Here we go folks. Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, the first wave of producer driven inflation has just been quantified. The economic analysts are shocked, stunned, flabbergasted and surprised, because the January single month wholesale inflation of 1.0% is double what they expected.
The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released January price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 9.7% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.
Check out the single month wholesale price increases in these categories [Table 2]: Beef jumped 6.5% in January (43.9% for year). Gasoline jumped 1.9% in January, (53.9% for year). Diesel fuel jumped 9.4% in January (56.5% for year). Cooking oil 4.7% in January (36.4% for year). Home heating oil jumped 7.3% in January (47.4% for year). Pasta jumped 3.0% in January (16.2% for year). Tires jumped 4.6% in January (9.0% for year). Wholesale cleaning supplies jumped 3.8% in January (34.9% for year).
Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming. The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.
[Modified Table-A to remove noise]
Exactly as we suspected last month, the temporary drop in gasoline was the only reason December producer inflation was not MUCH higher. However, that said, the BLS did revise December PPI inflation slightly higher putting it at 9.8%. The cumulative costs of energy price increases continue to drive inflation in the entire system of goods production.
Year-over-year PPI for November (7.0%), December (7.0%) and now January (6.9%), shows the overall inflation in the wholesale supply chain is structurally here to stay. We can expect much higher prices at retail for the foreseeable future.
Keep in mind that these figures are backward looking. In my estimation the massive price increases the bureau has just quantified in January and the preceding months is the end of the first wave of massive inflation that CTH warned about last October.
“Do what you can do now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before. Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses. Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start. Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.” [October Warning]
The recent announcement of price increases we have discussed, from food producers specifically (Kraft-Heinz, Proctor and Gamble, etc.), in combination with massive fertilizer and farming costs for future yield, is the second wave that has yet to be quantified. The second wave of retail inflation is only just beginning to arrive now and will extend throughout the spring/summer of 2022.
CNBC economic analyst Steve Liesman is struggling to reconcile the economic data from the last three months against his own prior claims that he could not/would not believe the economy and inflation were as bad as the BLS statistics reflect. I do not like these elitist financial analysts who have zero connection to the Main Street economy.
Today, at the end of his remarks (very end of video below), showcasing just how disconnected these analysts are, Leisman shrugs off the massive inflation impact by saying consumers seem to be “taking it just fine.” WATCH:
No doofus, we are not taking it “just fine.”
At the end of these statistics are people really suffering and trying to figure out how to take care of their families when everything costs so much. Working people who live paycheck to paycheck are being crushed by this Bidenflation, and most people are one small event away from a major checkbook crisis. A broken car, a drop in hours worked, or an unexpected household expense can be extremely stressful right now. No one is taking this “just fine“, regardless of how much we have prepared for it.
I do not like these analysts.
(Business Insider) – Producer prices in the U.S. jumped by much more than expected in the month of January, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand surged up by 1.0 percent in January after rising by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in December.
Economists had expected producer prices to increase by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.
The sharp increase in producer prices was partly due to a substantial rebound in energy prices, which spiked by 2.5 percent in January after tumbling by 1.7 percent in December.
Food prices also showed a significant rebound, jumping by 1.6 percent in January after dipping by 0.3 percent in the previous month. (more)
Just for fun, I sent a text to a liberal colleague of mine with the inflation numbers and a comment on Biden’s performance not being so great. His response?
“Presidents don’t have any control over commodity prices.”
As we all know, there is no useful point in responding to this nonsense, but if I was in the mood, I’d respond:
“I completely agree in that THIS President has zero control over anything.”
Leave him in his own little bubble…he’ll be happier there.
He might be contagious. Can t risk that.
Of course, if it was Trump he would have complete control over everything (or him and Putin) up to, and including, what certain people did on J6.
True. “If wishes were horses…” I always think when I see comparisons of what is with what might have been. Every now and again, I see a picture of Mr and Mrs Trump from their time in office, and each time I feel as if I’ve been gut punched… an inelegant phrase, but an accurate one.
If wishes were horses we’d all be eating steak.
-Jayne Cobb
😁
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
Unfortunately, in today’s U.S., welfare recipients (beggars) ride better horses than the working man.
Re “I see a picture of Mr and Mrs Trump from their time in office, and each time I feel as if I’ve been gut punched… an inelegant phrase, but an accurate one.”
Accurate = true…
The definition of the word elegant is “pleasingly graceful and stylish in appearance or manner;” and I cannot think of anything that fits that description better than the truth.
Steadfast…
Yes, Jesse. I can’t describe the feeling I get when I look at the sheer strength and love of country the Trumps exhibited, compared to the low rent ill bred, slimy couple who hate America desecrating our White House. I feel physically ill when I think what was stolen from all of us.
I totally understand. But keep the faith (and I know you do). America will still be great long after the Bidens of the world are dead and gone to Hell.
I sincerely believe that because I believe God created America so Christians would have a place to safely worship Him; and I just don’t see Him giving up on that project after a mere 240 years.
Nor I, Jesse. His will be done, regardless of what we may wish for.
What I’ve described is Welsh hiraeth. In effect, a home sickness for a home to which you cannot return, the nostalgia ,the yearning, the grief for the lost places of your past.
I’ve always loved that word, pronounced here-ithe. And I understand it. I feel it, as I know many others do. But past is past. And yes, my little ember of hope does still burn. As my Book of Common Prayer says we know He is doing better things for us than we could hope or pray for. And faith is the watchword.
So yes, I have it as you do. Prayers and gratitude continue. Thank you for your comradic post.B
You are very welcome, wise lady. 🙂
🤗
Liberalism has no cure. Something is wrong with their DNA makeup.
I have no way of proving it but in my opinion today’s liberalism most likely originated with the descendants of those who were loyal to King George before, during, and after the Revolutionary War but still allowed to remain in America.
The Founders should have decapitated them all and fed their bodies to the sharks on the way to delivering their heads to their king.
Supposedly 40% of todays millennials claim they are LGBTQ … and likely celebrate blm terrorists too.
50% of those morons will eventually grow up and realize the nightmare they created for themselves – the rest … forever RAT victims & voters.
RATS…ONLY…DESTROY…!
They are incapable of fixing ANYTHING.
I have given up. Just once in a while, I poke him a little.
After he spent YEARS pointing to the dossier and Alfa bank as “proof that Trump is a Russian agent”, he no longer wants to talk about it. His last statement was (quote), “I think it’s clear that Trump was colluding with Russia.” This is his position even after I pointed to him the Mueller report sentence that said no one in Trump’s orbit was colluding with Russia.
He’s just a leftist fool to the end.
I wonder what his take is on the recent Durham findings. Now I would be extremely interested in learning how much of a pretzel he turns himself into over those. He’s probably fearing you’ll get back in touch.😉
I’ve been wanting to send him a text on this. Kind of waiting for a bit more from Durham, though.
This colleague of mine, over the years, has followed the leftist-tool game plan to the smallest detail:
Always the same. With every leftist that I have ever debated.
Wow, good summation!
It was ever thus. I’m sure they study a playbook for exactly the methods as you describe. “I don’t want to talk anymore” is being passive aggressive, childish, which leftists are. It really is quite pitiful.
I can’t take credit for this story and don’t know who to attribute it to… but it really seems appropriate here, even if it comes off a little harsh. You are obviously intelligent, don’t waste anymore of your time with him. You tried.
The donkey told the tiger, “The grass is blue.”
The tiger replied, “No, the grass is green .”
The discussion became heated, and the two decided to submit the issue to arbitration, so they approached the lion.
As they approached the lion on his throne, the donkey started screaming: ′′Your Highness, isn’t it true that the grass is blue?”
The lion replied: “If you believe it is true, the grass is blue.”
The donkey rushed forward and continued: ′′The tiger disagrees with me, contradicts me and annoys me. Please punish him.”
The king then declared: ′′The tiger will be punished with 3 days of silence.”
The donkey jumped with joy and went on his way, content and repeating ′′The grass is blue, the grass is blue…”
The tiger asked the lion, “Your Majesty, why have you punished me, after all, the grass is green?”
The lion replied, ′′You’ve known and seen the grass is green.”
The tiger asked, ′′So why do you punish me?”
The lion replied, “That has nothing to do with the question of whether the grass is blue or green. The punishment is because it is degrading for a brave, intelligent creature like you to waste time arguing with an ass, and on top of that, you came and bothered me with that question just to validate something you already knew was true!”
The biggest waste of time is arguing with the fool and fanatic who doesn’t care about truth or reality, but only the victory of his beliefs and illusions. Never waste time on discussions that make no sense. There are people who, for all the evidence presented to them, do not have the ability to understand. Others who are blinded by ego, hatred and resentment, and the only thing that they want is to be right even if they aren’t.
When IGNORANCE SCREAMS, intelligence moves on.
So completely true. Tempting sometimes to do so, but in the end it is a fool’s errand.
So true, and they love paying $5.00 for a gallon of gas. But if it was Trump, they would be crying 24/7.
I heard one say it was worth paying it if he didn’t have to have Trump in the presidency. There is simply no response for that.
Ask him why Obama said oil prices would necessarily skyrocket…
That’s the key.
The braindead Soros prop has NOTHING to do with any of this destruction … Soros and his Committee of EVIL are in complete control of the real whitehouse and the Biden-auto-pen … just like Soros puppet Obama & his auto-pen.
Soros & valJay kept the puppet & mooch occupied with golf, parties, photo-ops and traveling … with braindead – they just give him icecream.
If we follow his logic, then government has no control over commodity prices. This is demonstrably false as the American nation has gone from the greatest creditor nation to the greatest debtor nation in about 75 years. The decline of Rome was quite similar in that their money collapsed.
I seem to remember gas prices jumping about a dollar when biden signed his executive order butchering the energy industry. On day one of his occupancy.
If that’s the case, how come I predicted that the economy would dive if Biden was ‘elected’?!
To your colleague –
“You’re actually stupider than I thought you were.”
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
I seem to recall President Trump had a magic wand or something…..
Pretending not to know things. A pretend president’s putrid policies have everything to do with commodity prices.
Let them sleep. Stockpile before they wake up.
Idahoan mashed potatoes are $35 for 12 boxes at 26.2 ounce a box. You will get around 350 side dishes you can add cheese, or meat too. Get them Online at Walmart. Amazon if you can’t get out, are charging disgusting money for food items.
Walmart price per box is $2.98
Amazon price per box is $8
thank you for the tip and will stockpile more
Ordinary hard working citizens are not surprised but the experts are? These experts are a waste of good money that could be used to start reducing the debt.
My favorite line from this post –
No doofus, we are not taking it “just fine.”
Inflation, shortages, decreases in coverage for medical costs, increase in premiums and deductibles – WE ARE NOT JUST FINE.
And maybe a big ol correction to the market and/or increase in interest rates. DOOFUS is too kind!!
I think the so-called “experts” are FULLY aware of how bad this is but, just like their MSNBC & NBC counterparts who report the general and political news, they have orders to DOWNPLAY the horribly negative news and SPIN it as positively as they can…to PROTECT and cover for the current political Establishment: JoeBama Administration / Democrats / Uniparty/ Globalists.
CNBC is no less a FAKE NEWS SOURCE than NBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo, etc etc etc.
Sundance posts an article EVERY time a government financial report is released and without fail, these “experts” GET IT WRONG EVERY TIME. They were “surprised” by Ozero’s worse-than-estimate numbers, “surprised” by Trump’s better-than-estimate numbers, now once again they’re “surprised” by JoeBama’s worse-than-estimate numbers.
Thank you Sundance.
Maybe the reason they say “ you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy “comes from Klous Schwab’s intent to hack into human DNA . If successful this will change your DNA ability to exercise free will.
By using the mRNA technology that is in the clot shot. It’s more than money they’re after.
Transhumanism is their attempt at eternal life. Collapsing the system is what they want to build back better from.
Supply chain collapse is just a small cog in the gears of their machine.
They want to live forever and play god.
I hope this is all just a bad dream but it explains a lot of the illogic. The inmates are running the asylum .
Plan accordingly.
SOTU is barely 2 weeks away. Release the new narrative!!
I think only family members will be invited.
Does that mean there will be a smoking section?
Will this include Hunter’s various offspring?
Like the banjo playing guy in Deliverance?
The GOP members in the audience should slowly and in unison starting leaning to one side in their seats causing Joe to think that HE is not fully upright…and then he starts to tilt…and fall over…. on his anticoagulation. Whooops!
Yea, but how soon before the pro forma “revised numbers” hit the press???
After the last couple whopping lies put out by the BLS, there’s no way at all to trust anything they put out now or in the future. Should just change the agency name to BS, it would be more descriptive.
The truth is probably a good deal worse than they are admitting.
I would double or triple the 9.7%. And that is at a minimum.
If a fair equitable and uncorrupted vote were held today, Old Joe would get 81 votes if that many!
One of the gas stations I frequent stayed at $3.04 for a very long time, overnight it jumped to $3.49. Just not helpful.
When you can’t afford the over priced staled hot dog and Pepsi in side the quickie mart the cost of gas has to cover the costs of business.
I still they are fudging the numbers. It is worse and going to get far worse. I know the script delay all anti inflation policies until after elections then blame republicans for the aftermath.
“There’s inflation pretty much everywhere in this economy… and especially up the pipeline…”
Oh, there’s inflation up the pipeline, all right…
Ouch.
Well, like duh, people are working and there are jobs. So, there will be inflation. That is a good thing. – Nancy ‘Skeletor’ Pelosi
9.8% in November
9.8% in December (9.7% when released)
9.7% in January
Yes, it’s high – but it’s down on a month ago (or at least level with the initially released 9.7%).
This means it could have already peaked and is now heading down.
We simply have to wait until February data to know for sure.
The Fed will not act based on this figure.
It could also mean that 9.8 is as high as they are allowed to report.
Really.
People- no matter how stupid they are- understand the number “10”.
And when the February data comes out, you’ll want to wait till March.
In March, April
In April, May…
A primer on the effects of inflation – on the Federal Debt and GDP.
Gets both way more complicated and way simpler than this analysis. But a good place to start.
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2021/10/21/can-inflation-offset-government-debt
Inflation–another issue caused by the Stolen Election
P Trump has been proven accurate on many issues that the MSM relentlessly mocked him about. The only major issue left to prove might be the stolen election but most of the Republican party and local GOP politicians have impeded or blocked most of the investigations into election fraud. FNC’s minimal or none interest in this subject ensures that P Trump’s accusations on this crucially important issue will remain unproven in the public eye. Logic and stats indicate it was stolen.
Every time I read an article like this I think that the corrupt Dems are able to continue destroying the USA due to their election fraud efforts in 2020. One thing that is certain. The corrupt Dems never quit manipulating and trying to destroy their political opponents and it seems the USA itself including the open border, crime, runaway inflation and so on.
How aggressively are Republican voters engaged in the crucial primaries to ensure RINO’s are rejected and better candidates replace them? How effective are they in ensuring election fraud in their states is prevented? This is the best way to have any hope of reversing the decline.
Someone in town is putting up those Biden stickers that show the image of Biden pointing and in print says “I Did That”.
I am pleased to see this. i have seen the stickers on gas pumps and empty shelves in the stores.
Supply chain disruptions are tyranny by other means. Drastically reduced mass purchasing power is the path to neofeudalism. The Left is seeking nothing less than economic cessation. As for the Hapless Right, it likes to meet this plan head-on with daily doses of freshly minted aghastment.
Look Ma, I’m bleeding from every orifice but my typing finger still works.
With supply chains already in disarray I figured I had better buy some electric heating units for my basement remodel sooner rather than later. Prices at Lowe’s when I first looked in early January were $215 per unit.
A week later the price was up to $276. (I bought five at $215, yay.)
Checking now, it is back down to $243.
I read these rapid fluctuations as not production-cost based, but as a market clearing price response to the short-term drop in supply caused by the supply chain breakdowns.
As for prices dropping a bit, I read somewhere that demand for building materials is crashing. If true, that may not be so short term.
My take on all of Joe-bama’s inflationary moves (corking energy supplies, printing trillions of dollars, crashing supply lines, re-regulating everything he can), is that President Obama is trying to set off the debt bomb that hangs over our economy and our nation.
He must have been told by his economic advisors (Larry Summers would certainly have told him), that the only thing that keeps us from being well over the crush-depth of debt already is the extremely low interests that borrowers have enjoyed (and lenders hated) for many years now.
The surest way to make interest rates rise quickly is to get some inflation going so that the inflation-premium part of the interest rate rises accordingly, and boy are they jackhammering on every inflation lever they can find.
The supply-chain crashing trick is especially diabolical. Prices can be jacked way up with no production-cost increases at all. It’s a way to rapid-start the inflationary cycle.
No slow degradation of the country this time. Now Obama is in a hurry. They are all in on their election stealing gambit.
They are already declaring all opponents to be terrorists, next comes shut down our bank accounts and our speech and auditing us all and throwing us into terror war camps so we will be too weak to stop them from stealing a second round of elections.
Like with Flight 93, the goal of the hijackers in the cockpit is crash our country, and if we try to keep them from crashing it they are ready to put it into the ground that much sooner. Saving our liberty is going to be a near thing at best.
I am so thankful this inflation and terrible economic data is entirely creditable to the Biden Administration and its policies. We’ll see how many elections Marxists of any stripe (including Progressives) win in the future. Woodrow Wilson and Prohibition (remember: govt knows best!) kept Progressives out of office nearly 100 years. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Check out that deflation under President Trump. Just shows that all of this is policy driven, not the result of “the market”
Not only higher prices but companies are messing with sizes and ingredients. No longer can I buy a gallon of Ice cream…its a great deal smaller. Also, some products are being diluted….many things no longer taste the same (no, I do not have Covid). I’ve resorted to making my own bread and as Sundance mentioned, I am cooking more with creativity.
I have no choice, I live on a fixed income and I can no longer afford groceries.
soups are great for adding leftovers and with the cost of real potatoes i will wash them 3x and save the peelings chop them and put them in the soup so nothing is wasted weekly i only buy what is on sale like 4 items per store i go to 3-4 stores and use google for recipes to use these items and check big lots for reduced items about once a month especially when they have a 20% off coupon lots of cooks on net that are frugal i am babying 2 lemon trees about 10 inches grown from seeds of a fresh lemon
Frugal is the new word of the day.
Detroit Public Radio yesterday had a guy on claiming Dems should take a victory lap. He claimed that people in the bottom third of the economy are doing great, apparently. They are making so much more money now that they don’t even feel inflation. This is of course craziness. The inflationary items that affect them daily are all up 20, 30, 40, 50%. Milk, meat, gasoline, insurance, used cars, household goods, heating, electricity. Yes, they may be making a buck or two more an hour but if anybody thinks that is keeping up with the above cost increases, they are delusional. Keep in mind that wage increases are not picking up a majority of those people in the bottom third. Most of them do not earn wages but they sure do need to eat.