Remarkable Jobs Growth Continues – Economists Struggling to Quantify Growth…

According to ADP payroll processing U.S. private employers are estimated to have added 263,000 jobs in March.  This is likely more than the number employers hired in February and well above economists’ expectations.  This is the largest anticipated job growth in the past two years.

The earlier forecast by ADP National Employment Report estimated growth of 187,000 jobs, with median-range economic estimates spanning 110,000 to 225,000.  The current report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

The U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report comes out on Friday and will include both public and private-sector employment.  Economists polled by Reuters were looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 175,000 jobs in March, less than the 227,000 in February – so the 263,000 estimate has caught them off guard.  The ADP results are much stronger (100,000 more) than anticipated.

That said, the unemployment rate is forecast to stay the same at 4.7 percent despite more than 100k jobs above the 150k number needed to absorb inbound new workers.

This means approximately 100k of the new job hires are people who were previously not considered to be “unemployed”, or recorded in the unemployment stats.   In short, people are going back to work who had dropped out of the labor force.

We have continued to outline a “new dimension” in American economics which is resulting from President Trump’s focus on main street economic priorities within his economic policies.   Modern economists are perplexed with the main street impacts because they are generationally focused on economic policy benefiting Wall Street.

Trump has uncoupled the Main Street economic engine from Wall Street policy; and as a direct result the traditional metrics are incapable of quantifying economic growth.  This report from the Associated Press provides an example of the cognitive disconnect:

[…]  The data also indicates that hiring remains strong even though growth appeared to slow in the January-March quarter. Many economists estimate that the economy grew at roughly a 1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. That would be half the 2.1 percent pace in last year’s fourth quarter.

The ADP report “is clearly another indication that, despite the apparent slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter, labor market conditions have remained unusually strong,” Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a forecasting firm, said.  (link)

A perfect encapsulation of our prior predictions.  Main Street GDP is expanding under President Donald Trump – actual stuff, preparatory stuff, to build other stuff (end products) is getting built.   This is the hidden and unquantifiable infrastructure cycle of a manufacturing economy being restarted.

Before you can make the stuff, you first have to assemble the capability to create the stuff.  In the infrastructure of manufacturing assembly cycle, economic activity (expenditures, payrolls, investments, purchases) are being made that are not quantified under traditional GDP measures.

The quantifiable economic tools are geared toward measuring a service industry economic model.  Only the end product activity is measured within that modern GDP equation.  Current economic statisticians are incapable of quantifying the new GDP because their analytic tools are geared toward Wall Street measures and do not quantify the investment expenditures as part of the GDP growth.

Those who quantify economic activity, cannot see the economic activity that is driving the jobs growth in this pre-manufacturing resurgence and investment cycle.

I hope that explainer makes sense….

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78 Responses to Remarkable Jobs Growth Continues – Economists Struggling to Quantify Growth…

  1. ZZZ says:

    General Electric just laid off more white collar workers last week than Carrier did last June.

    Anyone?

    Like

    • ALEX says:

      Has no bearing on anything. Companies will go out of business and be created like always.

      Liked by 10 people

      • Peg_C the Deplorable says:

        Progress requires creative destruction. Lefties lose their minds over the “destruction” part, thus they reject the “creative” part. Meanwhile their policies truly DO destroy.

        Liked by 1 person

    • wolfmoon1776 says:

      People committed to the globalist plan began accelerating their export of jobs from America before the election, and definitely before the inauguration. GE seems to be in that camp, IMO.

      Liked by 7 people

    • annieoakley says:

      GE moved to China around 2009.

      Liked by 7 people

    • chiefworm says:

      Maybe GE isn’t going to continue to get the sweetheart deals that they had under Obummer. You know, like paying no (or GREATLY REDUCED to next to nothing) taxes. Maybe it needs just a few less tax attorneys? Or maybe it was just getting rid of people who don’t do anything. Businesses will contract and expand their workforce as the current economy dictates. More people needed for making stuff means an increase in “blue-collar” workers. To keep profits high there is a reduction in the “white collar” work force.

      Like

      • lvdancer says:

        We have been paying for them TO LEAVE the USA under Bush and Obama. Look it up!
        Taxpayer money helping them to un-employ American citizens and giving them moving money plus tax benefits! NWO, indeed.

        Liked by 1 person

    • indiana08 says:

      There are a lot of reasons why companies lay off people.

      Liked by 2 people

    • LoveofUSA says:

      Simple—-
      White Collar Vs Blue Collar
      Service Economy Vs Manufacturing Economy
      Elites Vs Middle Class
      Globalist vs Nationalist
      Anti-America Vs MAGA
      Have fun adding to this list—
      (also-Losers Vs Winners-Ha)

      We stumbled onto this site in July 2015 and never left it since.
      We are first time posters here.
      Sundance= lifeguard who kept millions from insanity, including us from Calif.
      We are ever grateful for Sundance and his excellent, “eye on the ball” articles.
      We took in Treepers as our family: smart, witty. and love of God.
      Only bright and clear-thinking Treepers understand Sundance’s and other Treepers thinking.
      Why?
      We Are Sundance.
      We Are Treepers.
      We Are Breitbart.
      We Are Trump.
      We Are Americans.
      You”re covered in prayers…
      Stay the course….

      Liked by 3 people

    • Were those employees overstaff? Were those jobs shipped overseas? Did that division close? There are a few reasons why lay-offs occur. The one to worry about (in my mind) is the migration of those jobs overseas.
      There is one other reason for the lay-offs – were those employees replaced with H1-B visa holders? You’ve got to have a context for those job losses before we start getting pissed or freaking out.

      Like

    • ExmilUK says:

      Which GE, GE Capital (Finance) or traditional GE (Electrical engineering & Manufacturing)?

      Like

  2. Craig W. Gordon says:

    My sector is as busy as ever. Time line: Obama elected 08 and things went south as soon as he took power.Fast forward to 2016 and literally the week after Trump is elected, the work starts pouring in. The clients have a toatlly different positive mindset now compared to the past 8 years of forced socialism. Its like a weight has been lifted off our shoulders.

    Liked by 14 people

  3. MK Wood says:

    “I hope that explainer makes sense….”

    Makes perfect sense. The means to produce need to be produced.

    Liked by 6 people

    • sundance says:

      Damn, should give you an easy button. Yup, that.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Tom says:

        You said: “Current economic statisticians are incapable of quantifying the new GDP because their analytic tools are geared toward Wall Street measures and do not quantify the investment expenditures as part of the GDP growth.”

        I have to disagree with this premise. The “new” GDP still requires CapEx, which is very much measured in GDP. As are the end products of coal mines, steel mills, rolling plants, wire manufacturers, etc. Almost all companies’ balance sheets and bank accounts are bare, very heavily loaded with debt, after the last 6 years of massive stock buybacks to “outperform” stock analyst expectations. Any CapEx or new employee expenditures will very likely require loans which would be captured in Wall Street data. Jamie Dimon came out earlier this week and said their loan book was down so they spent their loot on stock buybacks instead of productive investment. Your statement makes no sense to me in this context.

        Like

  4. Things are crazy busy with software development.

    Liked by 10 people

  5. fleporeblog says:

    Charles Payne had the following clip last night

    http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5386770232001/?#sp=show-clips

    According to former Dallas federal advisor, Danielle DiMartino Booth, the federal reserve under Yellen is trying everything they can to slowdown President Trump. As SD has pointed out numerous times in the past, there is nothing that the federal reserve can do to slow it down or cause a recession which they hope.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/03/15/fed-raises-interest-rate-a-quarter-point-nothing-changes/

    The problem for the federal reserve is that they are driven by Wall St. they have no comprehension of Main St. It is unbelievable how our President is able to continue to MAGA with all these forces working in direct opposition (federal reserve, GOPe, Uniparty, Democrats, Deep State, MSM, Obozo, Muh Russia etc).

    Charles’ show at 6:00pm on FBN has become must watch for me. Even more than Lou Dobbs right afterwards. He anticipates tomorrow’s job number to be 275,000. The other piece he shared that is just as important is the fact that those layer off seeking unemployment is at the lowest point since the 1970s (only 243,000 for the moth of March).

    Liked by 5 people

    • rashamon says:

      Question: what would happen to the student loan market if the loans were reanalyzed over the last twelve years of existence and refinanced to average out at one/two percent over prime during that time? Students would still be paying on their loans, which is teaching responsibility to make adults out of children, but not be stymied by extraordinary interest rates.

      I still don’t understand why, when the world banks were operating close to negative rates, the credit card companies were charging usury rates for loans. Maybe my brain just doesn’t work correctly in these matters, but the students are getting robbed by the government interfering in the curricula and administrative pricing at colleges while charging students for this “crappola” education which leads to nowhere jobs.

      Ideas?

      Liked by 1 person

      • rashamon says:

        On that note, why are the “Too Big To Fail” banks making so much off of these benefit cards that are easily run by rote…and check for fraud by rote. Except maybe the TBTF banks don’t want to reduce the number being serviced as they add to the bottom line? Just asking my Treepers for replies????

        http://prospect.org/article/how-big-banks-are-cashing-food-stamps

        Like

        • Your Tour Guide says:

          Friend used to manage for K Mart. Before they really started imploding , they
          issued Bank of America Credit lines, right before Christmas. He couldn’t
          figure out why. The store he was managing completely emptied out of high
          dollar big screen TVs and similar. The number of loan defaults was through
          the roof.

          Like

    • Sylvia Avery says:

      fleporeblog, YES! Love me some Charles Payne. I love Lou, but I learn an awful lot from Charles Payne. Highly recommend his show on FBN.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Grace Anne says:

    Love your posts!

    Liked by 1 person

  7. M33 says:

    Huh.
    Never had a thread deleted before.
    Will make sure to stay on topic.
    Sorry about that Sundance.

    Still, great article.
    As I’ve said elsewhere, our store is doing phenomenal.
    Feeling the Trump effect!!

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Derek Hagen says:

    It isn’t Trump that’s swooning.

    Like

  9. janc1955 says:

    Makes sense to me, SD, and explains a lot of the advertising activity I’m seeing online and on TV with regard to JOBS JOBS JOBS! Hopefully there’s quickly an equal amount of activity focused on training people for the jobs coming online, because I suspect we’re looking at yuge skill gaps … and we already seem to have a problem with that in the U.S.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. A.D. Everard says:

    In Australia, I am shocked and saddened by all the stuff made in China. Looking for power tools, I started checking – five different brands, including German and Japanese name-brands, and every one of them made in China. Nothing from Australia (although I did manage to get Australian made cupboards and shelving).

    Anyhow, we have no Donald Trump here, not yet, so I’m walking in the aisles and I’m thinking… “I wonder how long it will be before the USA starts exporting?”

    Seriously, if I can’t buy Australian, I want to buy “made in the USA”.

    Liked by 8 people

  11. CheshireCat says:

    ” Economists Struggling to Quantify Growth…

    They are most likely, right now, trying to develop a new math, maybe based on “Common Core” to make those great numbers seem bad. Maybe they will just divide everything by 10.and hope nobody notices.

    Like

  12. Rip Tide says:

    Imagine how good we would be doing if everyone was trying to help the President instead of obstructing him. Honestly, it is frustrating and disgusting to see so many Americans rowing in the wrong direction.

    Liked by 3 people

  13. Donna in Oregon says:

    I remember when President Reagan’s policies started working and jobs were everywhere after the Carter maliase. The media had to finally shut their pie holes because prosperity was the shiny object, and optimism and productivity was part of every day American life.

    Here we go again, I can’t wait!!

    Liked by 5 people

  14. alliwantissometruth says:

    Now, if we can just entice employers (handcuffs jingling) to hire American workers, we’ll be on our way

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Gil says:

    I find it very interesting to see these retailers that had just bloated their brick stores and didnt watch out fir online purchasing. Very surprised gymboree is on the list tho. The retail colkapse will affect 1000s, but lets hope that the improved manufacturing vs consumer economy will more than help everyone recover!
    https://www.google.com/amp/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/598005FE-1A24-11E7-A49C-FC6A226FDFDD
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-06/these-eight-retailers-will-file-bankruptcy-next-according-fitch

    https://www.google.com/amp/footwearnews.com/2017/business/retail/retail-bankruptcy-fashion-brands-retailers-chapter-11-2017-327878/amp/

    https://www.google.com/amp/www.palmbeachpost.com/business/retailers-bankruptcy-watch-for-2017/v62LKEfo2y3mFmmfGz4VxJ/amp.html

    Like

  16. Sylvia Avery says:

    But, but, but it has been three months already and President Trump hasn’t delivered a totally cured economy with a chicken in each pot and a car in every garage! How can that be? I am outraged! Why, I donated $20.00 to his campaign and put a sign in my yard! That’s IT! I am THROUGH with this poseur! Okay, in case it isn’t obvious I am being way sarcastic, and it felt pretty good after some of the stuff I have read in the last couple days. Sorry, probably juvenile. I’d do better to say nothing unless I have something nice to say. Truth is, I am thrilled about the economic news.

    Liked by 4 people

    • rashamon says:

      The gentleman has accomplished more than I imagined when I started pushing my contacts to get him to run as my New Year’s resolution. Be what it may, I can’t remember if it was Dec. 31, 2014 or Jan 1, 2015 when I started my private campaign. My sister-in-law reminds me of it every day as she can’t believe he’s in office. Boom!
      .
      One doesn’t have to love every moment of Donald J. Trump’s presidency to appreciate his resolve to bring back the foresight, courage and tenacity that helped his ancestors succeed and our ancestors forge a better life than was offered elsewhere. We are a nation of laws that were designed to protect all citizens, certainly, and all who chose and choose to join us by following such laws, are equally protected. Those laws are paramount to our success as a Constitutional Republic.

      We must tell him how important his leadership is and can be. Time for another postcard campaign? Pour your heart into it. I think snail-mail affords the heart of Americans.

      The White House
      1600 Pennsylvanis Ave NW
      Washington, DC 20500

      E-Mail:
      President: president@whitehouse.gov
      Vice President: vice_president@whitehouse.gov
      Comments: comments@whitehouse.gov.

      Phone Numbers
      Comments: 202-456-1111

      Liked by 1 person

  17. free` says:

    I would like to see Sundance and The Treehouse group do a study on why economists underestimate numbers when R’s are POTUS and overestimate when D’s are POTUS.
    By dishonestly reporting economic news it has a huge impact on the way people feel about the economy which has an impact on the stock market.
    I first noticed what they have been doing during President Bush’s terms in office.
    So I went back and looked and the media reported the estimate as higher than the actual numbers turned out to be during Clinton’s presidency.
    What are the odds that every estimate was higher than actual figures every month for D’s and lower every month for R’s?
    Just like this report today –
    Economists polled by Reuters were looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 175,000 jobs in March, less than the 227,000 in February – so the 263,000 estimate has caught them off guard. The ADP results are much stronger (100,000 more) than anticipated.

    Like

    • rashamon says:

      Because all our academics, including statisticians and think-tankers, since WWI are socialists pursuing the totalitarian dream. K.I.S.S.

      Like

      • rashamon says:

        The K.I.S.S. was meant in jest. It’s been a veeeeeery long day. I think GE’s and other multi-nationals reported false figures — American-based companies but employing overseers under different rules. I have seen so many distortions in these figures that I’ve stopped thinking them out to logical conclusions. Except for one; the American middle-class taxpayer has no control over this D.C.-based system

        Like

      • Gil says:

        Read “the forgotten man” by amity shlaes. Its a history told in fiction style that explains the era of the depression. You will see many parallels to today.

        Like

  18. thesitrep says:

    On Trump’s campaign rhetoric about bringing in new jobs, you’ll remember Obummer saying, “What’s he gonna do, wave a magic wand?”

    No Barry, Trump will just get out of the way and watch the “invisible Hand” work its magic.

    Nothing more definitively demonstrates Obama’s high school level naivete about economics and the grown-up world.

    Like

  19. dbethd says:

    “Remarkable Jobs Growth Continues – Economists Struggling to Quantify Growth…”

    It’s hard for them to measure Hope that the American people have of MAGA!

    Thank you for the explanation in this post . Makes sense to me!

    Like

  20. jbrickley says:

    Most businesses have been stuck in limbo for eight years. They have been hoarding cash, focusing on being more efficient and reducing costs. First it was all the regulations, then it was the Housing bubble burst and diving economy, then it was Obamacare, then more regulations both financial and environmental, then fear of the future. Trump’s just getting started, if he can get the taxes reduced and eliminate Obamacare and most of the regulations then business will start investing for a prosperous future. It will take time because business has been in survival mode for quite some time. I don’t hold GE accountable because they do what they must to survive. In retail, Sears and JCPenny made a lot of major mistakes and they might not exist in the near future. Yes, Amazon has made a dent but they did the damage to themselves long before. Business is born and it dies and it consumes other businesses this is normal. New business startups are stagnant as well as new entrepreneurs just starting out. It’s not just the Federal its the States too. Some states are losing small business at an alarming rate as well as tax payers.

    Business is responsible for itself but government market interference and heavy regulation and taxation strangles the economy in many seen and unseen ways.

    Kill Obamacare, Deregulate, Reduce Taxes: 3…2…1… BOOM Economy Experiences Explosive Growth the like of which we have not seen since 1985! Works every single time it’s been tried.

    Like

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