By now most CTH readers are familiar with the more notoriously biased polling manipulators.
One of those is Patrick Murray from Monmouth University [@PollsterPatrick on Twitter].
If you want to know where his political affiliations lie, you only need to read his twitter feed. Murray has also been on Fox News with Bill O’Reilly several times selling his polling results to the unwitting audience.
Today, Monmouth via Patrick Murray presents a presidential poll of Ohio voters. The actual raw data (pdf available here – see pg, 6 and 7) showed Donald Trump with a lead in the result; however, Murray changed the data through weighting to show Hillary Clinton with a lead.
“GOUSAAMER114” pointed out the manipulation:
Monmouth just announced that Clinton leads Trump 43-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick actually laid out what he did on pages 6 and 7 of the PDF.
He sampled 402 voters. In the unweighted sample, the split was 33.3R/29.3D/35.6I. With that split, Trump leads Clinton 41-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick re-weighted it to a 29R/33D/37I split. Nothing else was re-weighted.
It’s obvious Murray didn’t expect to be called out on it – because when confronted with what he did, pollster Patrick Murray flat out lied.
You can do the math yourself and see that no “weighting” was done by “region, age, race, or gender” only by party ID.
Just as a reminder “weighting” is the term used for actually changing the raw data to reflect the “assumptions” the pollster puts into the anticipated turnout of the election.
Depending on the “assumptions” (guesses about who will vote), and the “weighting” therein, the entire poll outcome can be severely manipulated and even reversed.
Personally, I like to tell these pollsters to just “show their work“, you know – like your math teacher used to force you to do in school in order to get full credit for the assignment. At that point most of the pollsters run and hide because essentially their argument is reduced to “trust me“. Yeah, good luck with that… LOL.
This is not the first time Monmouth, via Patrick Murray, has intentionally done this; and it won’t be the first time Murray has been gobsmackingly wrong as an outcome when the election actually takes place. Just ask president Mondale.
But hey, it feeds a media narrative for a cycle or two… and, after all, that’s really the intent here.