11:00pm Advisory – Hurricane Florence 140 MPH Winds, Anticipated Strengthening Next 36 Hours…

It is likely that hurricane watches and flood warnings will be issued Tuesday along the U.S. eastern seaboard.  According to the 11:00pm advisory:  A west- northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Check HERE for the 5am Advisory on Tuesday Morning

Due to the specifics of this storm’s potential, ask yourself: How would I need to prepare if my power was out for two weeks to a month?  Some experts are predicting massive and unprecedented flooding – SEE HERE – If you don’t have to be there, plan to leave. 

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234 Responses to 11:00pm Advisory – Hurricane Florence 140 MPH Winds, Anticipated Strengthening Next 36 Hours…

  1. smiley says:

    more hopeful news…local weather here (SWFL) now reporting that Florence is likely to hit as a Cat 3 .

    heck of a lot better than 4 or 5….regarding the wind….and structural damage.

    nevertheless…rain/surge/flooding issues are still the dreadful same.

    Liked by 3 people

    • smiley says:

      and even if it does play out like that…Cat 3…it is still a MAJOR hurricane with winds 111-129 mph…significant damage…

      do not take it lightly.

      Like

    • Accu weather just said it has a strong chance if being a Cat. 4 when it hits. They just don’t know yet.

      Like

      • smiley says:

        you’re probably right…accuweather is usually good, too.

        “they just don’t know yet”

        strong chance….possibility…probability…

        I was just suddenly encouraged when I heard the guy say Cat 3…not that that’s any picnic…but slightly less daunting than 4-5.

        if it is a Cat 3, probably a very strong one, on the cusp with Cat 4…like around 120-130 mph…

        I think it was having eye-wall trouble forming…?…yesterday?

        Like

        • Xeno says:

          Eyewall replacement cycle. The storms tend to pause in development or slightly weaken until the cycle completes. Then–if the growth conditions are still present–the storm intensifies.

          This is not good timing.

          Like

  2. Ziiggii says:

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Ziiggii says:

    Weather geek out thread, but really good info

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Ziiggii says:

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Summer says:

    I live in the Charleston area, SC. Is it time to panic yet? Pretty quiet and peaceful in my neighborhood today.

    Like

    • smiley says:

      how close are you to Wilmington NC ???

      Like

      • Summer says:

        Not very close but we still have a hurricane watch here. We were supposed to be hit badly by cat 4 Hurricane according to the infamous computer models and our Governor but it seems Florence shifted towards NC. Still, things can change pretty quickly.

        Like

        • Bon Bon says:

          I live in Charleston as well and I am from South Florida. This is a big storm. Be prepared for lots of rain with possible flooding. A power outage is probably going to happen as well. Sundance has a great check list for what to have on hand. We freeze 1/2 gallon jugs of water and put them in the top of the freezer to keep food cold during the outages. If you are uncomfortable, you should evacuate now. Hope this helps.

          Liked by 2 people

    • lawton says:

      There are charts that tell you how much hurricane wind speed degrades going over land generally based on the type of terrain and speed of it when its starts crossing. You could probably get an astimate for a worst case scenario for wind speed there.

      Like

  6. lawton says:

    The newest models out seem to be agreeing just above that SC/NC border for the landing point.NC is really going to get flooded if that is what happens.

    Like

  7. ACCU Weather is also reporting that Southeasten Virginia will ve hit gard. We are under a catastrophic warning on rains and flooding and high alert for property damage and peoples’ safety alert.

    Like

  8. Pam says:

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…26.7N 65.3W
    ABOUT 390 MI…625 KM S OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 905 MI…1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHE

    Like

  9. Ziiggii says:

    Like

      • Ziiggii says:

        in the last couple of loops you can see the next eye wall starting to take shape. There will be another EWR tonight once the new wall starts to strengthen…

        Like

        • EWR- Eye Wall Replacement. AccuWeather just confirmed what Ziiggii said.

          Like

        • smiley says:

          that’s the thing…the eye-wall

          made all the difference between Irma hitting us here in coastal SWFL as a Cat 4-5 or a Cat 3.

          Marco & The Keys took the brunt and knocked out part of the eye-wall…bringing the thing into Naples as a strong Cat 3 sustained with wicked Cat 4 gusts..

          but…the predicted horrific storm-surge did not occur here, also as a result of that.

          Like

          • SharonKinDC says:

            Was reading about the Carolinas and why storm surge is such a problem. Unlike most of Florida where the Continental Shelf drops off pretty quickly from shore, off of the NC & SC coast the CS goes out roughly 50 miles… Which means the hurricane has a long distance over shallow water and thus the surge has more time/distance to build to greater heights.

            Like

            • smiley says:

              the problem, at least here in coastal SWFL, with storm surge is the excessive highrise condo developments, concrete, lack of natural vegetation that would normally help thwart storm surge waters…that totally encompass and surround the many little canals here adjacent to the Gulf and beach areas…roads, streets, parking lots…all paved…so the sea water just gushes up..back & forth…again and again, stronger with each rain band..producing mammoth flooding..it has nowhere to go.

              Like

  10. Ziiggii says:

    Like

    • smiley says:

      that will cause the predicted “weakening” .

      hopefully it won’t have enough time to strengthen again…except it’s moving so slowly.

      what a pain !

      Like

    • smiley says:

      that wind shear might be a saving grace…if it can weaken it enough maybe…just maybe…it will make the difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 3.

      praying hoping for that.

      Like

      • olderthanuthink says:

        Katrina was a Category 3. It wasn’t the wind – it was the water.
        Once Florence makes landfall – whatever the category – she is predicted to stall. Sit there, spinning…dumping rain on already saturated ground. And the trees in that soggy ground will be ripped up and thrown about probably before Florence’s eye ever reaches the coast. Tropical storm-force winds of 74 mph will successfully redecorate your lawn in those conditions – not to mention aerate your roof.
        Bottom line: Florence has the potential of being an historically powerful, destructive, and deadly storm. The hurricane forecasters – who do this for a living – were seriously spooked 72 hours before her (predicted) arrival. Weather being what it is and all, no one can be 100% sure of what will happen. But the educated “guesses” are scary.
        In early 2011, a blizzard was predicted for our area. The weather guys were really adamant that we were going to get hit hard. My husband, who is a truck driver, had already left for the week and was 2 1/2 hours from home when the first weather predictions came in. He told his boss he was heading back home…”If I’m going to be stranded somewhere, I’d rather be stranded at home.” His boss laughed at him, but let him go.
        It started snowing the next afternoon. 24 hours later, we had 2 feet of snow on the ground. It took us 2 days to clear the driveway…which was fine, because the US highway we live on wasn’t even visible for about 36 hours.
        My point is, I guess, that even though they get it wrong sometimes, there are times when the forecasters are spot on. Harvey is still fresh on everyone’s mind…so when they say that this is likely to be North Carolina’s Harvey – I really doubt that they would say that lightly. Praying that everyone in Florence’s path will heed the warnings and get out of harm’s way – NOW.

        Like

  11. smiley says:

    INSURANCE tips…

    Liked by 4 people

    • Concerned Virginian says:

      Take photos or a video of the interior and exterior of your house. Save the photos or video to a flash drive or to a cloud service. Call your homeowner’s insurance company and give them a heads-up. Have a copy of the Deed to your house with your important papers that you pack in your BugOutBag.
      Flood insurance, if you don’t have it already, is not available for purchase with instant coverage. Federal government rules are you have to wait 30 days before flood insurance becomes effective. Most homeowner’s insurance policies carry some type of wind/hail damage coverage (minus the deductible).
      TODAY is the day to get gas for the car, make sure the tires are OK, pack it with your suitcases, emergency evacuation supplies, precious family mementoes/photos WELL-WRAPPED and in a box so they don’t break, have the GPS ready to go or have old-fashioned maps at hand.

      Like

    • MaineCoon says:

      I posted that several times already, thank you. We Treepers are on the ball!

      Like

  12. youme says:

    Like

  13. Concerned Virginian says:

    Ground report, Durham County NC:
    Had to go to 3 gas stations before finding one that still had gas. Lowe’s a Bedlam. People scarfing up batteries, wood, bags of paver sand to use as sandbags. CVS/Walgreens running out of water etc. as the grocery stores are out as of this AM. People in line at checkout talking about how this will be either a repeat or worse than Floyd, Fran, Hazel.
    Accuweather stating that there may well be 40+ inches of rain in the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area on up to the mountains with significant URBAN flooding in addition to streams, rivers, low lying properties, etc.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. redline says:

    We’ve all seen this enough to know:

    Structural impacts will be severe. Roads and other civil facilities may be heavily damaged or demolished, and until those are fixed, gas leaks will be an issue. Until the safety of the gas services can established, electricity will be out. And until electricity is restored, municipal water and well pumps won’t be operating, unless you have a fueled and working generator to power your pump.

    Recovery will seem to be endless. Two or three weeks in, the problems will feel permanent to those who stayed, but less so to those who get out NOW and then come back, with sweat and energy and resources, to help rebuild.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Ziiggii says:

    Like

  16. Ziiggii says:

    Like

  17. Pam says:

    SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…27.1N 66.2W
    ABOUT 370 MI…595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 845 MI…1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

    Like

  18. Pam says:

    I have absolutely no interest in seeing those models anymore. No matter what is said, it’s obvious none of these so called “experts” have any idea where this storm is going. The best thing to do really is to follow advice of our local officials and meteorologists along with keeping an eye on updates from the National Hurricane Center.

    Liked by 2 people

    • MaineCoon says:

      You have a good point. Tomorrow will narrow it down alot. Stay safe.

      Like

    • dayallaxeded says:

      Where and what do you think the locals and meteorologists are getting their info? GFS & EUMWF (sp.?) are consistently in the ballpark, though of course they get much more accurate as the storm gets closer. If I was anywhere near predicted tank for this beast, I’d be checking every update, while prepping. The EU model has been doing better recently, but I think it’s better to use both + satellite & radar to interpolate most likely path.

      Like

  19. Concerned Virginian says:

    GOD HELP US, here’s President Trump speaking about the upcoming catastrophe of Florence and some IDIOT REPORTER asking the first question is all about “Well, what about the bad job the government did about helping after the storm hit Puerto Rico?” DAMN IT.

    Like

  20. Ziiggii says:

    Like

  21. bflyjesusgrl says:

    Harvey survivor here. The way the storm hovered for days dropping sooo much water with nowhere to go, decimating a 500+yr flood plan. That’s what surprised even the best of planners. Thousands of folks forced to flee normally non flood prone areas, go to higher ground, then flee again and again. One year later people are still recovering. Please leave while you can, stay safe. I offer continued prayers that Florence will breakup and dissipate quickly, causing no hurt, harm, or danger to anyone. I pray the blood of Jesus will provide wisdom, strength, provision, and protection to all in the storm’s path, in Jesus’ name, Amen.

    Liked by 6 people

  22. lurker2 says:

    Ziigii was it you who put up the GOES link a week or two ago? I’m stuck on that site now. I think this is Florence here: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=27N&lon=66W&band=03&length=180 It’s breathtaking.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. smiley says:

    this is a nauseating thought..

    ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Elist%3Atropicalupdate%3Athe_latest_weather_news&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fspaghettimodels.com%2F

    Like

    • smiley says:

      wrong image posted above there…don’t know how that happened…plse ignore it..

      this is what I meant to post related to Isaac

      latest GFS showing Isaac could be dragged into this mess if Florence keeps lingering in the Atlantic…steering Isaac north.

      please NOT !!

      Like

  24. smiley says:

    if this posts correctly, it shows the wind shear eating away at the SW quadrant of the thing, about 4 hrs ago…

    Like

  25. Ziiggii says:

    Like

  26. Pam says:

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…27.5N 67.1W
    ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 785 MI…1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES

    Like

  27. Pam says:

    Like

  28. Pam says:

    Like

  29. Pam says:

    Sorry about the 5pm track being posted twice.

    Like

  30. Keln says:

    I am nice and safe in Austin, TX right now. But my wife is freaking out back in the DC area, and pretty sure my flight through Charlotte on Friday will likely be cancelled. Hurricanes are so annoying sometimes.

    Anyways, remember folks, it’s the water that kills, not the winds. Be safe.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. Minnie says:

    Prayers for all in her path.

    The video feeds, twits, etc. are horrendous and nauseating.

    Similar to watching a train wreck, with no ability to stop it.

    Also praying this Monster does not become the benchmark for Storm of the Century.

    Until we learn how to assist directly and/or indirectly, prayers continue.

    Like

  32. I went to 4 gas stations trying to get gas in the Tidewater area. All out of gas. Finally found one. Shelves are bare in the food stores.

    Like

  33. Redhotrugmama says:

    Hi are any treepers here in newport news va? Asking as my elderly father is there

    Like

    • Abster says:

      I’m in Richmond, Va. Did hear multiple shelters opening in Newport News on Wednesday.

      Like

    • Concerned Virginian says:

      Is your father by himself? Is he in an evacuation area? Is he safe where he is? Here in Durham County NC one can call 911 and speak with someone about emergency services getting you out of your house if you’re handicapped/elderly/unable to drive etc.
      I heard radio reports all day today about how emergency services will be able to get to people still in their homes UNTIL the winds are 50mph sustained; at that point it won’t be feasible.

      Like

    • From the Newport News Twitter Feed: Call 311 or 933-2311 for Shelter information.

      Like

    • redhotrugmama says:

      Thanks everyone. I think we have things handled (tough to do being 2K miles away). My concern is the heat if the power goes out as he has congestive heart failure (he was on life support for 3 weeks back in april and thankfully survived).

      Like

  34. JAS says:

    If you can, LEAVE. Safest place close by will be north of the Blue Ridge. The mountains will stop most of the rain.

    Like

    • covfefe999 says:

      Interesting. What does a hurricane do when it encounters mountains?

      Like

      • fuzzi says:

        It slooows down…

        Like

      • JAS says:

        Mountains break up the circulation and updraft. Hurricanes hitting taller mountains > 4000ft go than fast. from 150 mph to 70 or so in a 2-3 hours. Happened to Maria in Puerto Rico last year. Mountains are devastating to hurricanes.

        But, the rain side is extremely dangerous. The lee side is pretty safe because the mountains block both the wind and a lot of the rain. The lee side of the Blue Ridge in this case is the northern facing sides depending on which side of the hurricane circulation you happen to be.

        Like

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