Hopefully this does not come as a surprise to readers here; however, according to analysis by industry insiders, Chicken prices are likely to increase by 70% this year once the full price increases in grain, used as feed, start to take hold. Overall, we will likely see a leveling off in beef prices, but pork (due to soybeans) and chicken (due to grain) will increase significantly.
The issue is one we noted in December of last year when identifying the downstream consequences of fertilizer and component products used for the production of corn, wheat and soybeans crops. “You might say those crops do not seem like they are that important. However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.” {Go Deep}
(Fox Business) – Evercore ISI issued a protein inflation note this week projecting that most protein prices are forecasted to increase “substantially” due to the higher feed costs, with chicken breast reaching as high as 70% year-over-year in the first half of 2022. The analysis said pork and ground beef could climb as high as 20% year-over-year during the same period. (more)
That was last year. Those prices have doubled since then. GO DEEP
These anticipated price increases now being projected are what CTH refers to as the tail end of the second inflation wave. We entered the second wave last month driven by massive fuel and gasoline increases. Those costs will join with the fertilizer costs and create a snowball effect in the food sector.
Statistically the 2022 inflationary measure will look lower, because when the biggest part of the second wave hits, it will be cycling around in comparison time to the beginning of the first wave in 2021. The percentage of change will be lower; however, the actual dollar increase in this second wave on food products will be higher than the first.
They can cite any excuse they want to, and indeed it’s possible that feed prices have gone up. But just because they raise prices it doesn’t mean they’ll get them. They know it really depends on what the market will bear, regardless. If the market will not pay $5 or $6 a pound for chicken, what are ya gonna do? They will either move product at a lower, more palatable price, or close the freakin’ doors and nobody gets any chicken. That’s how inflation can lead to empty shelves. To illustrate what I mean, I’ll use my friend who works in the meat market at our local Food Lion. He says that the product he marks down for “manager’s specials” is moving more quickly now than it has in a long time, and instead of throwing out the things with expired shelf life, that area stays empty now, especially when some cuts of beef are regularly priced for $12 or $14 a pound here. People are holding off, and hoping for good timing to take advantage of a mark-down, which seems smart but, on the other hand, buying spoiled meat at any price is no bargain.. So he’s going to counter that by not having as much in the display case as he used to. A couple years ago, we didn’t have this problem, but we do now; wonder what changed? Elections are in November, do you think people can hold the thought long enough to remember what changed when it comes time to vote?
Last week Food Lion had chicken thighs for 79 cents per lb. My only regret is not having enough freezer space to buy more. They are perfectly grilled on my Ninja Food!
Glad I shot one more doe at the end of the season.
What I’m afraid of is the poaching of wildlife will explode. We have a hard enough time keeping them away from the turkey and deer around here. We and the neighbors in our valley (TN) mange the herd and flocks and have limit agreements with each other and trade food crops. Yet every year we have to fight road hunters and walk-in poachers. It was REALLY bad in the Obama years.
Felt inspired and ordered a new tee shirt.
COMPOST YOUR ENEMIES
I was at Costco last weekend. I usually pick up two rotisserie chickens anytime I’m there. Zero chickens and sign saying supply chain issues. Figured it’s the first sign of the Zombie Apocalypse.
Our local Tractor Supply has been out of propane all week.
I think that is when the chickens come to pick up two of you…
I have been prepping up for two months now. It’s easy to stock up on pantry and dry goods, but what about fresh foods like meats, fruits & veggies? Tuna is good but I don’t want to live on tuna long term. Canned soup is good, but too salty and full of questionable ingredients. So, I bought a pressure cooker to can food. I have been buying food in bulk, especially roast beef and chicken. It will keep in the freezer for 6 months, but after that what do you do? YOU CAN IT! It’s affordable, and a really good investment. If prices continue on this path, a pound of sirloin will be $15, and New York Steak will be $25 by the end of this year.
There is a really great You Tube channel I love called Becoming a Farm Girl — she explains how to can, what to can, and how to use it all in your regular cooking for delicious meals. Who would have thought you could use canned roast beef to make awesome (and quick) shredded taco meat? Yummy.
Please be sure that cooker can actually safely can food. I joined a Food Shortage Alert group on FB and learned that many makers of these cookers falsely advertise they are able to can, but in reality the pressure is too low to safely do so.
What universe does meat only last 6 months in a freezer? I buy in bulk and vacuum seal all fresh meats and they last 3-4 years in my freezer. Some deer I’ve kept 6 years. Dont put meat in an upright freezer with a self defrost feature. Thats a gimmick that heats up your food once a month. Keep frozen meats vac sealed, in a manual defrost chest freezer.
I just recently learned Bayer now owns Monsanto. I’m not a big believer in documentaries because they have a predetermined outcome or narrative if you will. But the Monsanto one was eye opening. And as the years pass everything in it is being proven true.
To encapsulate the theme, they sell seeds that require their chemicals to grow. Chemicals like Roundup.
Anyone out there able to prove, disprove, or give more facts?
Search on the term “Roundup Ready”.
Roundup is an herbicide. Vegetation grown from Bayer/Monsanto’s patented Roundup Ready seeds are resistant to the devastation Roundup causes to all of the other plants. Roundup does not promote growth. The Roundup Ready plants become the sole survivors and have the fields to themselves.
I am so glad that I have a son who raises chickens for eggs and meat birds for the freezer. His first group of birds is half way to butcher age. Next group right after that. It is good to have kids that know that chicken isn’t born in cellophane packages in a supermarket cooler.
This doesn’t even take into account the bird flu running rampant through the midwest states. I’ve heard in Iowa and Nebraska thousands of chickens had to be culled due to the disease. Once one chicken is infected the whole bunch have to be culled. Egg prices will also be skyrocketing. Good thing I live rural. I don’t raise egg chickens but have plenty of places to pick up eggs.
Instead of corn in our gas tanks (ethanol) it is more efficient as feed/food, especially when people start going hungry. From what I understand the US only gets about 12% of our fertilizer material from Russia/Ukraine. So how does that transpose into costs more than doubling? And there is no other place on planet earth we can source this material? None of this makes any sense. Seems to me from jab to lockdown to next step starvation this was all preplanned. What kind of gov starves it’s own people? Is this revenge because we voted for Trump? Is this a way for the cabal take back all the money Trump gave us for the last 4 years? This does seem like revenge against us peasants.
Since they caused these problems of course The federal government is making no attempt to alleviate any those issues with regards fertilizer related products.
It will be up to States to solve them.
quit relying on the federal government, border states will have to protect their own state borders as well.
A.R. Roberts, price is determined at the margin.
To make matters worse, other countries have been restricting fertilizer exports. The prices are being bid up.
Search on “oregano for chickens.” Oregano seems to strengthen their immune systems and make them less likely to contract diseases. Some people add oil or oregano to the water. If you have the right situation, growing oregano and allowing the birds to have access should be a cheap option during the growing season.
Folks, this here inflation is here to stay a while. It’s not transitory or any BS that you’ve been hearing about. It’s all a big lie. History proves that when inflation started taking hold after all the frivolous spending by LBJ and the Dems, in their Guns and butter campaign. So when Nixon took over because of mismanaging the war in Vietnam (sound familiar?), all the inflationary spending was baked in the cake. As Emeril often said you can always add but you can’t take out in cooking (he used a lot of salt BTW). It took over 10 years to finally tame the wild beast. It will take at least 5 years or longer to tame this beast.
We having shortages of eggs
Blackrock/Vanguard has monopolized everything from lumber to eggs. They are sticking it to us because they can. They don’t care what we think. They will bleed us dry until all of us live in one big company town. The political/billionaire communists class will be our ruling House of Lords to lord over us like feudal lords. We will own nothing and they will own everything and be happy. See how that works.
A message o f audacious hope in the face of food shortage
This was covered by Peter Zeihan at the Warfighters Conference at Ft Benning in February 2022. Nitrogen supply is low to the moronic ‘alternative fuel’ boondoggle. Phosphates are almost nonexistent due to China outlawing their export due to their need to rebuild their pig population due to the African Swine Fever. Potash (potassium) is going away because two of the biggest exporters of it are Russia and Belarus.
Mix that with all the moronic decisions by Brandon’s handlers and you get what’s coming. The Boomers pretty much just retired en masse and took all their capital with them. That is magnifying the Brandon inflation even higher. Messed up logistics due to Brandon and Fauci’s fascist lock downs. Some products will start to not show up in stores on a regular basis. Some will disappear. The US won’t starve but it won’t be fun. The rest of the world…. as Zeihan told the generals at Ft Benning, “The technical term is f@#$@d”.
The Earth’s population will likely be reduced by 1 billion people in the next year or two. Maybe 2 billion. If everyone reading this is in the US, thank your lucky stars.
Progressive Democrats are finished.
There are millions and millions of suburban soccer moms that are going to on the warpath when little Johnny goes hungry.
Me? I’ll just keep stacking meat while it remains reasonable and whey protein concentrate.
Possible resource for aspiring poultry owners. Looks really good to me.
How to Make Your Own Chicken or Poultry Feed
https://www.thespruce.com/make-chicken-or-poultry-feed-3016558
Just came from my local Food Lion. The butcher told me chicken is going up fifty cents next week.
Phew! The rate of increase will be lower. Otherwise … I might be paying more for food.
Idiots