The GOPe Road Map is contingent upon all 10 candidates that are part of Team Jeb remaining in the race until various points within the primary. Nine of the candidates are party insiders recruited to act as early primary state splitters (Gilmore -VA, Pataki -NY, Graham -SC, Perry -TX, Kasich -OH, Rubio -FL, Huckabee -AR, Fiorina and Christie).
This allows the Road Map to succeed with 15 to 20% support for Jeb – depending on primary state location. However, when the plan was constructed it’s obvious they never anticipated a Donald Trump candidacy.
The original plan was created to defeat Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Scott Walker (Donald Trump was never factored into the strategy). Current polling shows their strategy would be factually successful were it not for Donald Trump.
As a consequence removal of Trump was/is a priority; but everything they’ve tried to take Trump down has failed – and Jeb’s polling numbers (around 10% or lower) are now nearing the point of no return.
As much as the RNC/GOPe would like to take Trump out, it is now obvious from within the GOPe party apparatus, via their establishment media network, they are increasingly recognizing they just can’t take him down.
As an outcome of accepting this reality, it appears a new plan is in the works to promote an alternative and attempt to split Trump’s coalition. The most obvious candidate to do this is Ben Carson (next would be Carly Fiorina).
There are numerous signals now becoming visible that Team Jeb (RNC/GOPe) is working to talk up Carson.
Dana Perino, a die-hard Bush loyalist, has been working this angle for several weeks. Fox news host Megyn Kelly has also been working diligently to promote Carson as a kinder, gentler and more palatable, ie. less vulgarian, option.
Watch the reports and the news cycles closely in the lead up to the next debate September 16th and we will most likely see strong signals of this strategy. The promotion of Carson will specifically target Trump supporters – it’s doubtful the strategy could work, but depending on the primary state it might be enough to pull Trump down enough to stop the current momentum.
Donald Trump stays on top in Iowa, Ben Carson takes a leap forward: http://t.co/LXcEqfHzae pic.twitter.com/MM4sa1dafm
— The Hill (@thehill) August 30, 2015
Ben Carson has the highest favorability of GOP candidates in Iowa, new poll finds: http://t.co/KRdQqtD2q9 pic.twitter.com/0pINgwpfF1
— The Hill (@thehill) August 30, 2015
Iowa poll okay for Trump, if right, but terrific for Ben Carson, also topping favorability by very big margin.
— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) August 31, 2015