New York Coronavirus Test Shows State-Wide 14% Infection Rate – New York City 21% – Data Indicates Mortality Rate 0.5%…

Earlier today New York Governor Andrew Cuomo released initial data from 3,000 people tested for COVID-19 antibodies throughout the state.  Interestingly, though not surprisingly, the field tests were conducted on the general public who were visiting retail supermarkets and box stores (WalMart, Target, Costco, etc.).  The resulting data falls directly in line with previous CTH analysis of human interface.

The preliminary New York results show a state-wide infection rate of 13.9 percent within the sample. Which would extend to 2.7 million people state-wide.  With that infection rate, the mortality rate from the infection would drop to 0.5 percent.

The samples show an infection rate in New York City is 21.2 percent. [WATCH]

(VIA CBS) – New York’s first survey of coronavirus antibodies shows that 13.9% of those tested in the state had coronavirus antibodies in their system, meaning they have contracted and recovered from the virus, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. That suggests that 2.7 million people have been infected statewide.

The survey was taken from a sample size of about 3,000 people found outside their homes, shopping at essential businesses, such as grocery stores, which remain open. Results show antibodies in 12% of women and 15.9% of men, but a disproportionate rate of antibodies in black and Latino New Yorkers.(more)

(Reuters) “If the infection rate is 13.9 percent, then it changes the theories of what the death rate is if you get infected,” Cuomo told a daily briefing.

The survey targeted people who were out shopping, but not working, meaning they were not essential workers like grocery clerks or bus drivers but were more likely to test positive for antibodies than someone isolated at home, Cuomo said. (read more)

The direct result of this survey is that 14 percent of people in New York who interacted with retail supermarket cashiers were previously infected with the Coronavirus; or carried the coronavirus antibodies…

REPEATING – There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores.  In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; that’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent.  Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.

♦First, with approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. population penetrating through grocery outlets; and with 100% of that massive number of consumers going through checkout lanes; if the COVID-19 viral strain was as significant as claimed by the worst-case data, then supermarket cashiers would have been the highest exposed profession of U.S. workers in the entire nation.  There wouldn’t even be a close second place.

Considering that metric; and considering the overall population penetration & density within the business operation; there has not been an employee-based business disruption due to the coronavirus.  Put another way: the coronavirus has not stopped the function of the highest human interface occupation in the entire U.S. economy.

♦Secondly, think about the businesses that are closed; perhaps think about your job that may have been shut down…. now frame your risk based on the supermarket example as highest human interface and highest population penetration in any business field.

If the #1 at risk industry has operated, essentially without disruption and with almost zero substantive mitigation, while carrying the largest population exposure rate, then all other less-exposed business operations would have significantly less operational risk.

Why would anyone be concerned about opening their business?

If you take the factual outcome of the retail food industry as a measure, it would follow that other than a few proximity businesses which may need prudent modifications or remain temporarily closed (ex. modified airplane seating, concerts, stadiums or capacity seating venues etc), then all other businesses should immediately resume operations.

No other business segment within the economy is as exposed to the population as the retail food business; and yet supermarkets operated without issue.

So why shouldn’t all businesses immediately get back to work?

Perhaps a few initial modifications might be needed; but not much, and not for long.

Think about it….

This entry was posted in Big Government, Big Stupid Government, CDC, Coronavirus, Culture, Dem Hypocrisy, Economy, Infectious Disease, media bias, New York, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

182 Responses to New York Coronavirus Test Shows State-Wide 14% Infection Rate – New York City 21% – Data Indicates Mortality Rate 0.5%…

  1. bcsurvivor2 says:

    States that are in trouble happen to be blue..democrat…Right on POTUS

    Like

  2. John Drake says:

    So…0.5 percent…and that’s WITHOUT a vaccine…and it all coincided with the regular flu season and many never got vaccinated.

    According to the CDC the 2017-18 US Flu season resulted in 80,000 US deaths and over 900,000 US hospitalisations and was touted as the worst flu season in more than four decades. Less than 27 percent of Americans under age 49 were vaccinated, while just over 59 percent over age 65, the most at risk group, were vaccinated…and that season was the lowest vaccination percentage than in preceding years.

    Even with something as preventable as the flu many don’t even bother to get vaccinated…and no one gets freaked out about that.

    I’ll wager there has been more traffic to the CDC website in the last three months than the than last 10 years…

    BCNU…

    Like

  3. JohnCasper says:

    Why aren’t the Quacks Fauci and Brix wearing bags over their heads ?

    Liked by 1 person

  4. calfcreek says:

    I get what everyone wants to say about possible unknown infections but please, use your brain. They didn’t test the DEAD PEOPLE either. Yes, there were people who had it that they didn’t know about. But there were also people who died that they didn’t know had the Wuhan. You can’t count these statistics like this. They are completely unknown and unreliable. The only possible thing I can think of that would be useful is to simply count the number of dead and compare it to the average deaths. Whatever the overage, it is likely to be the Wuhan that caused it, but even that is a guess.

    Like

  5. jello333 says:

    And of course the denominator isn’t the only number that’s bee way off. Even the numerator — the actual number of deaths — has been twisted. Maybe only a little, maybe a LOT, seeing as how some of the “guidelines” are suggesting just about ANYTHING be called COVID-related.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Nattydreadbushdoc says:

      I agree with you; the numerator is inflated and the denominator is still unknown. The timeline is wrong as well.

      I keep hearing the first COVID patient arrived in the USA mid January. I returned from a business trip late December 2019 and I developed the strangest symptoms a couple weeks later.

      The doctor didn’t know what it was at the time; no one was really talking about COVID yet. However, my symptoms fit COVID perfectly. My wife got sick just as I was getting better, and the kids were fine.

      The point is, there were a lot of people on my plane, and thousands more before the travel ban. This thing has been in the USA for a lot longer than they say.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Jeffrey Coley says:

      But – to compare fairly, is the influenza denominator based on estimates/antibody tests, or lab confirmed cases?

      Like

  6. Diabolik says:

    “Why don’t our lawmakers respect our CHRISTIAN values?”

    Senate (9% jewish, 650% US over-representation)

    Michael Bennet (D-CO)
    Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
    Benjamin Cardin (D-MD)
    Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
    Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
    Brian Schatz (D-HI)
    Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
    Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
    Ron Wyden (D-OR)

    House (8% jewish, 600% US over-representation)

    David Cicilline (D-RI)
    Stephen Cohen (D-TN)
    Susan Davis (D-CA)
    Ted Deutch (D-FL)
    Eliot Engel (D-NY)
    Lois Frankel (D-FL)
    Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)
    David Kutsoff (R-TN)
    Andy Levin (D-MI)
    Mike Levin (D-CA)
    Alan Lowenthal (D-CA)
    Nita Lowey (D-NY)
    Elaine Luria (D-VA)
    Jerry Nadler (D-NY)
    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
    Dean Phillips (D-MN)
    Jamie Raskin (D-MD)
    Max Rose (D-NY)
    Jan Schakowsky (D-IL)
    Adam Schiff (D-CA)
    Kim Schrier (D-WA)
    Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL)
    Brad Sherman (D-CA)
    Brad Schneider (D-IL)
    Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)
    Susan Wild (D-PA)
    John Yarmuth (D-KY)
    Lee Zeldin (R-NY)

    Supreme Court (33.3% jewish, 2,400% US over-representation):

    Ruth Bader Ginsburg (D)
    Stephen Breyer (D)
    Elena Kagan (D)

    Like

  7. acenypd says:

    Please check your math. According to Johns Hopkins there has been approximately 21,000 deaths in NY. If 2.7 million contracted the disease in NY, the mortality rate is 21,000 divided by 2.7 million, which comes out to .007777, which is 8 thousandth of a percent. I rounded up. I went to school a long time ago, but I remember being good at math. Am I wrong?

    Liked by 2 people

    • GB Bari says:

      Your math is correct.
      We can only question the accuracy of the statistics being published.

      Like

      • Jim in TN says:

        Only in converting 0.00777 to a percentage. Multiply by 100. 0.0077 is 0.77%

        One way to ballpark is to calculate 1% of 2,700,000. Divide by 100. 27,000 is 1% of 2,700,000.

        And divide 21,000 by 27,000 and you get 0.777.

        Liked by 2 people

    • Sentient says:

      21,000 divided by 2.7 mil is .78%. It gets complicated, too, by the fact that there are cases where infection was a while back (when the denominator might have been smaller) but they – to be blunt – haven’t died yet. On the other hand, there may also be a lag until “seroconversion” (when antibodies show up). Those lags may or may not be similar and “wash” each other. There are other conundrums – like why Covid hasn’t taken off in the Bay Area. Weather? Different strain?

      On a selfish note, if they open they gyms, I’ll be there at 5 AM.

      Like

    • Frank ruiz says:

      You forgot to multiply by 100 to get %

      Like

    • Cetera says:

      Your math is incorrect. The .0077 is correct, but you aren’t done. That isn’t a percentage. You have to multiply it by 100 to get the percent. What you have is a ratio of the total deaths to total infected, not a ratio per 100 infected.

      This is assuming a best-case scenario where the antibody test is ONLY getting COVID-19 positive results, and not other coronoa virus antibody positive results (which, from what I can find, is not documented in the study).

      Quibbling with your numbers a bit, just going with the numbers in NYC with the theoretical 21.2% infection rate of an 8.4 million city population, that gives us 1.78 million infected and 15,411 dead. This is just NYC.

      That is a death rate of 0.866%. That’s fantastic. It is still higher than the flu, by about 7-8x, but lower than 1% which is good news.

      The bad news, extrapolating that out, gives us the following figures:

      Projected NYC dead, assuming 100% are eventually infected: 72,693
      Projected NYC dead, assuming only 75%: 54,519
      Projected NYC dead, assuming only 50%: 36,346

      For the entire U.S., the numbers are also easily calculated from the total population.

      Projected dead, assuming 100% infected: 2.85 million
      Projected dead, assuming 75% infected: 2.13 million
      Projected dead, assuming 50% infected: 1.43 million

      Those total infection rates will most likely occur over several waves, and over several years (two or three). This is also assuming there is no vaccine or other more-effective cure than what we have right now.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Deplorable Canuck says:

        It depends in the R0 infection value which will vary all over the country. NY will be worse case. There will be plenty of places where R0 < 1 which is ideal.

        However the math shows that in a NY type situation (probably due to mass public transport) Covid19 is around 80x as contagious as flu. Hence massively raising # infected and deaths.

        Like

        • Cetera says:

          No, it really doesn’t. As long as the R0 value is sufficient to prevent it from going extinct and disappearing completely, infections will continue, and the total infected percentage will rise. At some point, the R0 will slow down due to too many having immunity (herd immunity), but that number is guesstimated to be between 60 and 80%.

          The varying R0 number based on locality and population density may adjust the overall penetration in a given area, but that doesn’t affect the stats nationwide. It just moves the density of deaths around.

          If 50% of the nation is infected, and Wyoming is only 35% and NY is 65%, the nation is still 50%.

          Timeframe still matters, though. 2.1 million dead over three years is really bad. 2.1 million thos year is horrifying.

          And these are best-case numbers out of the study. There can be considerably worse outcomes. We have a lot of kjown unknowns, and probably quite a few unknown unknows still to come.

          Like

      • trondtveten says:

        If 14% of the population have or have had Corona, then statistically 14% of the dead (7800 every day in the USA) have the coronavirus even if Corona didn’t contribute to the death! (& If C-virus found => “C-dead”.)
        All the dead gets tested (due to the risks to the funeral workers).
        This is a huge logical short-circuit.
        Lets say 14% of those who dies have arthritis, they didn’t all die from arthritis (maybe a few did) since this is more of a handicapping & irritating disease.

        Liked by 1 person

  8. Sharon says:

    You knew you lived to an illegal alien shithole when you went to NYC.

    So enjoy and STFU.

    Like

  9. Conservatarian says:

    Am I crazy or does it seem like Fox/WSJ/Chamber of Commerce/China wants to run Mark Cuban against President Trump?

    Like

    • Marc says:

      Mark “Cuban” Chabenisky would never be elected to national office, much less President. He’s about as likable as Andrew Cuomo and half as eloquent. The man is a total technocrat and would have the CEOs of Google, FB, and Amazon running US policy.

      Liked by 1 person

  10. Ryan H says:

    So, like I said a month ago, this is not even as deadly as the common flu, yet we allow the Demonrats to destroy our freedoms and economy. Hmmmph.
    Oh, and I have been hauling essential freight into more than 75% of our great States, and have yet to see or even hear of anyone who has had this. Enough already.

    Like

  11. EnoughIsEnough says:

    Last June, my 53-year old sister-in-law passed away from the flu, after being hospitalized for 3 months. She was one of many who succumbed to this horrible virus. Thankfully, my brother never developed any symptoms. It is remarkable that two people can live in such close quarters, and for one the disease is fatal and the other is unaffected. There is much to learn about covid, but until we have accurate numbers, it is garbage in/garbage out. In February, my daughter–law called to tell me that she and my son were just getting over the worst flu that either of them had ever had. They were just so grateful that their 9-month old baby had not gotten it. Because they had recently moved thousands of miles from family, and didn’t know anyone in their new town, they were the sole caregivers of our grandbaby. They now believe that they probably had covid. If antibody tests become available, it will be interesting to see if all three of them actually had it, even though the baby never got sick. I am so grateful that President Trump is leading our great nation in these very troubling times. I have no doubt he will put all the right people in all the right places to figure this out, and after people are taken care of, get our economy working again. I say extra prayers for him each night to lessen the burden on his shoulders.

    Liked by 1 person

    • EnoughIsEnough says:

      To be clear, my sister-in-law died from flu complications, and not covid. My post was meant to highlight how viruses are random and unpredictable.

      Like

  12. And they wandered in
    From the city of St. John
    Without a dime
    Wearing coats that shined
    Both red and green
    Colors from their sunny island
    From their boats of iron
    They looked upon the promised land
    Where surely life was sweet
    On the rising tide
    To New York City
    Did they ride into the street
    See the glory
    Of the royal scam

    Like

  13. Treeper 46 says:

    This is an interesting theory, seems to have validity
    EXCLUSIVE: Dr. Rashid Buttar BLASTS Gates, Fauci, EXPOSES Fake Pandemic Numbers As Economy Collapses

    Like

  14. Fogman says:

    Outbreaks vs. Epidemics
    Whether it’s time to freak about the flu.

    By Brendan Koerner
    Dec 19, 2003 5:23 PM

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been careful to characterize the sharp uptick in flu cases as an outbreak, rather than an epidemic. What’s the difference between an outbreak and an epidemic, and where do pandemics fit into the nomenclature of disease?

    In terms of the flu, the difference between an outbreak and an epidemic is the percenatge of overall deaths caused by the disease. Every week, the CDC gathers morbidity data from hospitals in 122 cities nationwide and figures out what percentage of the decedents died of pneumonia, cancer, and other prolific killers. If the number of flu-caused deaths exceeds 7.7 percent of the total, then the United States officially has an epidemic on its hands.

    Like

  15. Mary Morse says:

    Interesting graph of predicted vs. nyt reported deaths by county, originally posted here https://cornellsun.com/2020/04/20/what-tompkins-countys-covid-19-numbers-mean/ with other data for upstate Tompkins county.

    To date, no Tompkins county residents have died from Covid. Two reported deaths are patients transfered from NYC hospitals.

    Like

  16. Sharpshorts says:

    You point out just one of many “huge logical short-circuit[s]” that are being pushed as scientific fact. Conclusions taken from illogical scientific studies are absolutely worthless

    This is war…once again and on going.
    History is replete with innumerable examples of amoral attitude weaponization:
    — a destructive force greater than all other weapons combined —

    Like

  17. mike diamond says:

    Andrew cuomo,is a total disgrace,he is the New York governor who is for aborting little babies up until the mother’s delivery date,what a evil disgraceful,dude! New York deserves a good conservative in the coming elections!

    Like

  18. Kent Clizbe says:

    For an actual physical experiment, on living human beings, (just like the cruise ship in Japan) that gives us actual data on the effects of this virus on humans:

    The USS T. Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier, was infected.

    According to latest media reports, the Navy has gathered data–testing nearly every person who was on the ship. Here it is:

    4,800 people on the ship
    4,582/4,800 were tested for the virus
    3,872/4,582 people tested were NOT infected
    710/4,582 people tested were infected
    355+/710 infected with NO symptoms
    9/710 hospitalized
    2/710 hospitalized in ICU
    1/710 death with/by the virus

    The Navy reported that “…of the 600 or so that have been infected…a majority of those, 350 plus, are asymptomatic…”

    Summary: In a petri dish environment, where people literally live on top of each other, we can assume that everyone on the ship was “exposed” to the virus.

    The vast majority of those exposed were NOT infected.
    The majority of those who were infected did NOT have symptoms.
    98% of those infected did NOT require hospitalization.
    Of those infected, 0.3% required Intensive Care in the hospital.
    Of those infected, 0.14% died.
    Of the total population exposed to the virus, 0.02% died.

    We now have excellent data. Can this virus really be regarded as a deadly scourge equivalent to the Black Plague? So deadly that the entire economic output of our country must be exterminated to deal with the virus?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4?op=1

    Like

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