BREAKING: 5.6 Million Floridians Urged To Evacuate Ahead of Irma…

Everything that can be done outside for myself, my friends and those in my neighborhood is done.  The remaining stuff is interior prep: filling bathtub and trash cans, w/ water etc. and putting the final touches on bug-out bag and emergency response vehicle w/ pets etc, along with enjoying the final days of air conditioning is what remains.

But boy howdy is the media missing the reality.  As usual the national news heads for Miami and Miami Beach; that’s not the only geography for this one.  For those of you interested here’s actual explanations of SWFL tonight.

Massive numbers of east-coasters came to the west coast based on storm path predictions two days ago.  This only exacerbated the fuel shortage south and West of Lake-O.  Seeing officials saying people need to make final evacuations now, just seems silly.  How do these officials  expect people to leave when there’s been little to no gasoline for days?  Weird.

After checking with people within my network, within the rescue/recovery process and actual private business interests, everything is closing tonight at 8:00pm and there are no plans for opening ANYTHING until Tuesday.    That’s approximately 4 days of severe hunkering down.

The earliest fuel shipments I could confirm are (hopefully) anticipated to arrive on Wednesday of next week.  That’s approximately 5 days of self-sufficient fuel needed for those with portable generators.  (5 gallons usually runs about 12-14 hours under normal loads).  That means anyone with less than 50 gallons of fuel can’t make it from Sunday to Wednesday.

Anticipate the concerning fuel issue being the challenge again in the aftermath; as it has been in the lead-up.   Fuel demand generally doubles AFTER a storm hits with widespread power disruption; I can only imagine what this means for next week.

On a positive note, due to a massive private investment after 2004’s experience with (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) Publix Supermarkets equipped their stores with whole-store generators which can put them back into business without a municipal power grid.  This has the potential to pay off bigly in the upcoming month.

Power is going to be a big issue.  If the path is anything like current projections we can anticipate a power outage in Florida breaking all known records.   This issue is made complicated by the South To North direction of Irma keeping the inbound power recovery teams from being able to head south.

Once again this geographical dynamic means the Southern most impact zone will be without power the longest.  Unfortunately, this is also the impact zone without fuel the longest; and subsequently you can see the ongoing exponential fuel crisis exacerbated by those with individual generators running out of fuel before replenishment can reach them. FUBAR.

With all of these combined factors, essentially, after tonight – everything is in full hunker down mode until approximately a week from now.  I’m not too optimistic that most people are aware of that likely probability.  That leads to the concerns of lawlessness etc.

As a rough guess, based entirely on just driving around paying attention, it would appear about 25% of homesteads are not prepared at all.  About 50% of those observed in the region are moderately prepared, and about 25% appear generally well prepared.

I would estimate the number of people fully comprehending what might take place over the next 5-10 days (meaning having some foundational knowledge of how to move forward amid chaos) in the 3-5% range.  Not coincidentally, that’s about the same range of the general population who would be considered “preppers”.

With massive power outages, little to no operational infrastructure, and a severe shortage of fuel… well, things loom as potentially sketchy.

Bryan Norcross at 5:00pm –  The top winds in Irma have decreased a little bit from yesterday. Do NOT think of this as weakening. The energy of the hurricane is simply spreading out – which just further guarantees the entire state of Florida, except the western panhandle, will get damaging winds from the storm.

We still don’t know where exactly where the fiercest winds with hit. The afternoon computer models have shifted to the west.

If that turns out to be the final track, the Miami to West Palm Beach corridor will not receive the strongest winds in the storm. But, until Irma makes the turn toward Florida, we can’t be sure and, certainly, no one should let down their guard.

This westward shift just further confirms that the west coast of the Florida is at an extremely high risk of dangerous flooding from the Gulf water being pushed over the land – most likely late Sunday into Monday in Southwest Florida, then moving up the coast. Do not risk your life if you are in dangerous location. Every county knows where those areas are. Know your risk.

The hazards will move north over the ENTIRE peninsula through the weekend, including life-threatening storm surge along both coasts and on bays, rivers, and canals connecting to the ocean. The strongest winds will decrease as Irma moves north, but the trees and buildings in West, Central, and North Florida are not as resilient to strong wind as they are in Greater Miami, so the extreme threat continues.

Look for failure points in your home, and trees that could blow down on your house or your car. Be sure you plan to stay in a part of the house that is as protected as possible from flying debris or falling trees. Consider getting mattresses off your bed to fortify your safe spot as the storm approaches over the weekend.

This is it, South Florida. Your last chance for full preparation. And the window is closing farther north in the state.

Once again, I’m including a list of thing to do, most of which you can still take care of. Also, here are the key messages about the storm from the National Hurricane Center. STAY SAFE.

Also, attached is the shopping list from Brevard County – except I recommend 7-days supply of food and water and an AM/FM portable radio.

NHC’S KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

YOUR TO-DO LIST

1. Try to get LED flashlights and lanterns. They last much longer. Have at least one flashlight for every person in your family, and ideally have a lantern or two for general lighting.

2. Get a portable radio and plenty of batteries so your whole family can listen to news coverage if the power goes out. Do NOT depend on your cellphone for communications.

3. Take photos today or tomorrow of every room, every piece of electronics, and everything valuable. Upload the pictures to the cloud – Dropbox, Microsoft Cloud, iCloud, Google Drive, etc. – before the storm.

4. Also take photos of key documents and upload them as well. You can do that today.

5. Save your contacts in your phone to the cloud. If you don’t know how to do that, frame grab your screen or have someone take photos of your contacts with their phone and email or text the pictures back to you to a friend. Don’t take a chance on losing your contacts if something happens to your phone.

6. Secure your photographs and albums in double plastic bags.

7. Plastic bags and duct tape are your friends. You can’t buy too many of them. Put documents in gallons-size (or larger) Ziploc bags. Put larger items in double large trash bags cocooned so the opening of the first bag is in the bottom of the second bag. Put some clothes in plastic bags in case you get a roof leak. Duct tape bags closed. Put valuables on a high shelf in a closet.

8. Think now about where you are going to park your car. A parking garage is ideal. Outside in a low-lying area or under a tree is the worst. Think about all of the cars you’ve seen ruined in storms because people made bad choices about where they parked the car before the storm. When we know the storm track, we’ll have a better idea which side of a building will give the best protection. Next to a building on the downwind side gives you the best chance if you have to leave your car outside.

9. Do your laundry and wash your dishes before the storm.

10. You dishwasher is an excellent “safe” in your house if you need someplace to put valuables. Your washer and dryer can offer good protection as well. These could be good places to put your bagged-up photos, for example.

11. Fill Ziploc bags ¾ full of water and stuff them in your freezer to fill up the space. The less air you have in the freezer, the longer your refrigerator will stay cold. Do NOT turn your refrigerator to any lower setting than normal – that can damage the unit.

12. Choose a friend or relative out of town to be the contact point for your family or group of friends. After a storm, it is always easier to get a call out of the area than within the storm zone. Be sure everybody has the out-of-town number and make a plan to check in ASAP after the storm.

13. If you live in a high rise, be sure you know what the procedures are going to be in the building. Will the building be evacuated? Will the water continue to work? Will elevators work? What is on a generator? If you can stay in the building (if it’s away from the water) find an interior hallway on a low floor where you can set up camp during the storm. It will not be safe to be on a high floor or near windows, even with modern hurricane impact windows. A hallway surrounded by concrete is your best bet.

14. Buy a plastic sheet – the kind you’d use as a drop cloth for painting – to line your bath tub. Line the bath tub and fill it with water before the storm. You’ll use this water to flush the toilet if the city water goes out. A sauce pan is a good scoop. Fill the tank and your toilet will work like normal.

15. Think about what you will sit on if you are in a hallway or other safe spot for a number of hours – maybe 12 hours or more. Consider comfortable folding chairs. Take food to your safe spot. Have books or other non-electronic amusements, including for the kids.

16. To repeat!! Do NOT count on your cellphone for communications. When Harvey hit Texas as a Cat 4, it knocked out the mobile phone system. In addition, your battery may run down and you may have no ability to charge it. Have an adapter so you can charge your cellphone in a car, have extra charges, and back-up batteries if you can.

17. Pick up your yard and anything that might blow in the wind. Bring in pool furniture if you can. Don’t put it in the water because it can damage the pool.

18. Check the shopping list attached below from Brevard County, Florida. It’s good, except I recommend 7 days of water and food, and an AM/FM portable radio so you can keep up with news coverage.

19. Most importantly, be sure you know a safe place where you and your family can ride out the storm, if it comes. This is the most critical decision you can make today. There almost certainly will be evacuations ordered for parts of Florida. If you live near the water, put together the food, clothes, valuable items, and important papers you’ll take with you NOW. Leave as early as possible. There will be a crush on the road and you may not find a hotel in the entire state of Florida.

20. Think clearly and carefully. This is it.

For our friends in the Westward Keys and Southern Gulf Side (South West Florida), please pay particular attention to this current storms path. Unlike the Eastern coast of Florida the South West coast (Gulf Side) is primarily made up of recently populated “shallow water” Gulf barrier Islands. A Category 4 or 5 storm that skirts the Western coast of Florida, from Ten Thousand Islands Northward to Sarasota, and maintains inflow energy from the Gulf of Mexico, is a topography changing event.

Repeat: “A topography changing event.”

Shallow Water Coastal Vulnerability

In a scenario where Cat 4 or 5 Irma continues Northwest (current track), then takes a sharp right turn, Northward up the Southwest coast of Florida, well, the coastal vulnerabilities are almost too staggering to contemplate.

Beginning in the area of Everglades City and Ten Thousand Islands; northward through Marco Island, Naples Beach, Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Estero Island, Sanibel Island, Captiva Island, Upper Captiva Island, Useppa Island, The Caloosahatchee River inlet, Pine Island, Cape Coral, Bokeelia, Matlacha, Boca Grande as far North as Siesta Key and into the intracoastal waterway would be almost unfathomable in the scale of how the coastal topography would change.

These Islands, while they may not be familiarly referenced as “barrier islands”, simply because decades have past and populations have developed them, are exactly that “Barrier Islands”. These shallow water gulf areas along the coast have not had severe storm surge disturbances for 60+ years.

The tenuous coastal and barrier island ‘ground‘ is crushed shell and sand, and their entire topography is subject to change as the shallow and severely churned gulf waters carry in sand/silt and excavate the same.

Just like 2004’s Hurricane Charley split an entire island (Upper Captiva) in less than 15 minutes, so too could entire coastal communities be split or covered in sand within a few hours. Bridges rising from mainland on one side could disappear into the new coastal Gulf of Mexico on the other, with the barrier island completely removed.

Nature is a powerful force.

Fill a cereal bowl 3/4 full with water and move it quickly from side to side, some water will splash out; that’s the East Coast Atlantic storm surge.   However, fill a dinner plate 3/4 full with water and move it quickly from side to side and it will empty itself; that’s the gulf side storm surge.

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485 Responses to BREAKING: 5.6 Million Floridians Urged To Evacuate Ahead of Irma…

  1. Pam says:

    Liked by 3 people

    • shallbe4 says:

      Almost every town has a shelter so these people who are being told to evacuate are told to go to those shelters if they don’t have enough gas to go further.

      Like

  2. Pam says:

    Like

    • whirlwinder says:

      Irma has been on a mostly straight path since Sept 5 (16.7 & 57.7) and Sept. 9 at 7 AM (22.5 & 78.8) I think it may scrape the southern tip of Florida and we will see landfall in Alabama or Mississippi. Plot those coordinates and tell me what you think!!!!!!!

      Like

  3. Pam says:

    Like

  4. treehouseron says:

    Just in case anyone thinks this won’t be too bad… here’s a video of a rescue from Harvey just two weeks ago. It can absolutely get really bad. Things we don’t think about… look at the depth of the water, and imagine this man and his wife (who we don’t see) were in THIS high of water, in THAT house, all night long. It’s a miracle they didn’t drown that night.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. andi lee says:

    Another Harvey lesson:

    Prepare, plan, the tools / equipment / route / pets neccessary for rooftop evacuation. Tarp handy for sheltering from wind / rain. Do not climb into the attic. Do not leave pets behind, please!

    (A white sheet on rooftop is very visible from above; hang one on front door or a front window, -“help! On roof!”)

    Liked by 1 person

  6. treehouseron says:

    Just found out my half sister is going to ride it out in Naples. You know… ground zero. We’re not close or I’d try to change her mind…

    Liked by 2 people

  7. hugofitch1 says:

    I have a brother in Naples. He didn’t evacuate. Interestingly, he used to own a storm door/window company down there.

    Liked by 1 person

    • donebydesign says:

      Good for him. Sounds like he has risk mgmt skills.

      It’s gonna be wind, water, or impact that gets you. If his elevation is good…cross off water. Assuming his storm shutters are miamidade, has no gables, and did a bombproof garage door, he’s in fine shape. If it’s a newer house, he might have double wrapped trusses to keep his roof. Assuming no trees that can crush him then it sounds like he is fully prepped. No need to evac. Just keep the firearms close for the coming week. He should be ok.

      Liked by 1 person

      • hugofitch1 says:

        Thank you. e was an Air Force fighter pilot & VP of a large, multinational corp, so he’s done his share of risk assessment. Still, I’d have preferred him to have erred on the side of caution.

        Like

        • Jimmy Jack says:

          Is he single?

          Jk 😘

          Liked by 1 person

          • hugofitch1 says:

            Ha, no, he had his mid-life crisis, left his wife of 30+ years, bought a Harley, and took up with a former Miss Fitness USA or some such. He’s about 5 miles inland and stocked to the gills. He’ll be okay. Plenty of food, water, gas, propane, generator, and guns.

            Like

  8. G. Combs says:

    My usual:
    REGULAR UNSCENTED CLorox to disinfect water
    emergency disinfect water chlorox
    Also cheese cloth and coffe filters to remove particulates first.

    RICE! and probiotic tables or cheeses for bad tummys
    Rice/corn starch water is used to rehydrate Cholera victims

    Long grain rice contains resistant starch (RS) that selectively feeds beneficial bacteria in the gut Since the RS is not used as an energy source by bacteria in the small intestine, it does not contribute to SIBO (standing for small intestinal bacterial overgrowth). Not only does it not feed the bacteria in the small intestine, but many strains of pathogenic have been shown to adhere to the starch, thus carrying them out of the small intestine and into the large intestine where they can be excreted in feces. So it reduces levels of pathogens, while it is selectively used by beneficial bacteria.

    References:
    http://aem.asm.org/content/71/8/4850.full.pdf ( corn starch with rice starch as close second is used to rehydrate Cholera victims)
    http://aem.asm.org/content/66/10/4212.full (For actual photograph taken of bacteria adhering to resistant starch)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC93045/

    Liked by 3 people

    • Delilah says:

      Excellent info.

      Remember that sour cream, yogurt, buttermilk, kefir, and some cheeses standing in liquids all have probiotics.

      That clear liquid that they all generate? That’s called whey, which is chock full of probiotics. It’s completely safe to drink, but also remember that it’s fermented, which means it may have a slight alcohol content to it too.

      Like

      • Delilah says:

        Man has used fermentation to preserve foods for ages. The reason why this works is, the good bacteria overtakes and overpowers the bad bacteria and denies it the oxygen, food, and minerals the bad bacteria needs to survive.

        Like

    • Bethany says:

      Thank you for this information!

      Like

  9. Beenthere says:

    Good luck & Godpseed to all those in Irma’s path.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. sunnydaze says:

    Blech. Evac’ing tomorrow to an area farther from the coast. Friends in NE FL.

    Here’s an easy to use wind/’cane map:

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=21.0;-80.3;5&l=gust

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Ziiggii says:

    Looks like she’s starting to turn possibly – in the last few frames….
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-avn-long.html
    The wobble looks like it’s stopping and she’s finding her center again and will start to move NW and then N in the next 6-8 hours.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. James W Crawford says:

    I just watched the computer simulated animation of the aftermath of Irma. Big takeaway is that the modern highrise towers constructed of steel and better yet concrete remain standing while wood houses are destroyed or flooded. If you cannot evacuate, you need to seek the best shelter. If you live in a highrise concrete building, stay home but ride out the storm in an interior hallway. If not, relocate to a high rise parking garage. Get above the ground floor but below the roof.. Hopefully, people can cooperate to circle their cars for extra protection. Stay inside the area encircled by the cars.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. flounder, rebel, vulgarian, deplorable, winner says:

    This guy, who I watch frequently is staying put in Key West. I honestly don’t think he had much of a choice, given his location and the potential for backups and becoming stranded on the road.

    Stay safe, tree people.

    Liked by 3 people

  14. It's 5 O'clock Somewhere says:

    Good evening my Treeper family. Been ahwhile since I have posted. Please pray for my son in law whose Wisconsin Guard unit has been activated in Florida. He is leaving at 8 am tomorrow and expected to be gone 60 days. I love you guys and know that prayer requests mean a lot here. God bless our wonderful National Guard.

    Liked by 19 people

  15. Kristin says:

    Sundance and many other Floridians: be well. You are in my prayers. You are in our prayers.

    Liked by 9 people

  16. Chris says:

    We all have family or good freinds in Fla, or know someone who does, I’ll be keeping an eye on the weather, their safety and welfare , keeping in touch with the Lord . Keeping ALL you good people in my thoughts and prayers. Get back in touch treeps when you can, let us know you are OK.

    GodBless

    Liked by 4 people

  17. andi lee says:

    Heavenly Father, Hallowed be Thy Name!

    Godspeed!
    Staging in Georgia already.
    Pure love … for love of our fellow neighbors, the road is never long!

    Liked by 5 people

  18. James W Crawford says:

    Who is or what is Pam that she is a veritable fount of information?
    thank you whoever you are.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. HHScheller says:

    Here in Tornado Country (Indiana) we also are reminded that most homes have a water supply for drinking consisting of the 50 or so gallons contained in the water heater tank.

    Like

  20. I just got back from the OK State vs South Alabama game in Mobile, Al.. We have to cross Mobile Bay on I10 or 98 to get to Mobile. On the way west I10 was bumper to bumper – mostly Florida tags. Locals were on 98. .

    Police would not let west bound motorists turn into the Bankhead tunnel. Thatwould have created a nightmare and backed up I10 for hundreds of miles. They also wouldn’t let them get off on the exits to the “bad” parts of Mobile – it was the right thing to do, to protect them and keep traffic moving. This was amazing planning and coordination.

    The traffic was the same 11:00 PM when we were coming home… west bound I10 was bumper to bumper, stop and start. Our hotels are full. Those people must be miserable.

    Liked by 2 people

  21. Lou says:

    Just recently went through Harvey. We were very lucky. Prayers and luck to all of you in the target area of this beast.

    Liked by 4 people

  22. zephyrbreeze says:

    A friend’s son-in-law is having to remain in Cocoa Beach with the military. His wife is forced to evacuate with 4 children under the age of 8 including 3 week old. What a nightmare.

    The disruption of lives, especially of school age children and teenagers who would rather be at football games and making progress towards graduating than sleeping in a shelter, is tragic. Just reading through the lists in the article, made me sad, for all the suffering that is to come.

    God does love us. His plan for us is real, and it’s based on love. Loving people are willing to help others. I hope we have as much love and logistical support as this epic crisis will require.

    God bless us all, and God bless America.

    Liked by 4 people

    • harrietht3 says:

      These are toughening experiences for the teenagers you cite, a taste of real danger that alerts them to the harsh realities of life. Part of the maturation process. Life is not all popcorn and cheerleaders, kind zephyrbreeze.

      And yes indeed: these life-threatening and harrowing times provide unparalleled opportunities for our Light to shine, in helping others.

      Liked by 1 person

  23. andi lee says:

    StormForce (storm chaser) down in the Keys! 😨

    @icyclone on the mainland (currently).

    Like

  24. Sylvia Avery says:

    Lifezette interviewed a guy who used to work for USCIS and that interviewed is reported on in Breitbart. See link below. The guy claims that there is a lot of fraud in DACA. They were under a lot of pressure to get the applicants in and through the system so they didn’t verify much if any information. Lots of fraud and abuse, 40-50 percent or even higher.

    http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2017/09/07/daca-fraud-rate-40-50-percent-says-former-immigration-official/

    Liked by 1 person

  25. The Devilbat says:

    A WORD OF WARNING TO MY FELLOW FLORIDIANS:

    Never use a propane camping stove or lamp indoors. They release deadly – odorless carbon monoxide gas that will put you to sleep and kill you. They are OK for screened porches and places where there is plenty of ventilation. Carbon monoxide is heavier than air so be very careful where you use these devices.

    May God be with all of us. This storm is a killer.

    Liked by 5 people

  26. Deb says:

    St. Michael the Archangel, Defend us in battle.
    Be our defense against the wickedness and snares of the Devil.
    May God rebuke him we humbly pray,
    And do thou, oh Prince of the heavenly hosts,
    By the power of a God,
    Thrust into Hell Satan, and all the evil spirits
    Who prowl about the world, seeking the ruin of souls.
    In Jesus’ name, Amen.

    Like

  27. jello333 says:

    To my friends here who are in the path… please be safe. 😦 And especially to you, Sundance… love ya, guy.

    Like

  28. andi lee says:

    Like

  29. M33 says:

    Be safe, Sundance!

    All of us here at the treehouse cannot thank you enough for the work that you do.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. shallbe4 says:

    God bless you Sundance. Its like people needed Trump to cheer them up during the Hurricanes. WE NEED YOU.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. jcbinjcmo says:

    Godspeed to all in Florida. My prayers are being lifted for your protection during this traumatic time. God Bless Florida and God Bless America!

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Delilah says:

    Yes, you can get hypothermia in warmer waters. You have to remember that water is always colder than your core body temp….

    Even water temperatures as high as 75 and 80 degrees F (24 and 27 degrees C) can be dangerous, but it would most likely take much longer than 15 minutes to become debilitated. There is no set time for when hypothermia will set in, but generally the colder the water, the faster it happens.Jan 16, 2009
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/airplane-1549-hudson-hypothermia/

    Like

  33. Delilah says:

    Adam Gingrich has put together an army of people who are going to descend on FL at the earliest available opportunity to do whatever is needed to help our fellow Trumpers. If you need anything, contact him on twitter: https://twitter.com/gingrich_of_pa?lang=en

    Like

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