The media continues to sell a specific election narrative that’s in their best interests. To sell the narrative they generally rely on “Media Polls”. We had previously predicted the media polling would shift in the final two weeks, and they have.
This prediction was not because the media’s preferences have changed, nor is it because their pollsters are generating a variant data-set, but rather because empirical data within early state ballot and voting undermine (actually spotlight) the flaws in their biased media polling. In essence, if they continued to sell crazy it gets transparently easier to refute it.
Early voting and ballot request data is readily available within multiple states. However, it’s important to note Pennsylvania has ZERO early voting; and that’s important because it allows the media to retain a ruse in PA they simply cannot retain in states generating factual data (example Florida and North Carolina). So where do you see the national media selling a story…. oh yeah, Pennsylvania – go figure. See how that works?
Meanwhile FLEPOREBLOG continues to do yeoman’s work in providing data that tells the real story of what’s going on:
FLORIDA
Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27
◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)
◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)
NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:
#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082
You can see the 10/29 early vote counties heavily favor Trump. You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE –
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Rasmussen polling today, Democrats and Republicans are even in the crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC (I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 8%. If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted in so far:
R – 1,014,206 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 213,690 (I voting for Trump) +32,958 (Other voting for Trump) = 1,260,854 Total Votes
D – 1,002,481 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 182,033 (I voting for HRC) + 28,076 (Other voting for HRC) = 1,212,590
Trump = 51.0%
HRC = 49.0%
Note: I am taking the 8 point difference in Independents (much more conservative). SD last night stated that the difference among Independents is 14 points. If SD prediction is correct, the early vote tally would be as follows:
Trump = 51.5%
HRC = 48.5%
This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and after election night he won the state by less than 1 point. (LINK) Actual in person voting on the traditional election day, November 8th, will heavily favor Donald Trump.
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far and the fact that the 16 counties didn’t start early voting until the 29th of October (which favors Trump based on data above), I can now soundly say that we will win FL by 8 to 10 points (54.5 – 46.5)
More Specifically, people might be interested to see what’s going on in the key Democrat stronghold of Southeast Florida, Miami-Dade (Dade County). So lets take a closer look.
Dade County:
◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots
♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247
◊ 2016 General Early Voting
♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217
Rasmussen polling today, Democrats and Republicans are even in the national crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC and 12% D for Trump {I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 8%. If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted in so far:
R – 90,135 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 30,003 (I voting for Trump) + 1,765 (Other voting for Trump) = 121,903 Total Votes
D – 123,498 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 25,559 (I voting for HRC) + 1,504 (Other voting for HRC) = 150,561 Total Votes
Trump = 44.7%
HRC = 55.3%
At first glance Dade County might seem like Clinton is walloping Trump. However, factually she needs to. Actually she’s doing much worse than it appears.
2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County
B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606
Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%. Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.
If this trend continues Clinton will have no-where near enough votes to make up for the areas she is guaranteed to lose in the state. This is why President Obama was campaigning in Miami.
Ergo, the overall prediction of a Florida Trump victory with a 7 to 10 point margin continues to roll along with no contradicting data.
The larger the non-traditional Florida turnout (new voters, cynic voters, monster voters, etc.), the larger the difference in the margin for Trump.
Remember, in addition to the enthusiasm advantage, the Dem party registration advantage is half what it was in 2012:
You’ll note the media “gaslighting” (poll advantage) for a Clinton narrative most easily falls apart in States where the primary election process is “closed”. Closed primary races mean enthusiastic candidates draw registration to their party (as above).
Arizona is another case in point with a closed primary and an R+5 registration advantage. And turnout in the primary races was 409k voted Democrat (turnout 40%), 531k voted Republican (turnout 45%) – a significant enthusiasm gap on top of a 170k (5%) voter registration deficit.
When pollsters don’t use an representative sample of state party registration, the cornerstone of their polling is fundamentally flawed. This is what the MSM media polls continue to do with Arizona.
North Carolina
At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of NC. These tallies which are released daily is what is actually happening on the ground.
As of 10/15 the Party Affiliation %’s in NC are as follows (LINK):
♦ Republicans – 30.2%
♦ Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%
Male Registered Voters – 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters – 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data – 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters – 6,795,706
Latest NC Absentee Ballots & Early Mail Voting as of 10/27 (early voting is included in the tally since it started on 10/20)
157,018 (+6,365 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have returned a Mail-in-Ballot or Voted Early as of 10/26 (16.9% Lead down from 18.5% on 10/26 {-1.6%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted or Voted Early (started 10/20)
♦ Rep: 270,805 (+38,871 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 427,823 (+45,236 from 10/26)
Lib: 2,210 (+370 from 10/26)
UNA: 227,425 (+31,458 from 10/26)
Total Returned or Voted Early: 928,263 (+115,935 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 29.2% (+0.6% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 46.1% (-1.0% from 10/26)
Lib: 0.2% (same from 10/26)
UNA: 24.5% (0.4% from 10/26)
New data out concerning early voting party affiliation in NC
2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%
NOTE: According to the website Accurate politics they shared the following
North Carolina: Clinton leads, but current ratio indicates a likely Trump win
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 9% more Democrats are voting for Trump than HRC (22% D for Trump while 13% R for HRC). Also UNA (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 2% (VERY CONSERVATIVE). If we take the Axiom state poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted so far:
R – 235,600 (R voting for Trump) + 94,122 (D voting for Trump) + 117,114 (I voting for Trump) = 446,836 Total Votes
D – 333,701 (D voting for HRC) + 35,205 (R voting for HRC) + 112,521 (I voting for HRC) = 481,427 Total Votes
Trump = 48.1%
HRC = 51.9%
Note: Historically Republicans in NC wait to vote on Election Day. I am not concerned about the data above becuase of that fact. Another Treeper, Alex, shared this on Friday when I sent the NC Daily Report out:
“Democrats were wining NC early voting by 16% on November 2, 2012 and Republicans won it handily,…. You need perspective when looking at numbers.” (link)
Folks I am inches away from calling NC for Trump based on the data. I will wait until November 2nd based on what Alex shared above to see what the margins are. If you put a gun to my head, Trump will win NC by 6-8 points!
I attended the class to become a poll observer in NC. IMO, NC is so beaten down by the federal public flogging and racial accusations because it is a southern SWING state, the state won’t pursue voter fraud even when proof is provided.
“Photo IDs are required to purchase Sudafed, cash a check, board an airplane or enter a federal courtroom,” Mr. [Gov.] McCrory said. “Yet three Democratic judges are undermining the integrity of our elections while also maligning our state.”
Republicans say the restrictions were aimed at ending rampant voter fraud.
But on Friday, the appeals court dismissed that argument, saying the restrictions “constitute inapt remedies for the problems assertedly justifying them and, in fact, impose cures for problems that did not exist.” Academic studies have repeatedly concluded that fraud at the ballot box — the sort that photo identification requirements might reduce — is already vanishingly rare.
The article further stated that Loretta Lynch was quite pleased with the outcome.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/30/us/federal-appeals-court-strikes-down-north-carolina-voter-id-provision.html?_r=0
So, apparently the main job of the poll observers is to just watch people and make it obvious as it will make them nervous about committing a felony. Nevertheless, we are given all the rules, and told to make note of any and all irregularities we might observe. The observers have very strict rules to follow in order not to in any way interfere with the voters.
I’m looking forward to being there on November 8 to watch the tsunami roll in and I can only hope it overcomes the “vanishingly rare” and “non-existent” voter fraud. /s
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I don’t know what’s happening in North Carolina, but at least in Virginia, there has been a least one guy caught trying to cheat the system:
http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/politics/Man-Accused-With-Filing-Fake-Voter-Registration-Applications-399027631.html
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And in Florida as well: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article111029767.html
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Colorado
CBS Colorado Investigation Shows People Voting Twice; The Dead Voting
http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/cbs-colorado-investigation-shows-people-voting-twice-the-dead-voting
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It’s happening here. I’m pretty sure that folks from assisted living facilities are being coached prior to being driven to the polls. Providing a ride is acceptable. Coaching is not. Lady in line with 1,000 yd stare asked me whose slogan “Make America Great Again” was. I told her. She said “Okay” in a soft voice.
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Take pictures of all buses running,let them know you are taking pictures. Follow the buses if they go from polling place to polling place and contact the Trump campgin. In good time these corrupt judges are headed to jail. For too long we have had corrupt judges ruling against the people. Trump is office is going to clean out the appointed judges that Obama, the Clinton’s and the Bush’s have been putting in power They were put in power to take down this nation and seem to be doing their jobs.
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Might be difficult to dislodge a lifetime appointee.
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Now you know why the judicial immunity was created and worked to protect criminal acting judges. Get rid of the corrupt JUST-US system and the illegal laws will no longer be. Until judges fear for their lives nothing will change as long as they can legislate from the bench Illegaly as always. Judges job is to enforce the laws and make someone whole again not re-define and legislate.
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I live in NC and never vote early. Too worried they can mess with my vote! We always show up at the polling place and annoy them by showing our drivers license. They purse their lips and become very stiff. It’s tons of fun.
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“… annoy them by showing our drivers license”
That’s great! Everyone should.
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Is your state that corrupt?Wow. Mind boggling.
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Nice analysis Sundance. Have to come to these sites to get actual info. MSM is 100% propaganda and irrelevant.
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DEAD PEOPLE VOTING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://6abc.com/politics/action-news-investigation-voting-from-the-grave/1575596/
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Yeah, it’s easy to work that racket. Voter rolls officials don’t get notified of deaths by other gov’t agencies, BUT …
… Dems can easily have operatives assigned to comb simple obituaries in the newspaper and harvest all those identities …
… and then vote them in the election.
Little chance of being outed: they know the deceased will not show up to vote and they know the voter rolls are unlikely to be updated to remove Mr.Dead Person from the rolls.
Easy as pie.
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Not worried about FL, NC or OH. Give me some good news for MI, CO, NV or PA. Hell even VA.
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I think the Dems plan on stealing Virginia. Despite the fact that there is an incredible absence of Hillary presence here, and there should be some support showing in Tidewater, there are analysts who believe Dems stole the state in 2012.
If it’s “close” they can steal. Need 4-5% margin to keep the steals from happening.
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Yeah, she’ll get the usual demographic support from Tidewater and a few Zip Codes around Richmond, but NOVA is the real problem…Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria. They will see what the deficit is for Hillary form the rest of the state and then, as if by magic, Fairfax will deliver the necessary margin. Just like she did in Kentucky in the primary – hold that one county and see how much you need to win.
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Why do we all act like vote fraud is just oh well. WE need to go to those states pour over the votes cast and prove the vote fraud and send the perpetrators to jail. It has got to stop.
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One hope will be that states whose polls close first – like Florida and Ohio, North Carolina, (which we believe will be Trump’s ) etc. will influence the voting going to the West – like Nevada, Colorado…
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IF DEAD PEOPLE PUT HILLARY IN WILL THIS BE OUR FATE ???????????????????????
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Currently Trump is doing better than Romney by 8% in Miami-Dade, which we may need as he trails in Hillsborough by 13K, although it is better than Romney
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My wife and I are both for Trump in Missouri, in Columbia, the most liberal part of the state.. there for law school. Yesterday Planned Parenthood PAC came to our door and asked for my wife who wasn’t home. I did them a favor and said no thanks. My wife would have probably have ended up yelling at these people for partial birth abortions. Lots of Trump signs in MO. Very few Hillary signs even in Columbia.
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Trump is doing good in MIchigan. I cannot for the life of me imagine any sane person voting for Hillery. Where is her hundreds of thousands of people voting for her. They do not show up at her rallies. Where are they if she is so popular or are these ballots being sent in harvested ballots?
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The latter.
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But what am I gonna do with all these rice cakes? Even my dogs aren’t gonna eat all these!
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facebook activity electoral map
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14908332_1809909232564374_490806885625612006_n.jpg?oh=b882e7c763432f55e5f35ccd36321e3b&oe=5890BA63
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Check out what happened when someone ran over Trump Yard signs !!!! HA HA HA
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14601113_1137316779638485_5928389584109803215_n.jpg?oh=cf9d4537d481b96e7d5930586c78c688&oe=589D20CB
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heres the facebook page , https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1137316812971815&set=pcb.366010433761079&type=3&theater
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In this era of intelligent software and huge databases…why not allow, insist, every polling place
use the DMV records/picture from the driver’s license? It is data that can be queried easily for folks who claim a picture-id is too hard to get. They don’t have to go get a picture-id, its already on file. Those who can present an ID have no problem. Those who don’t can get checked with a few key-strokes. Sure, it might take a few minutes, but the value of the information is precious. So, if a non-citizen shows up….the DMV will have that information on file with the DL issued.
Nearly ALL polling places use laptops, or some form of pc-tool to aid in the voting process.
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Texas tried to get voter id law…supreme court nocked it down. We need Trump, so we can get Supreme court justices that refer to the Constitution …and only the constitution.
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In ’12 Obama got 100% vote in Philly……..supposedly zero votes for Romney. If it’s shady like that in November Trump voters should show up in front of their voter stations. It only took 17 million people walk out in the streets to convince military in Egypt to take the Sorros controlled govt out 50 million + American voters should do.
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Many of us felt the bimbo attacks on trump started to early and might have been triggered by the Wikileaks. Some of you have seen the scandal attack on Assange http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article110904727.html This smear was started in 2015 my guess is this attack was designed for Trump and it had to be re-purposed.
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