ADP Payroll Loses -27k Jobs, Better Than Forecast – However, Worst is Yet to Come….

The ADP payroll report shows a drop of 27,000 jobs, better than the forecast drop of 125,000; but many fear the worst is yet to come as millions of people file unemployment claims as a result of the coronavirus shut-down.

A big unknown question surrounds the number of employees that businesses will attempt to keep on the payroll through use of the coronavirus relief funds passed by congress.

The ADP period in the latest report ran through March 12th.  Within that data Goods-producers lost 9K jobs while Services were down twice that much. Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) were the hardest hit, shedding 90K positions last month; while Large businesses (greater than 500 employees) actually gained 56K jobs; and Medium-sized businesses grew 7K through the March 12th period.

The big question surrounds how quickly small businesses can access the federal relief funds; and whether those businesses will use the incentives to retain their workers.

Associated Press – […] We get a peek at what we might expect in future employment reports — both tomorrow’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s non-farm payrolls, as well as the next few months of employment data — when we look at the ADP breakdown by sector: Trade/Transport lost 37K jobs in March, Construction was down 16K and Leisure/Hospitality -11K.

On the other hand, Education/Health Services grew by 48K positions, pretty much in-line with months past. And if there is one sector in high demand at the moment for treating the coronavirus wave, it is in Healthcare.

In fact, places like Amazon AMZN are likely to hire an increased workforce as more and more commerce is conducted via home computer and home delivery.

Pharmaceutical companies taking an aggressive stance against COVID-19 and searching for treatments and a vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson JNJ and Gilead GILD, may also bolster the employment situation, near-to-medium term. But these are sector-specific green shoots; most areas will see massive depletions of workforce. (read more)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has announced that small businesses (0 to 500 employees) and sole proprietorships can start applying for the coronavirus relief funds on April 3rd. One week later, April 10th, self-employed individuals, 1099 contractors and s-corps can apply. [Visit SBA.gov/coronavirus]

[pdf link available here]

WASHINGTON – Following President Trump’s signing of the historic Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza and Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin today announced that the SBA and Treasury Department have initiated a robust mobilization effort of banks and other lending institutions to provide small businesses with the capital they need.

The CARES Act establishes a new $349 billion Paycheck Protection Program. The Program will provide much-needed relief to millions of small businesses so they can sustain their businesses and keep their workers employed.

“This legislation provides small business job retention loans to provide eight weeks of payroll and certain overhead to keep workers employed,” said Secretary Mnuchin.

“Treasury and the Small Business Administration expect to have this program up and running by April 3rd so that businesses can go to a participating SBA 7(a) lender, bank, or credit union, apply for a loan, and be approved on the same day. The loans will be forgiven as long as the funds are used to keep employees on the payroll and for certain other expenses.”

“This unprecedented public-private partnership is going to assist small businesses with accessing capital quickly. Our goal is to position lenders as the single point-of-contact for small businesses – the application, loan processing, and disbursement of funds will all be administered at the community level,” said Administrator Carranza.

“Speed is the operative word; applications for the emergency capital can begin as early as this week, with lenders using their own systems and processes to make these loans. We remain committed to supporting our nation’s more than 30 million small businesses and their employees, so that they can continue to be the fuel for our nation’s economic engine.”

The new loan program will help small businesses with their payroll and other business operating expenses. It will provide critical capital to businesses without collateral requirements, personal guarantees, or SBA fees – all with a 100% guarantee from SBA.

All loan payments will be deferred for six months. Most importantly, the SBA will forgive the portion of the loan proceeds that are used to cover the first eight weeks of payroll costs, rent, utilities, and mortgage interest.

The Paycheck Protection Program is specifically designed to help small businesses keep their workforce employed. Visit SBA.gov/Coronavirus for more information on the Paycheck Protection Program.

  • The new loan program will be available retroactive from Feb. 15, 2020, so employers can rehire their recently laid-off employees through June 30, 2020.

Loan Terms & Conditions

  • Eligible businesses: All businesses, including non-profits, Veterans organizations, Tribal concerns, sole proprietorships, self-employed individuals, and independent contractors, with 500 or fewer employees, or no greater than the number of employees set by the SBA as the size standard for certain industries
  • Maximum loan amount up to $10 million
  • Loan forgiveness if proceeds used for payroll costs and other designated business operating expenses in the 8 weeks following the date of loan origination (due to likely high subscription, it is anticipated that not more than 25% of the forgiven amount may be for non-payroll costs)
  • All loans under this program will have the following identical features:
    • Interest rate of 0.5%
    • Maturity of 2 years
    • First payment deferred for six months
    • 100% guarantee by SBA
    • No collateral
    • No personal guarantees
    • No borrower or lender fees payable to SBA

Visit treasury.gov/cares for more information on SBA’s assistance to small businesses.

Get your paperwork together now, contact your local bank and make an appointment. You will need one year of expenses and payroll records. You can apply at your current (FDIC insured) bank. Treasury will use the FDIC system to mitigate lender risk. This means you can receive those funds deposited on the same day you apply.

This entry was posted in Bailouts, Big Government, Coronavirus, Economy, President Trump, Uncategorized, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to ADP Payroll Loses -27k Jobs, Better Than Forecast – However, Worst is Yet to Come….

  1. law4lifeblog says:

    Moreover, because of the very rich unemployment benefits being instituted and the fact the claims won’t be charged against employers, laid off employees are far more likely to file for unemployment and to do so much faster than normal.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. alice says:

    March 12th was right before everything really started falling apart. Most bans didn’t start until the following week. I know our state’s restaurant dining, bar and gym ban didn’t start until the 18th. Also restaurants had a big downturn the weekend of the 14th-15th. I suspect the expectation will be seen in the next report that covers the actual shutdown and stay at home orders.

    Like

  3. Johnny Boost says:

    The job numbers and the economy is going to force Trump to open the country back up sooner rather than later.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Kenji says:

      And the Dem’s will hang EVERY SINGLE death on PDJT after he reopens the country for business. All the leftist media outlets … including Fox … will toll bells each night … one for each Kung Flu death. The left don’t want a return to work and business. Nope. They LOVE this do-nothing shelter in place … a time when they can do their “art” and smoke their “medicine”.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. wodiej says:

    This will be plenty to get through until the virus subsides. When the liberals are defeated again, we’ll see what they will try next to defeat God.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. JohnCasper says:

    And, of course, keep in mind it takes about + 140,000 just to proportionately keep up with population growth.

    Like

  6. GB Bari says:

    Just before these numbers start to be reported as being terrible, the President will have called for an end to the shutdown because the coronavirus case numbers will be decreasing (they will start decreasing very soon)

    This entire episode will end almost as quickly as it began.

    Just a hunch.

    Liked by 7 people

    • FrankieZee says:

      The D RATS will use this in Late Sept and say the Chinese Virus has reappeared so that we will have to shut the country down again and will force absentee voting over the phone .Take that to the bank. That way they can steal the election without ever getting caught.

      Liked by 1 person

      • GB Bari says:

        It won’t work in September. Very soon (within the next few weeks) the use of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and Zinc will have cured so many patients across the country that this entire episode will come to a fast end.

        Liked by 6 people

      • gingergal says:

        They weaponized a flu virus and achieved what they have been wanting to do for three years, of course they will do it again. They got to kill thousands of Americans, scare Americans into submission, sink the economy and stock market, destroy small business, ratchet up the unemployment rate and jobless claims, force socialism on us, interfere with the Democratic primaries, eliminate MAGA rallies, did I forget anything?

        Liked by 3 people

        • honeybumjoy says:

          gingergal, you are right on all accounts. ..Also, is because President Trump now In Control of the Treasury which means, he is the BOSS of the Federal Treasury. He is getting rid of a lot of bureaucracy by EO to get the United States speed up the industry. We will survive this. We have a very dirty creatures in the DC muddy SWAMP. Let’s all come together not to loose our Republic of America. America is strong with small business across this state.
          Sundance, thank you for the hard work you do to keep the Patriots in the right frame of mind. We are strong God loving Patriotic Americans.

          Liked by 3 people

  7. Local Treeper says:

    We work with thousands of small businesses and I can say that for a large portion of them the better option is to layoff their workers rather than the PPP.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. kaste668 says:

    There will be jobs, just different than a lot of people are used to.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Merle Marks says:

    Just came from US Bank…30 year relationship…head of loans essentially in the dark as to what the process is for applying…gave me a phone number to the government to call? He said they are getting more people processing bankruptcy paperwork than pursuing PPP and SBA loans…as a business owner, I am starting to see that monies will be too late to save businesses. We are saving employees who will not have an employer…appreciate government trying to help but it has become too big to be nimble enough to help…

    Liked by 1 person

    • Eric says:

      It’s not that complicated:

      For Independent Contractors, Sole Proprietors, Owners of a Small Business and Non-Profit Organizations

      You can get a Small Business Administration loan if your business or nonprofit has less than 500 employees, even if you are self-employed or operate as a sole proprietor or independent contractor.
      Restaurants and hotels are eligible.
      Loans are available up to $10 million. The amount is based on payroll, up to $100,000 per employee.
      The loans will be forgiven if you continue paying your employees, and use the loan to pay for payroll, mortgage interest or rent, and covered utilities. Loan forgiveness will be reduced based on the reduction of workforce or salaries.
      Loans not forgiven can be repaid over the next 10 years.
      The maximum interest rate is 4 percent per year.
      Payments can be deferred for at least six months.
      Independent contractors and sole proprietors are eligible for emergency Economic Injury Disaster Loans without providing personal guarantees for advances, and loans up to $200,000.
      You can get a disaster loan and grant of $10,000 to pay for capital expenses.
      This grant does not need to be repaid.
      Apply by contacting the SBA.
      If the SBA does not forgive the loan, you can defer paying your share of payroll taxes for 2020. Half of what you owe is due Dec. 31, 2021; the other half is due Dec. 31, 2022.
      The act increases the deductibility of business interest expense for 2019 and 2020 to 50 percent of Adjusted Gross Income.
      Self-employed individuals are eligible for up to 39 weeks of unemployment compensation, through Dec. 31.

      Liked by 1 person

      • WSB says:

        If I have a W9 for 2019, mortgage, water and utility bills, is that enough paperwork? Sel-employed…I filled out the form and will speak to my bank manager tomorrow. Will wait for the 10th.

        Like

    • Alleycats says:

      Perhaps you should return to your bank or call with the information from Sec. Mnuchin. It is very cut and dried what Treasury has put in place.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Merle Marks says:

        Outlines are cut and dried…SBA has not specified to lender what documents are required…searching SBA weblinks there are conflicting lists of required documents…taking EVERYTHING to bank gets you blank stares…for a onslaught of loan applicants to start in 48 hours, this is disheartening…

        Liked by 1 person

  10. gingergal says:

    I think i’m on an island when I say this isn’t worth destroying the economy and losing jobs over, even in the short-term.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Barry from Victoria says:

    There’s a set of videos on the pricipia-scientific.org site, taken by ordinary people, who have filmed empty hospitals where the media have reported lineups and crowding. These clips were taken in Hawaii, Germany, Kentucky, New York. Could it be that the whole thing is one big lie? In this age of disinformation it’s hard to know what to believe. But if it is a lie, and it becomes widely known to be a lie, I think a lot of people are going to be very, very angry. So far Victoria is coping fairly well. Most commodities are available, although flour is a little scarce. (I bake my own bread so that matters to me) The worst part of it is the social isolation. My building is a subsidized seniors and low income establishment and many of us have no family and few friends, and now we are not allowed to use the common room where we can socialize. Probably, the psychological effects are going to be severe for people like us, and there must be myriads like us out there. Although I don’t doubt that a severe health emergency is upon us I question the wisdom of destroying our economy over it.

    Liked by 2 people

    • WSB says:

      Have been seeing these. Sure looks looks the Trayvon Martin case. A completely fabricated case around bad judgement.

      Maybe that and other cases were the trial balloons…

      Like

  12. Both Walmart and our local Ingles grocery store chain are hiring.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. XO says:

    It seems like the media frames this as the choice of two extremes – everyone stays inside OR everyone is at risk to die.

    I don’t think that’s the case, but there isn’t enough maturity on the left to have an intelligent conversation about other options.

    At some point, it is all going to break down. We are basing this extreme decision on very little actual data.

    The only way it all works is if China comes out of this in ruins. Maybe we are on this path because the President knows that is the most likely ultimate outcome. At this point, I believe China must be destroyed.

    Like

  14. Fromseatoshinningsea says:

    SCAM FRAUD. We’re being taken to the cleaners on a hoax. Sure folks got sick its a flu. This is a brilliantly diabolical global cartel China scam. And we’re so well trained and conditioned we’re willfully surrendering our freedom to assemble and we’ve turned our homes into internment camps. That economist for son of a wbore Barry Sotero that said Americans are stupid is right. We fell for it.

    Like

  15. Mike in a Truck says:

    Nine months from now BABY BOOM! What will that generation be known as…..MAGA Babies!

    Like

  16. scrap1ron says:

    Here’s Erie County NY County Executive Mark Polancarz publicly threatening to shutdown landscape businesses over doing “new” work, putting down mulch and plantings. Which at this time of year is all they have. And yes, he’s a Democrat. One of my nephews works in the business in that county, which is what caught my attention. These business owners need to file a lawsuit. Actions like this that go unopposed are how police states are born. Start at the 40 minute mark.

    Like

    • WSB says:

      Cuomo just did. We received a notice in Dutchess County this evening..

      I was going attempt property maintenance, tree trimming and power washing. Now, no luck, and I cannot handle it myself.

      Like

  17. CNN_sucks says:

    Lesson learned. Don’t vote democrats.

    Like

  18. TigerBear says:

    ECONOMY 3 years to build, 3 months to destroy!

    Liked by 1 person

  19. mr.piddles says:

    Tucker just outlined Chad Wolf going out of his way today to approve work visas. Over 100K, and apparently, many more than what is required by law.

    Liked by 1 person

    • WSB says:

      Our TV was lucky Taller Half did not have shoes on….we are SO pizzed.

      Remember when we all realized that those provisions made it into legislation? And now, PT cabint member is all in?

      SOOOOOOOO PIZZZZZZED!!!!

      Like

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