Beyond Expectations: ADP December Payroll Report – 271,000 Job Gains Recorded…

Tomorrow, Friday January 4th, the U.S. Labor Department will release the December jobs report which will offer an in-depth look at the labor market including: job additions, the unemployment rate, the labor participation rate and actual wage growth.

In the interim, the ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data. Their review of national payroll ledgers shows a stunning; 271,000 jobs added in December.

(link to ADP datalink to pdf)

FOX Business – […]  “We wrapped up 2018 with another month of significant growth in the labor market,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Although there were increases in most sectors, the busy holiday season greatly impacted both trade and leisure and hospitality. Small businesses also experienced their strongest month of job growth all year.”

The better-than-expected number can be attributed to good weather last month and strong holiday hiring, despite a tumultuous month for the markets, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi.

“Businesses continue to add aggressively to their payrolls despite the stock market slump and the trade war,” he said in a statement. “Favorable December weather also helped lift the job market. At the current pace of job growth, low unemployment will get even lower.”   (more)

Also released today was an interesting snippet from inside the Bureau of Labor Statistics review of metropolitan unemployment regions:

…In November, Ames, IA, had the lowest unemployment rate, 1.2 percent.

El Centro, CA, and Yuma, AZ, had the highest unemployment rates, 18.1 percent and 14.9 percent,respectively…. (link)

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48 Responses to Beyond Expectations: ADP December Payroll Report – 271,000 Job Gains Recorded…

    • Orville R. Bacher says:

      Bringing jobs home will grow this country back to health. Wall Street is a mirage, a sign post of churning, skimming and deception.
      Mr. President- stiff arm Wall Street, the Chattering Monkeys, and the Chamber of Foreign Commerce. And give Powell a bit of breathing room- normalizing interest rates is a good thing, and it is knocking the hell out of China.

      Liked by 5 people

  1. Deplorable_Infidel says:

    OurVSGPDJT just announced the good news at a surprise press briefing. Things are so good that the illegals are just clamoring to get in any way they can -which is why we need THE WALL.

    Liked by 7 people

  2. WSB says:

    Mark Zandi is a wizard!! A true genius…

    “The better-than-expected number can be attributed to good weather last month and strong holiday hiring, despite a tumultuous month for the markets, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi.”

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Gunrunner says:

    Appears Main Street is rolling along nicely.

    Liked by 7 people

    • fleporeblog says:

      They can’t STOP 🛑 the Economic Train 🚂! She was in mothballs for the past three decades. Our President has her running close to full capacity. Either you decide to get on the Train 🚂 or run over by it!

      Liked by 16 people

      • Eddie Baby says:

        The Fed will jack up interest rates faster.

        Liked by 2 people

        • jnr2d2 says:

          Yep. They want us to be like Europe — 1-2 % per year. Can’t show them up. And we need to “bribe” the rest of the world to love us, and spend endlessly on small wars — the status quo you know! After all what is 10,000 or more deaths of our “cannon fodder” children, and pissing money down those third world hell-holes.

          Like

        • Truth seeker says:

          Exactly. That was his prediction. That was a promise.

          Like

      • Skippy says:

        This is a good 6 minute video I viewed supporting your words:

        No Fed Hikes, 15% Market Rebound And More: Here Are Byron Wien’s “10 Surprises” For 2019 It’s that time again.
        https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-03/no-fed-hikes-15-market-rebound-among-byron-wiens-10-surprises-2019

        Like

        • Blackstone Vice Chairman and former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Byron Wien sounds like a GLOBALIST ANTI-TRUMPER SHILL, whose predictions for 2017-2018 failed miserably … and who appears to have learned nothing in his predictions for 2019.

          Liked by 2 people

      • Notice what looks like emerging “Rate Compression”…
        • Fed Funds Rate just ROSE to 2.5%
        • 10-Year Treasury Yield just DROPPED to 2.553 on 1/3/19 from 3.232 on 11/8/18

        Liked by 1 person

      • Takeaways from the ADP Charts:

        • CONSOLIDATION Stage is ending, as Obama’s massive multiplication of Part-Time Jobs at the expense of Full-Time Jobs under Obamacare Workweek Rules & Start-up Suppression (with no differentiation in the stats) has been REVERSED.

        • Consistent growth at ~200k jobs monthly, now beginning a BREAK-OUT stage.

        • Mid-Size Company Job Generation (500-999) is now closing the gap vs. Large-Company Job Generation (1000+).

        Issues:

        • When will Entrepreneur and Small-Company Job Generation begin to spike under MAGAnomics?

        • When will [Globalist] Large Companies’ RE-SHORING to Make & Service in the USA begin a surge in Large-Company Job Generation?

        Liked by 2 people

  4. Tony in LA says:

    And this will be the only place on earth the “better than expected” jobs report will be reported. Sad!

    Liked by 2 people

    • highdezertgator says:

      Talk it up! Anytime I can … I interject “how great the economy is doing”. Example” “This is best economy I have seen since 1970…. including the boom in mid 80’s”. also “This is what a Main Street economy looks like….. more jobs than people to hire….. people are getting raises.” also “Tax cuts work!” or “Trade deficit is turning around”
      I am in real estate services so have contact with people who are at least somewhat interested in economic news. Many nod their head and some their eyes glaze over. Stay out of the economic wonky word salad. Keep it simple and POSITIVE!

      Liked by 4 people

  5. chojun says:

    Awesome – and with the Fed destroying the QE magic money that Yellen/Obama dumped into the equities markets so that he could point to a “robust recovery” and “growing” economy, I think we’ll see investors starting to take a 2nd look at investment here in the US.

    I’m not a guru in economics but with the rising funds rates due to Fed activity resulting in bonds being more attractive, I have to imagine that corporations will look more seriously at issuing corporate bonds for investment – they can certainly point to strong financials as basis for investment.

    At my company our financials are very strong and continue to get stronger but our stock price has been slashed in half since Nov. Basically I think the stock market is going to bottom out pretty soon.

    Liked by 2 people

    • map says:

      No. The Fed’s quantitative easing program is designed to suck liquidity out of the market beyond simply removing inflation. This will eventually hit the real economy.

      The process by which the fed adjusts the Federal Funds rate removes capital from the economy and eventually it will show up in employment figures.

      Like

      • chojun says:

        Okay help me to understand this. QE injected money into the market. Now the Fed is reducing their balance sheet and simultaneously destroying this equity by raising rates. Is that not correct?

        Like

      • I’m not sure what you mean by certain terms you are using. ‘Liquidity’ usually means ‘credit availability’ or ‘unencumbered financial assets’. Under that definition QE was/is simply a tsunami of liquidity.

        The adjustment of rates means that it costs more to rent money, that’s what interest rates actually determine. It does not remove ‘capital’ from the economy. ‘Capital’ is investment of resources (financial and otherwise) in ‘productive activity’. To the extent that business investment is funded by renting money, an increase in interest rates can adversely affect investment, but all investment is speculative (‘past returns may not reflect future returns’), so an increase in interest rates does not ‘remove capital’ from the economy, it only slows the rate of credit-driven speculation, including investment in ‘hard businesses’.

        The American economy has been ‘upside down’ on savings for a very long time. The result has been that the banks cannot use savings as a basis for the renting of money. Low interest rates, poor economic performance (mostly as a result of poor trade management) and astoundingly inefficient ‘Keynesian’ economic practices (whereby the government borrows money to spend on theoretically-productive ‘government programs’), has created a vicious cycle where ‘liquidity’ has been accomplished by simply creating more ‘money’ out of thin air (with the US taxpayers on the hook for the interest) and an inflation that exceeds the interest rate (detering savings) forcing the need to create more money out of thin air.

        Like

    • Fake Nametag says:

      Higher corporate bond rates are bad for business growth. It means companies have to pay more interest to borrow the same amount of capital. What it ultimately means is projects with lower rate of return (the ones that will no longer be profitable due to the increased cost of borrowing) will no longer be funded (i.e. the companies simply choose not to pursue that business). This means less hiring and less GDP growth. Might not be bad, but will be less than it would have been with lower interest rates. Theoretically.

      Higher interest rates and higher corporate bond rates are great for savers though.

      What will be interesting will be how this super strong job growth market might play into negotiations. If hiring stays this strong, at some point in time wage growth will really take off (great for all of us working people). At some point the lack of available employees will make it desirable to bring in some more immigrant labor. Would we be willing to trade this for the full $25 billion for the wall and perhaps an interest rate cut (I know the Fed decides this but…)? These are the kind of win-wins our politicians never seem to be able to find. Can our magnificent President use his magic wand here?

      Liked by 1 person

      • Arrest Soros says:

        The key to a long term successful economy is the efficient allocation of resources.
        When interest rates are artificially low, as in The Kenyan’s time, then even the inefficient, not so well run businesses become profitable and take business away from the more efficient ones. THIS IS HOW BUBBLES ARE CREATED

        When interest rates are at reasonable levels, those inefficient businesses have difficulty making a profit and go out of business. Others think twice before getting into business. This situation may cause some to lose their jobs at these inefficient businesses, but opportunities at the efficient businesses are created.
        Much better for long term stability. Much less boom/bust situations.
        Fed rates should be around 4% IMHO.

        Liked by 2 people

        • railer says:

          Yeah, but a 1/4 point rise per quarter is irresponsible, particularly when the Fed is also dumping $50B of stale QE paper every month. I believe Trump’s right, they’re constricting too hard too fast, after 8 years of buying $80B per month QE paper and 0% rates. The market’s 2 year rate just dropped below the Fed rate, which tells me Trump was correct that the Fed was reading it wrong. They should leave it be for a while, and show some flexibility on dumping that paper. If it takes 8 more years to dump it, fine.

          Liked by 2 people

        • cthulhu says:

          Generally agree — interest rates help distinguish good, efficient practices from wasteful, bad practices. The period of zero interest rates meant that the distinction was intentionally blurred. This was deliberately done for government to invest in California bullet trains to nowhere, Solyndra, Lesbian Studies departments in universities, Tesla subsidies, and cash for clunkers. The Austrian School of Economics refers to this as “malinvestment”.

          Most things are initially valued at what you pay for them. With malinvestment, however, there will come a time when you have to admit that there is no good economic return — or any return — from the practice, and the things have to be written-off. This is generally done with much weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth — but it is not the writing-off that is bad, it was the initial malinvestment in the first place.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Fake Nametag says:

          Thank you for this comment. I have long been uneasy about the low interest rates. I could not put my finger on exactly why. Your logic has provided the missing link. I’ve been generally happy that rates are rising, because I would like to see what I consider normal rates (ones that allow CDs to return 5-6% and savings accounts a few percent). I’ve been unhappy about it considering what it will do to our budget deficit and the possibility of hard landing of housing and stock market. I now see that it’s better for the rates to slowly rise back to normal. Hopefully the Fed will thread the needle, get us back to normal, and not blow up the economy in the process. It’s looking pretty good so far…

          Like

      • TheLastDemocrat says:

        When it is worth it to businesses, borrowing money is worth it. As the economy gets stronger, the value of borrowed money gets greater.

        One way to see this: the more sure payout from a five year million dollar gamble, the greater the value, or cost, of course that money.

        The. Greater the prevailing interest rate, the more eager a bank is to loan it. Versus parking it. Interest rate near zero begs banks to bank rather than lend.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Zero Fed Funds rates also invite member banks’ Investment-Banking sides to GAMBLE in the derivatives market and to float funds to Private Equity and Hedge Funds to trade on margin. Opinions now surfacing on a Bubble. (Varney Show)

          Like

          • TheLastDemocrat says:

            Thanks, BKR – that is what I refer to when I say “parking money,” versus lending it.

            i can invest my own money, or park it in a CD or savings account. Businesses can grow in various ways, including by borrowing money. If banks are not too eager to lend, then businesses do not have that option.

            This is one of those see-saw / happy medium aspects of the economy.

            Liked by 1 person

      • Let’s bear in mind that the Trump Tax Cuts left companies with a YUGE annual windfall in Retained Earnings to invest, rather than borrowing, and a first-year Expensing of Capital Investment to accelerate project payback … to reinvest yet again.

        The big – and IMO crooked – LOSERS are companies that borrowed for Stock Buybacks … typically to give Insider Executives a way to bail before stock prices declined, at other shareholders’ expense.

        Liked by 1 person

    • railer says:

      The stock market skyrocketed with Trump’s election, +40% and more. That was obviously a bubble and much of that has been given back. Those who earn are going to find their stock rising, like a real market is supposed to do. The market is right now finding out who those are. The shysters have been chasing Tech like zombies, and that’s worked for 10 years or so. Once they get off that, they’ll get around to real companies and products that earn cash.

      Liked by 2 people

  6. Piper77 says:

    Labor Dept will announce something like 165,000. They always disappoint.

    Like

  7. MIKE says:

    If these were the Fake Usurping Commie Kenyans’ ** numbers, they would be having a honorary parade right down Broadway, tomorrow at noon.
    BUT, since it is great news in the Trump era, it will be obfuscated and ignored.

    **acronym optional

    Liked by 2 people

  8. rightmover says:

    And yet the market got slaughtered again today.

    Like

  9. weirdflunky says:

    I work in a mid sized construction company. I could hire 5 truck drivers tomorrow if I had the applications. If it ever stops raining in my part of the country we’ll be swamped. We already have more work under contract than we can do.

    We haven’t had “too much work” since the middle of Barky’s first term.

    Imagine what the economy would be if the entire gov’t-media complex wasn’t actively opposing the President. Not help him, just not trying to stop him.

    Liked by 7 people

  10. woohoowee says:

    American Prosperity brought to us by PT45 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Monadnock says:

    My employer is publicly-held (i.e. you can buy stock) and is run out of Scandinavia. The business model is absolutely maddening.

    I work with some of the best people you could imagine, and we hit our budget figures month after month.

    However, we are chronically understaffed to the point that department heads have been declining to quote some jobs because we just don’t have the manpower to take on the work.

    But because we keep hitting our numbers at current staffing levels, management things “Ah! We’ve got a great business model!”

    Problem is, we’re being worked to death, AND we are missing out on additional work that we could easily get IF we were staffed up to handle it.

    The economy is humming, people, and there’s money to be made out there. The economic pie is finally expanding (above 3.0% GDP); don’t miss this opportunity!!!

    Liked by 2 people

  12. JohnCarlson says:

    That’s two months worth in one month.

    Like

  13. MaineCoon says:

    “Businesses continue to add aggressively to their payrolls despite the stock market slump and the trade war,”

    Main Street beats out Wall Street yet again!

    Like

  14. tonyE says:

    But, but, but, but the gurus in Wall Street were predicting a terrible report! We are in a horrendous Depression, the Mother of all Recessions….

    Layoffs coming big time…. in Wall Street.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. railer says:

    Very nice jobs report. Heavily weighted in construction, manufacturing, transportation, utilities and warehouse. That’s Main Street and MAGA. The others will follow along if these are in order.

    Capital investment is up 10% this year, and coming off last year’s increase. That’s the seed corn. Fundamentals are good when that’s good. We’re making progress.

    Liked by 2 people

  16. Mike diamond says:

    The stock market is down because Nancy Pelosi is speaker of the house and maxin e waters is on the banking comittee! It’s not Apple stocks,that not the real problem!

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Bugsdaddy says:

    From the Employment Situation Survey (Dept of Labor):

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 312,000 in December. Job gains occurred
    in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, manufacturing, and
    retail trade. Payroll employment rose by 2.6 million in 2018, compared with a gain of
    2.2 million in 2017. (See table B-1.)
    https://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

    Like

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