Here’s a question.  Given the current landscape, and understanding the full plan of the GOPe, and accepting we are a low budget operation (LOL), we’re establishing another series of “tripwires” to watch.

GOP candidates mashup
We’ve already staked out a BIG TRIPWIRE long before anyone was paying attention to it.  However, we still have a lot of people who refuse to see/accept the flares as they are triggered; but, fortunately, more eyes open as each occurs. So we’re moving forward to set another perimeter.
It’s a given that Rick Perry will be the first of the GOPe crew to drop out.  His “splitter value” has greatly diminished – and he’s essentially irrelevant now.
The RNC/GOPe planners are now in the refinement and reaffirmation (Bush at Border) phase.  So the question becomes:
Who will be 2nd GOPe candidate that Team Donohue can afford to lose?
Here’s the list of Jeb Bush team colleagues – “The Splitters”:

♦ Rick Perry
♦ Chris Christie
♦ Carly Fiorina
♦ Marco Rubio (FL)
♦ John Kasich (OH)
♦ Mike Huckabee (AR and Bible Belt)
♦ Lindsey Graham (SC)
♦ George Pataki (NY)
♦ Jim Gilmore (VA)

Who can they afford to lose next (second) and yet still continue the overall road map plan?

Keeping the overall primary election in mind – Your thoughts?

#1 – Iowa Caucus/Convention, Monday February 1st 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)
#2 – New Hampshire Primary, Tuesday February 9th 2016: 23 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
#3 – South Carolina Primary, Saturday February 20th 2016: 50 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Open Primary (Anyone Can Vote)
#4 – Nevada Caucus/Convention, Tuesday February 23rd 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)
#5 – SUPER TUESDAY: Tuesday March 1st  – 601 Total Delegates

  • Texas: 155 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Alabama: 50 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Tennessee: 58 Delegates (Winner Take All *If 50% of vote achieved, if not Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Vermont: 16 Delegates (Winner Take All *If 50% of vote achieved, if not Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Arkansas: 40 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Georgia: 76 Delegates (Proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Massachusetts: 42 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans
  • North Carolina: 72 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Oklahoma: 43 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Virginia: 49 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Open Primary

#6 – Louisiana Primary, Saturday March 5th 2016 : 46 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Closed Primary  (Republican Only)
#7 – Mini Tuesday: Tuesday March 8th – 130 Delegates

  • Michigan Primary: 59 Delegates (Proportional) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Idaho: 32 Delegates (Caucus/Convention) / Closed
  • Mississippi: 39 Delegates (WTA, if Less than 50% Proportional) / Open Primary

#8 – Puerto Rico, Sunday March 13th 2016: 23 Delegates (WTA, if less than 50% Proportional) / Open Primary
#9 – GAME DAY: Tuesday March 15th – 234 Total Delegates

  • Florida: 99 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary
  • Ohio: 66 Delegates (WTA, or if less than 50% Proportional) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Illinois: 69 Delegates (Proportional w/ Beauty Contest) / Open Primary

NOTE: Initially I thought Mike Huckabee would be the second they would be willing to lose.  However, when we looked back to the earlier 2014 library of GOPe construction reference, we noted the intensity of their concern with Tom Cotton conservatism (largest electoral percentage victory in 2014 mid-terms) was the biggest part of their reasoning for leveraging Huckster.   So now we’re not sure who #2 could be.

Posted in Election 2016, Tripwires
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