Hurricane Irma Strengthens To Category 5 Storm – 185 MPH Winds…

As anticipated Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a severe category 5 storm. At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. –ADVISORY HERE

On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph (295km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

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259 Responses to Hurricane Irma Strengthens To Category 5 Storm – 185 MPH Winds…

  1. Ziiggii says:

    GFS has not preformed as well as the Euro with Irma, but this is what I was talking about earlier…

    as we get closer to the weekend things will be a bit clearer, these are outliers at this point still

    Latest GFS takes it along the Florida coast, much like Matthew last year and then straight into NC just south of Wilmington… my Oak Island may be wiped off the map if that holds true.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Pam says:

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Howie says:

    After a cane hits….the best place to be. is someplace, with electricity. That is all.

    Liked by 5 people

  4. tvollrath66 says:

    i live in lake wales. central florida right in the middle from tampa and vero beach. i went to walmart at about 3:30 today and there was hardly anything left. 1 jar of peanut butter …i have never seen anything like it. im originally from west of atlanta. i have seen water and bread run out is snow was coming, but nothing like this. no soup cheese almost gone juice too even the cheap kind of mac and cheese. i couldn’t believe it. about 20 people in line for the primo water machine in front of the store…i am not really worried about flooding, im on a hill from the lake about 3 football fields, but the wind. if it comes in from south fl at 170 or higher it wont have time to slow down that much…idk maybe it will turn in the atlantic before it gets to florida..

    Liked by 8 people

    • Howie says:

      The Krazy forecasts are driving Floriduhings nuts. Same her in Citrus County and it will only get worse.

      Liked by 4 people

    • I’m in Vero and almost everyone here is leaving. Stores were cleaned out this morning and all the gas stations were packed. Been here a year and a half and for Matthew drove all the way to Columbia SC, right past Charleston and Savannah which were hit after I went by. Columbia doesn’t look like a safe place this year though.
      I have enough gas in my car to go 500 miles but not knowing if I should wait to see which direction seems best or just head for the middle of Alabama. I haven’t seen any models that say mid Alabama could be hit. Worried that waiting might make it impossible to get very far because of rush hour traffic. Thinking I’ll find a nice rest stop somewhere out of the way to wait it out.
      Funny thing is I just drove back from Northern AL on Saturday. Wish I’d just stayed!

      Liked by 5 people

      • tvollrath66 says:

        i thought about that too. i have a brother in crawfordville in the panhandle thought about going their then
        on west if it comes that way. i just dont like the wind. i keep thinking what if the roof comes off. : ( but i dont want to get stuck on 27 or I-75…

        Liked by 1 person

        • Alligator Gar says:

          I’m in Crawfordville. I have a plan to evacuate to Dothan, AL. I guarantee you that if we get TS or Cat 1 winds, C’ville will be without power for weeks. We went through that with Hermine last year. Too many trees…. I’d go to Bainbridge, GA at least. Just me, though. YMMV. 🙂

          Liked by 1 person

          • I ended up spending 2 days on the freeways on a journey to Auburn, AL. Getting there was torture and I stopped at Ocala for some sleep in a truck stop after 9 hours of crawling along.
            Anyway, my condo was perfect and we never even lost power. So I am blessed and someday will forget that drive when they evacuate again.

            Like

        • I know. No fun stuck out on that highway. I’m hoping it’s not for days! I wonder if all the adult diapers are sold out.

          Like

    • justfactsplz says:

      I live close to Deland, Florida, about thirty five miles from Daytona Beach and New Smyrna Beach. We also went to Walmart today. It was a zoo, people everywhere and only a few cashiers. The soup aisle was vacant save a can of golden mushroom and a few cans of split pea. Water was sold out. Toilet paper and batteries were sold out. We already were well supplied but needed to pick up insulin for my husband so he wouldn’t run out in the middle of a storm. It is the high winds that concern me along with possible inland flooding. The river down by the drawbridge that is close to me is already pretty high.

      Liked by 1 person

    • TAP WATER, NOW..
      (remember worst case, you can use your “water heater” water….) they have a “drain” on the bottom..
      AND FILL your bath tub!

      Liked by 4 people

      • JM Covfefe says:

        If you intend to use the water heater for backup, flush it now! If it hasn’t been flushed in the last few years, there will be a lot of slimy gunk in the bottom. (To flush, just run a hose from that spigot on the bottom to a drain, and open the valve until the water comes out of the hose clear.)
        Another idea, i have some clever bathtub sized baggies I bought on Amazon years ago, made for emergency water storage. Think they were called Water Bob’s back then. Never had to use one.

        Liked by 4 people

      • oldiadguy says:

        Exactly, if you can’t buy water, start filling any ting that will hold fresh water including ziplock bags. Improvise, Adapt, Overcome

        Take Care and if you can, leave early rather than later.

        Liked by 3 people

  5. Howie says:

    Floriduh people are worried. Bigly. Wondering what to do. This is awful.

    Liked by 5 people

  6. Ziiggii says:

    St. Bart webcam

    Liked by 2 people

  7. 145kt SFMR in the NE eye wall, 160kt FL winds… extrapolated pressure ~914mb.

    Like

  8. tvollrath66 says:

    i dont know if people are staying or leaving here …stores are empty but gas stations are full…maybe they are taking the stuff with them…lol

    Like

  9. In nearly 40 years of observing hurricanes intensively, this is #1 on the awe scale. Truly a natural wonder!

    But back on to the meteorology of it. When this comes into the US Doppler Radar range, (assuming it has little land interaction), I no doubt believe we will see 2, maybe three concentric “eyewalls”…ie a CAT 5 within a Cat 2, within a TS…All the models show this storm growing in size, all the while lowering the pressure of the outer portions of the system….I do believe we will go sub-900 north of Cuba (again assuming no LF/little land interaction….that said, I think we are at or near the peak of max winds….(maybe we touch 200mph), but needless to say, even at 140-150 max (and a large core of hurricane force winds or higher) this has a very high potential of demonstrating effects like we haven’t seen since 1935.

    Liked by 3 people

  10. STATS…
    After another day of watching Irma, I still think that the Florida-South Carolina area remains at the highest risk of U.S. landfall from Irma (though the larger area at some risk of landfall extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Outer Banks of North Carolina; outside that area the risk seems low). I note the 18z GFS, but it seems to be an outlier both among its ensembles and the other guidance.

    I also have little change in my thinking that the probability of U.S. landfall is around 75%.That is now close to the 73% figure from historical climatology for all major hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Irma’s 5 pm position (1851-present) and somewhat below the implied outcome of the 12z ECMWF ensembles.

    In terms of historic climatology, 7/8 (88%) of the hurricanes that made landfall from the above-referenced sample made landfall in the Florida-South Carolina area and 6/7 (86%) of those hurricanes had Florida landfall.

    Half of the hurricanes that made Florida landfall made prior landfall over Cuba.
    Those that made landfall in Cuba were Category 1 or Category 2 storms upon Florida landfall. Two of the three hurricanes that did not make landfall on Cuba came ashore in Florida as Category 4 storms (the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane and Donna in 1960). A category 4 Florida landfall still seems more likely than a Category 1 landfall.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Recon. had a 913.1 mb extrapolated surface pressure a short time ago.

    Like

  12. auntiefran413 says:

    I’ve just suggested that my son and his wife (in Florida) join my granddaughter and her husband (in South Carolina) in going to Georgia (about 60 miles north of Atlanta) to my daughter’s home. That daughter is the SC granddaughter’s mother. Heck, I just might join them.3

    Like

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