Fuel Shipments at Port of Tampa – Statistical Optimism?…

This is a great picture:

Heck, that’s a blessed picture.  Bigly.

If anyone with with an analysis background has the time to run some stats, I’d love to see what your results would be to overcoming this fuel problem and the duration of it.

teekay has some initial thoughts:

Tampa and Everglades ports reopening:

https://www.platts.com/ShippingNews/26803256

Port Everglades petroleum statistics:

http://www.porteverglades.net/cargo/petroleum/

Typical product capacities by vessel class (ocean):

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17991

Typical fuel truck capacity:

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-gasoline-delivery-size-to-gas-stations

Given a shorter ocean delivery distance, presumably the GP vessels will dominate. Each can deliver 3.2-8 million gallons of refined product. A fuel truck carries about 9000 gallons. Hence each ship can fill 350-880 fuel trucks.

SD reports FEMA stating 800000 gallons/day to continue power company operations. That’s about 9o fuel trucks. Hence one GP vessel can support 4-10 days of power company operations. At least ten vessels are inbound to Tampa, so 40-100 days of operational support if all of this fuel were dedicated to these activities.

In terms of motor vehicles:

10 gallons (sub-compact)/tank – 36 gallons (3500 truck) / tank == 900 – 250 personal vehicles / fuel truck.

350 – 880 fuel trucks / GP vessel == 315000 – 792000 (cars) or 87500 – 220000 (trucks) / GP vessel.

10 inbound vessels == 3.15M – 7.92M (cars) or 875K – 2.2M (trucks).

Please correct any math mistakes. Assuming it’s correct, help definitely appears to be on the way.

Assuming:  Effected min 10 million population or 5 million vehicles.  50% of population start day #1 at zero.  Everyone needs to fuel up.  Burn rate on gasoline = 1 tank per week (normal driving), and 5 gallons per day on house generator (750,000 running generators).  FLSERT and National Guard need 800,000 gals per day for ongoing activity.

Obviously we don’t know how many fuel delivery tanker trucks exist in Florida.

Question(s).

1) Is it actually possible for the fuel distribution system to catch itself up?

2) How Long?

 

 

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264 Responses to Fuel Shipments at Port of Tampa – Statistical Optimism?…

  1. brschultz says:

    I love this site, been sharing since I ran into it a few months back… may the Holy Spirit continue to lead SD.

    Side Note… I expect Interest rates to bottom long term here in Fall of 2017… Happy Fall Everyone! And May the Lord God of our Savior Jesus Christ help our country in these trying times… esp citizens in FL, TX, and others.

    Liked by 41 people

  2. AleaJactaEst says:

    pinch points Sundance, pinch points.

    You’re an educated chap, we get that from your unequivocally educated posts. A system’s overall speed or effectiveness is governed by its slowest distribution node. No amount of maths will give you an overall answer ; identify your slowest node.

    Liked by 18 people

    • sundance says:

      Yes, it’s interesting considering the “pinch points” (Port Everglades and Port of Tampa).

      I guess that’s my question. Is the funnel upside down now and can never catch itself?

      Liked by 15 people

      • Malatrope says:

        Are you sure that’s not shipments to the power plant on Tampa Bay (used to be TECO, 30 years go, not sure anymore). The ships looked just like that.

        Liked by 1 person

      • AZ_Giggles says:

        Keep the faith, Sundance, I believe the fuel supply will catch up. God knows how to work miracles and God knows how many millions of people are praying for Harvey/Irma areas. Peace be with you, Sundance, and may God send angels to assist you as you carry out His work of helping others.

        Liked by 21 people

      • joninmd22 says:

        Catching up is months out. It’s now incremental improvement over time that’s sufficient to increase capacity for cleanup./restoration of services. Other pinch points are open roads to access gas stations, stations with power etc.

        Hang in there. The Funnel will tip your way soon.

        Liked by 20 people

        • right…it’s not just rigs that can be filled at the ports…its inbound rigs from other states, heading down 75 and 95, with surplus, that can help FL catch up, right?

          I wish I was a numbers gal to be able to help ya…

          I have had mostly unsuccessful attempts at contacting family in Naples area…cell service y-day before noon…since then crickets…… oh, so much to do. God bless you Sundance and everyone who is helping or who has been affected and probably has to-do’s lists longer than any piece of paper.

          Liked by 12 people

          • joninmd22 says:

            You’ve got the concept. I remember Agnes and things were rough the first few weeks then slowly improved. We had to boil water for months though and my father and uncle sometimes couldn’t get the building supplies they needed right away. It all got done in the end.

            Liked by 9 people

        • elize says:

          Agree and in response to SD…
          On the positive side: Summer high use time has passed and it’s pre-winter holiday time. Theoretically the market and companies would be using this time to analyze quarterly/seasonal usage to make adjustments for future quarters.

          On the negative side: 2 major hurricanes, unheard of number of evacuations, huge unplanned travel and expenses for many. Clean up in two major areas that will take months and well into next year. And that’s just the clean up.

          Fema was good about popping out those emergency checks to average Americans, but that just helps in the short term. City, state, federal and private (insurance, etc) funds/grants will come next and then the rebuilding starts. That rebuilding will also put a strain on gas and local resources.

          Reminds me of the posts where you talk about the globalists controlling what we see and pay for in the market and in grocery stores. While Trump will be looking out for Americans the globalists are loving this opportunity to try and control markets and milk it for every cent.

          Although everyone, esp market controllers, are aware of hurricane season and other such events they usually wont hold much in inventory or plan. Real-time inventory mgmt. systems are great but don’t account for mother nature.

          I’m just really sorry you guys are having to go through this.

          Liked by 7 people

          • elize says:

            I forgot this, planning on your end. Like you noted in your other thread, you had someone standing in the long gas line while you did other things. Over the next couple of weeks and months there will be a lot of long lines and waiting. And as soon as a rumor of gas or grocery delivery hits you’ll see a stampede. If I were with friends/family/close knit community I would set up some plans and designated roles. Thank God for social media!

            Have the person(s) that have the patience and ability to care for children do that to keep them safe and occupied. Have someone monitoring social media/news for deliveries. Decide who your “wait in line”/placeholders will be. The physically capable can do the huge lifting and repairs.

            I’m sure Fema and insurance companies have apps so that people can do all that “paperwork” via their cell phones now. I clearly remember the mad rush of Katrina and Rita folks looking for working phones and internet/pcs when Fema announced they were ready for claims to be made. While I own a cell phone, I only use it to text occasionally. I am a hardcore pc user. So I’m sure there are a ton of folks that have no idea how to apply for the Fema assistance, much less use a cell phone app. Just another example of a role that will need to be filled by someone in your network/community.

            Liked by 3 people

            • maiingankwe says:

              Great ideas Elise! I couldn’t help but think while I was reading your post, ooh, I’d be good at that or that. I know I’d be good at waiting in long lines, I’ve done a great deal of that in airports etc. I’m the one who enjoys starting a conversation with those around me. I’ve learned so much by doing so, and it has always passed the time. If I’m not in a talking mood, which is rare, my mind can keep me entertained for hours. Now don’t laugh, okay, I’m laughing, but it’s true! However, I would really want to be helping with clearing and using a chainsaw safely. I’m not the strongest or the youngest, but I have lots of batteries within to keep me working for long periods of times. I really do wish I could be down there helping. The only thing holding me back is my family and not being able to leave my child home alone while my husband works long hours. The only thing I can do right now is donate a few bucks since we aren’t rich. Maybe twenty bucks a week? It all adds up and it all helps.

              I’d really like to donate to Sundance through CTH, but I’m left wondering if he will use that money to help him and his team or will leave it for CTH and the running of it. I would like to see him using it for helping himself and others. If not, I will donate again to Samaritan Purse. I can’t lose donating there either. I would just like to help our Treepers and their families is all.

              Im also worried about our Skipper1961. I haven’t seen any posts from him, but I could be missing them too. Please let him know I’ve been asking and I’ve been praying if anyone sees him post, I’d greatly appreciate it. There hasn’t been a day that’s gone by I haven’t wondered if he sent his beautiful wife Irena to a safer place with their pup. May he and his family be alright. Fingers are tightly crossed.
              Ma’iingankwe

              Liked by 4 people

            • Elize, one does not have to use this phone app in order to find gas stations in operation. Just go to gasbuddy.com — click on their tracker and type in the city and state. I did this for Naples FL in the following link:

              http://tracker.gasbuddy.com/?q=Naples%2C%20FL

              Liked by 2 people

      • Looks like we’re exporting oil to ourselves. MAGA

        Liked by 5 people

        • Matt Musson says:

          Remember – Tankers delivering from an American Port to an American Port must be BY LAW US flagged tankers. That is the law. Do not know if the President can wave a magic wand and change that.

          Liked by 3 people

        • Deplorable_Vespucciland says:

          Unless Florida (and the EPA) decides to allow a trunk pipeline down through the state this will occur again and again. That is the only solution which am sure has drawbacks of some sort since it hasn’t been done already. Predict that within 2 weeks the gasoline shortage there will be but a bad memory. However, prices at the pump will take a considerably longer time to come back down.

          Liked by 7 people

          • mike says:

            Ships carry a lot of product. Usually there are excess ships in the world.
            Trucks can work 24/7 if not obstructed by regulation.
            Oil companies have tremendous powers of optimization, when allowed.

            Like

      • chiefworm says:

        Don’t forget to add Port Canaveral as a Fuel Depot. Movement by tanker truck is reasonable into Indian River County and almost to Tampa. A push from smaller depots will help to keep the supply chain shorter from the Everglades and Tampa which will assist in “catching up” the overall supply. The only questionable issue is refinery capacity with regards to the Harvey damage along the Gulf Coast

        Liked by 1 person

      • Beverly says:

        Are they temporarily limiting how much gas you can pump at one time? Might be a good idea for a couple of weeks. Would spread out the supply better and help you all get through the pinch.

        Like

        • das411 says:

          “Are they temporarily limiting how much gas you can pump at one time? Might be a good idea for a couple of weeks. Would spread out the supply better and help you all get through the pinch.”

          allowing the price to increase would do the same thing, while also creating an incentive for more supply…

          Like

    • Eric C. says:

      Yup, in the fire dept we had large fires a few miles from hydrants. You need X flow per minute where each engine holds 500 gallons with a few minutes to hook up and fill the supply engine and then the time to travel to the hydrant and fill up, then return (turnaround time). You just needed to fill in the number of engines required to keep flow; however, we only ever “caught up” once the fire was winding down, after the spread had stopped, although we could’ve always kept the fire smaller if we had more engines in the beginning but that was always a factor of the initial dispatch getting to the fire and ordering more engines and then they had a long travel time, the fire grows requiring more.

      I always over ordered when I was able to be the Incident Commander as the initial arriving engine, always order more than you need because that won’t be enough!!

      The system will catch well after it’s needed; however, I have more faith with Trump’s admin handling resource management. Trump understands these issue, the community organizer had no clue.

      Liked by 19 people

    • The ships will unload into tank farms, which will then unload into the tanker trucks. We can probably assume that once the ships start unloading, that will keep the tank farms filled. The tanker trucks will form lines to their various loading stations, so can probably assume a nearly-continuous flow of fuel into tank trucks, from however many stations exist for the tank farm. Since some of the tanker trucks will be traveling to distant gas stations, that enroute time will be a pinch point.

      An interesting question would be: Do all of the gas stations get gas in turn? Or, is there some priority for the gas station closer to the docks? Doing them all in turn would be a more democratic way of doing it. However, getting the closer ones back to normal first, and then having that condition spread to the further ones would move the fuel out of the tank farms quicker.

      It would be interesting to know which way the emergency planners have chosen. Also, any deliveries will be impacted by the conditions of the streets. So anyplace with a large amount of fallen trees, will probably also have delayed fuel shipments.

      Liked by 18 people

      • would be a GREAT bunch of questions for the authorities / news conferences on the subject.

        Liked by 4 people

        • Actually, for those involved with helping people “dig out” from this, a priority could be the local gas stations for an area. Gas stations need power to run their pumps. And they need a cleared street so that the tankers can get to them. Same could be said for local grocery stores. Even though individuals can require assistance, helping out the local establishments can be a way of helping everyone. Food, fuel, and electricity. Having those back makes it easier for the whole extended neighborhood.

          May God bless all of you, who are working to get things back to normal.

          Liked by 13 people

          • mike says:

            Talking to old college roommate in Houston, he said the power stayed on in flooded areas. Apparently there are scenes of people with flood water in the living room, watching TV…

            Liked by 1 person

      • Retired EE says:

        The gas stations and fueling stations also need electricity. That looks like an on going problem. These events show how tied we are to our energy infrastructure. I have great respect and admiration for those out there working to bring the systems back on-line. A huge logistic problem. Also great respect for those volunteers, like Sundance, helping other and assisting tirelessly in this recovery.

        Liked by 3 people

        • When part of my little town burned down from a forest fire, we had utility workers from all over the country swarm in to get everything back up. These skilled workers stay in an area, being away from the homes and families, until everything is done. The same thing is now happening in Florida, although on a much grander scale.

          Liked by 4 people

          • Dear God, bless all the responders who leave their family and homes behind and go to help those in need. Keep them safe & strong as they work. Comfort their families while they are gone and help them too as they wait for their loved ones return. Thank you for providing a helping spirit in these responders and all people who are helping their neighbors in the aftermath of this storm. Send a spirit of peace to those who are anxious or angry. Give everyone in the affected areas wisdom and discernment to know what has to happen for things to improve from where they are now. Bless them too with hope for the future. In Jesus name, Amen.

            Liked by 5 people

            • Cuppa Covfefe says:

              Amen. Beautiful prayer. It’s great how people pull together and help, often at the sacrifice of their own comfort, and their families.

              Watching from “beautiful downtown Deutschland” (to paraphrase Johnny Carson), it makes me proud to be an American, (especially looking at what the media are saying).
              We Americans have a “CAN DO” attitude, and I think, thank GOD, that with President Trump and his administration, things are really looking up, and people are starting to realize that we’re not the schmucks the media are telling us we are (hey, Acrostic, I’m looking at YOU).

              GOD Bless Sundance, all the mods and Treepers, the first and second and all responders, and all of the REAL AMERICANS who are now showing their mettle. America is truly a
              “Cittee Upon A Hill”…

              [N.B. Gargle has truly borked search results for things patriotic and Christian, it appears…]

              Like

        • auntiefran413 says:

          I saw a whole fleet of trucks from Ameren Missouri heading to Florida to do electrical repair. It’s my understanding that if they got to a station that needed repair but was blocked by fallen trees that they’d move on to the next one. Like Home Depot, there were trucks there staged and ready to roll before Irma had cleared the area. God bless those guys!

          Like

  3. ALEX says:

    I posted this last night and it makes perfect sense for Florida and would work in situations like this I believe….

    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-ed-hurricane-irma-lessons-learned-20170912-story,amp.html

    But more permanent, pro-active measures can be put in place for the future. The U.S. Department of Energy created a gasoline reserve for the Northeast after Superstorm Sandy caused shortages in New York and New Jersey in 2012. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, has called for the department to create a similar reserve here. The idea makes more sense for Florida, given our state’s higher vulnerability to hurricanes.

    Liked by 11 people

  4. joshua says:

    solar power or wind power maybe? not likely….
    amazing story on the internet about the Tesla autos in Florida.

    seems that Tesla has software controls over the amount of charge the batteries will take, thus limiting the distance available for travel…story is…that Tesla REMOTELY adjusted the software on Florida autos to INCREASE the charge capacity on the existing installed batteries to a higher level which otherwise would be a purchase only option…..but after a month they change will revert automatically back down……

    who would have thought that the TESLA was totally under corporate software control as to locations, ability to read and modify operational issues…..think about the implications of your car managing YOUR control over YOUR travels.

    Liked by 16 people

  5. I have a whole house genset hooked all by it’s self to a 250 gallon propane tank. I would guess a good many people might use propane or natural gas rather than gas or other type of fuel. I have ran 8 days straight on propane and still had plenty of fuel in the tank.

    Liked by 13 people

    • Eric C. says:

      That’s interesting. We in a north Alabama and my next big purchase will be a whole,generator. Debating between natural gas and propane. Will he natural gas supply stop as well??? If so how big of a propane tank to bury runnin 2’ac units

      Liked by 4 people

      • Ivan Place says:

        I’ve wondered about that. Is it practical to do a dual-fuel arrangement, using natural gas if available, and switching to a tank of propane if not?

        Liked by 2 people

      • I suggest you talk with the people that sells them. Now in my opinion I would have both on hand. I don’t have natural gas as I am in the sticks in middle Georgia. I can switch my genset as it will run on either. Just a matter of turning a leaver. I would plum for both if I could get both. Natural gas could get cut off so I would use propane as a backup. You need not worry about it going bad on you. I love my electricity other wise I am burning wood.

        Liked by 4 people

        • Coldeadhands says:

          More power to you!! Heh

          Liked by 1 person

        • Cuppa Covfefe says:

          Whatever you do, be sure to let your power provider know, and have the right interconnect and disconnect equipment. Sending juice down the line when they’re
          working on it could be fatal to the line guys…
          (Just saying: If you have offline generating kit, you already know this…).

          Like

    • Paco Loco says:

      What manufacture is the genset? Do you have auto cut over?

      Liked by 1 person

    • PLEASE look into WHOLE HOUSE when the dust settles. We are remodeling my childhood home. ( I lived there during Matthew 2016 with my ill Father. Small inland Carolina town was a mess that was very unexpected. We had a portable generator that was a big help and it was rolled between neighbors to keep freezers going. During that time my Father said it is time for a generac or similar. Immediately we began looking into different options.His days became numbered and only lived another month.)
      Fast forward to NOW as we are nearing end of renovation; the electrician really helped with discussing options and needs. These whole house units are more economical than people realize and electrician began assessing the set up of our house NOW. Natural gas hot-water tankless, Florida heat pump works mainly on a well AND electrician noted, I did not need to power much. I can hook it to natural gas line and will be able to get a smaller KW generator that will manage the entire house. Actually about half the cost, I was expecting.
      I budgeted for the CONVENIENCE and am certain we will be a Popular location the next time power fails. It will be great to help the neighborhood!

      Liked by 1 person

  6. sundance says:

    Liked by 29 people

  7. Steve in TX says:

    It may be that the utility of pipelines to supply fuel will be realized this time.

    Liked by 13 people

  8. Michael says:

    I’ll bet in almost every problem subjected to a rigorous RCA gvt interference/intervention will be found.

    Also a lot of people will willingly pay $8-$20 gal for bottle water or $50/gal for Starbucks coffee yet scream bloody murder at someone wanting to sell gasoline for $10/gal.

    Liked by 7 people

  9. tgmccoy says:

    Had a thought-what about using the US Military’s capacity to deliver fuel?
    Trucks, C-130′ s hauling fuel bladders, C-17’s etc. Not a permanent solution.
    but it might take the edge off …

    Liked by 8 people

    • You need a VERY BIG runway and THE ONLY RUNWAY AVAILABLE IS NAS KEY WEST…And that depends if the runway is operational at this point…also, it depends on how much damage to facilities at Key West Int’l Airport…have not seen any pics yet…A lot of good ideas from pipeline to refinery producing…my take would be to have way stations that are dropped in by helicopters that have FUEL ONLY…put bladders on rubber mats…did this in the desert…worked quite well!!!

      Liked by 4 people

      • Michael says:

        Either aircraft easily get into several runways in south Florida.. . PGD close to Arcadia should be no problem if its intact. I wouldn’t think they would want to haul gasoline but a heck of a lot of other stuff will fit into a 17 and deliver right where it is needed.

        Liked by 1 person

        • mariner says:

          C-130s can use roads, or even open fields.

          That’s what they were made for.

          Like

          • Very True…but one would have to have the entire length of the roadway to be clean and free of debris and have a turn-around spot…this is a humanitarian mission NOT a combat mission…crew and planes come first.

            Like

            • Michael says:

              PDG (Punta Gorda) is active and Allegiant is flying at this very moment.
              http://www.flypgd.com/flights/arrivals/airline-asc/

              Like

              • Very True…However, we are talking about getting fuel to as many people as possible. The only way to do that is to use helicopters with under slung bladders in as many spots a possible. Dispersion points can be initiated more quickly and the humanitarian mission would continue unabated…bringing large a/c into an unsettled situation is asking for trouble for everyone…helicopters are force multipliers and that is what is needed right now…

                Like

                • Cuppa Covfefe says:

                  Have to wonder what the railroads would be capable of. They have the lowest cost, and probably the least motive power needed for bringing in fuel. The only question, of course, is are the tracks/bridges/docking facilites/etc. intact…

                  Same as with a pipeline: it sounds nice, but wind and/or flooding could be a problem.
                  Nonetheless, I love trains (come from a railroading family)…

                  Liked by 1 person

        • G. Combs says:

          “….I wouldn’t think they would want to haul gasoline ….”

          They might be able to haul in diesel. That would be a lot of help. Buses, trucks, emergency, business and utility vehicles are often diesel. So is most if not all the heavy equipment.

          We used chain saws (gas) and a YUGE tractor (Diesel) to get a tree out of the road near my home during the last huricane. My dually would not budge the 8 ft section we had cut but the neighbor’s tractor had no problem moving that baby. (Oak about 5 ft in diameter – I could not see over it.)

          So getting that diesel out to people would really help even if gasoline was not available.

          Liked by 1 person

      • Mak Dietzler says:

        Don’t forget about Homestead Air Reserve Base. McDill AFB is across the peninsula in Tampa.

        C-130s can get into some pretty small airfields, or non-airfields if the ground is firm enough.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Very true…However, those two bases are out of range. By having the bladders in the vicinity of where the fuel is needed more turn-around time and greater number of fueling take place…Good Idea though…

          Like

  10. labrat says:

    What about generator needs?

    Liked by 2 people

  11. sundance says:

    Liked by 11 people

  12. justme928 says:

    Gov. Scott needs to blast the air waves and tell everyone to MINIMIZE driving and generator use. So many people on FaceBook have commented that they have ‘toured’ neiborhoods to see the damage. Ever if you have gas or your stations have gas, everyone needs to conserve for a while. Those returning after evacuating, need to stay put an extra day out two. Minimizing usage would go a long way toward fixing the fuel shortage.

    Liked by 16 people

  13. Blacksmith8 says:

    plz tell me there won’t be a test on this.
    btw Sundance, from my perspective, you are doing a great job!

    Liked by 9 people

  14. Pam says:

    Best of luck to everyone who are suffering in the aftermath of Irma. I hope and pray for all of you that the fuel situation will get back to normal sooner rather than later.

    Liked by 5 people

  15. Lucille says:

    Wonder if Rick Perry has consulted the Secretary of State on this crisis. I know Rex has his plate full, but he’s a Mount Everest of oil industry info, expertise and get-her-done attitude.

    Liked by 5 people

  16. Pam says:

    Liked by 8 people

  17. Pam says:

    Liked by 10 people

  18. Pam says:

    Liked by 8 people

    • Sharon says:

      Well, Gov., just because “they must” does not guarantee that they will.

      Makes me crazy that a lot of really nice and competent people refuse to accept reality and plan accordingly.

      Like

      • Sharon says:

        I didn’t even finish reading his statement for fear that he would say he was shocked.

        That word is authentically used (any more) only be people who haven’t been paying attention, and they might not want to broadcast that, especially if they have a position of influence and authority.

        Like

    • Sharon says:

      Well, as some public official has pointed out:

      “Florida Power & Light official, Rob Gould, also commented on the situation. ‘It does point out the need to have a plan in advance,’ he said. ‘This is why we say when if you’re dependent on electricity for medical needs to have back-up plans in place.’ ”

      http://wsvn.com/news/local/1-dead-30-evacuated-at-hollywood-nursing-home/

      And there you are. The nursing home didn’t know, didn’t believe, or didn’t want to do it – that they needed to have a plan in advance.

      I saw stuff like this, first hand, in the retirement homes in small town Minnesota twenty-five years ago….the very nice nursing homes that had high reputations.

      Just as AleaJactaEst points out upthread, re the principle of pinch points……infrastructures and regulations all have their pinch points, sometimes with a script that reads, “Sorry. We didn’t have time.” or “I thought that was done last year.”

      https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/09/13/fuel-shipments-at-port-of-tampa-statistical-optimism/#comment-4374615

      There is no reason to trust the nursing home facility that your loved one in is. You may indeed feel confident because of extra steps you have taken yourself, but trust them on their say so? I wouldn’t.

      If the nursing home your loved one is in will not allow or provide a 24/7 monitoring camera that covers the bed, the doorway, and the bathroom – – – – I’d take that as a leading indicator. At the very least, it means THEY are not confident of what goes on in the rooms.

      Like

  19. Texian says:

    Florida has to get its pretroleum products by tanker – just like a foreign country. Unbelievable – no product pipeline. The closest pipeline is a Colonial pipeline terminal in Georgia.

    How about some infrastructure development Governor Scott.. Start an initiative to get the EPA out of the way so you can build a supply pipeline in order to grow your economy and effectively serve the people of the great state of Florida.

    Liked by 9 people

  20. ED. says:

    A true and accurate calculation would be difficult but doable if it weren’t for panic buying. This is where the rubber meets the road, if you don’t mind the pun.
    The simple fact is that this is an underrepresented situation as to the size, and scope of the refuel problem. Then add in that most people who needed gas, and weren’t able to get any, as well as anybody who heard about their plight, which is everyone, making all more prone to overbuy. So in a nutshell gas cans that would otherwise have remained empty except for emergencies are now going to be filled at the soonest possible opportunity. And commuters who don’t usually buy more gas than they need are now going to top off their tanks, and often.
    In the short term this only leads to more scarcity, which leads to more overbuying because of long lines, which prolongs the problem even longer than is actually necessary, or predictable.

    This entire situation could have been prevented if the US Government would have subsidized the unaffected gas stations profit margin of about 3 cents a gallon, if they gave up their fuel shipments to the evacuated areas before the predicted storm ever arrived. A cheap solution to a serious, and very expensive problem if you ask me.

    Liked by 3 people

  21. Bob Thoms says:

    The trucks began heading out early Tuesday from Port Everglades, which supplies 100 percent of fuel to gas stations in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Martin counties.

    12 petroleum companies operate out of the port and five were operational and were sending out trucks as of 8 a.m. yesterday with fuel from their pre-Hurricane Irma reserves. Another five are expected to be up and running by noon today.Two were damaged by the storm.

    Yes, the market will catch up to demand very quickly…and in Houston 6 refineries that were off line because of Harvey just got back to business this week…………………….

    The sunnyside of the street is just around the corner………keep walking forward.

    Liked by 6 people

  22. teekay says:

    Finding the information (inputs) is the hardest part. The most recent I could find concerning actual fuel tanker discharge is from 10PM last night.

    http://flaports.org/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-update-regarding-florida-seaports:

    UPDATE 9/12/17, 10 p.m.: Port of Panama City and Port Everglades are now open. Seven oil tankers discharging in Florida; three at Port Everglades, three at Port Tampa Bay, one at Port Canaveral. Florida Highway Patrol is escorting fuel trucks to stations for expedited distribution. Note at some ports fuel storage tanks were full the entire duration of Hurricane Irma; the refueling of trucks and operations were suspended for only a short time because of the physical hurricane itself.
    ….

    No information on tanker size, discharge rates, etc, so any math would be pure speculation. That said, the fact that seven tankers were discharging last night seems very good. Will keep looking for actual numbers on these deliveries and more data points.

    Meanwhile other facilitation and mitigation steps have been taken:

    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/244798-rick-scott-fuel-power

    — All three of Florida’s major fuel ports are open and operational: Port Tampa, Port Everglades and Port Canaveral. Port of Panama City is also open and operational. Each is prioritizing fuel shipments and FHP is escorting fuel resupply trucks to gas stations.

    — Scott has directed Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) cut and toss crews to work alongside utility crews across the state to clear road debris so power can be restored quickly.

    — He also waived the taxes on fuel trucks entering the state and held daily calls with all fuel supply stakeholders, including Florida ports.

    — Vice President Mike Pence on Tuesday announced that the federal government has waived the Jones Act upon Scott’s request, which lifts additional rules and regulations to allow more fuel to get into Florida.

    — Also, the federal Environmental Protection Agency has approved an emergency fuel waiver which allows more fuel to enter the state.

    Liked by 7 people

  23. MfM says:

    Two factors that might help with the fuel situation normalizing.

    When the electricity gets restored there is less need for generators and more gas stations have power. It also means that people will think things are back to normal and drive more which might balance out.

    The other is people and their reactions to their perceived lack of fuel. If you don’t think you’ll be able to get fuel next week you top up today even if it’s only 2-3 gallons and you have to wait in line for 4 hours. The amount of time it takes to pump 15 gallons is only moments more than 2 or 3. Lines develop because each car is taking pretty much the same time even if one is getting 5 or even 10 times as much as others.

    I’ve seen pictures of those tankers several times today. That is a psychological effort to truthfully tell people that fuel is on the way, that it will get better. Verbally saying it doesn’t do as much as actually SEEING it and being told it’s coming in. This will do several things. Help people’s feelings of not being forgotten and slow down those people who are “topping up”.

    Just like you did a back of the envelope calculation of how much fuel would be needed so to are other people. They know (because they have seen the ships) that the fuel situation will get better. They know they use X gallons a week normally and can cut it back a bit if needed. Most people will do that calculation themselves and say I don’t need to wait in a line for 3-4 hours to get gas today when it should mostly be back to normal next week and I have enough in my tank for 2 weeks of normal driving.

    It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

    Liked by 5 people

  24. woodstuff says:

    We need more refineries, especially inland ones. There is no excuse. I blame regulators and tree-huggers.

    Liked by 5 people

  25. The Boss says:

    The logistics behind this recovery effort are astounding in scope, whether it be fuel resupply, power restoration or stranger helping stranger. I wouldn’t sweat the math at this point. Let others do that. Just make every move count for something. Many small steps for man. One at a time. I couldn’t be prouder of our country.

    Liked by 5 people

  26. Janeka says:

    The stations currently with fuel did some crisis management in advance, they capped their underground tanks then closed shop.. Once the danger passed they opened back up.. As a petroleum products inventory specialist for a large trucking company that is exactly what I would have done.. It’s my understanding there are no pipelines in FL due to the instability of the soil, sink holes and other hazards. There is a reason all their refineries are on the coast line, except the one in Orlando that is fed via pipeline.. It would be cheaper and environmentally safer to have the boats bring the crude directly to the refineries that are all over the coast line..
    You can bet there is underground storage at the refineries waiting to be shipped out.. Keep in mind the status of the tankers during the storm, damages or total loss.? I would not want to be out pumping gas beside a tanker with big dents all over the top and sides.. Then we have the drivers and the condition of their own family housing/care needs.. People and equipment used to move the fuel also live in the area.. I’m sure they will be back doing above and beyond their duty to help their neighbors as best they can but where are they, are they safe.? It may not be easy to drag people and equipments from other states due to law/license requirements between states for hazardous products tanker transport.

    Liked by 1 person

    • NickD says:

      There are zero refineries in FL. The tankers are delivering refined product

      Liked by 6 people

    • G. Combs says:

      “….It’s my understanding there are no pipelines in FL due to the instability of the soil, sink holes and other hazards….”

      AHHHhhh Sand dunes on swiss cheese karst. I thought so.

      The last think you want is a new sink hole opening up, the pipe breaking and dumping tons of petroleum into the water table.

      Like

  27. Jeff says:

    i wonder how many of gallons of gas are sitting in the tanks of vehicles that have been damaged by the flood waters? Use every available commodity in these situations till conditions improve. No need for damaged vehicles to be sitting there with gas in the tank if they are not operational. Even if it’s enough to run a generator for a couple of hours or a chainsaw to clear debris. At this point, every drop of fuel is precious. I’m sure I’m not the only one to think of this concept, but it is a thought.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Sylvia Avery says:

      I was thinking of that a little bit, too. In the aftermath of Harvey, the flooding ruined one million cars, half a million in Houston alone. That’s a lot of rolling stock with gasoline in the tanks.

      I know Florida didn’t see the same kind degree of flooding, but still there was a lot of flooding as well as wind damage from downed trees or whatever, resulting in a lot of cars that are now inoperable most of which will have gasoline in the tanks.

      Like

  28. TrueNorthSeeker says:

    FYI…heard from my mother in Largo (near Clearwater and Tampa). Power and cell phones restored…Praise God! Still no gas around but hopeful it will arive soon. No damage to her home. Thankful for all the prayers from fellow Treepers!!

    Liked by 10 people

  29. Truthfilter says:

    If I was still teaching high school, I would create an entire unit of economic/geography lessons on the current situation in Florida. (I would use articles from SD and CTH, too!) “Hurricane Irma’s Effects on Supply/Demand of Fuel in Florida,” etc, etc. The possibilities for lesson ideas and projects are endless.

    But I’m not a teacher anymore and besides, Common Core doesn’t allow for “teachable moments.” Sigh.

    Liked by 7 people

  30. Not sure what happened to my post, but the math is off by ~100 trucks/tanker. I used to schedule ships to Florida with fuel, most ocean going vessels were around 180,000bbls of product. The analysis is lacking the impact of 10% ethanol blends. Unless the federal government provides a waiver, ethanol could be another bottleneck if railroads are closed still.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Trucks can only hold ~8,500 gallons of gasoline due to the density of the product, length of haul, and weight of truck. 10% of 8500 is 850, so 8500-850 = 7,650 gallons of pure gasoline/truck. 180,000bbls * 42 gallons/bbl = 7,560,000 gallons/tanker. 7,560,000/7,650 = 988 trucks of gasoline / tanker.

      The other bottleneck is how quickly you can load trucks of fuel at the terminal racks. You have the ability to float the tankage during offloading of ships. Generally, there is not enough tank storage to house that many ships at one time, so they will need to keep the trucks turning.

      Liked by 4 people

      • teekay says:

        I expected it would be, thanks for the correction. Per usual I awoke, made the coffee, took a sip or two, and popped up CTH. SD’s post piqued my curiosity about the logistics of resupply, so I DDGd (duckduckgo) until the basic container numbers presented themselves, then did the arithmetic and posted before leaving for work.

        I was hoping someone with more competence in these areas could provide a better model using higher quality inputs. For example, the time to discharge/load, as you have mentioned. Lots of parameters to consider to build a statistically realistic model.

        Thanks again for your insight.

        Like

    • NickD says:

      I’ve seen talk about fuel waivers in FL, but I’m not sure if they’re re: ethanol content or about something else

      Like

  31. W. Fernandez Jr says:

    MUST ENSURE fuel is ONLY deposited at gas stations that have ZERO water contamination in tanks 😒

    Liked by 3 people

    • G. Combs says:

      It should be easy enough to check the tanks. It is just whether or not the stations WILL check the tanks.
      H2O and CnH2n+2. do not like each other and separate pretty quickly so all you have to do is take a sample from each tank.

      Like

  32. georgiafl says:

    Another factor in the fuel recovery equation – there won’t be nearly as many big power company vehicles working round the clock and big military vehicles here in a month or two – unless there is another big hurricane hit.

    Folks won’t be traveling as much either.

    The gas stations and grocery stores will eventually catch up.

    As they did in the past.

    Hurricane Harvey in TX cut fuel production and Irma increased demand.

    It will eventually even out.

    Even if they have to bring in extra tanker trucks to empty the boats faster.

    Establishing seasonal fuel reserves for hurricane season is a good idea.

    Liked by 1 person

    • G. Combs says:

      “…power company vehicles working round the clock and big military vehicles….”

      Those are mainly diesel. I have sat behind enough Duke Power trucks waiting to fill-up my diesel trucks to know that.

      Liked by 1 person

  33. Jeff says:

    Did someone say Florida needs a Colonial Pipeline extension ! ? Oh wait that would be a long term solution and an EPA nightmare ! Quick George Soros get a bus down there to block the pipeline . Fill it with nuns and children !! ” NIMBY “. The pinko commie MASK of environmentalism .

    Someone out there already knows the consumption for a ” normal ” day , week ,month , year for their fuel product . Collecting all those statistics would simplify the question .

    Fuel tax records would give a fair estimate of how many gallons of fuel are consumed on average for a year in Florida .

    How long before the PREDATOR class goes BACK in to hiding and moving toward ” normal ” can begin ? Oops …same question !

    Imagine that gasoline / fuel is the precarious thin thread that holds civilization together . OH boy is that scary !

    Liked by 4 people

    • Texian says:

      Yes, that would be me – the logical and common sense solution – have Colonial simply extend the pipeline south a few hundred miles.

      I used to buy, sell and route product to those leftist Yankees bastards in New England area and Chicago area. Check out that big azz blue line interstate highway size pipe on the map going non stop to the New England area.. not to mention all the myriad of other smaller ones as well. The leftists sure don’t have a problem building big azz ones to serve themselves. (The thin blue line going into Florida, one by land one by sea, is natural gas only, not gasoline).

      Liked by 1 person

      • G. Combs says:

        What about soil/ground instability? As a caver I have seen how ‘Hollow’ parts of this country is and I have seen new caves (sinkholes) open up.

        That would be my biggest worry about Florida.

        Like

  34. Ghostrider says:

    These tankers have been out in the Gulf the whole time; they were waiting for (safety reasons) the US Coast Guard and the Csptain of the Port to lift the Zulu lockdown of the Ports of Tampa, Jacksonville and Miami.

    Three days post Hurricane seems like a long time but this time around the State and Federal Governments have drastically improved on its crisis management logistics. Credit Rick Scott and POTUS.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Texian says:

      A simple small 12 inch pipeline with stations in Tallahassee and Orlando; There would be no waiting by oil tankers or crews both land and at sea, etc. The inefficiency is simply stunningly stupid. Such loss of time, revenue and productivity – all because of the refusal to build a simple 200 mile 12″ pipeline..

      It is obvious there are other things at play here.. politics, bureaucracy and power – keeping a choke hold on the people..

      Liked by 1 person

  35. jbrickley says:

    Previous administrations perspective, “Never Let a Crisis Go To Waste”. The current administration, “Git’R Done and if I have to move heaven and earth, so be it”.

    Liked by 1 person

  36. MfM says:

    I keep seeing mention of pipelines in Florida. I’ve also seen mention somewhere that the reason there aren’t is because of the soil structure. That makes it not viable. My memory is the person saying that was that the soil is sandy and prone to sink holes.

    Like

    • bishop says:

      If bridges, overpasses and condominium skyscrapers can be built all over Florida, then a pipeline can certainly be engineered and built to withstand hurricane winds and account for poor soil structure. blame the liberals in the EPA!

      Liked by 2 people

      • Texian says:

        Exactly – I’ve built pipelines offshore for years (right off that vessel in the picture, as well as all the others that were in the fleet). Pipeline technology is out there in order to withstand most extreme conditions.. the “soil movement” excuse or the like in the case of Florida is simply a unicorn fairy tale..

        Liked by 2 people

    • hmmmm….. Sierra Club is the culprit, from Oil & Gas journal

      COURT OVERTURNS FERC’S APPROVAL OF SOUTHEASTERN US GAS PIPELINES
      09/04/2017
      ByNick Snow
      A federal appeals court overturned the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approval of three proposed southeastern US natural gas pipelines and ordered the regulator to more closely examine potential environmental consequences of using gas that the systems would carry. The Aug. 22 decision by 2 of the 3 judges hearing the case in the US Appeals Court for the District of Columbia was a clear victory for the Sierra Club, which led the legal challenge by landowners and other environmental groups. It was not immediately clear whether it would be appealed to a higher federal court. The case centered on the Southeast Market Pipelines Project, comprised of three lines now being constructed…

      Liked by 1 person

      • though this is for natural gas, there is an underwater pipeline in the gulf to Louisiana, so it can be done.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Texian says:

          Absolutely positively can be built – and safely too. Pipelines are the safest modes of transportation for petroleum products. What is happening is leftist groups and leftist judges choking American development and progress in order to obfuscate and destroy this Country. So, the question is, who is pulling their strings – that would be.. “the swamp..”.

          Liked by 3 people

  37. nimrodman says:

    Sundance said:
    “If anyone with with an analysis background has the time to run some stats, I’d love to see what your results would be to overcoming this fuel problem and the duration of it.

    I dunno, Sundance, but to fall back on one of your photos, have you been able to get that problem posed to this guy?

    😉

    Liked by 2 people

    • Ambrosius Macrobius says:

      tl;dr from the thread; about 7 weeks to full recovery, and you can monitor convergence by counting how many gas stations you have to visit in a random search before finding one with a queue. 😀

      quote:

      So the key to understanding ‘heavy scaling problems’ where there is a workload (backlog) to be worked off, is to realise that the stochastic process limit for such a problem has a time scaling feature —

      U(t) -> sqrt(n)*U(t/n) as n goes to infinity. We have estimated N at 50 ish (at current rates of supply, it would take 50 weeks to refuel FL’s fleet of cars). This number was based on a single anecdotal observation — it takes about 47 gas stations to find one working.

      Now sqrt(50) is about 7 — so the rule is to monitor the number of gas stations you have to visit before finding an operational one, and take the sqrt of that number. That’s about the number of weeks away to recovery. The evolution of ‘recovery time’ does not need to be smooth, but there are so many random factors in play that it’s like the Poisson distribution of Prussian officers killed by horse-kicks.

      The two numbers in this calculation are: how long does it take to turn over inventory in a normal condition (about a week), and how long does it take if you radically rescale the problem’s performance by some factor in time — 50 x longer. The natural time scale and the dimensional rescaling give the essential answer.

      Isn’t Brownian Motion cool? It has dimensional scaling in time. It’s vary hard to escape Heavy Tailed distributional properties, at scale.

      In particular, this predicts that when 1 out of 3 gas stations in your neighbourhood, you are about 1.7 weeks from all of them working. When 2/3 are operational at any time, you are about a week away.

      Liked by 1 person

  38. James W Crawford says:

    I predicted this yesterday. The simple fact is that any fuel moved into the hurricane zone before the storm is vulnerable to destruction. Resupply after the storm lifts is prudent. Floridians would not have sufferred such a fuel shortage if Irma had not faked East then gone West, fooling evacuees into relocating twice.

    The fuel stocks eill build back up rapidly once all of the panic buying is done. The volume ofnormal commuting will be reduced for a week or so.

    Everone needs to learn from this. Buy several Jerry cans with spouts. Keep some of them full and rotate your reserve by refueling your car with your jerry cans then refilling your cans. When a hurricane is predicted, replentish your reserve ASAP and continuously top off all of your cars everyday.

    Like

    • Paul Killinger says:

      If you don’t rotate your reserve fuel regularly it will become useless before long due to the ethanol in the gasoline. People use products such as “Stabil” to keep gas “fresh” as long as possible.

      Like

  39. georgiafl says:

    On the way to town, I turned on the radio and Governor Scott was warning us about crooks going door to door pretending to be home repairman – demanding money up front then leaving without doing the work.

    This kind of thing happens after every disaster.

    Crooks stealing the contents of a woman’s car while she was inside her damaged house, getting her four little kids settled.

    Crooks stealing people’s generators, tools, looting their homes while they were out of town in mandatory evacuations.

    Should have to serve double time for taking advantage of people during a state of emergency!!!

    Liked by 4 people

  40. tvollrath66 says:

    Absolutely great news here in lake wales fl. Duke, asplundh, and pike worked behind my house today for about 12 hrs. I now have power. This morning a citgo on hwy 17 had gas also murphy this evening on hwy 60 also on 60 sunoco did to. Walmart and winn dixie was still closed but rural king was open. No fast food either. So some things are returning to normal. A great day!

    Liked by 5 people

  41. GratefulAmerican says:

    Sundance, you must be beyond exhausted..

    May God give you his strength.

    So do not fear, for I am with you;
    do not be dismayed, for I am your God.
    I will strengthen you and help you;
    I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.

    Isaiah 41:10.

    God bless you and bring to you the remembrance of the hope only he can deliver.

    Liked by 1 person

  42. tvollrath66 says:

    Here is a copy of a email from duke energy that has a repair schedule.

    Restoration efforts in full force
    ■ Over 809,000 customers restored as of 6 p.m., Sept. 13
    ■ Estimated times of restoration now available by county
    ■ The Duke Energy Foundation has pledged to donate $250,000 to the Florida Disaster Fund
     
    We have more than 12,000 line and tree crews, damage assessors and support personnel involved in outage restoration efforts, including personnel from the Carolinas and Midwest.
     
    We’ve restored service to more than 809,000 customers already, but we have much more work ahead. We will not rest until power is back on for everyone.
     
    Our estimated dates of restoration are broken down by county:
    ■ By midnight Friday, Sept. 15: The western portion of the
    Duke Energy service area, including Pinellas and Pasco counties
    ■ By midnight Sunday, Sept. 17: The central and northern portions of the service area, including Alachua, Bay, Brevard, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Flagler, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Leon, Levy, Madison, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Volusia and Wakulla counties
    ■ Complete restoration in the severely impacted areas of Hardee and Highlands counties may extend beyond Sunday as we rebuild the heavily damaged electrical system
     
    We will continue to work on scattered and isolated outages until all service is restored; however, restoration may be delayed for some customers where meter or other customer equipment is damaged and requires repair and an inspection.
     
    Currently, the company’s online outage reporting tool is not updating properly. As a result, we are unable to provide specific estimated times of restoration. In addition, the outage figures in the automated system do not reflect the actual numbers of customers restored. Until corrected, the company will periodically send updated outage numbers through our online channels.
     
    You can stay informed by visiting our storm webpage.
     
    We thank you for your patience.

    Liked by 2 people

  43. Vince says:

    One easy thing that can be done to save fuel for critical uses is to keep the schools closed for a week or two. If the kids are at home, the parents will be at home as well, and they will not be using gasoline.

    Like

  44. Paul Killinger says:

    I am optimistic because President Trump’s right hand man is the former Chairman of the largest “integrated” oil company in the world.

    As such, Mr Tillerson knows more about how to deliver fuel in an emergency on a timely basis than all the “gasbags” in Washington combined.

    Not to mention The Boss is in the perfect position to clear any bureaucratic hurdles that may lie in the way.

    MAGA, gentlemen. Thank you!

    Liked by 1 person

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