A Southern Political Poll released today (full pdf below) conducted for the Augusta Chronicle and Fox5 is exceptionally interesting.  The poll data itself is deep, extensive, succinct and well presented.  Good sample size, low MOE and few assumptions.

The top line results, show remarkable consistency with the previous NBC/WSJ and Maris polls conducted in January.  With the exception of a modest bump for John Kasich, the latest polling shows almost no change – and most of the SC electorate have not only made up their mind, but their decision has been settled for quite a while:

A close review of the poll internals, shows some remarkable and consistent insights when contrast against ground reports, alternate polling and field data.  What many political junkies might find remarkable is the dominance of the Trump coalition.

After reviewing the poll data, the current decisions of the Trump campaign’s approach in South Carolina make VERY good sense.

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(Via CBS) The six remaining major GOP presidential candidates have all qualified for CBS News’ Republican debate in South Carolina on Saturday night, the network announced Friday.

Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich have been invited to participate in the debate at the Peace Center in Greenville.

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, who had only previously participated in undercard debates, did not qualify for the main stage, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out of the 2016 race earlier this week. (more…)

It did not take long for the earlier predictions of the upcoming South Carolina debate to be confirmed.  According to a local media report the Peace Center in South Carolina, with an audience capacity of 1,900, will be attended by only the most exclusive party insiders and Republican donors.

[…]  Republican National Committee decided not to go with a lottery system. “If we had not had it at the Peace Center we probably would have had more people come, but the Peace Center is the venue that CBS chose,” said Chad Groover, chairman of the Greenville County Republican party.

Groover said supporters who work hard for the party will be rewarded tickets. People selected will fill the 1,900 seats that have been made available for the event, according to Groover.  Groover said the Republican National Committee gives a lot of tickets to supporters. He said more are then allocated for the state party to distribute among the county chairs.  […]  Groover said he gave tickets to supporters, including elected officials, who work hard for the party. (link)

As typical for the cocktail class, “work hard for the party” translates to opening checkbooks and demanding influence.

The New Hampshire debate audience was Old School Republicans who cheered Jeb Bush and jeered the ‘next-in-line-jumper’ Marco Rubio.  However, South Carolina has already shown their most preferential candidate in the North Charleston debate, where party insiders were majority Rubio supporters.  Expect Greenville to be more like the latter than former. (more…)

Remember – Carly Fiorina was pushed to enter the 2016 presidential race at the behest of Mitt Romney.  Billionaire Robert Mercer shifted funds ($500k) from Cruz Super-PAC KtP1 to start Carly for America (CFA).  All activity prior to Donald Trump disrupting the GOPe Road-Map “splitter strategy”.

Today Carly Fiorina suspended her campaign – Announcement Via Facebook HERE

Carly is the 10th candidate to drop out of the presidential race. (She is also the 7th “splitter” to exit) The media will focus on questions surrounding her projected endorsement.  She will absolutely endorse either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio.  However, her endorsement will be contingent upon the GOPe deciding which one is more viable.

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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has officially “suspended” his presidential campaign.  He’s out.  ….And it didn’t take long for Fox News head Rupert Murdoch to throw an annoyed elbow in his direction upon exit.

If anyone doubted all the research (2+ years worth) that proves Fox News was officially structuring news and opinion content to benefit Marco Rubio’s presidential bid you can put those doubts to rest.  Fox News is the unofficial Super-PAC of Marco Rubio – See Here

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Last night was a Donald Trump win, period.  A YUGE win.  For context: Donald Trump beat second place, John Kasich, by more votes (currently 51,000) than Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton (currently 50,000).

A resounding victory for the vulgarian rebel alliance. Today, rejoice, dance well, be of good cheer and enjoy.

However, come sunrise we meet at the old mill, and ride south.

What does last night mean for the GOPe road map?  That’s where it gets interesting.

Forget John Kasich;  he is irrelevant as an individual candidate.  Kasich has no organization, no structural pathway, no ballot access and is not a national candidate.  However, his future endorsement of the GOPe candidate (Rubio or Bush) does bring with it his NH delegates…. but that is all.

The biggest loser is also one of our biggest loses, Governor Chris Christie.   By coming in sixth, Christie has failed to make the cut for the upcoming CBS debate.

Debate Qualifications: Top three finish in Iowa, or Top five finish in New Hampshire, or top five polling nationally or in South Carolina.  (link)

In addition to the debate issues and a financial hurdle, the sixth place finish essentially eliminates any path for Chris Christie.   [Team Marco Rubio collectively breathe a sigh of relief.]  However, with Christie gone – Jeb Bush also loses a key strategic partner for his own electoral pathway forward. (more…)

The polls close in New Hampshire at 8:00pm – Results will be coming in throughout the night/evening.  We will keep this thread at the top of the page for discussion as the results come in: WMUR Local Media Results

The Race Has Been Called !!  Trump Wins !!

With 81% of the precincts reporting

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Tonight, in advance of the New Hampshire vote tomorrow, Megyn Kelly goes into full defense mode to protect Senator Marco Rubio from his horrible debate performance.  You can watch the full-frontal effort HERE

Immediately after interviewing Marco Rubio, she brings in who?  Wait for it… wait for it….  Yep, Governor Chris Christie.   Watch:

The laughable portion is when Chris Christie points out to Kelly (@01:00) that he knows she is using canned Christie footage provided by the Marco Rubio campaign.  Kelly tries to claim the footage did not come from Rubio, but the pearl clutching is just too much. The transparency of the Fox/Kelly agenda is ridiculous.

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Let us all hope the good people of New Hampshire spot the insufferable and poorly briefed politicians who want to lead the nation.

In a recent South Carolina GOP debate Jeb Bush talked about trade with China and showed how much he relies on briefings by his team to create his talking points. Bush did not realize Boeing was moving a manufacturing plant to China, and with it American Jobs – SEE HERE

Similarly, last night in New Hampshire, to bolster his propositions about eminent domain, Governor Jeb Bush made the gobsmacking assertion the Keystone Pipeline project was a “public use” project.

It isn’t.

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Before watching this video we would humbly request everyone to go back and revisit the previous explanations of what Chris Christie’s role is in this 2016 election cycle.  SEE HERE

Back in the spring of 2014, based entirely on the events of late 2013 and the RNC meetings in February of 2014, we shared the initial set-up for the 2016 GOPe presidential road-map.

At the time we stated in order for the RNC to achieve their objectives, both Chris Christie and Marco Rubio would enter the race for very specific purposes. (more…)