All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies. In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today. However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy.
As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year.
Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically. In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand.
The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP. The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July. I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods. My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession.
That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements.
(CNBC) – […] There could be an increase in distressed retailers beginning later this year, experts say, as ballooning prices dent demand for certain goods, stores contend with bloated inventory levels and a potential recession looms.
[…] The latest retail sales data shows where consumers are pulling back the most. Advance retail and food service spending fell 0.3% in May versus the prior month, the Commerce Department reported last week. Furniture and home furnishings retailers, electronics and appliances stores, and health- and personal-care chains all saw month-over-month declines.
“Consumers aren’t just buying less stuff, they are shopping less, which means a loss of the impulse-shopping moments that are critical to retail growth,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor at NPD Group, a market research firm.
In the first three months of 2022, consumers bought 6% fewer items at retail than they did in the first quarter of 2021, NPD Group said in a survey issued in late May. More than 8 in 10 U.S consumers said they planned to make further changes to pull back on their spending in the next three to six months, it said.
[…] Rising inventory levels are also on bankruptcy advisors’ radar because they have the potential to lead to much bigger problems. Retailers from Gap to Abercrombie & Fitch to Kohl’s have said in recent weeks that they have too much stuff after shipments arrived late and consumers abruptly changed what they were shopping for.
Target said earlier this month that it’s planning markdowns and canceling some orders to try to get rid of unwanted merchandise. As other retailers follow suit, profits are going to contract in the near term, said Joseph Malfitano, founder of turnaround and restructuring firm Malfitano Partners.
And when a retailer’s profit margins shrink as its inventories are reappraised — a routine practice in the industry — those inventories won’t be worth as much, Malfitano explained. A company’s borrowing base could fall as a result, he said.
“Some retailers have been able to cancel orders to not create more of a bubble on inventory. But a lot of retailers can’t cancel those orders,” Malfitano said. “So if the retailers that can’t cancel orders don’t knock it out of the park during the holiday season, their margins are going to go way down.” (read more)
SENATOR CHUCK SCHUMER (DEMOCRAT-NY): “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind and you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”
I haven’t heard Liz Cheney say one word about the insurrection ginned up by Chuck Schumer against our government.
She’s not getting paid for that. Her employers see only Trump as bad for business.
With any luck she is aborting herself before Wyoming law changes.
What does this have to do with the OP?
I’m exercising my 1st amendment right….problem?
See #2
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/guidelines-for-comments/
The nation is on the verge of collapse, let’s not worry about the small things.
Right. And for such comments as you describe and those of SCP, why not take them to the forum for which Sundance has provided for them. He ALWAYS has two that are new at the beginning of the day.
You people are NO DIFFERENT from those people who always want to change the subject, no matter how important it is or inappropriate the forum is, to what YOU want to discuss.
BLM, Jane’s Revenge, RINOS, NeverTrumpers, Globalists, etc. all operate the same way.
You simply want to hijack very important conversations so you can vent. STFU.
We have a lot of OP Police here today! LOL.
Maybe mixed up “inflationary” and “incendiary”?
Or Waters, Ocasio-Cortez etc ….
Conspiracy to incite a riot or something. FBI will get right on that.
Therefore, bc of the cooked books, technically no recession before the 2022 election.
Well, they can make believe that that is the case, but the people living through it will know otherwise.
When it does hit, will anyone actually ask why it is hitting harder than expected? One would think hiding the true state of the economy will result in a harder hit than expected when they meet reality.
Not make believe…….
re-imagined is the lingo
Daughter is a furniture buyer for an upper end chain. Aside from the fact they spent the last year trying to sell pieces that wouldn’t be delivered for 6 months, now the retail buyers have vanished
There will be lots of buyers of discretionary things that will disappear as they try to pay for food.
Seriously, it comes down to that. If you don’t eat, what the hell does it matter if you sit on a nice sofa, or an orange crate? If you can’t pay for food for junior, why buy the new TV? If you can’t afford food, why buy the latest cell phone?
Given the current prices going into food production, there are going to be a LOT of people disappearing from buying what they absolutely do not need to survive.
Sorry to hear your daughter is in such a job, but it might be wise for her to start seeking other employment.
The only ones not affected by this will be those getting their usual hand-out from the government after it’s stolen from taxpayers like your daughter.
The more the economy fails the more the current admin and its cheerleaders look moronic and clueless and even vindictive as they claim we have a strong economy and best employment.
More people will open their eyes as they see the disconnect.
There will be one more quarter before the election. But, if shoppers are aware of their surroundings, they can see that nobody is buying even ordinary home goods. Walmart here still has a little winter clothing. And, more people are telling me that they are recycling, repairing, and refinishing what they already have instead of dumping.
I wanted a new mailbox since I am having to re-locate it in a different place. I went online and priced one about the size of my 60-year-old, heavy, rusty metal mailbox. 1) A new cheap flimsy model $50-75. 2) A sturdier metal one but slightly smaller $119. 3) the same thing as 2) with a lock – $134-$164.
I bought some automotive rust stop, some sandpaper, and a can of spray paint.
What if the recession is just a big hoax like Covid?
If it were a hoax they would be shouting it from the rooftops instead of trying daily to hide it and pretend it is not happening.
It is always the opposite of what they speak. They say we are a strong economy and inflation is good.
Then someone needs to tell that to the economy.
Guarantee it is not.
I’ve started to hear the propaganda of the Left ramp up to create an Age War, i.e., that the old folks on SS & Medicare have stolen all the wealth so that there isn’t anything for the young and middle aged.
Been hearing that for 5 years or so, and there’s real hatred there, on the part of the entitled young. Be sure that the PTB that want to get rid of us oldies will stoke this war, and use it as an excuse to cut back SS, etc.
I don’t know about you, but my Thanksgiving, and Christmas dinner, is already in the freezer! If what they are doing in Norway is anything to go by. They will be slaughtering all of the cattle and chickens within the next 3 years due to methane.
My chickens are my pets. The Useless Eaters In Charge can get back to me on killing my chickens when they show me the bloodied, dead carcasses of their pet dogs. Dogs fart. Chickens don’t. They can GTFO with their ‘methane’ b.s.
Chickens do fart. It just doesn’t affect the climate much lol
If governments worldwide feel bound and determined to cause a Depression again, I for one think it will be vastly improved by their forcing me to believe the Truth that there isn’t one rather than the misinformation from my own lying eyes.
Holiday season? you jest. We will be fortunate to make November.
Silly economists. For normal people, reality will dictate NO holiday spending with, at best, a few carefully identified exceptions.
It’s really ludicrous that all of the agencies, boards, deciders, and rulers have demonstrated themselves to be either stupid or malevolent and yet they are confident that it is their place to tell us what to think and what to do.
When I was a kid (I am number 7 of 8), Mom had to buy presents throughout the year and hide them away. That’s the only way she was able to give us all a Christmas. She always worked Christmas miracles in our house. I believe we will have to do the same if we want to give presents to our children/grandchildren.
Merry Christmas!! in July literally!
If I were a parent of young children, I would be haunting the yard sales right now to stock up for Christmas.
Many of my family members ae doing exactly that.
They are also preparing as best they can by shopping at thrift stores and buying clothing for the young ones for the next few years.
Our neighbors here in our rural area are busy buying chickens, ducks and goats.
I am amazed at how many sheds and outbuildings have cropped up around here at the neighbor’s homes.
So very many new sheds for what I do not know but they are all trying to prepare for something.
Lots of chicken feed and things like that piled high and higher at our rural feed type stores.
Lots of things for poultry out in the parking lots, chicken houses and feeding stations and things that we have not seen being sold before.
There must be a new market for these things as so many more people are buying live poultry around here and need them.
I have never seen so many of these things sold at our farm stores here before.
Backyard chickens=food. Last year chicks were in all year long, previously they were seasonal.
I find it hard to believe our government and irs lobbyists would be so cruel and malicious to so many Americans….then I remember it really is all intentional. Hate is too light a word for them.
Any fake President who can issue an EO protecting the rights of doctors to give little kids drugs to castrate them and perform surgeries to lop off their reproductive organs including mastectomies, has no problem destroying the free market.
Biden may be only doing what the psycho globalists tell him to do but he’s pure evil.
Susan Rice, real white house power, pudding brain needs a note card to manage a large conf room
I would say the lights are on but nobody’s home.
However his lights went out long ago. And seeing his cheat sheet the other day tells me he needs to be placed in secure accomodation.
He’s just conserving electricity — shouldn’t leave those lights on, especially if nobody’s home!! Joke…
And a good one.
Let’s get rid of the layers of boards that hold doctors hostage to politics. Get the democrat party and the “public” schools out of medicine. Castrate the WHO, CDC, FDA and corrupt organization like the AMA and go back to a doctor and patient without outsiders like the fake president telling them what to do.
Here’s the thing – they’re all humans just like us. That’s quite a statement on our species. It’s amazing we get anything done at all.
You’re too kind.
They’re sub-human at best.
Not like us at all. s/
“When all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done.” H. L. Mencken
If this keeps going I can see a Port of LA tea party in the future.
test
Pass. Pull up a branch cat.
We truly need a knock down recession. Treepers understand that.
The shell shocked consumer who will soon start to see the mortgage payment reset higher, the 401k value go lower, and watching stock values swooning will cut back even more from financial fear and uncertainty as these factors feed into the economy as well. Banking and finance has always been based on a high degree of confidence and that is gone and will take a long time to rebuild without another Reagan or Trump back in office. Unfortunately Reagan is dead and the Dems plan to kill off Trump through indictment.
We’re just waiting for our next electric bill.
Did your rates go up? I switched to time of use and my bills have gone down but it’s easier to control when it’s a one person household. Afternoon naps in our heat help (average high temp for the last 11 days was 92, not factoring in the humidity).
Our increased rates will show up on the incoming bill. Our temps have been in the 99/feels like 105 range.
When the heat in Texas exploded higher this month, we set our thermostat on 84/day, 80/night. We have acclimated to this and are actually pretty comfortable, as long as we move more slowly.
We’ve kept lights on limited to one lamp in our main living area with a couple of accessory lamps in our bookcases for atmosphere. Dinners include anything that requires little to no cooking…and we do have ceiling fans in every room which don’t seem to eat electricity as the AC does.
So we’ve adjusted but won’t know if is enough until the bill drops.
I do batch cooking, very little oven use and thermostat set between 78 and 84, depending on the time of day. The ceiling fans are miracle workers.
I’m just happy I have central air since be my old 1939 house did not. Even worse, the heat and hot water used home heating oil. I really feel for this people.
During the hottest part of the day while I am trying to stay cool, I remember this country was settled by intrepid pioneers who loaded up whatever possessions they had and set off for where, they did not know…in all sorts of weather. Some of it, as in the South very VERY hot. No AC.
They carried on regardless and made the best of whatever they faced, a lot of it brutal.
And then, I feel ashamed of myself for my mini moans.
I’ve been critical of spoiled Americans I’ve seen abroad and many in this country. It’s quite a revelation to suddenly realize that I am one of those I’ve been so freely criticizing.
It was only when I thought of previous generations did I think to myself, “Self, you really need to shut up and just get on with it.”
And this I have done. Attitude is all.
The pioneers carried on without cell phones, laptops, ebt cards, microwave ovens, and tvs. They survived because they were tough. They wanted to live and raise families. And yes, the weather can be brutal in the South.
Thanks for the reminder we all need. We are blessed!
Yes…exactly the conclusion I reached, AQ. We are blessed…in large and small ways.
Absolutely! It’s why I look at the way others have lived and realized the afternoon siesta makes a lot of sense.
I live in central Oklahoma. Temps in the high 90s; over a 100 with the heat index. I’m not looking forward to my next month’s electric bill. Have an overhead ceiling fan in the living room and a window a/c unit in the kitchen that runs constantly. I use a floor fan in the bedroom when I’m trying to sleep.
BTW. I’ve always enjoyed reading your comments. Keep ’em coming….
Oh bless, Joe. You are kind. I understand how uncomfortable you are with that set up. My mother in law’s house had window units only and it was the sleeping part that was very difficult. If you were closer, I’d have you here so you could enjoy a good night’s rest.
I know one shouldn’t wish the days away, especially at my age, but I am honestly counting them down until the cooler weather kicks in…say October. Stay hydrated, my friend. May the good Lord keep you in His care.🙏
I always look forward to October; it’s my favorite month of the year. Cooler temps, fall colors, etc.
I took a drive to Chandler a couple of weeks ago and was amazed at all the green vegetation, trees, and brush I saw on the way. Chandler is 30 miles north of where I live. I wanted to see what the Atwoods store looked like (Atwoods and Tractor Supply are my favorite stores). Tractor Supply in Harrah didn’t have much of an inventory, but I did pick up a tarp and an extra gas can there. Shawnee Atwoods has a lot of ammo on their shelves. And a lot of customer traffic in that store. Especially in the firearms dept.
Regular unleaded gas at Love’s holding at $4.79. Of course, the e-10 gas is less at other gas stations.
72 degrees outside now and sunny. Just turned on the window a/c and waiting for it to cool things down. Finishing that first cup of coffee.
Have a happy and blessed Sunday, Betsy
Enjoy that coffee, Joe…oddly enough we are doing the same right now. Worked a bit outside trying to water dying, parched plants, repairing a leak in the hose, killing the ants, which seem to particularly abundant this year, feeding our feathered friends and refreshing the birdbath. All, as you say before the heat kicks into high gear.
Day by day is all we can do. Thank goodness for this glorious site, full of like minded people with kind hearts…of which you are one. Blessings to you as well, Joe, on this day which the Lord has made.🤗
Get that ammo while you can. The IRS is buying it all up.
And still the gov’t has its millions of rounds bought under the Obama admin…Even for Social Security.
(I am “Bet” to my friends 😉)
Central IL residents got an 80% increase in natural gas and a 142% increase in electric. Fun times….thank GOD we escaped Hellinois in 2019.
You can’t see it, but believe me…I’m wearing my shocked face.
And I’m still wondering about your name, Cymru meaning Wales, my home for decades.
IMO, whatever the value your 401K “today”. It will be less “tomorrow”. We are in a Bear Market. What is it anyone sees makes it a Bull Market?
Bull Market resumes when FED caves – and after that brief up market then that is all she wrote for a long long time
Remember, the Fed and Uniparty are the HOUSE and they control the house rules, the inflation rate and interest rates. With the election rapidly approaching they are capable of anything to win!
“They” buy and forget in a bull market. Like they’ve done since Xiden was installed.
The noobs are learning what we learned in 2008-2010: “The casino always wins.”
The best part is that the Wall Street globalists that supported this America last movement are losing liquidity like the Hindenburg lost hydrogen. Poof… There are no more Chinese burritos to trade…anywhere.
25% drop in 3 weeks…..welcome back my friends to the Obozo era on steroids.
How does the bank reset your mortgage payment?
ARM
Adjustable Rate Mortgage
My fixed rate mortgage (2.78%) isn’t going anywhere. I do pity the people with ARMs. They have no defense against what’s going to happen. Ugly business.
Does not apply for those with fixed rate mortgages.
Any conservative running for office should be hammering home the state of the economy under Biden. Keep telling everyone the real reason gas is so high and how that affects everything you buy – be relentless. Also how the price of diesel will impact their food availability as well as cost. Farmer friend of my brother said he is burning $125 per hour on his tractor and they have eight (8) of them running 12-14 hours a day. That’s $12,000 to $14,000 per day just in fuel, then factor in triple the cost of fertilizer and associated chemicals and that’s just to get it planted, who knows if diesel will even be available come harvest time.
I’m sure POTATUS will act quickly to insure there will be diesel for harvest.
Two months after the crops need to be harvested.
I can only assume farmers have penciled out what their costs currently are, and what they will need for income to stay farming.
Unfortunately, if the economy continues going into the toilet, what customer will be able to afford paying what they will need to stay farming?
The stock market takes the elevator down and the stairs back up. 401Ks are now 301Ks. Biden has passed Carter as the worst modern day President and is now setting his sights on Hoover.
I don’t see the Republicans doing much if they take control of the House and Senate. Biden will veto bills he doesn’t like. I doubt the Republicans have the will to override his vetos. Given how they have caved on gun legislation, Ukraine spending, remained silent during the COVID mandates and will probably agree to immigration amnesty, I see them going along to get along. McCarthy as speaker would not be much of an improvement from Pelosi.
Trump supported McCarthy for rep seat only
Not for speaker. He’s gonna be out
Hoover was not a success as president. He was, however, a fine man who did tremendous work in other areas. He should never have been elected president.
OTOH, Joe Biden is a worse president than anyone in my lifetime (since Ike). He spent 36 years in the Senate doing nothing but lining his pockets, and eight more years doing it on a bigger scale as Obama’s VP and insurance policy against impeachment. He is a false Catholic and our first president to serve while afflicted with dementia, which has removed the filters that used to save him from chomping on his foot after putting it in his mouth. Those who voted for him are getting what they asked for; alas, we are getting it as well.
He would be far worse, Pelosi at least gets stuff done for her party regardless if we like it, McCarthy seems ill suited to be speaker and the turtle is worthless and does nothing. RNC Really Nothing Changes , GOP Gutless Opposition Party..
the amish have the right ideas of independence
Maybe.
We have many Amish here and most of them earn their living by selling some thing to the “English”.
They work a lot in the construction business building either a whole building or work in a niche area.
There are some who do roofing, one who does doors and windows, a couple who do insulation and some who are in the cement business.
They are not all farmer’s who live off the land here.
The ones who are farmers grow alfalfa and/or grain very few of them have milk cows and chickens any more.
Perhaps back east they have farms where they grow all their food and make all their clothes but not here.
Our Amish have cell phones and propane tanks that fuel some of their appliances in their homes.
They are not as independent as many think they are but they are hard hard workers and know how to solve problems, and if they need to become independent once again I believe they would in a heart beat.
YES!!!
I hope more people come to see and understand and begin to implement imitating the Amish mindset!
(And before it’s too late and freedom is finally murdered completely!!!)
Prices at the farmers market are definitely up but we buy there anyway. We NEED to keep local growers.
Friend of mine is a pig farmer, also grows some wheat, corn and soybeans. He told me his cost on all inputs is 3-5x higher than last year, and so he took the option from the gov to not grow this year. Guess what else will explode higher-ethanol, everything made with corn and soybeans and wheat. Fun times!
Isn’t it crazy, everyone knows why there’s contraction: high food, energy and commodity but the Dems aren’t interested in solving the problems.
Anecdote, one of my friends in the fire dept. left quite a few years ago to do real estate. Him and his wife do really well for themselves. He got into doing mortgages as well. He has a friend that asked him to sell solar with him (they’re in CA) and he said he was too busy writing loans to do anything else (although he also got his Captain for ocean boating). I talked to him yesterday and he said the loan business dried up, no one is getting mortgages unless you are in a position where you have/want to move. Again, the Fed and Dems created that probables, gonna have a lot of people who made good money doing refi’s and home purchases start to struggle as well.
I wonder how many JoeBama voters long for the good ol’ mean tweet days to return?
My Brother in Real Estate and Loans said everything has come to a complete halt. This kind of thing is “Local” so can’t necessarily project to somewhere else.
6% Mortgage rates just ended the housing boom. No refinances either.
Right now it is mostly just stopped and waiting. Next is the contraction.
Very true Fangdog.
Homes are selling like crazy here.
Here too, FBI and Space Force moving here. 6% isn’t horrible on a purchase, especially if you’re not a 1st time buyer; however, ain’t no one refinancing. There will be a huge retraction in the mortgage industry, of course there will always be loans as people will want to or must move, but the refi business is done until rates go sub 4% except for very rare circumstances.
Destruction of small businesses will be well on its way. Main street stores that survived the pandemic will close, their place taken over by chain stores. Restaurants will suffer as their costs increase and people trying to save money for gas and food will stay at home to eat.
If the chain store is a franchise it will be less likely to survive than an independent that can be flexible.
I’ve noticed that restaurants are now serving smaller portions against higher prices.
We’re retired, we dont eat out much, my one ton RAM is used sparingly, we shop sales for groceries, non essential items are rarely purchased, and we’re debt free. From our prospective, increases in the price for the non essentials is easy to spot. A guy set up a food trailer in a near downtown lot selling cheesesteaks for $18 each. While another one just up the street that sells Mexican food made a statement that if they dont get more business, they were going to move or fold.
Were getting into the prime of tourist season where the city makes its best tax haul, especially with a week long event in July that usually attracts people from all over the world. With YNP mostly closed off due to road washouts Im not sure how many businesses will just break even. People think that the gas prices will come down by summers end, but they give me and incredulous look when I tell them that its intentional as the US transitions to a green (dead) economy.
I dont think many have prepared themselves for whats coming.
What is preparing?
You live in a house; you buy groceries and you drive your car. Is it preparing you live in a tent, shoot rabbits and ride a horse?
The sooner you start…
https://practicalpreppers.com/
Exactly Fangdog.
People will buy food, detergent, over the counter meds, TP, and things they need every day.
They will pay the light bill no matter what and life will go on very slowly but it will go on.
Like you say, are they going to live with the homeless down town and stop eating.
Are they going to live in a dug out like our homesteading ancestors and walk everywhere and shoot rabbits and deer for dinner and eat wild onions for dinner and dig a well for water by hand?
They will go on down to Walmart of Krogers or what ever and buy their dinner like they always have driving their car or truck like they always have.
Nobody is going to be milking the cow and gathering the eggs and grinding the wheat they have harvested and making bread from scratch.
Some of us do and will!
I get eggs from my chickens, I have a mill/flaker and I do make bread and pizza dough from scratch. It’s so simple even a caveman can do it.
Preparing is you pay off all debt, learn some very practical skills like home canning, carpentry, plumbing, stock up on food and other necessities that may be hard to find in a year, you store some fuel like gasoline and/or propane, and you maybe buy a bicycle or scooter for traveling locally. If you live in an area with a cold winter stack firewood and get an insert for your fireplace where you can at least have one warm room.
Oh and have some barterable items like whiskey.
Other than that I have no idea 😬
Preparing is getting out of debt, staying out of debt, paying only in cash. It’s cutting expenses to the bone, driving as little as possible to save wear and tear and gas. It’s buying necessities — staples, food, paper supplies, medical supplies, water purification — ahead, a little each time you go out “for groceries.” That’s why following the bargains, sales, coupons.
It’s buying ahead equipment, food, and building facilities to grow your own food, including learning how to efficiently keep chickens and other small animals.
It’s having firearms and other weapons and ammo stockpiled, and learning and knowing how to use them if need be.
And yes, it’s hunting and fishing. And a horse and pack horse/mule/donkey can come in handy.
These preparations will mean the difference between living and having choices in your life versus being at the mercy of scarcity, rationing, and government force.
Oh, and having a large, well-trained, good protection dog with nice fangs is a good idea, too.
People who choose to live in their la-la land thinking this really is just a temporary setback that will fade away depending on who gets into political and bureaucratic offices resulting from some important election will be sitting ducks for the conditions that are coming.
And, oh, there’s the elephant in the room few seem to be talking about: when all these jabbed people — including health care workers and doctors — start dropping like flies and rushed to emergency rooms and ICU beds, and filling up morgues and funeral parlors. Who will take care of them, and prepare them for their final resting places?
Hubris is a dish never good to eat.
Agree!
I have sister who told me she is planning to go to Florida to visit other family members in September.
Because by then the gas prices will be down again.
Oh…Kay.
I try…I really do. Sometimes it does get frustrating 🙃
We have a falling or stagnant GDP, falling retail sales, falling PMI (manufacturing and services), declining stock markets, stagnant wages, and inflation at 18%. We are in a recession and looking at stagflation
Gas lines as well. I expect them to start up in the next few months.
Back to the days of odd-even license plate numbers, lines were long then too.
The rubber meets the road when a significant number of people start losing their jobs.
I’ve been worried about this. If we avoid complete economic collapse, I don’t want to be stuck shopping at only Amazon and Walmart.
If it gets as bad as I expect, you will be thankful there is an Amazon or Walmart, or whatever becomes the substitute.
So true, that will be the least of our problems.
And that is the least of my worries right now.
What I do not want to be doing is trying to scratch up a couple of tiny potato’s or a few carrots from my back yard garden.
I really do not want that to be all I hope to have to eat.
Some people in the world would love to have a well stocked Walmart to shop at.
I remember visiting countries where it was the old men in the families job to sit by the river all day and fish, just trying to catch something, anything to eat.
If they caught anything at all, even one fish, it was cause for celebration in that family because they would have a pretty decent meal.
That is what the really old guys in the family did every day all day, fish.
The women were buys trying to figure out how to make a very small amount of food go around for a large amount of people.
Everything was rationed and there was never quite enough.
One of our Walmart’s would have been Heaven on Earth to them.
I think you’re forgetting the paying for it part.
If it gets as bad as you suspect, then you will be subject to authoritarianism by way of your “buying” power. This is all intentional, they create the problems they save you from. And it all leads to an increase in dependency on them.
If things get as bad as you say, only the strongest won’t succumb to the walmarts and Amazon.
I’ll be thankful for God, not a tyrant of a grocery store.
Cheap Crap From China will be our downfall… and Cheap Crap From China is what we’re gonna get…
Reich’s Puppet Mumbles Magoo, Nation Destroyer.
If Republicans truly wanted to push back against Xiden and the Democrats (like the Democrats would surely do if the Republicans were in total power), Senate Majority Leader Mitch–the traitor–McConnell could easily shut down the Senate using parliamentary maneuvers. McConnell has the ability and the knowledge; he could easily tie the Senate into a knot.
And even though House Congressional Republicans have less power and ability to thwart the majority–from a procedural standpoint–they could still wreck havoc if they truly wanted to.
But as well know, they don’t want to.
Voting no longer matters, we are on our own.
Let us NOT forget those who forsake us–all of them.
Mitch lives for minority position, it creates the most value for him.
Yup, read the Sundance columns.
Mitch is my senator. I have observed this for years.
The clothing store H&M has announced the closing of 240 stores in July.
That’s huge for the malls – they are barely hanging on as it is
Wait until the petro dollar is ended. We’ll be lucky to afford bread.
BRICS is coming.
That will happen any day now
By the end of the summer will be a cat 5 shitstorm
That nobody will see coming!
Sounds like we’ll be able to pick some quality Bread Makers on clearance… flour and eggs could be a problem, though…
Do you miss me yet?
No.
No, I don’t miss the 12% home mortgage I was paying
We went from one of the best economies in the world to what might be one of the worst in less than 2yrs under the leadership of Joey “Banana’s” Biden. This is all been done on purpose so they could gain total control of the wealth by wiping out the middle class.
Mom and Pop businesses will be a thing of the past.
That is why we MUST shop those type of privately owned businesses! I admit I still occasionally stumble due to necessity, but still have changed my buying habits BIG time!
Do you shop the independent sellers at eBay for odd items? There are thousands of small businesses eking out a live there.
There are big businesses and imports as well. Be discerning and help out the little guys. I am an eBay seller, but I am in a category that you will likely never stumble across. My sales are down 90%.
Haven’t used eBay in years. Used to use for old computer parts and such. Now you have me curious about what you are a seller of! LOL
They’re wiping out government debt by taking our.
This government is at war with us. They murdered our elderly, drove small businesses into bankruptcy, illegally mandated COVID injection while absolving manufactures of liability, fired workers building pipelines, indirectly fired pipe line support workers. Administration policies destroying disposable income.
Time to walk Them to the Potomac.
Milstones attached
JP Morgan & the DC crime syndicate including ALL federal “agencies” & ancillaries, massage the numbers and put forth their predetermined narrative .
Illegitimate DC “leaders” conspiring with those invading & destroying the nation they swore to protect , business “leaders “lying, political” leaders “putting their interests above the people’s , and spiritual leaders contradicting God’s Word……
This is what it looks like when elections are stolen in plain sight, and PURE evil is normalized……….
God Help Us.
……..and the Republicans DON’T CARE.
Ditch Mitch.
But won’t they only be able to hide the real recession until they have to update the Q2 number with the accurate POLB/POLA data, just like what happened in Q1? So they are only kicking the can down the road one quarter and the real data will be revealed end of October…just in time for the mid-terms….
They’ll delay the data.
Remember how every month/quarter, Obama’s BLS had to publish corrected employment figures after the fact, because his minions in the agencies had falsified the data.
Month after month. Quarter after quarter. Lies about the true unemployment & GDP, etc.
They’ve had a lot of practice.
Gas is still gonna be $7.50/gal.
They have to keep the narrative going until after the midterms.
THEY MUST HIDE THE TRUTH until then.
After the midterms nothing changes in Congress until January. All the while, FJB will continue to read his cue cards and teleprompters.
The Idiots in Charge (TIIC)
🎩 Dutchman
Will continue to lie.
They Must.
They can’t hide the truth – higher gas prices, higher food prices, small businesses failing, etc. These will be visible to everyone. Hell, they’re visible now
Far too many blame Putin because the TV/Social media tells them to.
The illusion that FJB is saving the planet (don’t worry) conflicts with what they see with there own eyes.
They can not think critically. They can not abide this being intentional.
They will vote for FJB is saving the planet.
Their only hope is FJB is saving the planet.
The narrative must be kept alive to keep them mesmerized.
They will continue to tune in until the power goes out.
They are “Stuck”.
They will manipulate the data including inflation rate so Powell can start lowering the interest rate!
PLAN-CESSION. So evil.
Mismanaged Decline.
But I believe it is a purposeful decline to make us a Third World country.
Right… Managed Decline + Incompetence = Falling Off A Cliff.
Look out below!
As David of the Bible speaks of, May they fall into the pit they have dug for us. And may the sword they are using to pierce our hearts, turn and pierce theirs instead.
List of Crappy woke retailers that can go belly up – thank you Jesus
Target
Dick’s Sporting Goods
Starbucks
Best Buy
Let’s hope Starbucks will survive. It’s the only coffee that isn’t swill. Buy the 3 pound bags at Costco for $12.99.
Buy coffee from independent roasters. Support the little guy; they sell good coffee. Try “Holler Roast” out of Tennessee.
Make your own coffee! 😖
Sounds like a lot of work!!
/s
We are one gulf, or east coast, hurricane away from going into a deep recession.
https://sweetmeteorofdeath.com/
And now it’s time for me to whistle
Knock on wood. I’m replacing my generator this week and just put in hurricane shutters all around.
All this talk of manipulated data makes all the data worthless then. If q2 is manipulated, then q1 is too, so we can’t trust either, nor can we compare one to the other.
In other words, there’s no point in speculating unless we are to trust the numbers.
I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone. I don’t think people around me have a grasp of why prices are high, or that anything else worse is coming their way. They can’t connect all the dots, they don’t want to. They get defensive if confronted by the possibility they might not be able to afford their lifestyle in a few months. I can’t even get my wife to see it at this point, I’m a one man band trying to figure out how to get some level of preparedness and self sufficiency in place. I don’t run around screaming the sky is falling, I don’t bring it up to everyone, and I don’t harp on it but it seems like everyone is in the mass psychosis of the jabs.
All my neighbors are BiteMe voters, and clueless.
Totally agree
I getcha! I closed my yarn store after 10.5 years 12/21 due to sales declining since our govP locked us down and following declines after allowed to re-open. Used to be 5 yarn shops in CS, now 2.
Am seeing all kinds of stores and services reducing hours, then closing.
Meanwhile “help wanted” in ALL types of businesses.
My dear husband thinks it will all settle down soon, but has contributed to my “food collection” by learning to can some!
I keep praying for our living Creator to help His creation.
Same here.
The other day when at a local coffee shop, two libs in the line behind were apoplectic that people would vote for Trump again. “Don’t they remember the malaise of the Trump years?!? Joe is doing wonders and these idiots can’t see that?!?”
A pox on them.
Cheney urging Wyoming Democrats to switch parties to vote for her in primary
Well she does hold all their morals and values which is to say none.
I hope WY voters will wake up, and take back their closed primaries. Any people who let Democrsts change their primaries are insane dumbasses.
It is actually a closed primary there. She is instructing them them to change their registrations.
Cheney is all about “Democracy ‘N Stuff”.
She came out with a statement affirming her pro-life stance (which surprised me) with the Dobbs decision that may put a dent in her popularity with the Demos she has started courting.
At what point does the cooked port/import books begin to become obvious?
You can only push a fraud out so long.
All you have to do is look at all the on line sales of durable goods. They are throwing things at consumers.
Exactly. Costco.com has appliance sales with “Limit 5” terms. Just what I need. Five washer-dryers, five refrigerators or 5 double ovens.
The closest affluent town near me is starting to look very Detroit’sh. Businesses closing left and right, weeds overgrown, graffiti art. The local mom and pop pizza place closed. I was bummed because I had won a free X-L off the radio, I called and asked how long I had before the win expired. They told me no expiration. I went by some weeks later and they had shut down. It was heartbreaking, nice family, I had been going there for years when in town, and I missed out on having one last hurrah of their pizza.
I did some online shopping today. I’ve noticed that My Pillow has the same pricing methodology as Kohl’s – there is ALWAYS a discount to be had and if you pay full price you are brain dead. I now have enough towels and sheets for the next decade and at my age possibly the rest of my life. I bought essentials from a couple other places but nothing extra, no matter how tempting “the deals”.
I rarely go into brick and mortar stores right now unless it’s a grocery store, usually Aldi’s but sometimes Food Lion or Publix. The Saturday morning farmers market is tempting enough. We do go out to eat a couple times a week. About 90% of the time is to a locally owned place.
Lindell should be ashamed for his manipulative “sale pricing”… I know he’s a good guy, and has spent millions on election integrity, but his advertising tactics are distinctly UN-CHRISTIAN.
I LOVE his products, they top-notch, but the endless ads, his constant yelling and gesticulating make me turn off the sound.
Ugh.
What the hell is manipulative about a long-term sale? Stop and consider his position. WalMart was his main outlet and they kicked his pillows out because they don’t like that he’s spending his fortune on lawyers to get to the bottom of the stolen election.
I don’t think going on Bannon’s Warroom to announce a reduced price for his pillows ($19.88 — the Walmart price) in order to keep his workers employed qualifies as manipulative. I see it as responsible and compassionate.
The point is that he never has sold those pillows or any other products at “full price”. Nobody is going to buy the slippers at $140 per pair…Ever. Not even if they were Ralph Lauren.
I love the pillows (I have six), but they aren’t worth $80 each. We all know it.
If you are outdoor’ish Sierra is having some great sales. I usually order online and have items delivered to the store for the free shipping. They are slashing, makes me wonder if they will be belly up soon too.
I have two data points. I am an eBay seller that serves businesses, primarily small manufacturing operations. My sales are off 90% from the high sales that I had as the country was ramping back up when reopening in 2020.
Second, many of the people we know are now using parking lot pick up services. They buy exactly what they need with zero impulse items. They are not using them just for convenience. They are using them as budget management tools. If they only have a certain amount of money, then they can add an subtract from the cart staying in budget with substitute items.
I told you all a year ago that they were going to crash retail. The left hates the American Middle Class because they view the MC as their greatest barrier to introducing socialism in America.
So, not being dumb, and realizing that the American economy was built on a manufacturing foundation, the same foundation which elevated blue collar workers into the MC, the left spent the last 40 years dismantling American manufacturing and shipping it to China, Taiwan, South Korea, Viet Nam, and virtually everywhere in the Third World they could ship the containers of American machine tools to set up new off shore factories.
It took them 40 years to wreck American manufacturing, and in the process they transferred TENS OF TRILLIONS of dollars of American MC wealth out of America. It went like this.
A small town with a thriving economy and one or two factories had wealth built up in businesses and property values. Since each manufacturing job supports an average of 10 other jobs (in the local stores, shops, construction, food, entertainment, and on and on), when they closed the factory and shipped the jobs to China, that town of say 20,000 people lost maybe 400 factory jobs, but that killed an additional 4,000 jobs, and the town just died. Businesses closed, people abandoned their houses, and the town turned into a wasteland.
Tens of millions of dollars of stored up MC wealth in that town just evaporated. Poof! But it went somewhere. It went to the town off shore where the new factory was built. And it happened all across America. Tens of Trillions of dollars of American Middle Class Wealth evaporated and REmaterialized in a foreign country.
It was the perfect heist, because no one even knew it happened to them because no one touched their bank accounts. Poof. Lost your job, your boat, your car, your house, and then your family, not to mention the town your family lived in for maybe the past hundred years. Poof. All gone.
But the left doesn’t just hate the Middle Class. They also hate the American consumer economy. In liberal faculty lounges all over the country eggheads who never created anything have complained for decades about Americans’ abundant choices. Why do we need five brands of washing machines, 10 brands of corn flakes, all these brands of EVERYTHING.
So after they killed manufacturing they set their sights on American retail. Oh sure, you can still get 20 different brands of sneakers on Amazon, but they are all made in China, and the shoe stores are about to go out of business.
You could see a year ago that they were going for the kill shot on American retail, and here it comes. Brace yourselves. It’s gonna get REAL ugly.
Trump won. And he damned well better win again.
Great post! And lots of impeachments and executions, after working on outdoor chain gangs in the heat for a few years.
Put Sheriff Joe in charge. Do everything to humiliate these cretins in Armani suits. Confiscate all their bank accounts and goods. Put them to work cleaning schit and needles off the sidewalks from the homeless. With bare hands.
The Republican’s free trade policies along with the big Chamber of Commerce support helped this happen too
The only thing that can save the economy & country now is an Executive Order nationalizing all industry & business.
What could go wrong?
So the data will be manipulated in 2nd quarter GDP in order to “technically ” avoid saying we are in a recession. Recession is defined by having 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Being naturally cheap it is easy for me to find excuses to not overspend. With gas at 5.00 , food up 25% , (along with SD prediction of a possible 40% rise by years end) and here in fl. getting hit with homeowners, flood and wind insurance of 20% raises on all of those this year is t makes much sense to get even more frugal. On a positive note with interest rates finally rising retirees who have earned little or no income on cd and treasury investments for the last many years can finally earn 2 to 3 % on those investments now or the near future. Every little bit helps. Pray and pray more.
Explain “save”.
I fear that IS the goal. Especially nationalizing the oil industry. Given the competence demonstrated by the current regime the though is soul chilling.
Revlon has already declared bankruptcy
Everything is a house of cards nowadays.
Hated to see that!
Nothing quite like Revlon Red! I still have several tubes and wear it for holiday parties. (Just wish I’d had the ba!!s to start wearing it a long time ago, but what the hey, better late than never.)
I went nuts on Ebay a few years ago and bought up tons of “High Beam Tan” after they discontinued it. As we used to say as smart-mouthed teenagers, “Live fast, die young, and make a good lookin’ corpse.” Got that last part covered like a blanket. 😊
While the corporatists and leftists share a common love of big government, the corporations love impulse buying and discretionary spending, while radical leftists hate it. Not a marriage made in heaven.
Here’s another problem they won’t be able to hide 30 miles out at sea.
Cliff notes:
The junta economy is as fake as the junta election.
I don’t know how other treeper investors may feel, but I have to say that this site provides far superior current, short term (LT one year) and long term (GT one year) analysis than just about anywhere. I have a couple newsletters that tend to validate what I read here, and a couple that are going to be late to the party. Regardless, I know I’m in a much better financial position today because posts made here last year prompted me to prepare.
I had no idea the drought in Kansas was this bad
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https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/kansas-farmer-hopes-for-enough-rain-to-grow-weeds
As far as the local shops going out of business, decide which ones are important to you and support them now. Maybe they’ll survive if enough people do that.
I don’t have stores like that anymore near me. I would love to buy direct from farmers.
Considering the Biden wrecking ball is barely in full swing and the average American is struggling not to circle the drain perhaps some divine intervention or the ghosts of 1776 visit the joint chiefs of staff to frighten them into actually doing their duty and stopping these DC PARASITIC DOMESTIC ENEMIES OF THE AMERICAN CITIZENS AND THE CONSTITUTION
I know the joint chiefs are mostly uniformed political hacks too
Trump should send a public message to Jobama, simply asking “Need some help?”
I would love to see the reactions from the commies.
I’d rather President Trump send a public message to Jobama: “How about you step aside and let me take care of the problems?”
How the bug stocks doing
Jaimie diamond ceo of j p morgan is a real scumbag as is goldman sachs ceo and the rest of the globalist nwo sellout banking traitors that were anti trumpers as is their fellow traitors and antiAmerican better business bureau same type of nwo sellouts!!
These fe – ing creeps all dance the dance of their decepticon manipulating puppets davos masters – and to the chicom chineses mainland commie anti Americans.!!
President Trump had and still had/has these punks all figured out – they are all anti Americans and anti Constatutionalists!!
America and We the “legal” People (citizens) have been sold out by both domestic and foreigners traitors from within and from without our 3 branches of governments at the local, state and federal levels by the likes of former and current, incompetent, presidents, congressional and judicial filth and anti American anti Constitutionalists –
America has been infiltrated by crime sociopath – commie – goose stepping fascist cartels from the incompetent brain dead joebama, the oscummer – radical jihadi – Manchurian candidate , the Clinton’s both bushes and the other incompetent brain dead idiot peanut farmer Jimmy carter crime families/administrations!!
TAKE HEART FELLOW PATRIOTS THE MORE THESE SCUMBAGS ARE SELLING US OUT WITH THEIR OPRESSIVE TREACHERY THRU ARE BEING EXPOSED BY FELLOW PATRIOTS (white hats”) what are exposing these pigs for the American hating pigs that they really are!!
Two historical facts are clearly evident and are in play: 1st – power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely (Lord Acton ??); and, 2ndly -history repeats itself (Lord Toynbee??).
I believe that both Chairman Mao tse Tung (Communist Red China) and Soviet Red Russian Premier Nikita Krushev both predicted that America would fall from both within just as much as from without – we also have pelosi and schumer and their fellow democratic traitors and Beijing Mitch and spineless Kevin McCarthy rino’s – and all their a•s kissing low life traitors in congress, the presidency and radical left wing judges!!
The current tyranny is being guided to the “precipice” – edge – that President Trump predicted // continues to reaffirm this!!
The “fake” news media and tech companies are being continually exposed for their treachery and treason !!
Finally, President Trump called out for the pulling out of the USA from nato and the u.n. Due to their anti Americanism— we see it in the b.s. ukranian puppet regime of a bought and sold comedian led by zelensky and his goose stepping storm troopers!!
President Trump made America energy self reliant – built up our economy in record time – identified and exposed America’s internal and external enemies!!
He built our military and turned them into a finely honed fighting machine no help from the traitors in dod – the state department and within the U.S. intelligence communities!!
He supported Law Enforcement our Beloved Constitution and it’s Rule of Law for good and not evil like the scum tha seeks to destroy it!!
Tic Toc!! Tic Toc!!
John Durham has been rather quiet – Julian Assauge’s Wikileaks is still alive and kicking and the Capital Police are making fools of congress and etc and so forth Et Al!!
Finally, we have a traitor for attorney general who as the chief law enforcement officer is nothing more than a piece of filth!!
TRUST THE PLAN FELLOW PATRIOTS!! IT IS ALWAYS CALMEST BEFORE THE STORM!!
PATRIOTS WILL WEED OUT AND DESTROY THE GLOBALIST NWO – THE CORRUPTED VATICAN AND FELLOW DAVOS DEEP STATERS !!
THE FORCES OF GOD’S LIGHT WILL WIN OUT OVER THE FORCES OF SATAN!!
Again Fellow Patriots – TRUST GOD’S PLAN!!
RIGHT DOES MAKE RIGHT WHEN USED PROPERLY!!
I work in the gig economy. i noticed a few months ago a significant drop in delivery tips from restaurant orders. thankfully grocery deliveries have held steady…but for how long..that is the question.