MAGAnomic Release: Third Quarter GDP Growth 3.5% – Exceeds Preliminary Expectations – Inflation 1.6%, Wage Growth 3.8%…

The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.

“Defying ‘conventional wisdom’ once again, 3.5 percent growth is the latest sign that the Trump economy continues to surge,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The President’s actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights.”

Overall the 3.5% growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.

Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.

Add it all up and you can see the reason for companies to boost inventory ahead of a very strong holiday season.  The middle class drives the MAGAnomic economy.  Workers are getting paid more and being taxed less; our paychecks are bigger.

Simultaneously inflation is low (prices not increasing), so the net is more disposable income to make purchases, combined with confidence in wages/jobs allowing people to spend more.

 

Bloomberg – The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter as consumers opened their wallets, businesses restocked inventories and governments boosted spending, marking the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2014.

The annualized rate of gains in gross domestic product compared with the 3.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and followed a 4.2 percent advance in the prior three months, according to Friday’s report from the Commerce Department.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, unexpectedly accelerated to a 4 percent increase — the best since 2014 — while the 0.8 percent gain in nonresidential business investment was the weakest in almost two years. In two volatile categories, inventories provided the biggest contribution since early 2015, while the drag from trade was the largest in 33 years. Government spending rose by the most since 2016.  (read more)

Here’s the full BEA report. [Table 2 is on page 8]

.

Keep in mind, none of the revamped trade deals have come into play yet….

 

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This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Dem Hypocrisy, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2018, media bias, President Trump, Taxes, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

149 Responses to MAGAnomic Release: Third Quarter GDP Growth 3.5% – Exceeds Preliminary Expectations – Inflation 1.6%, Wage Growth 3.8%…

  1. Pam says:

    Not tired of winning! 😀

    Liked by 11 people

    • fleporeblog says:

      Think about what SD pointed out about imports versus exports.

      The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth.

      If the difference between the two was zero, the 3rd Quarter would have been 5.28%. However, it doesn’t stop there because that would mean we are at a point where we are producing many of the items imported and are no longer relying on China 🇨🇳, European Union 🇪🇺 etc.

      That would have a compound effect meaning our GDP is a lot closer to 8%!

      We will never do a trade deal with China 🇨🇳! Our President tells us at every rally that they aren’t ready. What he is actually saying is that we are still a little bit away from having a Manufacturing Renaissance! Secretary Zienke the other day and Secretary Perry today stated again that by 2020 we will be a net exporter of oil.

      Fuel costs will be much cheaper in the good Old USA 🇺🇸 than anywhere else in the world!

      The sky is the limit for the beautiful ECONOMIC TRAIN 🚂!

      Liked by 18 people

      • fleporeblog says:

        Just found this nugget in the Bloomberg article:

        The drag from trade was the largest in 33 years.

        Liked by 8 people

        • Emeraldstar says:

          “The drag from trade was the largest in 33 years.”

          Must be the STAMPEDE to get ahead of the full implementation of tariffs, yes?

          Like a “going out of business” fire-sale.

          How FUN!

          Liked by 5 people

          • fleporeblog says:

            That is exactly right! The $200 Billion at 10% now goes to 25% on January 1st 😉

            Liked by 8 people

            • nightmare on k st says:

              so China builds the Wall, not Mexico, must of been part of the USMCA negotiation

              Liked by 1 person

            • 100% agree, Flep on “Surge in USA Imports”
              • Import super-surge to cover higher Holiday-Season consumer demand
              • Import super-surge to build inventory that will defer cost increases from China Tariffs
              • Import super-surge to build inventory that buys time to replace Chinese Sources

              I’d argue that we’ve also got “Suppressed USA Exports”
              • Chinese actions to devalue the Yuan to prop up their stock market
              • Export Customers’ preference to buy “cheaper from China” due to Devalued Yuan
              • Federal Reserve’s QE “unwinding” that shrinks money supply, causing the Dollar to rise
              • Export Customers’ reluctance to contact “expensive from USA” as the Dollar rises

              I believe there’s been a “Industrialization Plant Investment PAUSE” due to
              • Global Corporatists’ “Hope” for a 2018 Mid-Term REVERSAL of Trump’s authority
              • Announced massive surge in Defense Contracts that has not yet materialized
              • Deferred steel-consuming plant expansion until our Steel Production is expanded
              • Cycle Time for board approvals, funding, land, contracts & regulatory approvals
              • Shortage of construction capacity and labor availability
              • Backlogs for machinery and equipment production

              President Trump will continue to RATCHET those tariffs UP over time.

              This will drive a well-paced Manufacturing Renaissance RAMP-UP.

              As for China, they’re screwed and there will NEVER be a deal with Trump to end it.

              Liked by 2 people

        • GB Bari says:

          Bloomberg.
          Globalists gonna be globalists.

          Would love to see a chart showing the “draft in trade” for every quarter for the last 33 years versus the GDP itself.

          Liked by 2 people

      • The Tundra PA says:

        The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth.
        Felice, doesn’t that suggest an expectation of a corresponding bump of about that much for Q4?

        Like

        • GB Bari says:

          Imports are subtracted from GDP every quarter. Likewise, exports are added. The net difference is what the 1.78% was.

          The cure is to increase exports and reduce imports to either zero each other out (balanced trade) or result in net exports for a + gain in GDP.

          Liked by 2 people

          • The Tundra PA says:

            Thanks GB. I was conflating exports with money spent/consumer confidence as a measure of our economy’s health. Or something. I clearly need to take economics 101 again.

            Liked by 2 people

            • GB Bari says:

              Actually you can brush up on MAGAnomics and how PDJT’s trade strategy works but researching right here in the Treehouse Archives. Sundance has posted several fantastic articles on how the GDP and trade are related as well as other aspects. And they are well-written, are easy to read and understand.

              Use the Search block on the upper right side of the webpage, a little below the Donate button. Enter the term you are seeking like “net trade GDP” or “MAGAnomics” or something like that.

              Here is an article that came up searching on “maganomics”:
              https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/07/27/the-fundamentals-of-maganomics/

              While you’re at it, and if you are able, try the Donate button too. 🙂

              Liked by 2 people

              • Deplorable_Infidel says:

                “Actually you can brush up on MAGAnomics and how PDJT’s trade strategy works but researching right here in the Treehouse Archives.”

                I have suggested that sundance use them to write a new economics textbook. There are about 20-30 years worth of them out there that are now obsolete.

                Liked by 2 people

        • See additional drivers in my post to Flep above.

          Liked by 1 person

      • JAS says:

        Time to buy American. We can afford a little sacrifice for the moment. If the imporst are brought down, the rest is history.

        Liked by 2 people

    • Wai cheah says:

      Kevin O’Leary “100% percent chance Trump will get reelected “. Small businesses are doing great. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/kevin-oleary-says-trump-has-100-percent-chance-of-getting-reelected.html?recirc=taboolainternal

      Like

  2. talker2u says:

    This Friday afternoon news you can believe!

    Liked by 11 people

  3. wolfmoon1776 says:

    Here is the ACTUAL explosion.

    Liked by 13 people

  4. Tiffthis says:

    Friday wins 🙌🏼

    Liked by 5 people

  5. amwick says:

    annnd wall street had another crappy day… Someday I will understand this…

    Liked by 2 people

    • Ausonius says:

      Let’s just say certain people have an interest in selling things off and causing a wide downturn a week before an election.

      See:

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-26/bloodbath

      Liked by 8 people

    • GB Bari says:

      Most likely deliberate manipulation to interfere with the election. The Establishment Financial Media (CNBC, WSJ, etc.) are trying to excuse it as a “normal correction” without really presenting a rational explanation why it’s occurring right at this particular time.

      Just watch and wait. After the election it will “mysteriously” climb back up to new highs.

      Liked by 5 people

      • churchmouse says:

        ‘Most likely deliberate manipulation to interfere with the election.’ Yep, in time for the Sunday shows, with Election Day on Tuesday.

        Liked by 3 people

        • swampratterrier says:

          True.

          Once knew a New York Stock Exchange options trader rather well and he was quite open in talking about how they manipulated things to their advantage.

          Liked by 2 people

      • Beau Geste says:

        On the other hand (President Truman said he wanted a one-handed economist…) I think the stock market is driven by fear the democrats will take the House, and destroy the economic progress by hamstringing PDJT, raising taxes, preventing border control, preventing jobs, adding regulations and the like. Anyone who has a new job, or wants to keep a job, or wants a company to make a profit so its stock will be sound without bribes to politicians, has to fear the adverse effects of a pelosi-schiff-waters led House. Selling is rational behavior. Hopefully, honest people who want the economy to prosper, and keep their jobs without the dems stealing their property with taxes and taking their jobs by promoting illegal alien invasion, will be able to prevent a dem majority…

        Liked by 2 people

      • trumpismine says:

        keeping our powder dry until the Big market rally 11/8. Big smile 🙂

        Liked by 3 people

      • I’m guessing that around next Thursday/Friday, the Early & Mail Voting numbers will be so compelling to those in the know, that big-money movers will over-ride program trading and hedge fund whipsawing to “get in FIRST” before the post-election rally.

        At the end, it’s ALL about the money, and the money will be YUGE.

        Liked by 4 people

    • duchess01 says:

      Wall Street (Central Bank-driven) VS Main Street (People-driven) – methinks, amwick

      Liked by 5 people

    • R.Shanker says:

      10% corrections in the stock market happen very frequently. 20% corrections are not that uncommon. And remember that earth-shattering 30% single-day fall on Oct 19, 1987? Look at a 30 year chart of the S&P see if you can spot that awful decline ( hint: it barely registers).
      Interest rates have gone up with a “vengence” . They were at zero from 2008-2015, then they have been marched up every 3 months. The Federal Reserve is a creature of the deep state – hell the deep state would not exist without them. It does make you wonder.
      Then – we have China slowing down and having problems with their markets.
      Then we have issues in Italy.
      As usual – there is plenty to fret about.
      And face it – DJT is making the boldest move attempted in decades – in trying to overturn “globalism”, renegotiate trade deals etc.
      Its starting to work better than all the eggheads expected ( like Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman who predicted in 2016 that in the unlikely event DJT won – we would be plunged into a deep depression). But the markets are run by these same type of eggheads – they liked the old globalism ( it worked great for Wall Street – at the expense of gutting the middle class).
      If DJT pulls off the boldest economic gambit since WW2 – here is what I think happens:
      – Bond yields go up more
      – The Dollar continues to be very strong
      – International stock markets dont do too well
      – the US stock market does well – but stocks of companies in industrial type companies, oil companies etc do much better than banks and tech .
      And the economy will gradually rebuild the middle class.
      This will be a miracle and a blessing – that not one of these PhD pundits and eggheads would have the vision, guts or intellect to have pulled off.

      Liked by 10 people

      • duchess01 says:

        I thought the Tech Companies were taking a hit, Shanker – but, hey – that is just me!

        Liked by 1 person

        • R.Shanker says:

          Yes thats what I said read the end of my paragraph!
          And these tech stocks like Amazon, Facebook etc could go down a lot more. They got extremely overvalued. And are facing issues – like what business are they in? Congress is going to think about how these companies should be regulated – right now, because they are a new thing, they have a free pass and are not regulated like newspapers or TV channels. They are not just a pipe for free transmission of information ( like a phone line or internet service provider) – they actively monitor and censor content. So they need to be regulated.

          Liked by 5 people

          • duchess01 says:

            Yes, Shanker – AND – they are censoring!

            Liked by 3 people

          • duchess01 says:

            I think we need to change the ‘Liability Laws’ to smack down on these offenders – hey, Shank – aren’t the Tech Companies subsidized by the government?

            Liked by 2 people

            • R.Shanker says:

              haha – you mean like Apple’s “double Dutch Irish Sandwich”? – Thats a tax strategy they used for a long time to pay Zero in tax ! Run all taxable income through a shell company domiciled in Ireland etc – very complex.
              And I think the “elites” ( why do we call our mental midgets “elites” anyhow?!!) – and their footservants like the Clintons, Schumers and Pelosis have such a close relationship with the media ( including the social media internet companies) that they may as well be part of trhe DNC. The whole thing is very corrupt.

              Liked by 2 people

      • Excellent thinking, Shanker.
        [I’d appreciate your thoughts on how my post to Flep above factors in, as well]

        IMO, the Fed becomes a “WILD CARD”, so President Trump’s game plan for Fed accountability, Interest Rate drivers and Money Supply control becomes CRITICAL.

        One Scenario for the Taming the Fed:
        • Constrain the Fed to Interest Rates ONLY, NOT Money Supply
        • Unwind the ~$4 Trillion in QE to transition away from Fed control over Money Supply, through incentives for Corporations to complete their $4 Trillion in Low-Tax Repatriation NLT 2020.
        • Set a “Stop Limits” on the Fed Funds Rate at 0.5% LOW and 2% HIGH, with a “Single Limit Increase” of 0.25% after any quarter where Inflation (defined as the increase in consumer prices in excess of the increase in employed-worker after-tax compensation) the existing HIGH LIMIT.

        The only “Inflation” that matters is the amount in excess of the growth in workers’ disposable income!

        This ends using the Fed as a “perverse political crutch” by shifting the burden to CONGRESS and Fiscal Accountability!

        Set the precedent for the President to shut down the non-essential services of the Federal Government to ENFORCE Fiscal Accountability whenever they fail to reduce discretionary spending by 5% until the Budget is Balanced.

        Like

        • Edit:
          • Set “Stop Limits” on the Fed Funds Rate at 0.5% LOW and 2% HIGH, with a “Single Limit Increase” of 0.25% after any quarter where INFLATION (defined as the increase in consumer prices in excess of the increase in employed-worker after-tax compensation) EXCEEDS the existing HIGH STOP LIMIT.

          Like

        • This puts an end to the Fed’s power to transfer wealth from the Main Street to Wall Street.

          This puts an end to the Congress’ power to loot future generations to pay for their reelection.

          This enables the President – as our only nationally-elected leader to represent ALL of the people – to “arbitrate” the best combination of Fiscal Policy (as the primary lever) and Monetary Policy (as a backstop lever) to foster the most hospitable environment for Sustainable Economic Growth and Prosperity.

          Like

        • piper567 says:

          Just as an aside: it is a real pleasure to have some intelligent back-and-forth here on this thread…like the olden days!
          The madness has overtaken the Presidential thread…sometimes can’t figure out who or what…
          this is greatstuff…thanks, everyone for these contributions!

          Like

          • I’ve been feeling the same thing, piper.

            Grateful for the back-and-forth that’s been taking perspective and triggering ideas to a new level. Treepers are sharing amazing levels of insight!

            Hat-tip to Sundance for his ever-prescient posts!

            Like

      • Deplorable_Infidel says:

        “But the markets are run by these same type of eggheads (*) – they liked the old globalism ( it worked great for Wall Street – at the expense of gutting the middle class).”

        Motivated by short-sighted greed – plain and simple. (**) They were too stupid or did not care what happened when the middle class was gutted. Then their “gravy train” would have ended.
        However, the planet cannot exist or function on all “service jobs”.

        (*)1Corinthians 1:26 For ye see your calling, brethren, how that not many wise men after the flesh, not many mighty, not many noble, are called:

        (**) Matthew 16:26 For what is a man profited, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? or what shall a man give in exchange for his soul?

        Like

      • WSB says:

        They do not understand that the original reason for buying a share of a good company was to take a risk at ownership to make it a great company.

        I have this mean sense that we are there again. And looking forward to it!!!

        Like

    • Emeraldstar says:

      “Someday I will understand this…”

      Lemme try.

      The system is rigged. What this means, IMO, is that the tail is wagging the dog.

      The stock prices – ALL of them – are the dog.
      The derivatives (options – puts, calls, and as many hybrids as the financial “innovators” can conceive) are the tail.

      Derivatives are 100 times more powerful than the “underlying” (the equities themselves), and can be leveraged ($1 down, $10-100 effect); and so, at the whim of traders, stocks can be manipulated to do almost whatever the money middle-men wish.

      In essence, they can play the short-term (sometimes lasting YEARS) against the long-term, and squeeze out most of the good people who invest, and who cannot last as long as they can.

      It’s the bankers, and other financial institutions (including those handling commodities, currencies, and derivatives, et al), who have rigged the system in their favor. Their sheer POWER (money, resources) can – and does – outlast the individual investor, who hasn’t the leverage to remain at the poker table.

      If one can last, one can win – most times. Again, it may rake years.

      The S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ indeces have been orchestrated. Not totally – but as much as they can muster. At the end of the day, there will be a reckoning – so they can’t play fast-and-loose forever – but again, in many cases they can last longer than we can.

      I’m not giving financial advice – just my own personal opinion and insight.

      FWIW! I hope it helps a bit …

      Liked by 2 people

      • amwick says:

        That makes sense.. it hurts, but it would explain how strange everything is.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Emeraldstar says:

          “it hurts”

          Yes.

          But take heart!

          SD (I have learned a LOT from his incisive analysis!) has brilliantly laid out the conversion taking place in our Republic from the Wall St. economy BACK to the Main St. economy, because of the actions of our patriotic VSGPDJT is taking.

          We are on the RIGHT TRACK to redress the wrongs.

          We’re going to have to weather some volatile times … but future generations will have plenty of blue sky to sail by.

          I hope, and suspect, that your children (and grand-children) will be able to take just as many cruises as you, when their retirement comes.

          Things are finally looking UP!

          Take care …

          Liked by 2 people

      • Informative rant, star!

        What if President Trump has been “giving the perps all the rope they can steal”, in preparation for a Market-Manipulator Takedown…

        • October data will incontrovertibly prove Market Manipulation.
        • Investigation will reveal program-trading software designed to trigger coordinated action.
        • Trump assigns Mnuchin, Ross and Kushner to develop future controls & penalties. 😎

        Liked by 1 person

    • bmarie says:

      Traders fear the Dems will take at least one house of Congress and punish business

      Liked by 2 people

    • Leucotheahints says:

      Fed keeps jacking up rates which increases uncertainty and risk. When The Fed fiddles, the market rattles.

      Like

  6. Ausonius says:

    “Those jobs exported to China and Nigeria other third world areas are not coming back! Get used to growth of one or two per cent, and get used to being a 17th-rate country. America has to stop being the leader and start to find a new place in the world behind Sweden and Denmark and Costa Rica and other really PROGRESSIVE countries!”

    Hmmm! 🙂 🙂 😉

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Albertus Magnus says:

    This is wonderful but am wondering how some here will try to spin it, especially those who play at being MAGA but who really like to discourage or snark. Too many here get carried away with creating false expectations of forecasts that are too rosy or too negative, rather than just apply critical thinking to what the FACTS are. Just going to wait and see.

    Thanks Sundance for always getting us the FACTS and honest analysis.

    And that YOU PDJT for MAGA!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Daniel M. Camac says:

      Al-Ma, I’m with you. Just the facts, please. Sundance certainly has plenty of them and his theories based on those facts are not usually very far off from reality. Thanks Sundance.
      Thanks VSGPDJT and thanks to the Treepers and all others who voted to turn this country around.

      Liked by 1 person

    • TheLastDemocrat says:

      “There is an impending depression” gets a lot of airplay amongst the Prog commenters.

      This is an assertion you cannot argue against. Someone will make the assertion as if it is a fact, but it is fully hypothetical.

      Like

  8. Awesome!

    Also, it should be noted that most Americans in the middle of the political spectrum have historically voted based on their paychecks and well being.

    For the last several decades, it’s been Uniparty economic ping pong without a desire to win, just so long as they’re in the club.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Comrade Mope says:

    So, 3.5 is the over/under. I’ll bet it gets “revised upward”. Who wants to take the “revised downward”?

    Liked by 4 people

  10. FofBW says:

    So why does the FED keep raising the interest rates???

    Liked by 2 people

    • JMC says:

      Because normal interest rates are healthy. Low interest rates means stock market gamblers (banks, companies, brokerage houses) borrow money at almost 0% interest and gamble with it in the market. Thus the market gets pumped up into a monstrous bubble. Like now. That the economy is coming back doesn’t change this.

      Liked by 3 people

    • tax2much says:

      Because growth would be 6-7% and they can’t have that. It would be too much winning and liberals would be forced to look at hard facts and suffer meltdowns.

      Liked by 2 people

      • R.Shanker says:

        growth is not a problem – inflation could be.
        However, given how well the US economy is doing compared to China, Europe etc – The US Dollar has been very strong – and this keeps inflation down.
        The Fed is close to being done IMHO. Maybe one or two more hike to 2.5% then stop.
        Nothing in the real world goes up in a straight line – not the stock market, and not the economy. the real world has dips, potholes etc.
        The big thing is this America First agenda – rebuilding our middle class, rebuilding our infrastructure, rebuilding our hope.
        This should reverse the massive wealth disparity that has built up under globalism. Its not good that the wealtiest 400 Americans have more wealth than 200 million Americans.

        Liked by 1 person

        • R.Shanker says:

          The the ultra-wealthy ( who are largely Democrat and the Clintons and Pelosis worship at their feet) – dont live on the same planet as you and me. That is a problem.
          they dont live in the same neighborhoods, they dont go to the same schools, they dont shop at the same store . Thats why they are completely disconnected from the real world.
          They live in a world where 22 year olds start out making $250,000 /year. Where moderately successful folks make well over $1 million/year and no one with a networth less than $100 million is considered “rich”. They dont really understand why people fuss about health insurance premiums or the price of gasoline! They hire consultants to tell them what they are supposed to say to regular folk – because they themselves dont inhabit that world. Alien creatures , if you will.

          Liked by 4 people

          • R.Shanker says:

            In the days when our country actually had a prosperous middle class and a strong industrial base ( I am thinking 1940-1970), the CEO of a company lived in the same town as his workers. Sure he lived in a big house and had a fancy car. But his kids went to the same schools as everyone else, the wives shopped in the same stores. They were part of society. And the CEO made maybe 20X as much as his workers.
            Not any more. Now they make 100,000 X as much, have international lives and basically dont live in the same society.
            That will all change under this America First strategy – thats why we are seeing this vicious pushback.

            Liked by 2 people

    • GB Bari says:

      IMO – to try and derail President Trump’s MAGA Economic Recovery & Expansion.
      The Fed still is loyal to the Wall Street Globalists /Rothschilds / International NWO Cabal.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Now we all understand where the term “FED-up” came from.

      Liked by 2 people

    • duchess01 says:

      Because they can? Because they don’t like Trump? Because Mom said so? Beats me!

      Liked by 2 people

    • WVPatriot says:

      FofBW,

      The foreign banks/private individuals — ownership of the federal reserve banking system — are standing on the track between the Trump Economic Express and double digit GDP.

      Would anyone take this wager? 👍👍

      MAGA!!!

      Liked by 1 person

    • L4grasshopper says:

      Partly because they want to be able to cut them next time a recession hits.

      Almost 8 years of artificial near zero rates disarmed them. So to get their ammo back, they may too quickly raise the rates, cause a crash, and then get to cut them again.

      Liked by 2 people

    • thedoc00 says:

      Got to wonder if there isn’t some good in FED raising rates, and that President Trump plans to use that as a means to attempt and eventually stop growth in the federal debt.

      Liked by 1 person

  11. alliwantissometruth says:

    The Mind Control Media must be going bonkers. Yet more good news they’ll have to try to keep hidden or spin away. It must be exhausting for them

    Liked by 2 people

  12. woohoowee says:

    It’s the economy, Stupid. Jobs Not Mobs! Thank you President Trump45 🙂

    Liked by 4 people

  13. woohoowee says:

    They’re not going to turn us into Venezuela, I won’t let them. Thank you, President Trump45 🙂

    Liked by 4 people

  14. calbear84 says:

    Under Obama the FED dropped rates from 4.25% to ZERO. So far under Trump they’ve raised rates by 2% in under two years. It’s a sign of Trump’s robust economy that the S&P is only down 9% since the Sept 21st high. Once we’ve crushed these people in November, there will be smooth sailing and massive GDP growth ahead!

    Liked by 1 person

    • R.Shanker says:

      The Fed economists are using models that they themselves no longer believe – but they have to pretend ( otherwise the whole thing gets called into question).
      The biggest flaw is this idea that higher economic growth leads to higher inflation.
      There is no actual historical evidence that this is how it works – it is just a kinda religious belief.
      Thats why they will keep making the same mistake. Lose their nerve when the economy grows at a healthy pace – or heaven forbid wages start actually going up ( that scares them more than anything!).
      If you think about it – the Fed’s mandate is to watch wages really closely and if wages start going up even at a 3 or 4% annual rate – kill the economy, cause a recession – so wages stop rising. Thats the business they are in. They did’nt ask who gave the order – they say – to – themselves – This is The Business We Have Chosen ( apologies to Godfather II)

      Liked by 1 person

      • TheLastDemocrat says:

        “The biggest flaw is this idea that higher economic growth leads to higher inflation.
        There is no actual historical evidence that this is how it works – it is just a kinda religious belief.”

        No, it is not. Here in the USA, the cost of many things is WAY higher than elsewhere. Why? Because we are so wealthy, relative to so many places.

        Like

      • The problem with the Fed is no one rationed their ammo:
        • Unlimited Interest Rate hikes.
        • Unlimited QE.

        Plus no one Limited their playbook:
        • Arbitrarily-set “normals” for Inflation and Fed Rates.
        • Arbitrarily-changed “definition” of Inflation.
        • Arbitrarily-triggered changes in Interest and Money Supply.

        Finally, no one imposed Fed Accountability.
        • Job loss for triggering Recession.
        • Jail time for transferring Wealth.
        • Member Bank Board liability for anti-competitive behavior.

        Like

  15. prenanny says:

    Has anyone heard any details on tax cut 2.0, am curious about the additional 10% cut to middle class what earnings range that will be.

    Liked by 1 person

    • duchess01 says:

      This is strictly a ‘proposal’ but, it might help pave the way, nanny…

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-10/tax-reform-20-republicans-unveil-second-round-proposed-tax-cuts

      Like

    • WVPatriot says:

      After the SECOND devastating keyesian economic theory fail; I imagine we have a sizeable middle class.

      socialism ALWAYS fails. After over 200 years of 100% failure, one would think the “convenient idiots’ of utopian socialism would give it up!

      Liked by 2 people

      • churchmouse says:

        No, they won’t because schoolteachers simply say that socialism just hasn’t been implemented properly.

        True in the US and here in the UK. I even hear Conservative UK voters with older children championing aspects of socialism. UGH!

        Totalitarians were correct: infiltrate the home via the children via the school.

        Like

    • michaelhamblin says:

      No details here, sorry. However I would expect a few things:
      1. Make middle class tax cuts permanent. They were not permanent due to need to be revenue neutral. Massive growth means that this is no longer an issue.
      2. Massively reduce taxes on middle class earners. No more of this absurd “balancing the business tax cuts on the backs of the middle class” baloney narrative. The middle class does not contribute enough to taxes to matter and their taxation needs to reduce dramatically. The impact on commerce, employment, and poverty reduction cannot be underestimated.
      3. Reduce the middle class tax burden so much that all the special tax loopholes and deductions become pointless and frivolous. No more will you see middle class earners tracking every penny of their sales taxes in order to deduct from taxes, for example. This leads directly to:
      4. Reform the tax deduction system. If the middle class aren’t hurting for tax deductions, then we can really reform these special giveaways. Everyone knows the mortgage interest deduction needs reform for example, but you can’t do it when practically every family in the U.S. has to balance their budget and mortgage with a tax deduction! So instead of doing the politically unpopular and painful, fix the tax system first, and make it so that ordinary people don’t care about special deductions (just the “rich”) and then there won’t be any outcry for reforming it.
      5. People talk about incentivizing the tax code. Put in a child credit for more children. Put in a savings credit to encourage saving. Or that real beauty – put in a tax to encourage people to buy health insurance. STOP, just STOP. Taxes should NEVER be used to manage or manipulate behavior. Their purpose isn’t to manipulate the populace to desired social outcomes! The purpose of taxes should be exclusively limited to collection of revenue, period. All these social experiments and carve outs are what has made the tax system a disaster for the middle class. The rich can afford to pay the CPA to exploit loop holes, but the middle class don’t have a choice but to pay.

      Liked by 1 person

  16. Brian L says:

    FedEx recently caught up to the real world and gave a permanent $1.30 raise to all hourly employees. Rumors of another raise coming soon are also circulating.

    Liked by 3 people

    • R.Shanker says:

      The Federal Reserve will have to have an emergency meeting !! Their entire job is to prevent this kind of thing. Wage increase? Its their job to stop that kinda thing.
      The federal Reserve , like Federal Express has nothing to do with being “federal” – it just sounds good – its a nice name. but it aint federal its privately owned.

      Like

    • prenanny says:

      Fedex is paying at least 15$ an hour if not 16$ around here, will look closer at sign next time I drive by.

      Like

  17. Mr Spock says:

    Imports skyrocket in the autumn (especially 4th quarter) as retailers stock up for holiday season with those high quality products manufactured in Asia (China, Vietnam, Korea, Thailand, India). If recent yearly trends hold expect excessive imports to drive Q4 GDP down even more than Q3. POTUS working hard to fix this trade imbalance but it will take time.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. During the kenyan years the union halls (Building Trades) were like a tombs.
    The gloom was palpable.

    Then a substantial percent of us voted for DJ Trump and actual positive change.
    Now with POTUS Trump we can’t get it all done.
    Can’t get out of town help (travelers) because EVERYONE is working all the hours one is able at home.

    Received ballot advice from union yesterday. Vote straight damnedocrat.
    Like that is going to happen! 😦

    (what was Einstein reputed to have said about insanity?)

    I am confident even more Union Members are going to vote their pocket this time around and I suspect any sentient middle class being will vote for DJT by proxy.

    Liked by 4 people

  19. StanH says:

    And this is what matters.

    Like

  20. Mncpo(ret) says:

    A very small nugget from a very small place. My room mate (electrician helper) makes $16 an hour. He hits 1 yr in 3 weeks. He’s already got 3 job offers if he wants to leave the co.!!!! One is for $23 an hr!!! This is unheard of in rural SC, really. This boom is hitting everywhere, even here. :)))

    Liked by 5 people

  21. This is a VERY GOOD number y’all. During BHO era the media would be hollering for joy if there was GDP like this, particularly back-to-back with 2Q over 4% performance!

    Couple of points that I saw in looking at the numbers–Industrial and software equipment were up–but offset by declines in transport equipment. This would bode well for increases in later period.

    Also, let’s not forget that we had several rough hurricanes in 3Q which affected ports, production and domestic spending. I would expect bounce back as these areas spend to rebuild in 4Q. A very fine report, especially considering that inflation is so moderate–below 2%. This means that increases in wages represent real purchasing power improvement.

    Break out the champagne (or whatever festive spirits you enjoy 🙂

    Liked by 3 people

    • Declines in “transportation equipment”: Due to driver shortage or inventory depletion?

      We’ve got over 400,000 18-wheelers on order.

      Like

      • BKR,
        Not sure…I was actually surprised to see it given the press about tight trucking market. However, if there are shortages of transportation equipment then that would explain it somewhat. Orders don’t count in the numbers–only sales do—depending on how your supplier is recognizing the revenue—might be accruing PART of your order but not all. Make sense?

        Liked by 1 person

  22. Related, and very much worth a reading in its entirety:
    :
    Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?
    View story at Medium.com

    “Studies that use panel data — data that is generated from following the same people over time — consistently find that the largest gains over time accrue to the poorest workers and that the richest workers get very little of the gains. This is true in survey data. It is true in data gathered from tax returns.”

    So, once again, the Deep State economists and their eunuch lackeys in the Fake News media have been lying to you. Layer this factual analysis on top of the ongoing “Main Street” revival, and the implications are noteworthy.

    Like

    • This is just math–increase on a smaller denominator would be higher. For ex, if your parents made $25,000/year in 1975 and you now make $50,000 that would be 100% increase; vs. parental income of $100,000 with increase of even $50,000–only 50% increase.
      Percentages and percentiles can be manipulated and often are, honestly, in business.

      That said, of course the “rising tide lifts all boats” is very very true. The entire country benefits when we have a stable middle class and steady jobs—for all kinds of reasons beyond just economics. Aren’t we so doggone fortunate that POTUS not only knows that but has successfully changed the momentum for everyone–not just the “globalist/elite 1%”!

      Like

  23. Skippy says:

    Our strong American Dollar actually works against the USA, as President Trump has said many times before. Work on these 3 economic impacts: exchange rates, Treasury yields, and foreign currency reserves.

    The Federal Reserve should not make 2+% inflation their benchmark (see Paul Volker’s most recent comments please). Fed Chair Powell, imho, is pushing too hard (i.e., I agree with President Trump).

    Market corrections occur and are nothing new. Stocks are/have been/are overvalued. The Market is a strange place and is spooked right now. It’s 3 days from the biggest Wall Street crash ever, October 20, 1929. Expect these whip saws and pull backs as proper corrections.

    President Trump is right to challenge the Federal Reserve. President Trump is right to attack our Deficit via budget maneuvers, as well as move our Federal Employees out of the high cost of living Washington DC area.

    I am thankful each day for President Trump.

    Like

    • Skippy says:

      Typo of course: Biggest market crash October 29,1929.

      Like

    • From my post above on “One Scenario for the Taming the Fed”…

      • Set “Stop Limits” on the Fed Funds Rate at 0.5% LOW and 2% HIGH, with a “Single Limit Increase” of 0.25% after any quarter where INFLATION (defined as the increase in consumer prices in excess of the increase in employed-worker after-tax compensation) EXCEEDS the existing HIGH STOP LIMIT.

      The only “Inflation” that matters is the amount in excess of the growth in workers’ disposable income!

      Like

  24. Margaret Berger says:

    When I read that the big zero tries to take credit for the MAGA economy and claims it started with him I just want to shout him down and say “You didn’t build that! You don’t own that!”

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Pingback: Third Quarter GDP Growth 3.5% – Exceeds Preliminary Expectations – Inflation 1.6%, Wage Growth 3.8% – IOTW Report

  26. Wai cheah says:

    Kevin O’Leary “100% percent chance Trump will get reelected “. Small businesses are doing great. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/kevin-oleary-says-trump-has-100-percent-chance-of-getting-reelected.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    Like

  27. Pete says:

    Don t worry about the preliminary GDP number, it s being understated for political reasons. After the election it will be revised upward to above 4 and second quarter will revised upward also. It s all part of the swamp s attempt to manipulate voters. In the reign of Obama the wizard of odd they were always revised downward.

    Like

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