The ramifications for Twitter surrounding fake users or algorithmic bots are considerable. One issue is overcharging advertisers for ad impressions based on mDAU’s, which are “monetized Daily Active Users.” The second issue is an outcome of the first and relates to the valuation of Twitter. If Twitter bots are higher than Twitter estimates, then the mDAU rate is overstated.
Elon Musk is indicating there may need to be a lowering of the purchase price unless Twitter becomes transparent with how they are calculating the number of bot users at less than 5%. All outside reviews attempting to estimate the number of fake accounts, or bots, puts the estimations considerably higher than the claims by Twitter. Elon Musk tweeted:
At “The All In Summit 2022,” Elon Musk gave the impression the purchase price of Twitter may be tenuous. He said that a deal with a lower price tag is not “out of the question,” Bloomberg reported. “Currently, what I’m being told is that there’s just no way to know the number of bots… It’s like, as unknowable as the human soul,” Musk said at the Miami conference, per a social media video, Bloomberg added.
Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has responded to the controversy in a very obtuse twitter thread:
Let’s talk about spam. And let’s do so with the benefit of data, facts, and context…
First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.
Next, spam isn’t just ‘binary’ (human / not human). The most advanced spam campaigns use combinations of coordinated humans + automation. They also compromise real accounts, and then use them to advance their campaign. So – they are sophisticated and hard to catch.
Some final context: fighting spam is incredibly *dynamic*. The adversaries, their goals, and tactics evolve constantly – often in response to our work! You can’t build a set of rules to detect spam today, and hope they will still work tomorrow. They will not.
We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam – if they can’t pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).
The hard challenge is that many accounts which look fake superficially – are actually real people. And some of the spam accounts which are actually the most dangerous – and cause the most harm to our users – can look totally legitimate on the surface.
Our team updates our systems and rules constantly to remove as much spam as possible, without inadvertently suspending real people or adding unnecessary friction for real people when they use Twitter: none of us want to solve a captcha every time we use Twitter.
Now, we know we aren’t perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.
Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.
Each human review is based on Twitter rules that define spam and platform manipulation, and uses both public and private data (eg, IP address, phone number, geolocation, client/browser signatures, what the account does when it’s active…) to make a determination on each account.
The use of private data is particularly important to avoid misclassifying users who are actually real. FirstnameBunchOfNumbers with no profile pic and odd tweets might seem like a bot or spam to you, but behind the scenes we often see multiple indicators that it’s a real person.
Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% – based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.
Unfortunately, we don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.
There are LOTS of details that are very important underneath this high-level description. We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago and look forward to continuing the conversation with him, and all of you. (Link to Twitter Article)
Methinks Parag Agrwal doth protest too much…. Especially if you overlay the ideological incentives that Twitter carries into its operational platform.
If you accept that Twitter is manipulating the public conversation intentionally (they are), then Twitter bots would serve an ideological function. However, the issue of ‘bots’ operating on the Twitter platform is interesting when you consider the cost of platform operation.
On one hand, extensive auto-generated ‘bots’ would be an issue of cost and data-processing, a net negative. On the other hand, the use of bots would be a manipulative practice for the creation of false impressions to generate advertising revenue.
If the scale of data-processing was subsidized, an outcome of a network of data processing centers -the AWS cloud- linked to government resources, the bots would not be a cost issue for the operation. Despite the false impressions generated, bots would, however, under this weird situation, be useful for the manipulation of the conversation.
At the root of Elon Musk’s line of inquiry is the need to discover if this suspicion is true.
If the scale of bots has been underestimated (likely by a willfully blind operation) the advertising fees charged by Twitter were potentially fraudulent. This is another operational reason (mitigating lawsuits from advertisers) for Musk to make the determination prior to the final purchase of the platform.
Taking Twitter private as a company, eliminating bots (which is essentially removing fraudulent users) then carries the potential benefits of both lowering costs and positioning the company to increase genuine ad revenue from authenticated users as real people.
Many people suspect the size of the political left on the Twitter platform is manipulated by programatic bots. Meaning there seems to be more people on the left side of the spectrum because bots are deployed to give the impression of like-minded users. I am one of the people who believe this suspicion is accurate, because it would be a typical way the ideological left operates.
The bots would be in addition to the deployment of algorithms that are designed to suppress speech the platform operators do not like.
I have long suspected the Twitter algorithm process is essentially assigning certain users into specifically designed data-processing containers where their voice is suppressed. Some people call this ‘shadow-banning,’ I simply call it suppression.
Elon Musk represents a threat to the way the platform was/is designed to operate. If Musk removes the discussion constraints, opens the containers and removes the restrictions, while simultaneously eliminating bots and fake accounts, the entire perspective of the platform could change very quickly. This is what I think the current board and operators are trying to avoid.
Another rudimentary way to look at it…. Think about the last several months of public opinion polls. Despite the efforts of a compliant media, repeatedly we see a 75/25 split against Biden and leftist policies. The 3:4 and/or 4:5 ratio has been a consistent pattern for several months. That ratio shows up in almost every poll. However, if you look at Twitter that ratio is not present in the “organic” conversation about the same issues.
As CTH has said for many years, there are more of us than them. However, Big Tech controls the mechanisms we use to communicate – and as a consequence the scale of our assembly is severely understated.
Twitter user fraud is the digital and social media equivalent to voter election fraud. The voices raised in opposition to researching both issues are exactly the same.
Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious….
By the looks of it Cheeky Parag has been eating all the Spam and Bots.
Fake news, fake elections, fake conservatives, a fake president, and so sure, a billion fake Twaddler accounts is par for the course!
The only thing that’s real is citizens living their lives and working to make the best of it.
At Twitter, YouTube and Facebook you’re the product not the customer!
Right! YOU are sold to businesses!
YOU are sold up the river, down the river, and then get flushed down the sewer!
As Putin put it so well: an “Empire of lies.”
I hope Musk prevails at the most and at the least, I hope he publicly exposes any and all wrongdoings of Twitter. Either way, it looks like he “wins” in some manner.
They basically admitted today we censor you for your own good
Commies
They are goin to jail
I think that it is 50% Bots.
Elon should get a 50% purchase discount.
To be fair, more like 75% on account of the current management likely having to settle numerous suits after defrauding advertisers.
and then sued for defrauding investors
Maybe I should go long on popcorn before this all settles.
After the lawsuits are settled there will be nothing left to buy.
Parag Agrwal is not a human being. He is a bot.
He’s also The World’s Fascist Indian.
I’m probably not the first to notice it, but the way Musk has gained a position of power which he is leveraging to expose the flaws and outright corruption within a particular system, much to the horror of the creeps running (rigging) the system itself, is very Trumpian, No?
Accurate observation.
Quite Trumpian…
The best IS yet to come 🎼
I heard Jack Dorsey gave up the details because the board ousted him
Surgical precision.
Project Veritas just dropped video about the censorship culture there.
Another third world foreigner trashing our 1st Amendment!
another third-world foreigner that looks like 80% of the telecommunication and IT employees in the USA.
We bring them in by the millions because our C-Levels tell Congress americans aren’t qualified to do this sort of work. It’s not entirely wrong as most american kids don’t have technical degrees, but there are millions and millions of americaans fully qualified to do this sort of work today. They want the imports, so this is what you get. People that absolutely hate our country. We are importing an enemy army every year.
Bush and Obama to blame!! Americans were fired which was ridiculous and against the law for H1B1 bs. Send them all home. AT&T is as bad ! I ask to speak to an American. I can’t understand them and they don’t understand me!
“another third-world foreigner that looks like 80% of the telecommunication and IT employees in the USA”
And I’ve got a niece who wants to re-train in “coding”
I doubt she’s got the faintest idea whether there’ll be a job for her or what she’s up against with these H1 visa holders
She has “friends in Seattle” she’s eager to re-join
But with the Veritas reveal of the 4-hr workweek, I suspect there’ll be a big shakeout of this house of cards and the “coding” gravy train will be over
Rush always said that a small number of Bots sit in their basements and attacked him and others like him and make it look like it is in the hundreds of thousands. They also do this to businesses that they disagree with their ideology to start a boycott or to shut them down. He said they make it look like they are the majority but in reality, it is all a mirage.
Rush explained how you can buy bots and followers right here in Florida.
Rush was a very smart tech guy who had very smart individual’s around him.
Still miss the man every single day
Every day!
Every day at noon I think about Rush. Miss him so much also..
I miss him everyday too. Recently, I was fortunate to pick up the entire collection of the Limbaugh Letter at an estate sale for nearly nothing. Currently working on my Dr. in Conservatism!
Even from beyond the pearly gates, Rush continues an unprecedented accuracy rating.
Yup, he showed all those advertisers who dropped his show after the woman-who-shall-not-be-named incident, that it was something like six people who were sending them those thousands of boycott blackmailers.
yeah she was a real fluke…..
?w=1200
Was going to post same picture!
I thought those were modems at first but it looks like they’re smart phones
Each masquerading as a user, I suppose
Wow! What’s that from?
I don’t recall the provenance that that is a real world spam bot operation.
they absolutely do this to companies and to non-profits as well. I suspect the morons at the Salvation Army that made their white-guilt public statement just before the Holidays did so as a result of some activist blitzkrieg. The senior leaders don’t want trouble (mainly because they like their big paychecks), so they grab their ankles and acquiesce.
Many of these people are also profoundly lazy and make easy marks for the left. They deserve it if they are such lazy cowards.
They have leftist Obama/Biden Commie Bot farms black mailing companies and Individuals who have money and fame….. for donations. While also using the bot farms to cancel people they don’t like, etc.
Once we know how many and which ones…
Can we find out who is controlling them?
Somewhere out there I believe it was project Veritas had undercover video of a large pool of twatter employees and most are foreigners from Eastern Europe on HB visa programs.
I was just going to say something similar regarding all of the foreigners who come here from countries very different in ethics and ideals. In stead of trying to be part of the hard working freedom loving America they bring the same attitude from their old country. Take a look at the Squad women!!! Check the names and background of many in government positions including judges. And this has nothing to do with race.
Biden seems to revel in hiring third world immigrants in charge of running America…into the ground!
Just like a previous president, and a current VP, you can’t spend your formative years being raised in another country and truly appreciate the US Constitution. When you are raised without a history of freedom of speech, you just don’t value it.
Amen
Those escaping communism from Cuba, China or East Germany were so thankful to be “free” able to leave the oppression and bully’s behind!! Dictators are cruel devils. So thankful for my beautiful Alabama and patriots of America ! I have zero respect for DC NWO/swamp. They are NWO deep state with Bush pushing his 1000 lights CIA bs. Sometimes your eyes just open and your have the “wow” moment. It’s all a lie. Obama didn’t win his 2nd term. He was installed as well as Biden. They are ramping up for WWIII…
Surprises me not. Pretty sure that all of Big Tech is absolutely chock full of them, and have been for years.
More likely from India. The management at Twitter is always discriminating in favor of their own kind.
Mostly foreign and would and should be called foreign election Interference
The whole thing is hilarious. Go musk…peel back all the layers and keep on peeling. Very entertaining. Please buy Fakebook next and then Instascam! Expose them all. 😆
A couple years ago Musk said Facebook is awful and he’s tempted to buy it and immediately shut it down.
Hahaha 🤣 you can’t make this stuff up.
I am concerned for Musk’s well being because he has money, intelligence and the ability to identify a problem and not only come up with solutions, but do what he can to solve them.
Elon Musk understands the huge impact a free speech platform would have on the United States and the world.
Twitter sounds like a house of cards.
I bet there’s entertainers, influencers, left wing fanatics that would be outed when there supposed million followers is really not even 5% of that.
I would think there are some legitimate numbers for some people but, Twitter is not bending over backwards for say President Trump.
It would be great to see the list of people that do not have a legitimate following.
A slogan is needed for these frauds.
“I bet there’s entertainers, influencers, left wing fanatics that would be outed when there supposed million followers is really not even 5% of that.”
And the flip side to that
I was watching Fox TV last week and twitter apparently loosened the suppression on some conservatives one particular day, maybe feeling the heat of recent scrutiny
Folks like Jesse Watters, Greg Gutfeld, and Dana Perino suddenly had tens of thousands more ‘followers’ than the day before
I’m talking 40,000 to 70,000 more – on a base of maybe 150,000 or so
And they weren’t shy about talking about it on the show
Very eye-opening
Instagram is an interesting one because you can block a famous Leftist Nut Celebrity, yet you can’t block the millions of bots/fan accounts that repost their Extreme Leftist Planned Parenthood, DNC, Democrat talking points. So they pretty much have the same problem as twitter, ( I think it is worse honestly with more users) and with Zuckerberg running that show and interfering with the election with his Zuckerbucks it gets quite interesting.
All I know is that the Twitter CEO is lying. It doesn’t take as long to tell the truth.
Pull the offer and wait till it goes thru the basement.
It’s not just Twitter.
You may remember when AOL was the world’s foremost supplier of free floppy disks. Well, it turns out they were counting every disk they mailed out as a subscriber. I have no doubt that Twitter is doing the same thing, and has been doing so almost since the beginning. Their CEO “protesteth too much” about spam accounts … I think he’s totally lying about eliminating “millions of spam accounts each day” … but I think they have for many years been selling advertisers on ad-views that were presented to non-existent accounts.
For this reason, I also suspect that they are vastly overstating their political influence.
Elon Musk suspects this, and so does Donald Trump. Both are very savvy businessmen who have seen attempts at fraud by people who were trying to do business with them. They see the signs, and so do I. Although so far they are careful not to accuse anyone [yet], “fraud on the market” is a Federal white-collar crime.
We shall very soon see.
Those advertisers may eventually be able to file lawsuits on the fraudulent-user-count billing, I’d speculate
Feds won’t prosecute if Twitter helps them amplify their siren song.
Twitter is weaponized the same as polls. It is used to shape public opinion rather than reflect it.
However, unlike polls, Twitter has revenue based on reality. Just as TV ratings drive ad rates. In both cases, HONEST ratings are demanded by customers who pay for ads. That is why you see such bad rating declines for TV and Hollywood. It isn’t because they are honest. It is because the customers require a rating system that can be audited and challenged.
The final twist for Twitter is WHO is driving those bots to shape public perception. That is where the biggest possible scandal lies. The ideological alignment of Deep State (including the Uniparty) with the observed “popularity” of leftist Tweets should be a good clue.
Every purchaser, after getting a close look under the hood, finds something to go back to try to lower the purchase price. Every seller tries to reject the argument. All part of the dance.
If it’s true that the most popular tweets of all time were followed by about 2% of Twitter users, then maybe they represent the majority of authentic human participants. What if 95% or more of Twitter is artificially generated? Maybe Twitter is entirely generated by the powers that be as a mind control operation intended to shift the Overton Window towards totalitarianism, with a few humans sprinkled in to give it an authentic feel?
Tweets are constantly quoted in almost every type of news media. Maybe almost everything on the site is artificially generated and then artificially followed so it can be cited to support positions in other forms of media.
Just a thought!
Garbage in….
Garbage out….
And, laundering info (ideology) through the usual suspects just like the dossier.
Exactly. It’s always been a Potemkin birdcage.
I’m not the expert, but I understood the cost of online ads are sometimes driven, not by “eyeballs,” which can be inflated by bots, but by clicked through sales, which advertisers would have independent direct evidence of ad value. Am I missing something?
Also, what of Musk’s closing comment about only 2% of daily active users? Is he saying those tweets’ popularity are likely faked?
I agree that Mysk’s ability to see several steps ahead sometimes resembles Presudent Trump’s.
Musk is looking for evidence of the 5% number while we are still looking for the evidence of 95% effective, safe vaccine number.
I doubt twitter’s lead council will demonstrate that she is worth the 17 million they pay her.
Then again, who could?
I think Elon either knew or he suspected the answer to his question.
Interesting how parag’s super bot detecting bot algorithms only detect/remove one side of the conversation from the twatter machine…
Massive fluctuations in follower counts after musk deal confirmed by twitter..
This appears to be organic.. move along.
Time for Musk to take out the trash.
WOW!
As stated below, they’re all commies at the twit.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/project-veritas-senior-engineer-lashes-elon-musk-admits-twitter-not-believe-free-speech-commie-fck-video/
Then you add in the Project Veritas new undercover video of the Twitter engineer casually admitting everything Twitter does and is with regard to its censorship and bias. Fun times.
Twitter is being exposed & destroyed simply by an OFFER.
by an offer and a tough guy who’s unwilling to be snowed
That’s a bigger fake than the Wizard of Oz.
tweet from Harmeet K Dhillon today:
BREAKING: @Twitter Sr. Engineer Tells Undercover Journalist That “Twitter Does Not Believe in Free Speech”; Confesses Employees at Tech Giant are “Commie as F**k”; Admits Left Wing Employees “Hate” @ElonMusk “Capitalist” Takeover Attempt
#TwitterExposed
I knew Twitler was phony.
Could Elon say “fine, if you don’t disclose then the previous board and shareholders will be open to a fraud lawsuit from advertisers and myself due to your deceptive practice. Come clean or except to be sued into the dust bin of history.”?
Kinda of like his offer to purchase, they had no choice but to accept it.
My College Linear Algebra Professor famously stated…
COMPUTER SCIENCE STUDENTS CHEAT LIKE CRAZY!!!
She was frustrated with rampant copying of coded program assignments.
Musk better do his due diligence!!!
20% of people do 80% of the work (remember of that top 20% the top 20% of that group – the top 4% of all employees – do 80% of that work or 64% of total work is done by the top 4%) and it seems like the bottom 80% know they suck and will just quit, following their friends to places like Facebook , Amazon, etc. to continue leaching.
That’s how he gets so much done at Tesla and Space X with fa less employees than big auto and big space companies.
Go Elon,, just do it!
Once again Sundance nails it!!!
I think once the Elon exposes the truth about just how many bots make up Twatter. Elon is going to own it all for pennies on the dollar or he will just take a big step back as Twatter completely collapses and burns to the ground.. This is going to be glorious !!
“Spam” verses BOTS
What about bots, Parag?
-or, do you prefer another name, obscurantist?
Get Twitter at a killer discount,,then, turn it into something we can be proud of…free speech… think of it….
President Trump puts his 2 cents in on Musk and Twitter as the Trump boomerang once again comes into play. I think Elon and Trump have much in common.
https://thebluestateconservative.com/2022/05/16/donald-trump-announces-bold-prediction-about-elon-musk-and-twitters-future/
At this point, Twitter can’t sidestep answering this by tubing the deal. Shareholder Plaintiff attorneys likely are following along and smell blood 🩸 like the “good” sharks they are.
I think Elon walks away and pays the billion $ walk away fee. And he might be selling stock as we speak. He has 10 days to report his stock sale . Again, double congrats to retigier.
If the outcome of this is to know that the only legitimate follower of Brian Stelter is his mom, it would be worth any amount of effort.
Musk has caught Twitter. This may have been the purpose of his offer. I think he is reeling them in.
Surely Musk has a due diligence team in there going through everything.
Musk has them by the short hairs.
If it’s >5%, Twitter has defrauded advertisers.
If it’s >5%, Twitter has defrauded Musk
And it’s not just the prevalence of fake users, but what those fake users are permitted to do. That defrauds advertisers by giving a fraudulent perception of Twitter user market preferences.
Plus, if Twitter suppresses some user content but not others, they’re padding their mDAU but skewing the data defrauding advertisers as well.
All of that becomes known once they sell because they won’t have their team playing their cards close to the chest.
Offering to buy Twitter has forced them to show their cards. The Twitter CEO writing a tortured explanation of how hard it is means they’re worried.
Dearie me! Twitter closed today at $37.39, down another $3.33.
And thus the reason President Trump isn’t getting back on Twitter.
If the 90% of the daily activity are Bots, Truth Social is the better platform as the President can see and verify his audience is real.
I mean why take abuse from fake Users!
By Musk saying 90%, I think he’s going no-only scorch Earth on Twitter, this also reflects poorly on Meta (aka Facebook) as they have to show investors their data!
This is literally a kick to the Groin of the Left! The Sheep of the Left are about to be show in vivid terms that they were duped on every level… from Education, Race, Socialism, and “Gender.”
It a DE-Nazification moment for the left!
Could Trump and Musk, or Musk and Nunes have made a back-room observatory deal?
If Twitter tanks, millions will head to Truth Social.
An Art of War move?
I believe President Trump’s followers were valid.
There would be no reason a Left platform such as Twitter would want to give President Trump even more followers, thus more validity that it was not just the basket of deplorables following him.
I don’t know the exact number but Trump’s followers were in the millions.
I loved reading President Trump’s tweets but was not a member of Twitter.
I believe President Trump reached double or more with his tweets.
I still get irate thinking about Twitter shutting down our President of the United States.
They tried everything to get his supporters to turn on President Trump and as each effort failed they crossed lines they never thought they would have to in order to stop the citizens from being allowed to have the President we legally elected.
I believe his follower numbers were greatly suppressed by the twit gods
Bots is why the whole Twitter site is a fraud
there should be none of them period.
Suppose Musk’s true goal in (showing interest in) buying Twitter is because he wants to destroy the company by proving/showing that 90% of its traffic is fake, and that the fakes are deliberate creations of the company so as to affect political decisions.
Bots have always been part of the Twitter business model.
This capability was and is used to attack Americans and anyone else that speaks against utopia.
| Twitter Exposed: Sr. Engineer Tells Undercover Journalist That “Twitter Does Not Believe In Free Speech”; Confesses Employees At Tech Giant Are “Commie As F**K”; Admits Left Wing Employees “Hate” @ElonMusk “Capitalist” |
https://truthtent.com/twitter-exposed-sr-engineer-tells-undercover-journalist-that-twitter-does-not-believe-in-free-speech-confesses-employees-at-tech-giant-are-commie-as-fk-admits/
Just as CNN talking heads with tiny audiences are paid like big stars.
“Build it, and they will come”.
And high draft picks in sports, who have accomplished nothing as pros yet, get paid a fortune.
As one disgruntled veteran said “Potential is a French word that means ain’t worth a damn”.
The Wizard of Pennsylvania (sorry, I’m all confused) gave a diploma to the Scarecrow because this would make him smart.
This backward logic is everywhere.
500 million user accounts ?
I had 4 x personal accounts suspended – and I couldn’t delete them .
One of which tracked user statistics for Trump and others like CTH.
(https://pokto.com)
I then closed my 1 x and only business account
My main account was:-
wlbeattie@twitter
I just checked it – they still keep me on record but in in Permanent Read Only mode WTF – is this more account number bolstering!!
Your account is permanently suspendedAfter careful review, we determined your account broke the Twitter Rules. Your account is permanently in read-only mode, which means you can’t Tweet, Retweet, or Like content. You won’t be able to create new accounts. If you think we got this wrong, you can submit an appeal.
Same exact words to me. 2020 I believe. Anyway I joined to read President Trumps
tweets. I am pro life and would post and comment on pro life pages. They never told me what I tweeted or retweeted that was against policy?? Have asked 3 times. No every time.
i am elated the Supreme Court is overturning Roe vs Wade! I have prayed for years for this barbaric murder to stop. I am amazed how God works. We have had Republican Congress Senate and President and they did nothing to overturn the horrible SC decision. They could have overturned on a vote! We have democrats in control and installed President and Supreme Court turns it around!! Thankful and heart happy. Tears or joy for the babies.
With God all things are possible.
After every evil thing twitter has been doing, Why, and Who, would ever believe a word the Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has to say?
Looking at the stock chart of Twitter – maybe $20 to $25
$54.20 is a fairy tail price
That’s pretty high for a company that is basically a Leftist Commie Enron!
I’d say $5 is fair after they clean it up, before then $0 is pretty fair considering the fraud.