Atlanta Fed Estimates U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Growing at 4.0 percent…

“It can’t be done”, they said. “There’s no way Trump can achieve 4.0% economic growth” they said.  The Congressional Budget Office said economic projections were “improbable”, they said….  “Impossible”, they said.

Yeah, well, Donald Trump said: “Impossible is just the starting point“.  And now:

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is on track to expand at a 4.0 percent annualized pace in the third quarter with inventory investment contributing 1.12 percentage points to growth, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed on Thursday. (read more)

How is this possible?  Well, if you’ve never had to wash your hands with Lava – it might seem impossible.  For those who have washed with Lava, it’s simple common sense.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, is the growth in value of all goods and services produced within the economy over a specified period of time.  A key part of that equation is the sum total of exported goods minus imported goods is part of the measure.  Only the stuff created in the U.S. increases the growth dynamic.  If you import more, the GDP shrinks.  It’s simple arithmetic.

If you grow exports, and maintain a constant on imported products, the net lowering of the trade deficit adds to GDP growth. It’s not a hard equation.  If our economy is making more stuff, our economy is growing.

Here’s the part a few of us have been talking about for a long time, and more recently when candidate Trump announced his economic plans we immediately saw the common sense behind the strategy.

Specifically within the Energy sector, Obama’s policies were shutting down energy development.  Coal mines shut down; pipelines stopped; natural gas permits held up; etc.  The sum impact was higher energy costs and more reliance on imports of foreign oil etc.   Importing energy resources shrinks the domestic economy (we ain’t making it) and lowers the GDP (we’re importing it).

Enter Trump.

President Trump unleashes the energy sector.  Coal mines reopened (energy coal and metallurgy coking coal), pipelines approved, and LNG (liquified natural gas) permits and pipelines fast-tracked, and permits for new refineries approved.  In addition to ongoing oil exploitation, the entire energy sector was quickly unleashed.

But wait, it went further.

President Trump’s energy policy initiatives took energy dependence (importing), and within months began skyrocketing toward energy independence.

But wait, it went further.

Enter Commerce Secretary Wilbur “Wilburine” Ross.

Together with President Trump, Secretary Wilbur Ross immediately began reaching out to allied nations for energy export agreements.  Within months coal (coking and energy coal) was being exported to Asia and Europe.  Massive increases in exports.

Within a few more months LNG contracts were written and approved and natural gas began being exported to Asia and Europe.   Ireland just signed a big contract  (€338,000,000) for massive shipments of Texas LNG.

Early agreements with the Arab States (Gulf Cooperation Council) to negotiate oil production levels in exchange for assistance with their domestic security initiatives (weapons sales), in combination with agreements with Emmanuel Macron (France) to drive production in Libya and North Africa, kept global oil supplies flowing.  In conjunction with our North American production increases, this energy approach has kept oil prices lower.

[It didn’t hurt to have the former CEO of Exxon-Mobil, Rex Tillerson, as our Secretary of state either.  It wasn’t his first Arabian sword dance. Almost like a plan. Much to the angst of Russia, Iran and Venezuela – go figure.]

You might have missed it, but we went straight past Memorial Day 2017 and instead of gas prices increasing, we saw them continue to drop.  First time in decades for lower gas prices at the pumps during peak summer gas use.

MagaSuperWonderWinning.

Back to the GDP growth.  Remember the equation.  Production exports minus imports are part of the bottom line GDP total. Trump’s energy sector policy specifically began increasing the export part of the energy sector.  Yes, we are exporting massive amounts of coal (both kinds), and liquified natural gas (LNG).

Every metric tonne of those exports lowers the trade deficit; and as a consequence increases the GDP.

But wait, it gets better.

This is new ground. “Exporting Energy” is an entirely new sector of economic activity.  All prior historic energy sector reference within our economy has been lowering GDP growth because we imported energy raw material (oil), and never utilized our own resources as offsets.

So yeah, the folks who wash calluses with Lava totally understand that 4% GDP growth is entirely reasonable with an entire new sector of the economy contributing toward it.  Heck, we predicted exactly this – and more.

[…]  Remember, when Donald Trump proposed his 2015 economic and tax platform? Every pundit with a microphone said Trump’s projected four percent growth was a pipe-dream. Now, amid many influential circles, there’s actually white paper discussion looking beyond that original Trump proposal and stating that six percent, seven percent and even higher economic expansion is entirely possible, if not – predictable.

Get ready….. but don’t get so busy that you forget to look around while this is happening. We are living inside history, and the journey is infinitely more fun than the destination.

America, we deserve this…

(2016 – link)

trump workers

 

  • Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering, efficiency superiority and overall quality. They didn’t blow every PhD intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY….

  • When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take 5 years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in 10 months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

  • When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved everyone of them….

That’s our America.

  • When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his seven virgins, began opening fire on a train in France, the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable storyline that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s Make America Great Again”.  Swagger on !

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This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Economy, energy, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

210 Responses to Atlanta Fed Estimates U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Growing at 4.0 percent…

  1. tonyE says:

    When we immigrated legally into the USA back in the early 70s (my wife’s family at the same year as mine too!) we didn’t come for the welfare payments or handouts from the Gov.

    Our families had it made back at home (both of us)… businesses, land, money, good education, large extended families running the businesses, networks of friends and businessmen… in short, we had it made without any assistance from the public sector.

    Why then did we leave? Freedom. Simple, we were tough, we are tough. We knew it would be really very hard but it was completely worth it. I cleaned toilets part time while in High School, but it was an honest job. Freedom from the expectations from generations of history behind you. The feel of FREEDOM, the foreboding I felt in my bones for the whole year before I got on that plane and flew to God Knew What was amazing. We spoke no English. We still got lots of family back in the old countries… they are tough too, they have it made as good or better than that, but their sense of adventure is simply not as deep as ours, they are beholden to 100s of years behind them, we made ourselves, by ourselves.

    If anything I can say about American Culture is… ADVENTURE (*). The idea that we can always do better. And that, my friends, is what is so wonderful about this country. Our country now. ;-D

    I don’t need no Obolas telling me I didn’t build that… I worked two jobs to buy my house.. what did HE do? What did Hillary ever do?

    MAGA

    (*) OK according to my mom the cigarettes are much better here… and I did love American chewing gum. 😉

    Liked by 8 people

  2. unconqueredone says:

    When I see the photo of Trump with the hat, I hear the line from Men In Black “I make this look good”!

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Convert says:

    But Americans will never hear about this stuff unless they watch one of the business channels. 😣

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Donna in Oregon says:

    When Ronald Reagan was President the media hated him too. So did the Loons, the same weirdos we have today. I grew up to riots in the streets.

    These days are not even close to what I’ve witnessed in my lifetime.

    We didn’t need business channels or anyone else to explain what we can see for ourselves. Prosperity is easy to notice. Even stupid people figure it out.

    We are on our way back in time…..when Made in America was a symbol of pride. Enjoy new words like craftsmanship, lifetime warranty. How about safety? How about food that isn’t grown with sewage water? Dog food with deadly chemicals. Baby toys with lead. Chemicals that aren’t labeled properly…..and on and on. Control of our own markets.

    This is going to be awesome.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. jeans2nd says:

    “President Trump unleashes the energy sector.”

    Remember all the robe-rending angst re: Mr. Trump’s support for ethanol subsidies circa Dec 2015?

    Donald Trump in Iowa: I Love Ethanol
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/13/donald-trump-iowa-love-ethanol/

    Professional Pandering – Desperate Cruz, Dependent on Iowa, Flip-Flops on Ethanol Subsidies…
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/06/professional-pandering-desperate-cruz-dependent-on-iowa-flip-flops-on-ethanol-subsidies/

    Good times, good times…

    Kinda splains this, huh?

    Those hard hat bumper stickers we handed out Mar 2016 went to many recently furloughed fracking guys.

    Like

  6. Gov Jay says:

    So much for the Marxist community organizer telling us that 2.0% was the new norm…

    Liked by 1 person

  7. James O'Malley says:

    I’m hoping someone can help me with this.

    I have liberal friends who are EXTREMELY insistent that the current economic growth is due to Obama and “just took time to happen.”

    Right.

    But how do you counter this argument? I’ll likely never convince them, but I’m curious nonetheless how’d I’d argue my point.

    Like

    • Your Tour Guide says:

      Heard the same thing last week at work. They also insisted that
      unemployment was at a RECORD LOW under Obama!!!

      The most brainwashed of my co workers are from Jamaica. A
      shame, because most of them are truly nice people. But every
      lie uttered by Obama or by his backers they buy without any
      questions.

      Like

  8. millwright says:

    I believe we can all agree energy is the key element to economic development of every nation. I would like to see our President institute a “crash program ” to develop cache nuclear power ala a thorium reactor. Such plants have a very small environmental and physical footprint and can be manufactured on an assembly-line basis in ordinary facilities, shipped by conventional means and rapidly assembled on sites prepared with local resources. Best of all, these generations of nuke power are “fail-safe” . If we use our own needs to ramp up both design and production these units are yet another economic arrow in our quiver . But here’s no doubt #45 is highballing our economic engine right now ! So look for a lot of “uniparty and “alt left media opposition !

    Like

  9. Liz says:

    Living in California we see zero recovery. It’s only going to get worse. Why Sessions has decided to withhold money instead of arresting the politicians creating this mess is beyond me. Certainly not protecting the citizens who have suffered the most instead he’s going to allow more suffering..There is zero reason to give our west coast to Mexico…

    Like

  10. unconqueredone says:

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1295/7985/products/

    29513_PT02_large.jpg?v=1502287251

    Like

  11. Dazza says:

    There it is, GDP for Q2 revised up to 3% this morning and on the way to 4% in Q3.
    Thank you Sundance. This is such a big change of direction that virtually nobody in the Investment industry knows about the huge impact on GDP. The whole thing has been very well thought out by PDJT of course, but the Admin is keeping it low profile for the element of surprize, I feel.

    Thank God for PDJT, the Lion!

    Like

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