Caterpillars never-ever, ever-ever, wear brown boots.  That sensibility is about as useful as polling this time of year.  Just about every poll hitting the media airwaves has some sort of media-purchased agenda behind it.  Through the end of the primaries all of them should be taken with a grain of salt.

For today’s narrative Pollster Patrick Murray (he’s now infamous) puts his chicken on a string and submerges it beneath the media surface – SEE HERE.  The frenzy ensues.  (full pdf below):

(FULL POLL DATA)
(FULL POLL DATA)

Here’s the problem.  Patrick’s polling uses 83 registered “independent” voters amid a total poll of 403 respondents.  See the issue?

monmouth university 3-7-16 FL

That’s correct.  Florida is a closed primary and “independents” cannot vote on March 15th.  So take these poll results with a grain of salt.

Does the removal of independent’s responses make the result better or worse for Donald Trump?  That depends on who you talk to.  But taking 83 out of 403 makes the actual poll itself utterly and completely useless as a predictive measurement.

[scribd id=302968118 key=key-SVxL0p9GYHr1FnLnwu4w mode=scroll]

Then again, Patrick Murray never puts his Monmouth University polls out to be predictive of outcomes, they are intended exclusively for use by:

medialogos

…..to sell a narrative and drive ratings.

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