New York Fed Now Projects 3.9% GDP Growth in Fourth Quarter…

Another week – another set of weekly economic data – another upward forecast of anticipated 4th Quarter GDP growth.  Two weeks ago the Fed raised the 4th quarter growth projection to 3.2%. Last Week they revised that up to 3.8%. This week they have revised it upward again to 3.93%

Oh, the winning…. squeeze the kids.  REMEMBER:

…”Hold on to your economic britches peeps – throw dem ju-ju bones out the windows – grab hold of the young-un’s, squeeze em tight and introduce them to ‘capitalism unchained’. We are in uncharted MAGA territory now. Q4 will be well beyond 3.2% 3.8%  3.9%… Well Beyond.”…

MAGAnomics is a generally common sense approach toward achieving dynamic growth in the U.S. economy. Left-leaning U.S. economic experts (most of them) are gnashing their teeth as the America-First MAGAnomic principles are paying YUGE initial dividends.

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This entry was posted in Budget, Donald Trump, Economy, media bias, Taxes. Bookmark the permalink.

133 Responses to New York Fed Now Projects 3.9% GDP Growth in Fourth Quarter…

  1. smartyjones1 says:

    Oh my goodness, this stupendous! Knocking on the door of a 4.0% GDP!
    WoW! That’s completely insane to even be in the ballpark. I don’t know what’s sustainable but no one thought America would be knocking on the door in the fourth quarter, especially after suffering two major hurricanes in Florida and Texas the prior quarter.

    I’d like to learn more of the drivers but I’d expect minerals and manufacturing re: industrial production are banging it out right now.

    Liked by 12 people

    • wheatietoo says:

      Our President has been slashing Regulations and cutting red tape.

      He has basically taken the tourniquet off and is letting the life-blood flow back into our economy.
      This is the main ‘driver’ that is fueling this growth.

      Unleashing our Energy Sector is creating jobs and providing our businesses with the Certainty of an abundant fuel supply.
      Businesses like Certainty.
      It inspires them to expand…whereas Uncertainty causes them to withdraw.

      Our President has done this alone, without the help of Congress.

      People in the Stock Market have never seen anything like this.
      They are afraid to sell…because at the rate things are going, the price of buying back in would lose them whatever gains they made by selling.

      Just think what our President could get accomplished if he/we had a Congress that cared about this country as much as he does.

      Liked by 24 people

      • Sylvia Avery says:

        Also the trade deficit is lower overall. That makes a big difference. And PDJT and The Wolverines have just barely begun that fight. This is major league, industrial strength winning.

        Liked by 11 people

        • Tom says:

          Yep, this. As imports go down and exports go up, it has a doubling effect on the GDP calculation…ie imports are a drag on GDP, exports are a plus. Trump is creating a twofer…and the clueless “economic experts” couldn’t figure it out lol

          Liked by 1 person

          • Sylvia Avery says:

            Thanks Tom. I’m sure no economic expert !!!! and have paid almost no attention to the issue of trade in my lifetime, but I did recall reading somewhere, probably from Sundance, an explanation kind of like yours and it stuck with me that the trade deficit is far more important than I realized, but I sure couldn’t explain why.

            Your explanation is easy to understand and I may be able to remember it so I can dazzle my friends and relatives! Thanks again!

            Like

      • MVW says:

        This is not a bubble, it is basics being applied. Taking 0bama’s jackboot off the throat of America and American business.

        Liked by 5 people

      • Bud Klatsch says:

        I love how the depiction of POTUS Trump grows and grows while obama’s shrinks and shrinks!!! Hopefully obama’s legacy will shrink and shrivel and soon be forgotten as an incredible mistake in American politics.

        Liked by 1 person

      • BigMamaTEA says:

        wheatie the prophet (who doesn’t even know she is)

        Small business owners that I know and have talked to tell me…….(during Obie years)
        “I’m being strangled out here” or “I work on a long-term business forecast. I don’t care what taxes I have to pay, I just need to what they are going to be so I can plan” or “I can’t drill because of the {blankety-blank) lessor prairie chicken, or the DUNG beetle!”……..

        Are now saying “Merry Christmas” with ENTHUSIASM……Because the boots on the throat are beginning to lift.

        Liked by 2 people

    • Big Jake says:

      Oma had four quarters of 4% or greater (4.0, 4.0, 5.2). He NEVER had a string of three quarters of 3% or more. Keep it in context.

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

      Like

    • Kintbury54 says:

      This must torture the never Trumpers. He obviously doesn’t need the Senate and House and they had better wake up.

      Like

  2. zephyrbreeze says:

    “What Magic Want do you Have”? Obama questions Trump’s sanity.

    During a PBS town hall that aired Wednesday, Obama referenced Trump’s promise to bring back jobs to the United States when talking about manufacturing.

    “Well, how exactly are you going to do that? What exactly are you going to do? There’s no answer to it,” Obama said.
    “He just says, ‘Well, I’m going to negotiate a better deal.’ Well, what, how exactly are you going to negotiate that? What magic wand do you have? And usually the answer is, he doesn’t have an answer.”

    The video is stomach turning. Thank you God, for Pres. Trump!!

    Liked by 24 people

    • zephyrbreeze says:

      Happy days are here again. Our kid and grandkids are going to know what it was like to live during the days of Reagan.

      How soon will the MSM start call this, The Decade of Greed?

      Obams displays his ignorance about manufacturing. Cringeworthy.

      Liked by 9 people

      • DebbieUK says:

        Obama just shrugs his shoulders and makes excuses.What a downer.
        Trump is showing what he is doing . Obama only knows about subsidies which line the pockets of the already wealthy .I forgot how depressing it was to listen to him.

        Liked by 12 people

        • Archie says:

          Running the country and the economy was above his pay grade.

          Liked by 13 people

        • olderwiser21 says:

          Debbie – I CAN’t listen to him – I can barely stand to see his picture anywhere…..your observations are accurate…

          Liked by 10 people

          • Dekester says:

            O21,

            My sentiments exactly. Years ago it was suggested that I read a couple of books, one was “ power v force” the other “ truth v falsehood”

            PDJT exudes power, the imposter achieved everything by force.

            PDJT is Truth , the imposter is all falsehood.

            Reading these two books really opened my eyes. Intuitively I knew things were not right, but reading the material put forward in those two books, has rendered my tolerance for evil like the imposter to zero. The MSM too.

            I have been around the block a bit, and my career placed me in challenging situations regularly. Sadly I got to loathe more than a few folks.

            Yet I cannot think of a more sinister individual than your P44. The man is pure evil, and that so many Americans, and others idolized him. ( and still do.) simply reminds me of the weakness of the human psyche.

            But not here at TCTH.

            God bless PDJT and thank you all.

            Liked by 5 people

          • shirley49 says:

            Obama is nothing but a big fat loser along with a big fraud.

            Like

          • grlangworth says:

            Please. Do not bring yourselves down with Obama. A politician extraordinaire with sub-human intelligence. Typical.

            Like

      • tigsmom says:

        This moron didn’t read PDJT’s books. I bought many Presidential copies of “The Art of the Deal” last year. They will be held closely to be handed down to my Heirs.

        Liked by 2 people

      • yakmaster2 says:

        WHEN was this town hall? He’s talking as if he’s still the President, so was this during the 2016 Campaign? And even if it was, why would anyone listen to a lame duck? He was on his way out the door after 8 years of lousy GDP!

        Liked by 1 person

      • BeePee says:

        Hillary campaigned against jobs in West Virginia. Obama now campaigns against jobs in the whole country. No wonder we lost so many jobs during his 8 years. He has an ideology that the US is not supposed to have jobs. So he would have taken steps to eliminate jobs even if they came. And maybe he did. After all, how evil and ‘right wing’ it would be for a capitalist country to be prosperous.

        Liked by 1 person

    • RedBallExpress says:

      Was Obama auditioning for “Praire Home Companion”?

      Liked by 7 people

      • Cuppa Covfefe says:

        Faerie Home Companion.

        Along with Moonbeam, Liarwatha Fauxchontas, Schumer, Lindseed, McStain, and the Hill-The-BEASTie…

        Like

      • Barry the Magic Puffer.

        Liked by 7 people

      • jmuniz1 says:

        We need to take control of the State Party. Our President is going to undo 25 years of Progressive policies done by both parties. Each of you need to take control of your states party. Because after 8 years who is going to be in power. Mike Pence? He is another Bush. We cannot have that because it will eventually lead to another Obama.

        Liked by 8 people

        • piper567 says:

          I vote for Mulvaney…he has it all.

          Liked by 7 people

        • rashamon says:

          We certainly need to “grow” some Trump-style contenders for political offices. J.B. Pritzker, who claims he overcame serious deprivation when his dad died and, therefore, has a special place in his heart for those who are down and out, is running for governor of Illinois.

          Sorry, Charlie, your family tops the Forbes list of multi-billionaires in the U.S. and any deprivation you suffered was from remarkable arrogance and family disfunctioin. That is NOT a business person who should be the profile for our future. It’s simply a re-do of that Rockefeller, Kennedy and Bush-esque mentality that has left so many as servants to the elites.

          As jmuniz1 notes, we need to start building a powerhouse from the local, municipal and state level where the people involved understand one does not have an endless pool of money…someone has to pay the tab at the end of the night. Nor does making another rule, law, regulation guarantee more security for building a future. Entrepreneurs need stability beyond that 5-year-plan taught in business school. Those who survive the planned, devised ups-and-downs of our marketplace have billions with which they can play and wait out the mess they stage to grab more power.

          Our present politicians are clueless.

          Liked by 4 people

          • jmuniz1 says:

            Rashamon your are absolutely correct. Im working with some real conservatives who have had enough of both parties and we are trying to take control of the state legislature. However, its to complicated to explain. You need to remember that anyone running from the senate conservatives fund is a open borders Rino. Vote for the politician that has the least amount of money and that both parties hate. Like Roy Moore in Alabama. We need him because our President might be picking up three supreme court justices. Those bastards that he ran against are not republicans they are mainline open border TPP voting Democrats except for Rand Paul but he is starting to piss me off. This was supposed to be Hilder Beasts election and Trump entered the race I know he was going to win. I’ve been waiting for this oppurtunity for 15 years.

            Liked by 2 people

        • WSB says:

          If PT does not have faith in Pence at the end of eight years, he will definitely let us know.

          Liked by 3 people

          • jmuniz1 says:

            I’m not taking any chances the people that are helping me worked for Nixon, Reagan and Bush 1. They said Reagan hated Bush but he had to endorse him because it was about the party. Bush undermined everything that Reagan did and the Clintons continued and Bush 2 continued and Obama almost finished us off. We need to clean up the parties asap. The Kochs donated to everyone accept Trump. They even donated to Hillary Clinton.

            Liked by 3 people

            • WSB says:

              Honestly, with President Trump understanding everything you just posted, he will know how to preserve his agenda after he leaves office.

              If Pence is not on board, I have no doubt that President Trump will steer us to a better successor.

              Like

      • Cuppa Covfefe says:

        If Hill and Bill are involved, it’s Magick… Black Magick…

        Liked by 1 person

    • Disgusted says:

      He just does not sound like the typical guy who grew up in Indonesia now that he’a developed his phony urban twang, does he? So difficult for me to continue listening. YUCK!

      Liked by 1 person

    • Curry Worsham says:

      Liked by 5 people

    • wodiej says:

      Just because he had no clue what he was doing doesn’t reflect on Donald Trump’s ability.

      Like

    • ok4ayl says:

      Don’t you just love his phony cadence, that black preacher effect….LMAO….He couldn’t get a 10Q completed on time if he was CEO of a small public Company….What a maroon, to quote Bugs Bunny!

      Liked by 1 person

  3. MAGADJT says:

    We have to pray that each day, thousands of Obama-bots are being red pilled and the scales removed from their eyes to see that PDJT is working in the best interests of all citizens. Hopefully more of them will vote for MAGA candidates in 2018 and vote for PDJT again in 2020

    Liked by 10 people

  4. Southpaw says:

    Consumer spending going strong. Buy Made in USA gifts whenever possible.

    Liked by 9 people

    • rashamon says:

      Yes, Buy America. And we should have a Buy Your Local Small Business celebration once a week. Keeping major manufacturing as well as more minor industries in the U.S. is a SECURITY issue. We are at risk when we have to go outside our governance for critical materiel. But, it also includes the smallest purchase. Gofer U.S.A.

      Liked by 5 people

  5. Businesses thrive and grow under stable, predictable conditions. Right?

    When someone with a good track record states clearly what the conditions are going to be of course they begin to make pro-growth business decisions that fuel the economic engine.

    Is this not what we have the honor of witnessing now?

    Liked by 11 people

  6. sundance says:

    Liked by 18 people

    • dufrst says:

      He’s absolutely right. Check the record on major tax cuts. Every president that has gotten one through, has won re-election! Trump knows this and who could Dems possibly run against Trump in 2020 (please stay vigilant during 2018 election)? MAGA!!

      Liked by 1 person

    • Pam says:

      The man is very confident and it shows. You know the swamp must be quaking in their boots right about now.

      Nope, not tired of winning yet!

      Like

    • Cuppa Covfefe says:

      “Sweeping aside Russia probe”… nothing like balanced reporting, eh Toledo11 ?

      “Saturday nights in Toledo Ohio is like being nowhere at all,
      All through the day how the hours rush by, you sit in the park and you watch the grass die.

      Ah, but after the sunset, the dusk and the twilight, when shadows of night start to fall.
      They roll back the sidewalk precisely at ten and people who live there are not seen again.”
      – John Denver

      Btw, I mean this to WTOL11, not the folks in Ohio and Toledo.
      I’d like to see C&O and OI back to their glory days (and OI back as an AMERICAN company)…

      Like

  7. CiscoKid says:

    As America’s GDP is approaching 3.9% under President Trump, EX-Has Been Obama is traveling to China and India with empty hands, nothing to offer and a legacy of failure.
    😂

    Liked by 14 people

  8. Running Fast says:

    Just attended a christmas parade and tree lighting in rural America… incredible. Merry Christmas everywhere. People in amazing spirits. Wonderful wonderful wonderful.

    Liked by 21 people

  9. Donna in Oregon says:

    Time for a meme with Obama singing to President Trump about his magical economic agenda.

    (Sung by the Police, “Every Little Thing s(He) Does Is Magic”

    Every little thing
    Every little thing
    Every little thing he does is magic magic magic
    Magic magic magic

    Hopefully Treepers with more talent than me will write the material….. 🙂

    Liked by 6 people

  10. Curry Worsham says:

    I think the President just got 10 feet taller!

    Liked by 4 people

  11. fleporeblog says:

    What is incredible about the NY Federal Reserve is the fact that they historically low ball their projections. Their final projection for the 3rd Quarter was 1.6%.

    https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

    We all know that the first release of the 3rd Quarter was 3.0%. That is a difference of 1.4%. The reason I want to point this out is because they haven’t changed their methodology. If they are predicting 3.9%, it really means we are closer to 5% or greater.

    If the 3rd Quarter ends at 3.4% (which could easily happen when it is revised one last time at the end of December) all we would need is the 4th Quarter hitting 4.3% for the 2017 GDP to hit 3% for the year.

    Keep in mind that Barry never reached 3% GDP for a year during his 8 miserable years. Our Lion 🦁 may and WILL accomplish that in his first year.

    Liked by 20 people

  12. lida rose says:

    I 💖 my President

    Liked by 9 people

  13. Curry Worsham says:

    Eventually…

    Liked by 6 people

  14. Troublemaker10 says:

    Liked by 7 people

  15. freq says:

    I’ll take 3.9%… even if it’s revised down a few tenths a of a point later… MAGA…

    Liked by 2 people

  16. Timmy-the-Ute says:

    Something is weird with Gallop’s polls. You don’t get 62% disapproval when the economy is booming, the Stock market is at record highs, and unemployment is low. I studied Political Science in college and have a B.A. with a minor in Economics. People don’t react to economic good news this way toward their Presidents. There is some major disinformation out there.

    Liked by 12 people

    • AndrewJackson says:

      I had the same thought when I saw that gallop poll. Didn’t pass the smell test. Would be interesting to see the numbers after passing tax cuts.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Curry Worsham says:

      Definitely an outlier. It keeps him below 40.

      President Trump Job Approval

      RCP Average………..39.9 56.4

      Gallup…………………. 33 62
      Rasmussen Reports 44 55
      Economist/YouGov 43 53
      Reuters/Ipsos………..38 57
      Quinnipiac……………..38 55
      NPR/PBS/Marist….. 42 54
      Harvard-Harris……….41 59

      https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

      Like

      • G. Combs says:

        Rasmussen is less bias but still bias left after Rasmussen sold the company and then got kicked off the board.

        From Rasmussen this is interesting:
        “…. 40% of all voters think Fox News should be the winner of the first annual Fake News Trophy.

        CNN is in second place with 25% support, followed by MSNBC (9%), ABC (4%), CBS (3%) and NBC (2%). Six percent (6%) say the award should go to someone else, and 11% are undecided.

        A closer look finds that while 53% of Democrats and a plurality (42%) of voters not affiliated with either major party declare Fox News the winner, just 24% of Republicans agree. Forty percent (40%) of GOP voters opt instead for CNN, a view shared by just 13% of Democrats and 24% of unaffiliateds.

        Republicans and unaffiliated voters are more critical of MSNBC than Democrats are, too. Views of the other networks are more comparable among the three groups…..” —- http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2017/the_winner_of_the_1st_annual_fake_news_trophy_is

        Like

    • treehouseron says:

      This is how I think about the polls.

      If I was getting paid big bucks to take polls, I’d give the people asking for the polls the results they want. If CNN is paying for a poll, they want it to damage the President or they won’t buy another one. If it’s low, they might buy another one and I make more money.

      Nobody can prove a poll is wrong, because there’s not going to be an election for 3 years. so they could say his approval is 1 percent or 99 percent and nobody can say any different.

      So why not just make the poll whatever you want?

      If you’re going to make it whatever you want… why even call anybody? Just write it out however you want.

      I honestly feel, and nobody can prove me wrong, that they don’t even take some of these polls. They just make up a number and report it as if they did the poll, and put the money in their pocket… and this cannot be proved, which is why they do it.

      Liked by 4 people

    • Sylvia Avery says:

      From article linked below from the American Thinker:

      “…many are embarrassed to admit to others the secret we carry around in our hearts like a treasure — we absolutely love Donald Trump.

      This is the reason Trump’s approval numbers are almost certainly way under-reported: who wants to admit that they love an uncouth, billionaire New York braggart who made his fortune by parlaying a “small” $150 million-dollar loan from dear old dad into a business that literally changed the skyline of the world’s greatest city? The answer, apparently is: millions…”

      http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/12/donald_trumps_secret_admirers.html

      Liked by 6 people

      • akearn says:

        Great and funny column, thanks for linking, SylviaA!

        Liked by 3 people

      • Donna in Oregon says:

        I get what you’re saying Sylvia, but I can’t seem to get past on the bad polling during the campaign and election. President Trump was always inaccurately polled and also the reports were not fair or accurate either.

        I just don’t have any faith, nor do I believe polls anymore.

        Liked by 2 people

      • G. Combs says:

        Professor_Fate @ American Thinker had a great description of OUR President Trump.

        “…He is unashamedly pro-America, pro-Christianity, heterosexual, irrereverent, plain speaking, contemptuous of fools and a remarkably successful business man. Best of all, he isn’t a smooth talking, unctuous, smarmy politician that we’ve all despised for so long. He’s smoked out every faux-Conservative pundit and exposed them for what they really are; snotty, blue nosed Brahmins with superiority complexes and contempt for the ‘deplorables’. He’s a breath of fresh air in the miasma that is the Washington, DC swamp which he is draining slowly, but surely….”

        Liked by 4 people

    • ktr says:

      that’s because of comments like this from Warren Buffet in August.”Warren Buffett: This doesn’t feel like a 3% GDP economy”. There’s audio at the link

      https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html

      Like

    • olderwiser21 says:

      Liars all! Pay no attention……

      Like

    • rightofb says:

      Thats because MSM does not show the numbers, they would rather talk about two scoops and Russia. People simply don’t know but it will eventually hit them

      Like

  17. Not tired of winning!

    Liked by 1 person

  18. joeknuckles says:

    So now the NFL is going to pull the money from breast cancer awareness programs and military charities and shift it to “social justice” organizations. Sure, that’ll solve their problems!

    Of course, there is no such thing as “social justice”, it is only a term used to justfy discriminating against white people. Also, those organizations already got billions from the various Obama slush funds.

    Liked by 6 people

  19. treehouseron says:

    God Bless a Business Man in the Presidency. Why oh Why did it take so long.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. wodiej says:

    Love the big chair Trump and little chair obama. lol…We needed someone very strong and experienced like Trump to bounce back from the havoc obama caused. People can try to pooh pooh Trumps’s success compared to obama’s failures but numbers don’t lie.

    Like

  21. Atticus says:

    I’m less than five years from retirement, but for the first time in many years, I’m excited for the youth of our Country. There’s a bright future ahead. Roll on MAGA train, ROLL ON!

    Liked by 2 people

  22. Rip Tide says:

    Her is some more anecdotal evidence. I am in the financial services industry and own my own business. In 2016 I had a 20% drop in income from 2015. It was a very frustrating year as it seemed that everyone I talked to was paralyzed by the election year uncertainty. I worked just as many hours as all the previous 16 years, but investors were just not confident.

    Fast forward to 2017. The year is not even finished yet, and my income is up 40% from 2016!! I do not take any credit for this. I have worked the same amount of hours, or maybe even less than last year. My clients are noticeably more confident, and referrals are steady. People are excited about the direction we are going, and the mall is even packed.

    President Trump and his team are doing a fabulous job, despite almost complete opposition. The hand of God is on him, and He has heard our prayers. I continue to pray for our nation, and that truth will be revealed. I pray for justice to be served in this world, even though I am confident that final judgement will be extremely painful for all those who have done and continue to do evil in and to our country. Keep bringing it everyday Treepers! The Trump train is just shifting gears.

    Merry Christmas everyone.

    Liked by 3 people

  23. C R Lord says:

    As the president keeps on winning that picture should change. Obama should be getting smaller and smaller until he disappears completely. The President should be growing from where he is in the picture to huge beyond belief.

    Like

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