Polling Convergence – OAN/GRAVIS and Reuters Show Donald Trump Surging With 34 – 35% Support…

Reuters Trend Polling and OAN/Gravis Polling have each announced and updated Presidential Polling for the GOP race 2016.   The results are exceptionally similar.  Both polling outcomes reflect Donald Trump with a massive lead amid the rest of the field.

Gravis Polling has Trump with 35% support.  Reuters shows an almost identical 34% outcome.  The downstream alignments with the remainder of the field are also very similar.  Here’s the OAN/Gravis result:

oan poll october 2nd 2015

[…]  Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted the random survey of 2,665 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. The polls were conducted on September 30 through October 1, 2015 (link)  Below is the graphic result from Reuters

The Reuters Data also shows an interactive trend line from August 8th to October 2nd.  As Carson and Fiorina were promoted by the media (Op-Hummingbird) you can see the Trump trend line went down.

reuters tracking poll 3

However, once Carson/Fiorina began to be vetted more seriously, and gained additional exposure/scrutiny by the audience, their trend line drops – and Trump is rising again.

The OAN/Gravis poll –when used in combination with Reuters–  is a great tool to interpret polling internals and predict outcomes.

Candidate Marco Rubio is currently running along the same path formerly traveled by Carson/Fiorina.   Rubio is attempting the same surge as Carson/Fiorina, only he’s about three weeks behind them in his effort.

The key aspect to watch is whether Rubio will meet the same fate as Fiorina (hit ceiling and drop back down), or will Rubio attain a status closer to Carson; which is where a candidate can reach a higher tier, albeit far distanced from the leader, and stay there.

This Rubio rise is more interesting because a trending Rubio will not be forcing a Trump decline, it will be forcing a Bush decline (as evidenced in the OAN/GRAVIS snapshot).  Common sense would tell you that Rubio and Bush are fighting for the same supporters – this polling outcome shows the same common sense statistically.

If Rubio can get to the higher tier and stay there; well, Jeb will be reduced to ping-pong ball status (where a candidate is like a ping-pong ball thrown against the roof of a parking garage – the current fate of Fiorina).

Establishment Republicans have a decision to make on who they are going to support long-term financially, Bush or Rubio.  Additionally, there’s the Bush family ego at play and they can be a SERIOUSLY bitter group when losing.

Both campaigns are in New York this weekend courting Wall Street hedge-fund billionaires.

jeb bush funny 2

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169 Responses to Polling Convergence – OAN/GRAVIS and Reuters Show Donald Trump Surging With 34 – 35% Support…

  1. prescient11 says:

    Also folks, it was Gravis that showed that ridiculous, small sample poll that Fox blared everywhere. Think they will report on this one??!! Nah. Reuters/Ipsos was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012, just an fyi.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. my prediction is Jeb will take kid Rubio, his faithful dog Rover (Karl) won’t leave Jeb’s side for Rubio. Rover probably owes the BUSH FAMILY a lot so he must.
    VERY FUNNY ping pong ball Fiorina analogy!
    the economy will be the next debate and i just don’t see how Rubio can lie his way through that one, and foreign policy he’s already branded with his clueless let’s get russia and start WWIII on Syria naivety already on record.

    Liked by 6 people

  3. stringy theory says:

    Jebito is suffering serious hurt and no doubt his handler, Rover, is busy telling the money guys to hold on just a bit longer until his white board plan starts to work. More seriously, jebito will have to start really going after Rube and the back and forth won’t do any of them any good. I expect Rube will suffer the most because jebito hasn’t much more room to fall, but Rube does. I think he will suffer the same rise and fall that Carson and snarly have already experienced. Go Trump. Victory will be ours.

    Liked by 7 people

  4. R-C says:

    Oh, to be a “fly-on-the-wall” at RNC headquarters…

    These GOPe skunks have truly EARNED the drubbing they are going to get.

    Liked by 8 people

    • stringy theory says:

      They certainly do deserve the drubbing. I expect all the GOPe senators running this time are also scared of the fate that awaits them. It’s not only Rube who has a serious case of the flop sweats.

      Liked by 3 people

  5. sundance says:

    Liked by 10 people

  6. Voltaire's Crack says:

    Fox candidate casino actual results today – apparently, it finally dawned on Krauthammer that Trump has been leading in the polls for months:

    Sharyl Atkisson
    40 – Trump
    40 – Carson
    15 – Fiorina
    5 – Bush

    Krauthammer
    Rubio – 35
    Bush – 20
    Fiorina – 15
    Trump – 15
    Cruz – 5
    Wine, Women and Song – 10

    Dave somebody
    40 – Rubio
    30 – Carson
    10 – Trump
    10 – Fiorina
    10 – Bush

    Liked by 4 people

  7. It’s very interesting all the praise Trump’s tax plan is getting from both the right and left!

    CBS: Donald Trump’s tax plan would help the poorest Americans http://www.cbsnews.com/news/yes-trump-tax-plan-should-help-the-poorest-americans/?

    VICE: Shockingly, Donald Trump’s Tax Plan Could Be Good for Women https://broadly.vice.com/en_us/article/shockingly-donald-trumps-tax-plan-could-be-good-for-women

    HuffPo: Trump’s Tax Plan Is Justice for Small Businesses (yes this is from Huffington Post)
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamil-bouchareb/trumps-tax-plan-is-justic_b_8228358.html

    Liked by 3 people

    • Curry Worsham says:

      Trump and his policies have across the board appeal – but the Tea Party is his base. Tea Party doesn’t agree with everything but that’s OK. GO TRUMP!

      Liked by 1 person

      • haypa2haypa2 says:

        Tea party wants everyone to pay some tax, to have skin in the game. If Trump’s economic plan works those non-tax payers will have raises to the point that they will pay tax.

        Like

        • Which is the way to run a successful business. Give people something that they can rise to and rise they will. This is why Trump is going to win, regardless of what most media wants us to believe. The free publicity for a self-funding candidate is for sure a plus!

          Liked by 1 person

      • calgirlpatriot says:

        If we agree 80% of the time then they are our friend not 20% traitor. Many Tea Partyers go by that rule quoted by Reagan.

        Like

  8. MfM says:

    I’ve started to see normal (non-political junkies) people asking why Jindal, Pataki, Graham, Sandorum, Christie and Paul are still in the race since they are not going anywhere except closer to the bottom of the pile. I really hope that consistently poor showing will push them out sooner then planned.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. sundance says:

    Liked by 3 people

    • Voltaire's Crack says:

      Is Schmidt signalling that he’s in the Rubio camp?

      “He’s slipping the jab. He’s moving around the ring and he’s looking good doing it,” said Steve Schmidt, a GOP strategist who guided John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “There are a lot of ways to answer that question: defensively, with hostility, attacking back and escalating a political fight.
      “It’s a deft response. The tone is perfect. He’s basically saying [Jeb] is an old politician, saying things he doesn’t mean to advantage himself politically.”

      Like

    • Heimdall says:

      Hahahaha! The Rubio/Jeb camps can destroy each other for all I care. We all know who this benefits…

      Liked by 2 people

  10. TheTorch says:

    Yes! Just what I was hoping! We have polls after the Tax Reform from Trump, and it has indeed upticked for Trump! Wonderful! Also the rolling Reuters poll, just look what happened after September 28…

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Desert Transplant says:

    For those that still watch FOX, Trump will appear on Sean Hannity’s show tonight. O’Reilly has Jeb tonight and his tease was “a Jeb like you have never seen”!

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Until each and every GOP Inc bastage has a heart attack and drops dead I will not be happy with the Party ;0)

    Liked by 2 people

  13. TheTorch says:

    Am I reading that correctly on the Reuters rolling poll – Surging Jebio (Rubio), is under 5% !!

    Liked by 4 people

  14. jeans2nd says:

    Do these polls plus the ‘Bush family ego’ explain why Bush has been going after Rubio now? Jeb$ comparing Rubio to Obama was a shock.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Cameraman says:

    These are some seriously strong poll numbers and heading into the weekend it will be interesting to see if the MSM are brazen enough to ignore polls from Reuters and Pew Research (of course they are).

    This is the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll with Trump on 32%. That’s a 20 point lead over 2nd place Carson on 12%.

    http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7011

    In other news, Trump has told the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce to get lost (they were planning a childish ambush) and will hold another rally instead. Excellent.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/02/team-trump-more-genuine-and-productive-ways-to-speak-with-hispanics-than-through-pro-amnesty-chamber-group/

    Liked by 8 people

  16. MichelleWSC2 says:

    Cool..glad I pointed these polls out

    Like

  17. archer52 says:

    I was thinking about Trump’s tax plan. If someone is making under 25 grand there is no tax. Over 25000 it is ten percent? Does that mean if someone is making 25 grand, and gets a one grand raise, he loses money because now he pays 2500 a year in taxes?

    Or will there be a stair step within the income increases?

    Like

    • Cameraman says:

      I believe In that example he would pay 0% on the first $25,000 and 10% on the next $1,000 (total salary $26,000). The direct tax would be $100 so he would still be better off by $900.

      I’m not a tax accountant so if i got that wrong feel free to shoot me down in flames. 🙂

      Like

    • Masterdeviance says:

      That person’s first $25k would be untaxed, while the $1k ($26k – $25k) would be taxed at 10%.

      Liked by 1 person

    • booger71 says:

      Archer, what you are describing is our tax system now..a Progressive graduated tax that punishes success..Mr Trump’s plan is a graduated plan that rewards success, and it takes out that nasty AMT tax that bites people who under estimate their tax or works several jobs

      Liked by 1 person

    • booger71 says:

      As an example, I just did this years taxes with Trump’s new rates, and it would have reduced my tax bill by 30%. Yes I would love this plan.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Sandra says:

      Cameraman and Masterdeviance are right. What you are doing is paying the tax for each bracket your salary spans. A person who makes $70k spans 3 brackets in Trump’s plan, the first $25k is in the 0% bracket, the second $25k is in the 10% bracket, and then there’s $20k remaining which is in the 20% bracket. So the person pays .00($25k) + .10($25k) + .2($20k). It ends up being a smooth transition from bracket to bracket.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. tychesd says:

    New poll has Carson in lead by 7 points. IBD poll.

    Like

  19. TheTorch says:

    Trump is truly running a brilliant Campaign! He just is not missing a beat at the moment. All the Anti-Trump Bashing by GOPe and Fox is failing.

    He has spent literally no money, and the opposition is spending millions of dollars, and yet he gets tremendous media coverage which does not cost him a dime.

    He is rolling out policy platforms, well thought out and at the right time.

    The others are just attacking him for being politically incorrect and anything else they can throw at him.

    They have absolutely nothing to offer but attack attack attack.

    and yet we are supposed to believe that Trump is unpresidential!

    I am actually starting to believe that it is not Trump that is burning the GOPe house down, I think they are doing it to themselves, it is just a slow burn, so they don’t notice…

    Of course he has lit the match!

    Liked by 15 people

  20. JAS says:

    I only look at the Reuters polls these days because it’s all out in the open as far as the filters are concerned. end user adjustable, and they are graphical to boot. The MSM don’t want to do that because they want to skew public opinion based on filtering and they never want to tell you about that. MSM numbers are very misleading.

    Like

  21. Arkindole says:

    Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.

    Where else to you get technical analyses like that for free?

    Liked by 7 people

  22. lovely says:

    With apologies to Dr. Seuss.

    Donald Trump 34.7

    How the RNC stole an Election

    “And the Rove, with his Rove head pondering polls, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came with out Reince. It came without me. It came without the RNC, Fox News or PACS. And he puzzled and puzzled ‘till his puzzler was sore. Then the Rove thought of something he hadn’t thought of before. What if the nominee, he thought, isn’t chosen by me? What if the nominee, perhaps, is chosen by vulgarians”

    “And what happened then? Well, in America they say that the Rove’s bank account shrunk three sizes that day.”

    Liked by 8 people

  23. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    So far so good Trump stays in the lead and pulls ahead while the RNC minions are left behind. I wish the Cruz would get more traction he is a good guy with lots to offer.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Posted by a Rubiobot
    Is this a new poll he’s referring to?

    Like

  25. Voltaire's Crack says:

    What the heck is going on?

    Megyn Kelly is going after the New York Times because of a condescending article on Melania Trump. Stirewalt and Kurtz joining in, saying it’s “grody” and only because he is a Republican.

    Then they pivot to Jeb Bush, and essentially sound the alarms that his campaign is in serious trouble showing the poll with him at 4%.

    I’d say more, but I have to check what’s going on outside. I swear I saw a pig 50 feet in the air flapping what looked like wings.

    Liked by 6 people

  26. nimrodman says:

    Trump on Hannity:

    “We just get ROLLED by every country that touches us, by every country that sees us.”

    Liked by 4 people

  27. Juan says:

    Aftermath of poll showing YEB! at 4% … photo taken at GOPe headquarters ……

    Liked by 6 people

  28. sundance says:

    Liked by 10 people

  29. justfactsplz says:

    These are the polls I like and believe are true, not fabricated. Trump also has higher numbers in individual state polls. His actual numbers are far greater than even these polls tell. The GOPe are going to be astounded at the turnout for the primaries. I think it will be record breaking and a landslide for Trump.

    Liked by 2 people

  30. Voltaire's Crack says:

    Holy moly

    Liked by 4 people

  31. Garrison Hall says:

    Now there’s talk of Romney entering the campaign. If he is serious about this, it’s a sure sign that the GOPe is running scared. Given his epic fail in the 2012 campaign combined with his deer-in-the-headlights debate style, Romney doesn’t exactly have the kind of hero status to guarantee him a significant bump in the polls. To complicate matters even further with reliable polls showing Trump at 35%, Romney would be hard pressed to create the kind of momentum to truly threaten Trump. It may be that the GOPe/establishment just plans to use him slightly higher-priced cannon fodder for the hummingbird strategy. But then, maybe ‘ole Mitt’s got more street cred than I think he does and can out Trump, Trump. We’ll see. GO TRUMP!!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Voltaire's Crack says:

      It reminds me of one of those episodes of Hell’s Kitchen where there are 10 cooks in the galley, things start going wrong and they all turn on each other and push each other out of the way to boost their own cred.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Eskie Mom says:

      You’ve gotta be kidding. (apologies, DooDah) Mitt wishes he were half the man Donald Trump is & had even half the decency. DT is a creator of success & beauty. Romney is a predator & a destroyer with failure & decay in his wake. He’s like a vampire.

      I guess it wouldn’t be good as far as making a crazy situation crazier, but Mitt & Al Bore could add some major comic relief into the mix (in a twisted sorta way).

      Like

    • jim says:

      Mitt the Waffler.

      Liked by 1 person

  32. The question is will the GOPe roadmap work for a Rubio vs Biden scenario? The Roadmap has to be a heads I win, tails you lose scenario for the CoC and Wall Street hedge funders to go along with it. Letting go of the GOP nomination to Trump and putting all their effort on Biden to win the general election isn’t an option in my opinion.

    Like

    • sundance says:

      The GOPe machine will never stop fighting Trump. However, they will entirely support Clinton or Biden if Trump wins the Republican nomination.

      The GOPe roadmap was designed to provide a specific outcome. If Trump removes half of the possible path, they just put all efforts into the other… The RNC/GOPe will campaign to assist Hillary Clinton.

      That’s all, no biggie.

      Liked by 4 people

      • That would be something to see after the Republican convention 0f 2016 Romney, McCain, Orrin Hatch, Graham, Christie, and GW Bush maybe, all endorse say Biden for President over Trump. Would the Republican Party survive. Would the party be renamed. Would the Democrats call themselves the Unity Party of Republicans and Democrats to defeat Trump. (not likely, democrats never share power)

        Like

  33. Melania for 1st Lady says:

    Fellow Trump supporters,

    We need to start looking into ABSENTEE BALLOTS. If we can get absentee ballots and send them in then The Donald will have have thousands and thousands of votes in every state BEFORE the primaries even begin! How early can a voter get an absentee ballot? Does it vary in each state? I don’t know but it is worth looking into. Getting in absentee ballots early has benefitted other candidates in the past.

    Trump 2016

    In Your Heart You Know He’s RIGHT!

    Like

  34. jameswlee2014 says:

    When Trump first announced a couple of months ago the voice of the GOPe railing against him was like the lion in the MGM logo before the movie starts. Now they sound like they just breathed helium.

    Like

  35. WOW, Trump jut tweeted out this article!

    Liked by 2 people

  36. Nathan says:

    My take away from all the polls today and past is that Trump and Carson both are running masterful campaigns that have the GOP Insiders backs against the wall. I look at favorbility polls as well, and notice that what this Republican Primary Election will come down to is how many candidates are in the race come March 1. If there is a large field, Trump very well may take the nomination, however if the field thins I would not be shocked at all to see Carson intact trump the Donald when all is said and done. It just seems to me the favorbility works against Trump and for Carson if the two get into anything resembling a heads up match up. The longer players like Huckabee, Cruz, and Fiorina stay in the race, the better the Donald’s chance become in my opinion.

    Like

  37. marierogers says:

    carsons a nice guy..but dealing with putin, isis, congress? we need a REAL man!
    why are his numbers so high? or are they? at least carly is a goner!

    Like

  38. Rita says:

    Donald Trump is already the President of USA
    Is not obvious ? Let to admit for generations this world didn’t have such a powerful personality
    Is the salvation of the entire globe , he is the . ..trumpets

    Like

  39. Rick says:

    I see that the MSM has not picked up on either of these polls since the start of the weekend. They are talking about the insignificant IBD poll that shows Carson ahead of Trump.
    It’s just unreal to see how much opposition there is to the reality of what the people want and the fact that they are pro-Trump.
    It really is a sad state of affairs how the UNI-Party operates in coordination with the fourth branch of Gov’t (Media)

    Like

  40. sonsofliberty76 says:

    I don’t understand why this Reuters poll isn’t at the top of the list when I google “Trump polls”.
    Is it because of google’s Left bent? I find it on the bottom of page 2!

    Like

  41. I think the RNC can see Americans are awake, aware, and doing our own homework. We are more tech savvy than they thought. If TRUMP wins the nomination we will know if the RNC and other runners don’t back the TRUMP. Not by their numbers but because their numbers are not showing in our numbers. See, we’s not so dumbest as you’ns thank we is.

    Like

  42. Paul Killinger says:

    Please put me on your list for polling updates. I am curious about “Democrats for Trump.” I saw an article recently that indicated the Teamsters Union wanted to talk to him. Thanks for your efforts!

    Like

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