After presenting the recent Georgia Poll, and explaining the reason for the focus on Georgia specifically, we predicted where the left-leaning PPP pollsters would follow-up.
“Look for PPP to focus attention toward FL and OH/PA next.” – link
Today that prediction proved accurate as PPP shifted attention to Florida (full pdf below) and surveyed 737 registered voters from June 2nd to June 5th. In addition to sensing the electorate, the industrial political media are trying to frame an election approach, a very specific narrative. However, the results they find keep running counter to their desire:
Not only does Donald Trump edge out Hillary Clinton with current Florida polling, but the cross tabs of the demographics destroy two very specific media narratives:
- Female voters have a higher unfavorability opinion of Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump by a margin of 56% to 55%.
- Female Voters support Donald Trump (45%) over Hillary Clinton (44%) by the same margin as the general electorate result. 45/44
In addition 14% of registered Democrats support Donald Trump. Conversely only 9% of registered republicans would support Hillary Clinton.
This is where it is important to remember the earlier primary contest within Florida and how the demographics broke out.
More Hispanic voters, specifically Mexican Hispanics, in the Florida inland crop/farm counties voted for Donald Trump than voted for Hillary Clinton; and that’s despite a higher registration of Democrats within those same communities.
We call this the unmeasurable “Patrone’ Effect“:
On the Senate side the reality of the Florida political climate is evidenced within this poll with the state electorate view on Senator Marco Rubio. Despite the GOPe protestations to the contrary, this poll clearly shows Floridians are done with Rubio; they simply want him to go away.
Political opinion in Florida is reflective of two distinct attributes: #1) Florida, as a consequence of the national melting pot, is widely representative of the national demographic and sentiment. And, #2) The historic trend in Florida (think Charlie Crist), is once you’ve exhausted the emotional/trust bank account – you’re done, kaput, over.
(Via PPP) PPP’s new Florida poll finds that Marco Rubio remains quite unpopular in the state in the wake of his unsuccessful Presidential bid, and that voters aren’t interested in seeing him run for the Senate this year.
Only 32% of voters in the state approve of the job Rubio is doing as Senator, to 54% who disapprove. Those numbers make him one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even among Republicans his numbers are barely positive at 51/37 and he does very poorly with both independents (25/54) and Democrats (18/70). Only 39% of voters in the state want him to run for reelection this year, compared to 51% who say he should sit it out.
If Rubio did decide to run, he would face a tough contest. He trails Patrick Murphy 44-43 in a hypothetical match up, and that comes despite Murphy currently having only 38% name recognition (20% favorable, 18% unfavorable). Among voters who are actually familiar with both Murphy and Rubio, Murphy’s advantage widens to 22 points at 57/35. Murphy would start out as a wider favorite over Carlos Beruff (43/31) and David Jolly (44/29). (read more)
Here’s the Full Poll Data: