11:00pm Advisory: Hurricane Florence – Interests in Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States Should Monitor…

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

[National Hurricane Center] At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday. (link)

The concerning aspect to this storm is the possibility it may make landfall and hover, wobble and position in place, on the eastern seaboard; very similar to Hurricane Harvey in Houston Texas last year.  –SEE HERE (hit play)  Under this scenario major flooding and massive ‘prolonged’ (week +) power outages would be anticipated.

For those in the southeast and mid-atlantic; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead.  Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Tuesday night the decision time-frame. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.

DAY ONE (Today)

  • Determine Your Risk
  • Make a Written Plan
  • Develop and Evacuation Plan

DAY TWO (Monday)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Assemble and Purchase Hurricane Supplies
  • Contact Insurance Company – Updates
  • Secure Important Papers.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Strengthen and Secure Your Home
  • Make Evacuation Decision for your Family.

DAY FOUR (Wednesday)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
  • Flex Time

DAY FIVE (Thursday)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Assist Your Neighbors
  • Re-Evaluate w/ Storm Update
  • If Needed – Evacuate Your Family

Communication is important.  Update your contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.  Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.

Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status.

Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storms path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.

Due to coastal populations, a southeast storm means adding almost a day to any movement plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.

One possible proactive measure is to make a list of hotels further inland that you would consider evacuating to.  Make that list today/tomorrow and follow updates of the storms’ progress.

Depending on later information you might call in advance and make a reservation; you can always cancel if not needed.  It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance.  Being proactive reduces stress.  Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go.   Trust me, it’s worth it.  Protect your family. Make the list of possibilities today, make the booking decision in the next 48 hrs.

Look over the National Hurricane Center resources for planning assistance.

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118 Responses to 11:00pm Advisory: Hurricane Florence – Interests in Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States Should Monitor…

  1. sundance says:

    I don’t like promoting drama, but people really do need to take this storm seriously.

    If nothing happens, good. Consider the preparation *a practice drill* to sharpen your skills, help you learn what timing is needed, and make you better for the next one.

    Being prepared, and keeping your family safe, is the priority. Period. Never get upset if the storm doesn’t come; be thankful. Consider all preparation as a drill and hope you don’t need it.

    Liked by 9 people

  2. joeknuckles says:

    I’m out here on the west coast where hurricanes don’t hit, so I’m no expert. However, don’t the models usually show a course that veers more to the right because of the rotation? I don’t recall seeing any past storms taking such a direct path west. I hope this predicted path is wrong and it spins harmlessly toward the North Atlantic.

    Liked by 1 person

    • L. E. Joiner says:

      Way toward the North Atlantic, please; northeast, not north. Otherwise it hits us in New England! /LEJ

      Liked by 2 people

      • Minnie says:

        And Long Island, which sticks out like a sore thumb.

        Please and Thank You.

        Liked by 4 people

        • George Hicks says:

          Minnie,
          We bought a backup generator that is being delivered tomorrow but it won’t be installed before Florence because of the ridiculous hoops the town makes you jump through to get a building permit. So if my luck holds out, we will lose power for a few days while I have an un-installed generator sitting in my back yard. Once it’s installed, everything will be fine for the rest of the year.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Cathy M. says:

            George,
            Re generator-Late is better than never 😉

            you likely know but most don’t.
            Don’t forget to fill all of your bathtubs with water in case the water system is shut down. You can’t flush the Toilets If the city shuts down the water (usually due to contamination). A couple buckets of water usually does the trick. During my 1st hurricane we had to use the water from my neighbor’s swimming pool to flush.
            But I would use the facility very sparingly.

            I’ve lost track of how many hurricanes I lived through. The 1st I recall was Hurricane Camille in 1969. 174 mph winds & massive flooding.

            Like

            • blondegator says:

              Old Cali saying, as Mr. BG reminds me during water shortages:

              If it’s brown, flush it down, if it’s yellow, let it mellow. Particularly apt in post-hurricane scenarios, where your “wastable water” is at a premium. If your city regularly shuts down the water plant in storm-type situations, store as much potable water as possible, and fill up every available vessel with non-drinking water, too. There is no such thing as too much water in this scenario.

              Liked by 1 person

    • usually your right.. But in this case, a “Bermuda High” is building in around virigina preventing Flo’s recurve..
      AND a incoming “through”, from the Ohio Valley is slamming the breaks on Her..
      Essentially, She comes ashore and stops,, spinning down dumping (If forecasts are correct) around 3 or 4 FEET of Rain… Anywhere from Charlotte, to Raleigh..

      Biblical type rain(s) ..

      Like

    • SalixVeridi says:

      I’m here in the Carolinas. I remember Hurricane Hugo back in the late 80s. It was supposed to just hit the coast, and suddenly veered straight at us in the center of the state. It left an entire mess behind, no electricity, etc… Hurricanes can be tricky and pesky things!

      Like

  3. sundance says:

    Liked by 3 people

    • wheatietoo says:

      Multiple hits lining up to happen in rapid succession…this is Not Good.
      😦

      Like

    • dbobway says:

      Howdy Folks,
      I have got to put in my 2 cents worth.
      I lived in Wilmington from 93′ to 2011. We got hit or nicked by 16 Hurricanes in that time.
      First and foremost, if you live on the coast of the Carolina’s. Hurricane prep should happen every June till November every year. Fight or flight for individuals and Families need to take one piece of advice from we who made that decision, 4 or 5 times a year.
      If your going to leave don’t wait. If your not, assess your location for how high above sea water you are, How well built is the place you live. If where your at doesn’t work but you can’t leave, find your shelters and bring your own food and water.

      I have 2 kids on the coast north of Wilmington, NC. So I’m going thru my decision making process just like I did when I lived there.

      Florence would be the first storm in tracking history that would hit the Atlantic coast,
      from 58 degrees West and 24 degrees north in the direction it is headed. The wall or front coming south into the Virginia’s told by the weather news, is not nearly strong enough to compete with the Gulf stream where the warmest water lives. I will start worrying about my kids and Florence by Wednesday. If they lived in New England, would cause me more concern. The gulf stream is heading south to north and is a rail road track for hurricanes. Floyd in 98′ was headed straight for Florida causing the largest evacuation in history. Millions of cars full of people headed up I-95 to escape. When Floyd a Cat. 4 hit the gulf stream it tuned North almost 90 degrees and paralleled the escaping folks right into the storm. Floyd hit Wilmington, NC and rained the east half of the state into a giant lake. This stranded the very people trying to escape Floyd, for weeks in some cases.
      If the next 2 storms travel through 15 to 20 degrees North at the same longitude will be much more worrisome for me.

      Remember this is my personal opinion. All of us have to make our own decisio0ns on the safety of our love ones.

      Like

  4. MontanaMel says:

    SD – I concur. The time to plan and take “steps to enable” is now. IF this goes to CAT 4 prior to LF; and does it wobble dance as indicated by many models….the time to take “action” is soon upon us/you in the SC/NC/VA areas and shores…this is NOT going to “just be a beach road area event! Much of this same area is already “ground saturated” from multi storms during the past month(s), mostly due to the Grand Solar Minimum effects now manifest. As such, “run-off” is going to start sooner and flows will be heavier then normal earlier. With the “leading bands” making LF long before the eye will start this action long before most think it possible…early bands of moisture could be as far as 12 hours before the eye touches land…long enough to disrupt delayed travel plans with wash-outs and general flooding!

    Matt – I concur as well… a wobble for 2 days with 4 to 6 inches per hour falling for most of it is tough to understand for most Americans… Spending time near the Equator (Nigeria & Singapore) convinced me that I couldn’t grow webs between my toes fast enough to tread water!…

    Get the word out – tell it as it is…. nothing wrong with beating this dead horse…DRY RUN evac’s are a GOOD IDEA….teaches you the land marks to watch for, know where the secondary connecting roads are, with their “out of sight” gas stations, etc… Remember to carry your universal “key” known as a 36″ bolt cutter….IF YOU NEED TO LEAVE…DO SO BEFORE WEDNESDAY mid-morning….O’dark thirty is better… You have never seen a mess until you have seen a million cars using a 1/2 millions worth of road at the same time…ugly! Check-6

    Liked by 3 people

    • Rick says:

      Grand Solar Minimums, you know it’s only a matter of time before we start hearing that man-made climate change caused this.

      Liked by 3 people

      • wheatietoo says:

        Yep, that’s pretty much a given, isn’t it.

        But these things have been happening on our planet, long before mankind started playing with chemistry sets or building combustion engines.

        Our climate…changes.
        It is in a state of perpetual change and has been since forever.

        Liked by 3 people

    • cdquarles says:

      Indeed. This wasn’t a tropical storm. It was a winter storm. The area is hilly and the city is in a valley. The people generally don’t know how to drive in snow, because it so rarely snows. Yes, indeed. Being stuck in a rolling parking lot as 1 million people try to get out before they get frozen in. (Well, 1 million, strictly speaking, was hyperbole, but, still, more cars on the road than the road can handle, in a bad weather situation, is scary and dangerous. Fortunately, I don’t recall anyone dying that day.)

      Like

  5. Running Fast says:

    Also note the Blue Ridge Mtns, or any coastal mtns, will see massive rainfall and flooding of rivers and creeks. If you have bridges between you and civilization be ready to be cut off.

    SD I agree this is going to be a bad one. Likely hits land and veers due north following the coastline

    Liked by 1 person

    • Red says:

      Yep, and it’s going to make a right turn eventually after landfall. One of my boys and my only Grandbaby are in WNC. I’m watching this one…mountains are flash flood, mudslide nightmares!

      Liked by 1 person

  6. JX says:

    Earlier today I perused a few state emergency management plans for SC and NC. I think the evacuation order for coastal areas will be given 36 hours prior to landfall. So that means around noon on Wednesday. I think I-40 will be reversed to westbound only from Wilmington to I-95. I-26 westbound only from Charleston to Columbia. It’s possible 95 will be closed, particularly after the storm (it happened with the last hurricane). Personally, I like to be ahead of the herd. There’s less traffic, and better opportunities for gas and lodging. If I were in the strike zone I’d be on the road by Tuesday afternoon.

    Liked by 3 people

    • auntiefran413 says:

      I’ll send your comment onto my granddaughter who’s just moved to Charleston. She’ll be heading for her mom’s/my daughter’s home just north of Atlanta and might not have left early enough. This will be a God send for her.

      Liked by 1 person

    • You are “correct” I-40 & 74/76 to Lumberton, outbound Wilmington will be reversed.. It WILL BE “bumper to Bumper” all the way to 95.. (Benson & Dunn)..
      Or take the “scenic route” Old 421 north..

      Like

  7. Red says:

    And remember for those who have never been through a storm, Hurricanes have tornados, and the tornados are rain wrapped. You won’t hear them because of the wind and you won’t see them either. The feeder bands will just keep coming it will affect a large area….flooding comes later….Prayers for all, Red.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. The Devilbat says:

    I flew into Charlotte, NC from London the day after Hurricane Hugo hit. I had never seen anything like it. Trees had been uprooted and thrown through houses. Downed trees blocked many roads and there was no power where I was for over a week. Hopefully this storm will not be as bad.

    One thing to remember. If the storm does hit hard, there is a high risk of criminal activity such as home invasion and burglary. Be sure to have your firearms clean and loaded just in case.

    For those who don;’t approve of gun ownership, I would not be writing this tonight had I not been carrying a Smith & Wesson .357 magnum on my person a number of years ago.

    My carrying that gun saved both myself and my wife’s life from a group of thugs.

    Liked by 8 people

    • 7delta says:

      I don’t usually worry too much about my local area, 200 miles inland (SC), but since we never know where the wobblers will go, we do prepare for power outages, wind and heavy rain, just in case. What we get depends on where the storm comes in, more often from ones that hit just right in the Gulf. Ones that come in along the coast generally quickly veer north up the coast line, but Hugo was a doozy. Hugo was a direct angled hit into Charleston that was supposed to track up I-26, through the middle of the State, toward my neck of the woods, but veered off onto I-77. I’m about an hour to the southwest of Charlotte. Friends from Charleston went to stay with friends in Charlotte. It was so bad in Charlotte, the evacuees wondered why they bothered to leave Charleston. 

      Liked by 4 people

    • TatonkaWoman says:

      The damage done through the NC Piedmont from Hugo’s winds, I believe, is still unmatched. What concerns me more about the predictions for Florence is up to 14″ of rain as far inland as the Triad area.

      Liked by 5 people

      • 7delta says:

        Yeah, Charlotte got 90 mph winds and tornadoes. We were prepared, but ended up only getting thunderstorm-like wind gusts and some rain. Nothing like Charlotte got. That area really did take a beating.

        Agree that excessive rain is a big concern inland. I’ve seen so much rain from hurricanes that it washed out roads and flooded areas in the WNC mts. We’ve already had a wet year. Seems like it started raining in Feb. and didn’t let up until around June, but even then, we just had a longer stretch of days between downpours. Streams, rivers and reservoirs are pretty full. Fortunately, here and in the mts, we’re on high ground, away from slide risks, but not everyone is. I just keep praying and pushing on Florence to go north, out into the cooler waters of the Atlantic. 

        Like

      • More like 40″ I seen the detailed Model maps..

        Liked by 1 person

        • 7delta says:

          I’ve not seen the newest predictions, but I’m in the Upstate, toward the mts., not far from the NC line. We usually get more of the outer periphery stuff, though we have gotten 10″ or so as one comes through.Those are the ones that tend to be from the Gulf, with a lot of moisture still feeding it, but I remember a few from the Atlantic with a lot of rain and wind. Same Gulf moisture scenario usually brings our biggest snows, but the biggest snow I remember came from a Siberian Express. IOW, anything is possible, especially if Flo stalls. I heed your warning. 40 inches! Holy cow! I’ve upped my alert system. Thanks for the head’s up.

          Before I hit post, my cell phone dinged: Governor McMaster has ordered the entire coastline to evacuate. Turn Flo, turn north to open ocean.

          Liked by 1 person

  9. keeler says:

    Based on the current track looks like Florence is headed for the Cape Fear, which of all the places for a major hurricane to hit the US is probably the “best.” Coastal NC is one of the least densely populated and developed areas of the East Coast, and is probably the least dense and least developed. Wilmington has just over 110,000 residents, and the metro area about 260,000… nothing to sneeze at to be sure but not a metropolis along the lines of New Orleans, Miami, or Houston. The region is an area with lots of swampland that is designed to flood . The tourist season is just about over, and NC is very proactive in closing down and evacuating in any event. For the most part coastal residents have the common sense and experience to assess and respond to major storm events.

    The Greensboro News & Record discusses how Florence appears similar to 1996’s Hurricane Fran:

    “Fran, one of the most devastating storms to hit North Carolina, tracked across the Atlantic in 1996 in a path that bears a strong resemblance to ones that some forecasting models are predicting for Florence. As of Sunday, the National Weather Service said the most likely scenario has Hurricane Florence on a northwesterly trajectory that would bring it ashore near Wilmington on Thursday night.

    With several days to ponder what Florence might do on its way across the ocean, those who lived through Fran may be remembering that it, too, was a nighttime arrival, landing at Cape Fear, near Wilmington, at 8:30 p.m. on Sept. 5, 1996. It came in with 115 mph winds and generated a 12-foot storm tide.

    Once on shore, Hurricane Fran traveled north-northwest deep into the state, hitting Raleigh with wind gusts up to 79 mph, toppling century-old trees that fell on houses and brought down power and telephone lines. The storm continued to cause damage as it rolled through Durham and Person counties before leaving the state and crossing into Virginia.

    Hurricane Fran was blamed for 24 deaths in North Carolina and more than $7 billion worth of damage in 1996 dollars. It destroyed or damaged homes and infrastructure, leveled crops in the field, downed millions of dollars worth of timber and forced businesses to close.” [Note other sources give the national total as only $5 billion, with NC suffering about $2.4 billion in damage]

    I would assume the damage figure will be much higher if Florence hits at the predicted strength and location, even after accounting for inflation, due to the massive increase in development on the vulnerable barrier islands in the last 20 years. History would suggest significant property damage is possible at Topsail, Wrightsville, Carolina, and Kure Beaches.

    According the News & Record, one mitigating factor in potential flood damage will be that the river basins’ water levels are lower than in 1999, when Floyd struck this area and brought the type of rains predicted for Florence.

    Ideally, if it does make landfall it will do so just a bit further north between Surf City and Morehead City, which there no significant coastal developments or communities.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Worst possible outcome hitting the Cape Fear region.. You Haven’t seen the EXPLOSIVE development in the past 5+ years? On ALL the barrier islands from SC to above topsail Island..
      There are NO Swamps actually left, they been developed, with HUGE neighborhoods..
      Even during “semi-Heavy” Rain events, Our current Infrastructure, CANNOT handle rain fall well.. We “flood” during a good thunder storm as theres NO WHERE for water to go!
      AND-> We are above average for rainfall, Hitting our Annual rainfall totals by AUGEST.. The ground, in places is still saturated..
      We are looking at 145 MPH winds from Flo..
      I’m don’t EVEN want to think about this, but I must..

      Like

      • keeler says:

        I was speaking of the region in general, and specifically pointed out Topsail and other developed barrier islands as flash points for severe property damage. As we both know that is an understatement, as this type of storm has the potential for catastrophic (to the point of disintegration) impact on barrier islands.

        My last trip through the Wilmington-Cape Fear area was about nine years ago, so I would have indeed missed any subsequent development, thought what you say does not surprise me as I witnessed the tail end of the boom on the Outer Banks. On the balance I still maintain that both the North Carolina government and its citizens are the best equipped to deal with a major hurricane.

        My analysis was not meant to be callous or dismissive. My thoughts will be with all of you in the path of Florence, and now with you specifically.

        Liked by 1 person

  10. auntiefran413 says:

    Thank you, Sundance! Missouri has just been through three days of rain from Gregory.

    My granddaughter just moved to Charleston, SC and while she’s a very bright young lady (an Architectural Engineer), knowing she has experience with tornadoes but none for hurricanes I’ve emailed this post to her…lots of good information for preparing her home.

    Plan A for her right now is to throw the dog in the car and head for her mom’s/my daughter’s home just north of Atlanta. No phone call saying “I’m coming” until she’s at least half way there. That time can be better spent heading for mom’s out of harm’s way.

    Thanks again!

    Liked by 3 people

  11. Katherine McCoun says:

    We lived in NC during hurricane Fran (and others). Everything listed in the article is great. Additionally, if not evacuating, buy ice and make sure to have several coolers to that you can keep things cool from fridge. Have a way to cook out, camp stove or even a single burner and fuel for whatever method you select. I always got ahead on my cooking (making soup, chili and other easy to heat up things is good and things you don’t mind eating cold) and baking as well as having easy things on hand to cook on the cook stove (like eggs or oatmeal). Catch up on vacuuming, washing clothes, and housework in general. Hate to go a week with not washer/dryer or vacuum if already needed in the first place!

    Liked by 3 people

    • get every single container you can get your hands on and FREEZE Water.. (ice melts & makes a mess)..

      Like

    • L. Gee says:

      I would also recommend making granola bars (there are lots of recipes online). Granted, you wouldn’t want to eat them all the time, but if you choose a recipe that’s high in protein, they can make a very good quick breakfast; plus, they’re easy to store (plastic bags), easy to transport, and a good energy boost.

      Y’all stay safe!!

      Like

    • Melanie says:

      Housekeeping? My house is usually trashed after a storm. Wet towels piled by all doors in the aftermath still doesn’t keep all the mud off my floors with us doing the cleanup chores.

      Like

  12. Katherine McCoun says:

    This tidbit is your least concern and yet, if you have time, can be important. If all of the important things are finished, make sure you have some good books to read, cards & board games to play and music/radio on battery operated gadgets (basic radio/cd player). A few books on cd or downloaded and then burned on to cd old time radio shows. Helps to keep your mind off of the storm outside and something to do in the days following.

    One silver lining the night after the storm is that all of the clouds will have been swept up into the storm and with the electric out one can see so many stars! So many more than usual! But having something to do is important for one’s self as well as for younger children.

    Drinking is often done but one doesn’t want to overdo in case of emergency.

    Liked by 3 people

    • fuzzi says:

      Thanks for all the suggestions.

      We lost power for the day during Irene, and played Scrabble.

      NOTE: in eastern NC the stores have no water for sale. Glad we’ve already stocked up with 8 cases.

      Like

      • Katherine McCoun says:

        Irene! That us another one. I can’t remember them all. Entertainment during and just after the storms are important.
        I always filled our tubs with water. I waited to do thus at the last several hours when we were sure of no last minute changes in direction. If the water plant went down or water pressure messed up, etc. I wanted to be able to flush and wash hands, face, etc. in addition to the drinking water
        This was help when the weather was hot. Could soak towels in coll water to hang by the windows and about the bed to help cool a little during the days until electric back on for fans and air condition

        Like

      • I never got the “bottled Water thing”
        I save my old soda pop bottles, fill with TAP WATER & freeze it..

        Liked by 1 person

  13. smiley says:

    thing’s supposed to stall when /if it makes landfall.

    = a lot of RAIN

    Liked by 1 person

    • smiley says:

      if you’re going to ride it out, get some water boots .

      mosquito repellant
      bleach
      hand sanitizers

      clean out your fridge/freezer so the stuff won’t rot when the electricity goes.

      Liked by 1 person

      • smiley says:

        if you have NOISE issues…have some earplugs or a noise reducer ear muffs on hand..

        the sound of generators for days on end can be very hard on the ears.

        Liked by 2 people

        • smiley says:

          3 stages to a major hurricane…

          waiting for it

          experiencing it

          and…the aftermath

          Irma was bad…but, believe me, the aftermath of it was worse…and still is, for some folks.

          have something around, or something to do, that lifts your spirits,,,for some people it’s work (cleaning up, helping others, etc)….for me, music helps when the lights go out and the food runs out..

          Jamaicans know a thing or two 😀

          keep a sense of humor…it will also help.

          Liked by 1 person

      • L. Gee says:

        And a good headlamp with lots of extra batteries!!!! Having both hands free in an emergency just might mean the difference between life and death!

        Like

        • blondegator says:

          Great point! You can get the small headbands with flashlight type lighting on them at Wally World….we take lots of them with us camping w/the Cubbies, they are great in the aftermath of a storm for personal wear if you’re in your house w/no power after the storm.

          You can raid your camping supplies pre-storm, lots of stuff in ours that is useful, axe, small handsaw, lanterns, rope, tiedowns, big stakes, etc. If you have camping gear (we store ours offsite), we bring it home so it’s available.

          Like

  14. wheatietoo says:

    Latest update.


    .
    They are lined up like cars at a carwash…this is not good:

    Like

    • smiley says:

      yeah but helene goes up & away (hopefully) and the isaac thing is supposed to just kind of peter-out by the time it moves into Nicaragua areas (hopefully)..

      the new glob forming in western Caribbean is something to watch , however, because early tracks have it moving into the western Gulf of Mexico..

      …and then up toward Texas

      if it does that, the Gulf warm waters are perhaps not good.

      Liked by 1 person

      • wheatietoo says:

        True.
        I just meant that each one of those blobs…is going to be a misery-maker for…someone.

        Thankfully they won’t all hit us here in the US.
        But they will all be making trouble for people and critters, wherever they hit.

        Like

  15. I live 1000 feet from the ocean halfway between Charleston and Murder Beach. Our alternate inland addresses are all in the projected path. We fled inland during Matthew in October of ’16 and were unable to return for a week due to washed out bridges and flooded roads 50 miles inland. This time we are staying here at the beach. We are all stocked up and ready to latch the shutters on Thursday. We think we are making the wisest choice given the options we have.

    Meanwhile we are praying for God’s Grace and His best plan- for His Kingdom first and for we his servants and soldiers.

    We are also praying for our magnificent President Trump who we see as the last earthly hope for the preservation and prosperity of our beloved country and her Godly founding. That poor man has been beaten on and betrayed by almost everybody he knew and relied upon. And for what? A smaller house in a black neighborhood, a smaller jet, a salary that’s pocket change for him, global hatred by the Satanic Left (many of whom are so called Republicans BTW), death threats and constant “gotcha” set ups. Of course we know what the real why is: His love for his heirs, his love for America, and his hatred for waste and destruction.

    God bless Donald Trump!

    Liked by 3 people

    • 7delta says:

      Once you’re prepared, take a nice walk to pray on Pawley’s beach. You might run into the Gray Man. God is in control, but a little extra insurance from the old mariner would be comforting. In all seriousness, be safe and while I pray for everyone, I do try to “name” people I know in harm’s way and that includes the treeper family. You and your home are on my list.

      Like

      • Thanks 7delta! I’m one beach south of Pawleys- you know where 😉 Speaking of- 20 years ago when there was no Prince George I summered here with my wife who’s family had a beach house here- 6000 sq ft! I had NEVER seen anything like that before. So, we used to walk from this beach up to the old wooden pier where Pawleys begins. Again never had I seen anything so beautiful and untouched by human development. We never did see the Grey Man but we did see a lot of ghost crabs when we took our gas golfcart on the beach at night (a big no-no around here these days- turtle worshipers go nuts over such things). I was a young spry dude in those days. Now I’m in bed by 9PM LOL!

        Anyhow it’s good for the soul to know I have a Treeper Brother close by. We need to meet at the Tiki Bar sometime. I am especially grateful for your selfless prayers and your kindness.

        God bless you!

        Liked by 1 person

        • smiley says:

          even if your home is structurally sound enough to withstand Cat 3 sustained and Cat 4 gusts, plse be aware of the serious & real threats of storm surge and flooding with this thing.

          Like

    • Daniel M. Camac says:

      MassiveDeplorable, Certainly does look like the real thing this time. We’ll be praying for you and all others in Florence’s path. Being further North in the tri-state area (PA_DE_NJ), we don’t expect to see much damage unless it veers more northward before landfall.
      Keep the faith and #MAGA to you all.

      Like

      • Thanks DMC! I think there will be a lot of rain up you way. I hope this thing veers North East and just waters east coast lawns real good- of course if I had a gun to my head and had to pick a landfall location I’d be forced to pick DC.

        I am sincerely grateful for your prayers- I believe prayer changes things. I have seen results over and over- too many to mark up as random.

        #MAGA!!

        Like

  16. PotP says:

    The remnants of tropical storm Gordon have saturated the midwest and middle Atlantic states:

    As much as Florence presents a hige risk to the Carolinas, it also may cause extreme flooding should it move inland and park. Hurricane Agnes in 1972 did just that, and caused enormous damage from heavy rains.

    Stay safe & dry everyone.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. I’m looking at 120->(sustained) & 130~145 MPH gusts and ONLY 15″ of rain..
    NHC forecasted position(s) brings the “eye” directly though & over My yard..

    Like

  18. Jane Smith says:

    There are many studies that claim that we are in the warming phase of an ice age.
    If that is true, we can expect more flooding with melting ice caps and increasing ocean temperatures.
    We should also expect many more of these large hurricanes every year.

    Like

  19. Red says:

    And remember, if you are going to stay you need bug spray. Marsh mosquitos are the worst. They are tiny and really eat you alive. EVERY biting flying thing will be caught up in standing flood waters. I’ve actually seen mounds of fire ants, wasps, yellowjackets, ect riding on debris. And snakes will be looking for drier ground too…..just everything you can imagine….. Be very aware of everything. And if you’re new to the area know what an alligator in the water looks like too!

    Liked by 1 person

  20. smiley says:

    heads-up Texas for later in the week (5 days)… “area of interest” moving into Gulf…

    http://trackthetropics.com/graphical-tropical-weather-outlook/

    and…also…yet another system in the making in northern Atlantic.

    Like

    • smiley says:

      I know the focus here is on Florence…as it should be…but for those all along the Gulf Coast, this ECM Operational (updated) shows some things to watch…

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

      when you click on the forward arrow at the top of the graphic, that will set this in motion.

      notice what Isaac is doing…it peters-out but as it does, it also makes a slightly more northern turn…at that point, it’s designated as L 007 … some concerns that it could be doing something there…hopefully NOT…but yesterday, it headed directly into Nicaragua (due west) as it died out…so….that’s a little different..

      ..also, if I’m seeing this correctly…notice the new glob up in the Atlantic, newly “forming” as of this am…

      that seems to head down and into northern Florida/Georgia, eventually.

      Like

  21. liberty, not license says:

    I appreciate everyone’s knowledge and insight here so much. Question: We are supposed to leave the Midwest tomorrow for St Augustine, FL. for a beach vacation starting Wednesday, but more importantly, a cancer check up at the Mayo Clinic in Jacksonville next Monday. The condo has a no refund policy at this point.Are we safe to be headed there when basically so many will be headed away from the coast? Is there still a chance the storm swings more southerly and hits Northern Florida more directly? Plus, Isaac is chugging along down into the Caribbean then who knows where.

    I know about tornados, but not about how to evaluate the size and properties of a major hurricane and how far away its effects will be. Also, my daughter’s family joins us on Thursday from Indiana and have to drive to Florida through Tennessee and Atlanta. Will they be running into problems with traffic, gas, etc as people have to leave the coast?

    Thanks for any insights. Sorry to bother with this question, because in the scheme of things, those in the direct path have such bigger worries. The time we go for the cancer check up is always stressful, though, and this weather situation has upped that ante so much.

    Like

    • Red says:

      Liberty, wow…. I imagine you may see increase in traffic and fewer options for hotel accommodations. Keep your gas tank topped off!!! Everytime y’all stop go ahead and top off the tank. Fuel will be something that will go fast. ts really going to depend on what and where this thing decides to go. Once it comes onshore caravans of power crews will be on the roads along with truckers and those that did evacuate will all be trying to get home. I would think most people that do leave would head away from projected path. For instance if I were there now, I’d be looking to either head South either into GA or FL, or West into TN. Be careful and have real roadmaps! Its best to stop at each states welcome center/ rest stops and get real road maps!

      Like

      • liberty, not license says:

        Thanks, Red! If we were headed for the Carolinas, I would know there is no option. I just didn’t know how if I was over-reacting if we are headed to Florida. I was already thinking of suggesting a re-route through Alabama instead of Atlanta on Thursday, although it is longer, for my daughter, and your comment really encourages me to do so. The availability of gasoline does concern me.
        Note to self: never make non-refundable reservations at the peak (I didn’t know this is the peak point–I do now!) of hurricane season again. I am usually always so cautious. But, with the cancer check up due at this time and having to have been scheduled awhile ago, we were obviously “more committed” to these dates. We have been renting at the same condo complex for years; unfortunately, they made several changes this year that are more restrictive. 😦
        Actually, a few years ago we were planning on going on vacation to St. Augustine, but they took a rare direct hit from what must have been a weaker hurricane. We didn’t go, but they were up and running a few days later, so it seemed kind of silly to have missed. We didn’t have non-refundable reservations at that time, which really helped.

        Like

    • blondegator says:

      Unfortunately, a lot of your info “depends”. See the 5:00 a.m. forecast track below.

      It appears that the “cone” has now moved well north of the southern Georgia/ northeast Florida boundary. For your situation, that is good. And for the record, the Fla/Ga line historically has not suffered many direct blows, mostly glancing “hits”. My prediction is that Jacksonville should remain relatively unscathed, as will St. Augustine and the Cape.

      If you’re going to go, go as soon as you can. By Wednesday the roads leading inland (and points south and north) from the Coastal Carolinas will be pretty jam packed. It’s been a while since I’ve driven it, but midwest/Florida route is usually through Paducah, KY, Chatnooga, Nashville, through western TN, and then to Atlanta. If I were you, I’d stay on the interstate (75) from Atlanta to Florida, and pick up I-10 east to Jacksonville just after crossing the Florida border, and stay away from the coastal route down I-95 altogether.

      Thursday will be a bad day to travel, even that far west, I’d think, and particularly the farther south you (and daughter) go. Best bet is to leave as early as you can Tuesday, and drive straight through. Monday would be even better It’s a dicey scenario the closer to landfall you get, and I’ve only experienced SoFla evacuations, which are beyond insane.

      Your best bet will be to reschedule, of course, if you can afford to reschedule. If you do go, and early, I think you’ll be fine in Jax/St. Augustine once you get here. You may get some rainy weather as the storm blows by to the north of you, but you’ll be south and west of the major effects of the storm. For example, we got 2 days of yuck after Gordon blew by to the North and West, but nothing worse than just a regular ugly day. Keep an eye out for the track AFTER Florence comes ashore as well. Getting home might be a problem, depending on the flooding….and it’s projected to be bad.

      YMMV. You can make the trip, but if you can, postpone. Safety first. Best of luck, this is a tough decision for you.

      Like

      • liberty, not license says:

        Thanks so much for taking the time to answer, blondegator (and you, too, Red!). You are expressing some of what I been mulling. So, it’s nice to know I wasn’t being over dramatic, but on the other hand, that means the reality isn’t so great. :/

        Like

        • blondegator says:

          You’re welcome. Hurricanes are drama machines, fact! I just heard that they’re issuing evac orders for the Outer Banks in the Carolinas beginning today….these evacs are done early here too, several days early, for the Florida Keys, as there’s just one way out! General evacuations will start tomorrow and become mandatory Wednesday through early Thursday. It appears as though the storm’s forward speed has picked up motion, but the “stall” offshore is still forecast. If you’re going……GO as soon and as fast as you can (don’t stop until you get to Florida).

          Best of luck, and let us know what you decide.

          Like

        • Red says:

          You’re welcome Liberty, I must say I do agree with Blondegator though….I’d be begging the condo to let me reschedule without paying a fee. A cancer followup appointment is stressful enough, they could rent that condo out given the circumstances and probably for more money too because of the storm…..just a thought, you may want to call and see if they will. At least you will have looked at all of your options.

          Like

          • blondegator says:

            THAT is an excellent idea! No doubt, a family of evacuees would snap it up.

            Like

            • liberty,not license says:

              Good points. Apparently, the condo complex is not so forward thinking. They were most unhelpful; they will not work with us at all. We have been going there for literally years, sometimes twice a year or more when my husband received initial treatments in Jacksonville, and two of our children went to college in St. Augustine. One child had a destination wedding in the city, so we had extended families traveling and giving them business, too. Actually, the office staff has usually left something to be desired there, but this takes the cake. :/

              Like

              • blondegator says:

                No kidding. I think I’d find a new place to go. That’s a terrible way to treat reliable repeat customers. Stay safe.

                Like

                • liberty,not license says:

                  Called back and fortunately got someone else on the phone. She is willing to let us reschedule. Now, we have to see if we can get the medical appointments rescheduled. But, I did want to update that we actually found someone to work with us! Their office has kind of always been like that — usually, not real helpful if not downright intransigent, but we usually don’t need much from them. Then, once in awhile, they do come through, like now. Thanks — you both gave me the “courage” to try one more time!

                  Prayers for all impacted in this situation.

                  Like

  22. blondegator says:

    Here is the official NOAA link. Included is a National Storm Surge Map of all of the Coastal US. There is also lots of other information regarding hurricanes. Useful site to bookmark.

    http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html

    Stay safe.

    Like

  23. Slowkid says:

    I’m in Myrtle Beach south carolina. We stay prepped. Can be gone in less than an hour.

    Like

  24. smiley says:

    ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5E727505847102889984&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fspaghettimodels.com%2F

    yuk

    the new glob…upper right..north Atlantic…orange “cone”…is predicted to develope & to move southwest over the coming 5 days.

    Like

  25. JAS says:

    NOAA Aircraft in Florence no. Just upgraded to CAT 4 – 130MPH based on aircraft data. Prayers.

    Like

  26. smiley says:

    Cat 4…about 13 minutes ago…view of it from the International Space Station

    Liked by 2 people

  27. Ross Newland says:

    Radio information from western NC this morning…they are expecting possible 2-3 feet of rain totals in central NC piedmont, possibly including Charlotte. Also possible heavy rain problems in the eastern mountains. NC Governor Cooper was just on, they are now pre-positioning Guard troops and DOT personnel not only in eastern NC but all over the state, because there could be road washouts and mudslides in the mountains. Getting supplies through to various areas could be problematic.

    Another coincidental logistics problem. People thinking they might find lodging in the Asheville-Charlotte-Greenville/Spartanburg SC triangular region probably won’t be able to, due to the World Equestrian Games running at Polk County from the 11th through the 23rd. Hotels have been booked for that event months ahead. People evacuating from coastal areas may want to head southward if possible, because VA is under the gun as well. Not sure what coastal VA will experience, perhaps lodging available up that direction? – maybe some treepers can weigh in. Inland VA will be seeing heavy rain, like NC.

    Have to say, this oncoming situation has a not-good feel to it, and we don’t know how long it will last. If anyone here is unsure about getting prepped, best get that done just in case. We want everyone to stay safe and basically functional. Prayers…

    Like

    • smiley says:

      imo, do not head south…go WEST…the flooding/rain will extend way beyond the “cone”….you want to stay away from the coastal areas…incl north Florida…if this thing does what it’s looking like it’s going to do…. STALL-out.

      go to the SMOKIES.

      Like

  28. smiley says:

    and we now have Inv 95 heading into the Gulf

    early ensembles…

    Like

  29. Elle says:

    Lots of great advice in here. Landfall is not predicted until Thursday, so there is still a little bit of time.

    The very best advice is to BEAT THE RUSH. In the next day or so, you will know if you are likely in the danger zone. Pre-pack your car with food, most important valuables/paper, cash, blankets and room for your family and pets and keep your gas tank full. Do it RIGHT NOW. Think about if/how you can carry an extra tank of gas with you. Book and pay for a hotel room that is out of the danger zone and within driving distance. Do it NOW. Pay for it so it’s yours. Sure, you may not use it, but think of it like you do fire insurance. It is money well wasted. Once the evacuation order is given, do not delay ONE SECOND, peel out of your driveway and go. Be in the front of the line, not the back.

    Like

  30. Elle says:

    stay safe everyone!

    Like

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