The media continues to sell a specific election narrative that’s in their best interests. To sell the narrative they generally rely on “Media Polls”. We had previously predicted the media polling would shift in the final two weeks, and they have.
This prediction was not because the media’s preferences have changed, nor is it because their pollsters are generating a variant data-set, but rather because empirical data within early state ballot and voting undermine (actually spotlight) the flaws in their biased media polling. In essence, if they continued to sell crazy it gets transparently easier to refute it.
Early voting and ballot request data is readily available within multiple states. However, it’s important to note Pennsylvania has ZERO early voting; and that’s important because it allows the media to retain a ruse in PA they simply cannot retain in states generating factual data (example Florida and North Carolina). So where do you see the national media selling a story…. oh yeah, Pennsylvania – go figure. See how that works?
Meanwhile FLEPOREBLOG continues to do yeoman’s work in providing data that tells the real story of what’s going on:
FLORIDA
Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27
◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)
◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)
NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:
#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082
You can see the 10/29 early vote counties heavily favor Trump. You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE –
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Rasmussen polling today, Democrats and Republicans are even in the crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC (I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 8%. If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted in so far:
R – 1,014,206 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 213,690 (I voting for Trump) +32,958 (Other voting for Trump) = 1,260,854 Total Votes
D – 1,002,481 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 182,033 (I voting for HRC) + 28,076 (Other voting for HRC) = 1,212,590
Trump = 51.0%
HRC = 49.0%
Note: I am taking the 8 point difference in Independents (much more conservative). SD last night stated that the difference among Independents is 14 points. If SD prediction is correct, the early vote tally would be as follows:
Trump = 51.5%
HRC = 48.5%
This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and after election night he won the state by less than 1 point. (LINK) Actual in person voting on the traditional election day, November 8th, will heavily favor Donald Trump.
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far and the fact that the 16 counties didn’t start early voting until the 29th of October (which favors Trump based on data above), I can now soundly say that we will win FL by 8 to 10 points (54.5 – 46.5)
More Specifically, people might be interested to see what’s going on in the key Democrat stronghold of Southeast Florida, Miami-Dade (Dade County). So lets take a closer look.
Dade County:
◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots
♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247
◊ 2016 General Early Voting
♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217
Rasmussen polling today, Democrats and Republicans are even in the national crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC and 12% D for Trump {I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 8%. If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted in so far:
R – 90,135 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 30,003 (I voting for Trump) + 1,765 (Other voting for Trump) = 121,903 Total Votes
D – 123,498 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 25,559 (I voting for HRC) + 1,504 (Other voting for HRC) = 150,561 Total Votes
Trump = 44.7%
HRC = 55.3%
At first glance Dade County might seem like Clinton is walloping Trump. However, factually she needs to. Actually she’s doing much worse than it appears.
2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County
B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606
Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%. Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.
If this trend continues Clinton will have no-where near enough votes to make up for the areas she is guaranteed to lose in the state. This is why President Obama was campaigning in Miami.
Ergo, the overall prediction of a Florida Trump victory with a 7 to 10 point margin continues to roll along with no contradicting data.
The larger the non-traditional Florida turnout (new voters, cynic voters, monster voters, etc.), the larger the difference in the margin for Trump.
Remember, in addition to the enthusiasm advantage, the Dem party registration advantage is half what it was in 2012:
You’ll note the media “gaslighting” (poll advantage) for a Clinton narrative most easily falls apart in States where the primary election process is “closed”. Closed primary races mean enthusiastic candidates draw registration to their party (as above).
Arizona is another case in point with a closed primary and an R+5 registration advantage. And turnout in the primary races was 409k voted Democrat (turnout 40%), 531k voted Republican (turnout 45%) – a significant enthusiasm gap on top of a 170k (5%) voter registration deficit.
When pollsters don’t use an representative sample of state party registration, the cornerstone of their polling is fundamentally flawed. This is what the MSM media polls continue to do with Arizona.
North Carolina
At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of NC. These tallies which are released daily is what is actually happening on the ground.
As of 10/15 the Party Affiliation %’s in NC are as follows (LINK):
♦ Republicans – 30.2%
♦ Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%
Male Registered Voters – 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters – 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data – 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters – 6,795,706
Latest NC Absentee Ballots & Early Mail Voting as of 10/27 (early voting is included in the tally since it started on 10/20)
157,018 (+6,365 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have returned a Mail-in-Ballot or Voted Early as of 10/26 (16.9% Lead down from 18.5% on 10/26 {-1.6%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted or Voted Early (started 10/20)
♦ Rep: 270,805 (+38,871 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 427,823 (+45,236 from 10/26)
Lib: 2,210 (+370 from 10/26)
UNA: 227,425 (+31,458 from 10/26)
Total Returned or Voted Early: 928,263 (+115,935 from 10/26)
#Trump(Rep): 29.2% (+0.6% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 46.1% (-1.0% from 10/26)
Lib: 0.2% (same from 10/26)
UNA: 24.5% (0.4% from 10/26)
New data out concerning early voting party affiliation in NC
2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%
NOTE: According to the website Accurate politics they shared the following
North Carolina: Clinton leads, but current ratio indicates a likely Trump win
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 9% more Democrats are voting for Trump than HRC (22% D for Trump while 13% R for HRC). Also UNA (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 2% (VERY CONSERVATIVE). If we take the Axiom state poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted so far:
R – 235,600 (R voting for Trump) + 94,122 (D voting for Trump) + 117,114 (I voting for Trump) = 446,836 Total Votes
D – 333,701 (D voting for HRC) + 35,205 (R voting for HRC) + 112,521 (I voting for HRC) = 481,427 Total Votes
Trump = 48.1%
HRC = 51.9%
Note: Historically Republicans in NC wait to vote on Election Day. I am not concerned about the data above becuase of that fact. Another Treeper, Alex, shared this on Friday when I sent the NC Daily Report out:
“Democrats were wining NC early voting by 16% on November 2, 2012 and Republicans won it handily,…. You need perspective when looking at numbers.” (link)
Folks I am inches away from calling NC for Trump based on the data. I will wait until November 2nd based on what Alex shared above to see what the margins are. If you put a gun to my head, Trump will win NC by 6-8 points!
