A non-media poll by Mason Dixon of central Florida Voters (I-4 Corridor) finds Donald Trump leading overall: 46% Trump to 42% for Clinton.
More interestingly, and many would say more importantly, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by 14 points with independent voters: Trump 44%, Clinton 30%
This tracks with the previous outline we shared discussing voter registration, voter intent, voter engagement, and voter analysis within Florida. All of the previous factors, without media spin, show Donald Trump positioned to crush Hillary Clinton in Florida.
The Mason Dixon poll is especially valuable when you consider the strategic demographics of the area. Central Florida is a high concentration of Latino and Hispanic voters. If Trump wins the I-4 corridor (Tampa, Lakeland, Orlando, Daytona), most likely, Clinton can only hope to carry Dade County (same demo won by Rubio in the primary).
Previously we shared – In various media presentations you will often hear of Florida listed as a “battleground state“; some media call Florida a “swing state“.
Historically, this has been an accurate representation for the past 5 presidential election cycles. However, changes in the past several years position Florida as highly favorable to a Donald Trump win.
Here’s why we can be confident that Donald Trump will win Florida. The following table lists voter registration as complied by the Florida Division of Elections:
Source Link Here – As noted above, in 2012 Democrats held a 558,272 registration advantage over Republicans; Mitt Romney lost the state of Florida to President Obama by 73,189 votes (50% to 49.1%) – Source.
Notice since 2012 Republican registration has increased by 164K, while Democrat registration has actually decreased by 135k.
Since election year 2012 GOP registration has surged and reduced the overall Dem advantage by almost 300,000, to where it currently stands at 258,648. This is in part driven by the closed primary process where voters can only vote for their registered party candidate.
Currently the registration in Florida is:
- Republican 35.31%
- Democrat 37.92%
- Independent/Other 26.25%.
Compare those current real-time accurate party affiliation percentages to the Media-Polling done amid the various “battleground” or “swing state” polls and you’ll note significant undersampling of Republicans by 4 to 7 points – Example Quinnipiac. [*note* CBS never gives their breakdown of party affiliation for their “battleground polls”] There’s a reason for that, but I digress, because it gets tiresome shredding these media polls.
However, another key element to note in Florida is the 2015/2016 shift from Independent to Republican specifically to vote FOR Donald Trump in the GOP Primary:
Independent voter registration in Florida, in each presidential election year, was increasing by approximately 250,000 +/- (See Historical Chart). However, from 2015 to 2016 the independent registration numbers barely moved. Instead what you see is a massive jump in Republican registration.
This data shift away from Independent and into Republican statistically shows the surge in voter registration to vote in the 2016 Florida Presidential Primary. Virtually all of that movement was specifically to vote for Donald Trump (see below):
Despite the MSM
protestations narrative leading up to a “tight Florida primary race“, you can see -and might remember- it wasn’t even close. Donald Trump won every county except Dade County (Miami). A Historical Context for that “blowout” victory is HERE.
♦ In 2012 despite a 558k Dem voter registration advantage, Obama only beat Romney by 73k votes (50% to 49%). This year 300k independents have already surged into the ranks of the Florida GOP easily overcoming the historical challenge present in 2012.
It is safe to say these results provide a great measure of confidence for Florida’s large electoral prize to be considered in Trump’s column. There is virtually nothing on the horizon that can remove that confidence.
Because of it’s size, geography and scope of non-native residents, Florida is also a microcosm for the entire national electorate. SEE HERE
Pictured Above: Donald Trump Rally Fort Lauderdale, FL – August 10th 2016
Pictured Above: Donald Trump Rally Daytona, FL – August 3rd 2016
♦ Additionally, despite the almost embedded talking points about Florida elections since the Bush-Gore contest/fiasco of 2000, Florida is now a solid voter security state. Voter ID is required in Florida, and the State Elections Office (Republican) has revamped the entire process in the past several cycles.
In part due to Republican Governors, a Republican majority in the State House and Senate, and Republican elected officials holding all the top offices throughout the state, the voter roles are required to be purged and refreshed regularly by local officials (**Always remember** lots of people die in Florida – retiree population).
There are 18 Republicans and only 9 Democrats in the entire federal political delegation. Of all the states that might be prone to electoral fraud, Florida is at the bottom of that concern list.
Florida is Trump Country, and that’s a significant part of the reason we can comfortably state *¹this won’t be close folks, it won’t even be close:
*¹disclaimer* The data provided above assumes no substantive change in Trump policy which may diminish enthusiasm, and/or change the voter turnout model.