An Important Message From Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue…

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has an important message about the U.S. food sector. With shortages in the retail food (grocer) sector the last part is key…. “don’t take more than you would normally use in a week or two.”  WATCH:

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The aspect that most models are missing, is the pressure on the supply-chain will not soon end.  The restaurant sector (‘food away from home’) appears to be operating at far less than half capacity (perhaps as low as 25%) due to coronavirus restrictions.  As long as those food consumers remain shifted into the retail supply chain (food at home), there are going to be long-term shortages due to capacity constraints and distribution limits.

Processing/Manufacturing – – – Distribution – – – Retail Stores

To gain an idea of the scale of the challenge here’s some big picture analytics.  There are approximately 50,000 retail outlets for grocery sales nationwide with about 250 large scale distribution centers (warehouses) regionally placed.

If you take an average across all grocers, a conservative estimate for one product category, hot dogs, each retail store would need roughly 20 cases for a resupply (all brands).  That’s one million cases of hot dogs across all retail outlets.  [50,000 stores at 20 cases each]

However, the distribution centers would also need 1 million cases, for a replenishment average of 2.5 to 3 days later.  Additionally, within 7 days (from the original delivery date) another 1 million cases would have to arrive from the manufacturer(s) to resupply the distribution centers.

That’s a total production demand for ‘hot dogs‘ of 3 million cases per week across all brands.  240 to 360 individual packages selling (twice weekly) at the store level across all grocery outlets; throughout the country.

3 million cases of hot dogs equals 600 semi tractor-trailers with 5,000 cases each, nationwide in the logistical supply chain. [200 trailers per stage: retail (day 1), distribution (day 2.5/3.0), manufacturing (day 7)]  That’s 600 tractor trailer loads, for one product category, nationwide.   [Easter is April 12th, Memorial day May 25th]

That’s a very conservative supply chain demand on one product category.

That’s just hot dogs.

Now, take the same baselines and consider the logistics of 100 cases of paper goods at the current level of need (retail all outlets), resupply (all distribution), and manufacturing:

100 cases needed per retail outlet (50,000) equals a 5 million case fill on day one.  An additional five million cases on day 3 (from distribution), and an additional five million within seven days from manufacturing.  That’s 15 million cases needed.

LOGISTICS: At 800 cases per trailer, 15 million cases of paper goods means 6,250 semi-trailers (retail), 6,250 trailers all distribution within three days, and 6,250 semi-trailers from manufacturing to distribution within seven days.  A total of 18,750 trailer loads of paper goods (towels and toilet tissue) within one week; nationwide.

♦ It is impossible for the current manufacturing supply chain (all outlets) to start from a ZERO baseline in stores and generate 3,000,000 cases of hot dogs, delivered by 600 tractor trailers, in a week.

♦ It is impossible for the current manufacturing supply chain (all outlets) to start from ZERO baseline in all stores and generate 15,000,000 cases of paper goods, delivered by 18,750 tractor trailers, in a week.

• CEREAL – It also seems impossible for the current retail supply chain (all outlets) to start from ZERO and generate 12,000,000 cases of cereal (all brands), delivered by 6,000 tractor trailers in a week.  (80 cases per store, equals 2,000 trailers/2k per – total supply chain)

• SOUP – It seems impossible for the current retail supply chain (all outlets) to start from ZERO and generate 6,000,000 cases of soup (all brands), delivered by 2,400 tractor trailers in two weeks 14 days. (40 cases per store, equals 800 trailers – total supply chain)

[Note for distribution of non perishable “pasta” and “rice” the sector mirrors soup.]

Bottom Line – There are going to be long term retail supermarket shortages until restaurants re-open.  Yes, the total food supply chain is ok, but the retail sector of the supply chain is grossly overwhelmed.  Math is math and no-one is doing it.

People are not being honest about the extent of the disruptions.

Easter is April 12th and Memorial Day is May 25th.

This entry was posted in Big Government, Coronavirus, media bias, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

182 Responses to An Important Message From Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue…

  1. booger71 says:

    Has nothing to do with AG but I just got an email from my local bank (regional bank in 3 states). They are shutting down about half of the branch banks and making the rest drive thru only. You have to make an appointment to sign loan papers,get something notarized, or get into your safe deposit box. Luckily, my branch is one of the ones staying open.

    Liked by 1 person

    • NC Nana says:

      I hardly ever go inside the bank. I use the ATM, Drive-Thru, or telephone. On rare, rare occasions I go inside.

      I received an e-mail from our bank. Until I read your comment I had mentally skipped right over the sentence that said MOST of our branch lobbies remain open for business.

      Probably won’t need to go inside but thanks for the tip.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. maggiemoowho says:

    A friend of our sent us an urgent message to share with others. He said ” Guys don’t be fooled! I was told a mask and gloves is enough to go to the store, but when I got there people were also wearing pants and shirts” 😂🤣🤣

    Liked by 13 people

  3. GB Bari says:

    34 :00 minutes into his podcast today, Dan Bongino made a very passionate plea to all State Governors to re-open ALL truckstops immediately, taking whatever precautions are necessary to protect health of the workers in each one. But get them right now open to help these truckers who are facing a gigantic task.

    Dan referenced this article:

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/urgent-states-making-life-impossibly-hard-for-truckers-who-cant-find-food-and-bathrooms-find/

    Liked by 9 people

    • CC says:

      The ‘Nightingale’ kicked the squirrels out of the nest…

      I live in the Joliet corridor of I-80 which is full of warehouses as are certain areas of I-55…15 years ago Chicagoland was either number 2 or 4 regarding trucks with container traffic….don’t know today’s stats…however…

      not too many corporate logos on the trucks that I saw, truck numbers seem to be down–I am on that interstate enough to know the truck traffic on different days of the week…seemed low for a Friday night—just got back from Ottawa…many trucks in the rest area, kind of early for them…it was only about 2130….

      Earlier today, on a local road, I did see 2 different Walmart trucks….

      My overall impression is that the truckers are moving thru but not like in January.

      Right now, the truckers are our hero’s along with those who work in the stores that provide for our food. The trucker needs must be met so they can continue to support our needs (wants?). They need their truck stops and rest areas…

      “Let them truckers roll, 10-4…..” (do I mention the lines about the Illinois National Guard-sarc)?

      Liked by 3 people

      • Gospace says:

        The truckers also aren’t dealing with the same volume of automotive traffic, making it easier for them to travel the interstates and local roads. I commute to work between 3 and 4 PM. No school buses now. No parents picking up their kids and driving them places. A lot of other people NOT on the roads because there’s nowhere to go. I travel home between midnight and 1 AM. I’m used to seeing a dozen or so cars travelling the other way. Now I MAY see 3 or 4.

        Liked by 1 person

    • upstate909 says:

      Bongino also has an excellent interview with Rear Admiral Dr.Ronny Jackson.

      Liked by 3 people

    • ATheoK says:

      Proof positive that that no one anywhere near the best and brightest made it to Governorship in multiple states or mayor at NYC.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. john says:

    So why can’t the restaurant supply chain food be repositioned toward grocery stores? Those suppliers must be anxious to sell their inventory, especially perishable items with sell-by dates. Take the food from warehouse A (Major burger franchise supplier) and sell/ship it to warehouse B (Costo, Sam’s, Kroger) suppliers. So it takes a couple extra days. Better than that food going to waste or just bring frozen until some future unknown date.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. cherokeepeople says:

    the restaurant supplies are not packaged for sale to the public.they might get a 3x3x2 box of say 50llbs of pork chops all in 1 big bag..but as i mentioned earlier my local grocery stores have fresh meat counters,those restaurant supplies could be sold to them to separate and sell individually.and i wonder if they might be happening now as last week the meat case was decimated,today it was stocked to the gills.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Sebastian Hawks says:

    I saw hot dogs in the store, but not anymore “Vienna Beef” brand which is the one I like so I skipped picking up a pack. The meat shelves were empty except for family packs of New York Strip, Sirloin Steak, and Beef Tongue. I took the NY Strip and looks like it’s pepper steak for the next few days. Also ONLY red onions left too. Our Babe Ruth Lookalike Governor just ordered the State of Illinois shut down tomorrow so there is a second wave of a huge run on the stores.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Shirley U. Geste says:

    Supply chains is nothing. Everyone knows the hens won’t lay and the onions won’t grow if they have coronavirus, and what if a late frost hits the toilet paper crop this year? Stock up – panic, panic.

    Liked by 3 people

    • upstate909 says:

      So funny….I just turned my vegetable gardens today. First day without rain in a while. Can’t wait to plant. Two more weeks I think in upstate SC.

      Like

  8. cherokeepeople says:

    i’ll be movin to montana soon,gonna raise me up a crop of dental floss!

    Liked by 2 people

  9. TonyE says:

    If I owned a restaurant I would use my vacuum wrapping machine to break up my stocks into retail size packages and sell them on a take out basis.

    I doubt the commies would complain.

    Heck, if I owned a janitorial company I would get rich selling TP, paper towels, disinfectants, bleach, etc…

    You could use your employees to package and sell.

    Liked by 1 person

    • TonyE says:

      I could also cook food, vacuum seal it and sell it. I do that at home, but here I freeze it or refrigerate for later use.

      Mexican restaurants could make a killing selling carnitas, chips, salsa, guacamole, etc…

      Like

  10. Paprika says:

    Mmm…..trying to think outside of the box on distribution here. If we have the product available at point of origin or regional warehouses and manufacturing/production is ramping up to catch up, but the big problem is transporting the product to where it needs to go because we have only so many tractor trailers to deliver said products—–

    Doesn’t the National Guard and Armed services have trucks of all kinds?

    How many rolls of toilet paper, or whatever non perishable product needed, can a commercial or military plane carry? Need to get that to/from the airport to a city distribution point–How many large trucks like leaf collection, dump trucks, pickup trucks, and etc. do the cities, counties, states Have for delivery? Strip the seats out of school buses?

    If hospitals have shut down non life threatening or elective surgeries how about delaying or prioritizing Fed EX, Amazon, and etc to deliver needed supplies–they’ve got the distribution system setup. How about diverting say 1/3 of their planes and trucks to get needed supplies to stores and distribution points?

    Seems if the product is out there to be had during a national emergency we should be using any method we have to get it where it needs to go! We’ve got empty stadiums, arenas, schools(and school buses, and etc to use as delivery systems). Sure a lot of logistics to work out, but so?

    Seems like a lot of resources sitting idle that could be used to at least get us over the hump. And hey, what a bonus, gas is cheap!

    Let’s get er done!

    Like

    • LivLovely101 says:

      I agree – schools are closed including universities. Bet they have a stash of TP, paper towels and other items etc. And the universities are closed for the semester, so they will not need them.
      There are so many ways to find things like that; you just have to think creatively.

      Like

  11. Spurwing Plover says:

    We still need agriculture and ways to ship the products we can not allow a n bunch of idiots to end all use of Fossil Fuels all over a fake crisis like Global Warming/Climate Change

    Like

  12. p.g.sharrow says:

    It is very easy for bureaucrats. and politicians to disrupt the logistics of supply and demand. But, Quite a project to reconstitute it along new lines. Once again we see that our “leaders” are too stupid to even know how stupid they are. Every time they think that they have fixed thing with their wise decisions they will find that they have caused problems even worse. Mean while they ignore the real problem. THEM !

    Like

  13. auntiefran413 says:

    I talked to my out-of-state daughter last night and she told me ab out her shopping trip to Kroger, Publix and Albertson’s. I was appalled and said, “So you’re one of those people causing shortages!” “No, Mom…I bought no more than we would use in the next three weeks.” This coming from a lady who normally buys groceries for one week! Where did I fail>

    Like

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