The Clinton campaign is relying on a heavily promoted narrative that minority voting, specifically black voting, is lower as compared to 2012 and 2008. This approach appears to be their effort to boost voter turnout. However, this narrative is not necessarily true.
If you pay close attention to their cited comparables – what the MSM are comparing is often “percentage of voters“, not the underlying raw voter stat.
FYI, Example:
- If 10 out of 50 voters are black = 20% black voting.
- If 15 out of 100 voters are black = 15% black voting.
Even though the number of black voters in this example is higher (15 vs 10), the current preferred media narrative is to focus on the percentage (15% vs 20%).
In almost all media broadcasts they are using the percentage of vote as the metric to drive the narrative. Few, if any, are showing the underlying number of voters.
Why this is important. 1) Focusing on the percentage drives the helpful narrative to team Clinton. 2) It also hides the underlying bigger narrative the MSM are desperate to ignore.
The larger narrative is these turnout stats show evidence of the Monster Vote surfacing.
All comparable percentages of any minority voting bloc are reduced in direct proportion to the scope of the total voting bloc as it enlarges.
Many of the articles and media reports you might see focus exclusively on the percentage of a specific category of voter, and as a direct consequence they are obfuscating the topline increases which reflect the Monster Vote appearing. EXAMPLE:
Many articles written about minority turnout are inherently structured with this flaw. See Atlantic Example Here. Which is based on THIS DATA.
In some cases, especially in some counties, it might be accurate to say that a specific voting bloc is lower in turnout (ballot or early vote) compared to 2012. However, it is not an accurate assessment to use the percent of vote to make that determination.
It is a fact there is less enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton amid black voters. We have been discussing that, with examples, for several months. But the scope of that lag is yet to be determined, and many of the African American voters are also voting for Donald Trump.
