get the second hand smoke effect from them operating on the dunes and find hiking the dune roads to be quite invigorating without spending thousands on buggy tech.
They are fun to fix though. Not much different than building race cars, something I did in the past.
I have noticed seeing less of the Commies from Portland and Salem who blast into their vacation homes on the weekends. Now, even holidays go by and it’s deathly quiet. Once in awhile I’ll hear a Jake brake on a logging truck but else it’s the wind in the trees.
The locals rent out ATV’s by the hour or day. Nice, relatively inexpensive way to get that rush. Enjoy!
You aren’t kidding about the “fix” issue.
This IS the great reset. To “reset” there must be a collapse.
The only thing that can’t collapse is the stock market. It must remain propped up.
Those in New York and Los Angeles NEVER suffer. You suffer. Your friends suffer. Everyone but them suffers.
Are the weapons and money they are sending to Ukraine considered an export?
The second to last paragraph says a lot.
And all those ships hanging out at the anchorage…what are they full of? Durable goods, no doubt.
Durable goods whose usable life IMO is rapidly expiring due to time and the adverse conditions. Container ship stuff isn’t designed to be left at sea for months.
I guess the Great Reset is worth it to those seeking the destruction of Main Street. What I think of is the workers who slaved over stuff that ends up at the bottom of the ocean or rotting away in a port or pile somewhere. What a waste of time, health and being away from loved ones, all for the game.
The real question I have is what happens to the dollar prices of everything in the US in 2023 and beyond?
Does everything go up in price?
Or does some go up (fuel) and some go down (cars, house prices)?
Price of New cars? Up or down?
Used cars?
New Electronics (TVs, phones)?
New House?
Existing Houses?
Rent?
Furniture?
Food?
Fuel?
Skilled Labor?
Unskilled Labor?
Lumber?
US Treasuries?
Municipal bonds?
Will consumer demand destruction cause liquidation of some inventories at lower prices?
Does everything go up in price because the Fed will eventually monetize the losses?
Or do they let the debt collapse and interest rates rise so that their Luciferian companies (Goldman, Blackrock) can buy everything valuable up for pennies on the dollar?
What happens to gold and silver, given that the metal derivative markets are still so heavily manipulated by JPM and others?
one thing to keep in mind…..if one cannot sell something for a reasonable amount above cost, it won’t be made or the service will not be performed
there will be a one time liquidation and then the too-high-of-cost product / service simply won’t be available anymore.
Yes, and unlike the last crash, the incidence of destruction will rise. I saw a fair amount of it during the last crash, durable assets repossessed or foreclosed on that were destroyed by their owners. Man, the pictures I took. Nasty.
That was a picnic compared to what’s coming IMO. Then it was only property. This time it’ll be people. The enemy exceeded the acceptable amount of corruption, avarice and mendacity.
most everything goes down in price
I am waiting to gut and remodel my kitchen when the recession hits good and
people are clamoring for business – might save upwards of 30%
I don’t know about US treasuries, municipal bonds, gold, etc.
Demand drops, prices drop. Many companies will get to a point where they just want some sort of cash back for those goods so they will hold clearance sales. You will be able to get a lot of good deals for products that are probably a year old at that point, but so what, if they are unused they are still new.
At some point there will be a fire sale for many businesses. After that, those businesses will go under and there will be a major shortage on disposable and recreational goods. So snag up what you can when you can. But wait for the collapse. In regards to necessities such as food, well, I hope you’ve been stocking up on non perishables already. Playing catch up is going to be difficult for many folks.
My wife has thought I was over reacting the last couple years since Nov 2020. I began stocking at a much faster rate then my normal excess prepping. We will be fine when TSHTF. Remember, you just need to whether the first 90-120 days. Most people will have been culled and only the intelligent and prepared folks will be remaining. Remaining in what type of world, that remains to be seen.
But won’t all this fudging of numbers get trued-up at some point and show a negative GDP for Q2 to match the negative 1.6% in Q1? Aren’t they just kicking the can down the road for 90 days?
In 90 days they can squeak out the correct numbers knowing that their constituents wont care by then.
Yes, kicking it until after he election. The 4th quarter (if they report actual numbers) will be horrific.
It will have to vote out in October….
True, but I’m sure they will finesse October same as they’re doing this month. Or they will revise the 2Q up in October to prevent classification as recession if the 3Q can’t be finessed.
90 days plus whatever else is needed to get past election day in November.
And by far the largest manufacturer of everyday items entering the US from overseas is China. Ah, but inflation is also raging in the EU, whose consumers also have no choice but to hunker down and prepare for a very bad winter. Beset with real estate and financial crises, China can ill afford a slowdown in its export markets, but the inventory data just released by Walmart show that it is coming, if it has not happened already.
And the USS Benford has transited waters claimed by China as its own three times in the past week. A carrier battle group has departed Singapore for Taiwanese waters. Mike Pompeo has publicly offered to join Nancy Pelosi on her Taiwan junket. . .
Granted, the average IQ in DC these days seems to be on the order of a single cell amoeba, but even a single cell amoeba would stay off this course. Who in their right minds would antagonize China in this fashion at this time? I am beginning to wonder whether the simulations are so bad that the Pentagon has concluded we need to fight China now rather than suffer a sure and crushing defeat in the near future.
No, the simulation says the US population removes the elite from power, slowly, then all at once. A war secures their position. China has demographic and as you pointed out, financial stability problems. Their window is actually closing, which makes them more dangerous.
Xi’s window in particular is closing– there is a faction inside the Politburo that is working hard to overthrow him. Which is why our actions at this time make no apparent sense. I emphasize the word “apparent.”
why do we need to “fight China” at all?
For the same reason that we fought Japan– to prevent an Asian power from gaining control of everything from the Kuriles to Australia.
Good point, and Chicoms are already deep into Australia. I don’t recognize the place any more.
Where do the $Billions in hardware and cash we shipped to Ukraine and exports of US natural gas reserves to China and Europe fit into the balance ledger.
It’s considered government spending and counts toward GDP.
Child abuse and Domestic Violence tend to soar as well under these condition.
A Day of Reckoning will come.
Animals are dumped and abandoned as well. Shelters are full now
They can only play the shell game for so long. The inevitable is here.
Should we listen for the drumbeat of a nice little war?
Have to say, despite my other comment, I have a little concern that the US Navy isn’t up to the task. Fighting ship fires and basic navigation seem to be low priorities these days.
Yeah, the systems are robust but maintenance and human factors are big wild cards, with the latter likely to become more tenuous if a domestic conflict or guerilla warfare breaks out at home. Divided priorities.
It’s pretty amazing! There are catastrophic problems with the American economy. Real estate sales collapsing, car repossessions going up exponentially, credit card debt out of control, mortgage payments and other debt instruments being deferred by the government, student debt completely over the top, the Federal Reserve printing trillions and sending out stimulus checks like candy, big tech companies announcing huge layoffs, consumer spending greatly slowing down….. I could go on and on.
Point is, we are facing possibly the biggest monetary crisis in many many years.
Today the FED raised rates the expected 3/4% admitting an obvious economic problem and attempting to reign in the immense inflation we have experienced. They, interestingly enough, are the main authors of this entire fiasco.
Also today, the stock market went up like a rocket ship! There’s an old Wall Street saw that states: “Never fight the tape!” Many believe this is going to cure all our ills. Many people are going to be hurt badly before this is all over; depending on what side of this issue they are on. Should be quite interesting in the third and fourth quarters.
If only people could see the opportunity to destroy the moneychangers. A flotilla of them sailing from skyscrapers ala 1929 would put a never ending smile on my face. Their private jets augering in, perhaps less so, hate to see good materials wasted on scum humans.
However, greed usually gets the better of us so the misery and suffering, avarice and mendacity, all things human, will go on without ever addressing the avoidable root cause, humans. Hence, the cycle will repeat, generation after generation. Like father to son to grandson. Here’s looking at you George Soros. Well done.
Yes, very true indeed! This time they threw in a small twist. They managed to get the sheep to line up for their life saving Fauci juice. You gotta give them credit! The minions get screwed economically right after getting their vaccinations. It’s genius!!
Dr Suess:
We are not in recession,
We are not in a depression,
As a matter of fact,
It’s quite like a repression…
https://rumble.com/v1dpy4x-our-plan-is-more-obvious-than-ever-news-update.html?mref=5vzvn&mc=8dht7
Spot On Analysis! Now that I KNOW the truth, how do I keep my mouth shut as the network “stars” all use the same words and phrases to describe the MARVEL that is Obama Economics? Thank You Sundance!
All the charities in my area are reporting increased demand with no increase in resources to help them.
The government can say whatever but we see it.
Alright then, since they can redefine a woman, than why in the Sam Hell wouldn’t they take a run at the recession definition as well? Good Grief! “Potato potahtoh, tamato, tamahtoh. let’s call the whole thing off. “
Don’t forget the multiple revisions of what a vaccine was
How ironic. By insisting that the economy is not in recession, Biden and his handlers are supplying Powell with cover to go on raising interest rates to combat inflation. Hence today’s 75 BPS jump. This is the same strategy the Fed employed in 1981 to starve the Nixon/Ford/Carter inflationary wave, which means that the unemployment rate is also going to go up.
Is the Fed now at war with the spendthrifts in Congress? If the Fed stops printing, where will the Dems get the trillions that they must have for the next round of stimulus payments this fall?
Nah. No stimmies. Billions to Ukie-puke, though.
I don’t know why they think the word recession matters. It only matters in the media and inside the Beltway.
People don’t care what you call it. They know the cost of gas, food, home heating. They know when friends and family lose jobs and businesses close where they live.
I hate these people.
Hate them So much.
What Jaeger sed
Was it Truman who said he wanted a “one handed economic advisor” cause “You guys are always telling me “on the one hand,..but on the other hand”?
Get some Insurance company actuaries as “economic advisors”; the survival of the company is dependant on their ability to accurately predict the policy holders survival.
And they make phenominally accurate predictions…
Yup, it was Truman, at least he is the one who made that phrase famous.
Red States…the ones that Dims hate and love to condemn…are keeping the Country afloat.
Blue States are a sinking ship dragging everything down.
Eff them.
What matters is that loss of jobs will follow soon.
And what will happen in a few weeks when the data get “revised” downward? I’ll tell you what will happen….CRICKETS from the MSM!!
Did Bribem have a drugged up no blink, bug eyed reaction to this news ?
Would love to see you do a monthly news video Sundance. Perhaps something uploaded here to avoid Youtube? This really is the only place to get accurate news
Comfort yourselves realizing that the Waltons (Wal Mart) big corporatists, big enemies of Donald Trump, big supporters of open borders.. simply bad people, will be much less rich and very soon.
Ah Sam Walton, you could pass on your money but not your brains.
There is no better place for REAL economic analysis than this site. None.
The Forbes article is a stew of obtuse and disconnected data , open to selective interpretation by anyone interested in making an impact on the daily Apocalyptic Hit Parade.
Pick whatever stats you want from the report, create whatever disaster you can cobble together – and see if it makes it into the top ten of the Apocalyptic Hit Parade!
I just heard Geraldo say that Powell said today that “consumer demand is strong.”
Did Powell indeed say that today?
Good afternoon all,
I rarely post anything, lurk and read daily, felt compelled to add my two cents today.
Marty Daniels testified before a congressional committee today and had the audacity to call the Congress critters out for blaming the gun.
“it’s a local problem”
C-SPAN had to temporarily cease recording to clean the congressional brain matter off the camera.
On a local matter my mayor,Van Johnson, has blamed Kemp and the new constitutional carry in Georgia for the increase in black on black murders in Savannah.
He conveniently leaves out the fact that more than half the charged murderers are prohibited from owning handguns for a previous felony conviction.
A third of all those arrested for handgun crimes in Savannah have serious juvenile record sealed.
Render this crap as far as your mind will take it or allow it. What remains? Is it a he said she said, fork in the road? Something close perhaps, a philosophical difference, a sun will come up or no it will not moment?
If a person’s default mode is emotional would that be different from a rational mode, or a spiritual mode and if so how would it manifest itself in perspectives, etc.? Listen to the language being used, the actual words, the expressions…where do they fit in this three choice (filters) area I am presenting. How do you feel, what do you think, your belief is what…these are the questions every shrink asks a patient.
Is the Jan 6th committee operating with a rational mode or is it emotional? How would they differ in presentation? I think you get my point. Remember, there are extremes in each mode, the game is when to spot it and know what it presents and if different from yours how to respond.
It is also very important to look into your mirror, deeply and honestly…and perhaps often. Good luck, it is a jungle out there, filled with predators and pitfalls and many mysteries we know so little of.
What do you expect from ‘the most extroverted country in the world’? The US is ESFP central–all ‘lookit meeeee!’ and ‘Muh feeelzzzz!’
As an extreme ‘thinker-judger’ introvert, it irks me to no end.
Obiden’s sale of 1 million barrels a day from the SPR to Europe and China is added to exports. Raising the GDP. Just a coincidence.
Economics is just as harsh and unforgiving as physics. It just takes longer for the apple to hit you in the head.
I would like Sundance or anyone else talk about the employment situation. There seems to be 2 jobs available for every person looking for a job. Supposedly there is a great demand for hiring new employees. But I am not seeing it, just low level pt jobs.
Pardon me if I misunderstand your request. “The employment situation” varies widely by type of industry, from town to town and region to region. I live in a “tourist destination”, a postcard-pretty town of 10k by the water. There’s lots of turnover in hospitality jobs in the bars, cafes and hotels. Those are the P/T jobs. The largest single employers are a paper mill, a hospital (and associated clinics), two chain grocery stores, a high school and various offices of county government. Those are the F/T jobs, all unionized, all with systems you have to work your way through. Nobody’s going to walk in off the street and get one of them without jumping through their hoops.
In my town there are not two F/T jobs for everyone looking EXCEPT at the hospital. You need licenses to get health care jobs, and they are currently short-staffed. Most younger people here either move away for work, or accept they will probably be working 2-3 P/T jobs in food/beverage and/or cleaning hotel rooms and houses. The “independent contractors” are our local farmers, vintners and ranchers. They hire seasonally.
There are other factors that can shape local economies. I live in a county that is full of retirees. The median age is 59. Senior residents want and need different goods/services than young families. By comparison, the big city two hours south has a median age of 37. That’s going to create and drive a different set of businesses from top to bottom.
The overall employment strategy that has worked well for me was to consider two things – my skill sets/credentials, and places I might like to live (for whatever reason). You can pick a town and analyze what the specific “demands” are there and prepare for entry into those industries. Or you can take your list of qualifications and research to see where they are already hiring for your kind of profession. Or you can try to achieve a balance between the two.
Thirteen years ago I picked a town to move to where I had skills they needed, but where I would also like to live as a retiree. When I was young I chose more for things like the local dating scene, and opportunities to train and do internships. You have to make choices appropriate to your ambitions at your own stage of life. There’s always work somewhere. It may not be where you currently live.
I am not talking about me but about the employment as a whole across the nation. Sorry I wasn’t clearer.
To me there seems to be available workers but no one seems to be getting those jobs that are advertised. Just my observation.
I simply have to say it:
“This is the wisdom of ‘MAGA.'”
Which, I hasten to say, is “a very simple human wisdom” that none of our
alliesenemies ever forgot.Even though every single one of our “so-called leaders” certainly did.
“The greatest Art of War is to subdue your enemy without fighting him.”
– Sun Tzu
“There hasn’t been a Democracy yet that didn’t commit suicide.”
– President John Adams
If you do not place your country “first,” then nobody else on Planet Earth ever will!”
Duh.
If you
do notcannot “out-produce everyone else,” then you can never “win [real …] wars.”If we can bankrupt the Chai-knees it will be worth it. Stop buying their crap!
The more interesting thing to ponder is the downwind butterfly effect of slowing US consumer demand for goods. If this slowdown in consumption continues factories in Asia will start to shutter resulting in their economy to waver. One might wonder if the nearly 1 million people refusing to pay their mortgages in China is partly due to this…if not then Chinese leadership must be saturating the Yellow River as we speak.