PPP Florida Poll: Donald Trump 45%, Hillary Clinton 44% – (Oh, and Marco Rubio is Toast)…

After presenting the recent Georgia Poll, and explaining the reason for the focus on Georgia specifically, we predicted where the left-leaning PPP pollsters would follow-up.

“Look for PPP to focus attention toward FL and OH/PA next.” – link

Today that prediction proved accurate as PPP shifted attention to Florida (full pdf below) and surveyed 737 registered voters from June 2nd to June 5th.  In addition to sensing the electorate, the industrial political media are trying to frame an election approach, a very specific narrative. However, the results they find keep running counter to their desire:

2 candidate trump vs clinton - PPP Poll Florida

Not only does Donald Trump edge out Hillary Clinton with current Florida polling, but the cross tabs of the demographics destroy two very specific media narratives:

  • Female voters have a higher unfavorability opinion of Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump by a margin of 56% to 55%.
  • Female Voters support Donald Trump (45%) over Hillary Clinton (44%) by the same margin as the general electorate result.  45/44

In addition 14% of registered Democrats support Donald Trump.  Conversely only 9% of registered republicans would support Hillary Clinton.

Florida primaryThis is where it is important to remember the earlier primary contest within Florida and how the demographics broke out.

More Hispanic voters, specifically Mexican Hispanics, in the Florida inland crop/farm counties voted for Donald Trump than voted for Hillary Clinton; and that’s despite a higher registration of Democrats within those same communities.

We call this the unmeasurable “Patrone’ Effect“:

On the Senate side the reality of the Florida political climate is evidenced within this poll with the state electorate view on Senator Marco Rubio.  Despite the GOPe protestations to the contrary, this poll clearly shows Floridians are done with Rubio; they simply want him to go away.

Political opinion in Florida is reflective of two distinct attributes:  #1) Florida, as a consequence of the national melting pot, is widely representative of the national demographic and sentiment.  And, #2)  The historic trend in Florida (think Charlie Crist), is once you’ve exhausted the emotional/trust bank account – you’re done, kaput, over.

(Via PPP) PPP’s new Florida poll finds that Marco Rubio remains quite unpopular in the state in the wake of his unsuccessful Presidential bid, and that voters aren’t interested in seeing him run for the Senate this year.

Only 32% of voters in the state approve of the job Rubio is doing as Senator, to 54% who disapprove. Those numbers make him one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even among Republicans his numbers are barely positive at 51/37 and he does very poorly with both independents (25/54) and Democrats (18/70). Only 39% of voters in the state want him to run for reelection this year, compared to 51% who say he should sit it out.

If Rubio did decide to run, he would face a tough contest. He trails Patrick Murphy 44-43 in a hypothetical match up, and that comes despite Murphy currently having only 38% name recognition (20% favorable, 18% unfavorable). Among voters who are actually familiar with both Murphy and Rubio, Murphy’s advantage widens to 22 points at 57/35. Murphy would start out as a wider favorite over Carlos Beruff (43/31) and David Jolly (44/29).  (read more)

Here’s the Full Poll Data:

lion the storm

trump lion

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This entry was posted in Bernie Sanders, Clinton(s), Desperately Seeking Hillary, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Marco Rubio, media bias. Bookmark the permalink.

72 Responses to PPP Florida Poll: Donald Trump 45%, Hillary Clinton 44% – (Oh, and Marco Rubio is Toast)…

  1. John Galt says:

    “PPP’s new Florida poll finds that Marco Rubio remains quite unpopular in the state in the wake of his unsuccessful Presidential bid, and that voters aren’t interested in seeing him run for the Senate this year.”

    This was pretty obvious if you looked at Rubio’s Twitter feed after he turned traitor with the Gang of 8. Trump telling Rubio to run for reelection = Hey Marco, go play in the freeway kid.

    Liked by 12 people

  2. Bull Durham says:

    So, Rubio? Why did everyone say they needed him for Senate run if Murphy is ahead?

    Liked by 4 people

  3. NHVoter says:

    Everyone I know in Florida (including my mom) says that Trump will easily win the state. I know there will be massive voter fraud there but so far this poll looks like good news.

    I’m laughing so hard at Rubio’s numbers. Serves that little twerp right.

    Liked by 15 people

  4. Pam says:

    Here is the full breakdown.

    Liked by 7 people

  5. majorstar says:

    You mean Marco Rubio, the “full-throated conservative”? The savior of the Republican Party? LMAO

    Liked by 12 people

  6. Sentient says:

    Phone survey. I believe in the primaries phone surveys tended to under-report Trump’s eventual support on election day.

    Liked by 7 people

    • sayit2016 says:

      The call HOME phones instead of CELL phones.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Arkindole says:

        My bet is on a skeleton crew of condo dwellers living on bingo winnings.

        Liked by 2 people

      • yy4u says:

        I’m one of the dinosaurs with a land line. I also have caller ID. So when a pollster shows up on the TV screen or the phone screen, I pick up the phone and hang up…ending the call before it begins. I don’t want them to know I’m voting for Trump. I WANT them to underestimate his support. I don’t want them to know how many dead people or dogs have to vote in order to deliver the election to the Democrat.

        Liked by 3 people

  7. Trumped says:

    We also might extend our view about the states where Bernie supporters will go big time for Trump!

    I think it was West Virginia or Pennsylvania where this was happening.
    I suspect Florida is one of these states. I think California, Arizona and Utah bernie voters for example wont go in majority to Trump.

    I think the swing states will all go Trump.

    In that context one might also ask in which states the monster vote will be showing up stronger.

    Liked by 4 people

  8. Pjcab says:

    When rubio was running for the senate he came to our church to speak, it’s a big,big church in south fl, he was speaking at a forum they held. Everyone loved what he was saying and bought in 100%. He then got elected and went to DC and did the exact opposite of what he said. No one who heard him speak that day ever trusted him again. Total fraud.

    Liked by 8 people

  9. mike tramel says:

    Nbc survey monkey poll out today that msnbc have been mum about Trump 40 Clinton 39 Johnson 10 Stein 4 Its pretty bad when you cant push your on poll on your own station when you don’t like the numbers

    Liked by 6 people

    • Trumped says:

      The poll puts Hillary stronger when head to head. I feel this poll is a total outlier or even tampered with regarding the Johnson numbers.

      Liked by 2 people

  10. boutis says:

    The media is also trying to drive the Dem narrative that Trump is too risky a choice. With zero understanding of risk management, analysis or management, the largest risks are taken by people when things are bad, VERY,VERY BAD. Like now. Four more years of Obama/Clinton is not what the public want to RISK..Women are naturally more risk adverse which is as nature intended it. That women are now fully open to voting for Trump is just another example of how bad everything is.

    Liked by 5 people

  11. TrumpIllinois2016 says:

    This poll is GREAT news but how the hell does Trump lose independents to Clinton ? I don’t believe that for a second.

    Liked by 7 people

    • singtune says:

      I Agree Mike & I Live in Florida Full Time~! This IS a very Strong Area for TRUMP~~! I am on the WEST Coast, in Sarasota County. However, know it also is like that where my Daughter lives in Pt. Saint Lucie, on the East Coast as Jobs are a factor in Florida too, just not as dramatic as in other ares of the USA~!

      Liked by 2 people

  12. sayit2016 says:

    Hey all !! The CT has given us invaluable information during this primary season. as well as other events as they happen on other topics ) Sundance has manned a steady ship. I am beyond grateful. In celebration of this feat— I would like to invite ALL Treepers to play a little game with me, because I find you are all, very very clever people. Lets the games begin! Please come up with your BEST moniker for Hillary going forward….and lets get it to the TRUMP campaign. ie. “Hangover Hillary” ( ok.. lets face it.. that is kinda dumb, but you see what I mean ) ; )

    Liked by 2 people

    • HAGGARD HILLARY
      (Visual Imagery invites you to fill in your own … Unforgettable … Picture)
      (Hag for short … With every connotation that goes with it)
      (No energy, no stamina fits perfectly)

      Liked by 4 people

      • boutis says:

        She is also as big as a house. Her “expensive” designer clothing look like old army blankets. And she looks more like Merkel every day. Ugh.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Lindenlee says:

          Listen, women put on weight when they age. Thyroids don’t work well. Men get bellies, woman put it on in the hips. Weight has nothing to do with competence, and it’s not rght 9as much as despise Hillary), to judge her on her weight.

          Golda Meir was very matronly, but a great leader of her country. Looks have NOTHING to do with it, character and competence, EVERYTHING. Besides, nobody talks about men being “big as a house”. Character and competence, all that matters.

          Liked by 2 people

          • WSB says:

            I think boutis was remarking more about how Hillary carries herself…and I see the same thing in Merkel. It’s all about the attitude. Designer clothing can’t lie for character.

            Liked by 1 person

          • Shadrach says:

            You ever notice when you love someone they are beautiful? And when you don’t like someone, they are ugly no matter how beautiful?

            If Hillary were a nice person, nobody would comment on her weight. They’d think she was good just the way she is. Merkel before the immigration mess…nobody cared about her size. Now they’re even worse when they describe her. Cruz before he went nuts…ordinary boring looking guy. Now he’s so repulsive looking I really can’t look at him. Anyway. Just saying.

            Like

            • Linden says:

              Yes, beauty is in the eye… For sure. I just think that it’s always best to be objective in one’s assessment of matters, and no matter how provoked, not dive into distribe. Although I must admit, I am sorely tempted at times. LOL.

              Like

    • The Hour of Decision says:

      Bloody Hillary in conjunction with repeating at his rallies, “Hillary has blood on her hands.”.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Shadrach says:

      I call her Her Royal Cankles to myself. Cankles being the nom de jour, but Her Royal because she feels that she is owed the job of the presidency despite not having earned it.

      I think Her Royal Cankles despises Americans….at least ordinary ones like us, and I suspect she is even more disgusted by the minorities she panders to. She reminds me of the White Witch of Narnia. So…Her Royal Cankles is my pet name for Hillary. I don’t think the Trump campaign can say Cankles though.

      Like

    • Jett Black says:

      HiLIARy. Short. To the point. Eye catching. I didn’t invent it, but can’t remember who did–so to that mystery genius–THANKS!

      Liked by 1 person

  13. ripcurl2121 says:

    trump wins FL by 7-10 points

    Liked by 8 people

  14. rebel53blog says:

    I reside in Florida and travel around the state frequently and without a doubt it is a Trump state. Dade County/Miami is a Democrat stronghold and the only county Rubio won in the Florida primary, Trump won 66 out of 67 counties. Hillary’s brother, Hugh Rodham also was a former congressman in this area but when he tried to run for the US Senate was defeated by Republican Connie Mack. Rodham also owns another home in Scranton, PA where he did fundraising back in 2008 for Hillary. Florida is most certainly in play for Trump and I actually think he has a wider margin that what is reflected in the polls.

    Liked by 8 people

  15. Linda says:

    Well, this is very interesting:

    Report: Trump Refused $200 Million to Pick Gingrich as VP
    Establishment tries to control Trump through VP pick

    http://www.infowars.com/report-trump-refused-200-million-to-pick-gingrich-as-vp/

    Liked by 7 people

  16. Keln says:

    Conversely only 9% of registered republicans would support Hillary Clinton.

    How is it possible for that many registered Republicans to support Hillary? I mean, maybe an outlier 1-2%, but 9%??

    I mean, being registered Democrat is not that big of a deal. It’s “cool” to be a Democrat, as it’s Republicans that are the butt of jokes in comedy and media. Registering Republican generally means you’ve made a conscious decision to be a Republican, even if it isn’t cool, and you are most likely Conservative or right-leaning in some fashion. That’s one of the reasons why there are so many more registered Dems than Repubs. There is an actual social pressure against being a Republican which has been manufactured in Hollywood and other media for decades.

    Could these people be butthurt #NeverTrumpers? Are they really that idiotic?

    Liked by 2 people

    • TrumpIllinois2016 says:

      People who supported mitt Romney and Jeb bush. I’m pleasantly surprised it’s only 9%. I’m sure most democrats are horrified that Trump peels off 14% of democrats.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Arkindole says:

      There is a cocktail class of so-called republicans down here that are pure bred democrats. They love the free stuff at the Palm Beach and Tampa mixers and never pay. We sort of let them play the game without disturbing them, but you can see the oil stains on their plaid golf pants where they’ve stuffed in a pound of fried shrimp. Imagine the worst stereotypical used car salesman you’ve ever encountered, and there you have it.

      Liked by 4 people

    • stobberdobber says:

      Keln says:
      June 7, 2016 at 5:21 pm
      Conversely only 9% of registered republicans would support Hillary Clinton.

      How is it possible for that many registered Republicans to support Hillary? I mean, maybe an outlier 1-2%, but 9%??

      You have to remember that Florida is a closed primary. If they went by current registrations, they got a lot of people that switched registration to either vote for or against Trump. I suspect that at least some of them were the 9% with Dems switching to vote against Trump.

      Like

  17. Lindenlee says:

    Murphy is not well liked in his district, it was Allen West’s district before, but the state Pubbies redistricted West out not once, but TWICE. Murphy evidently (and I have this from a credible source) actually got to Congress thinking that he would represent his constituents, and got taken aside by Pelosi and told, in no uncertain terms, that he was there to represent the PARTY, NOT his constituents.

    Seeing as how he bought the seat with his daddy’s money, and all the “dump West” money that poured into the race, I guess he just tucked tail and submitted. He is no stellar rep, and his NO personal charisma. at all. I will vote for Ron Desantis in the primary. Jolly is scum.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. daughnworks247 says:

    Very interesting poll data from Florida and an insight to Rubios numbers was a special treat. Gosh, I would loe to know Cruz’s current numbers in the state of Texas by an honest polling firm.

    Liked by 2 people

  19. Martell says:

    I am an American of Hispanic (Cuban) descent. I cannot even begin to coherently express how much I despise Rubio without losing my temper. But, I tell you this: That fraud, Jebito Bush, sure comes close to Rubio in his treasonous anti American ideology.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. In going with the premise of the Dems thinking they can turn red states blue, as in why the PPP polled Georgia, Crooked Hillary thinks she can win TX http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/hillary-clinton-predicts-texas-win-223727
    Trump has a better shot at Hawaii, VT, or Mass, before Crooked Hillary will ever have a shot at the Lone Star State.

    Like

  21. DrRJP says:

    “Not only does Donald Trump edge out Hillary Clinton with current Florida polling…”

    Not only does “Sundance” prove he’s making false statements, but also that he’s a mathematical moron.

    There is no “edge” here. The margin of error is +/- 3.6% meaning that Clinton could also have 47.6% and Trump could also have 41.4%

    The actual difference is even worse. The probability of Trump actually leading Clinton is 61% or 34% less than the 95% level of confidence required.

    The breakouts are even more “effed up” up because the pollsters pulled these subgroups right out of the same sample and treated them as if they were independent groups.

    “Female voters have a higher unfavorability opinion of Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump by a margin of 56% to 55%”

    WRONG!

    With 391 women in the survey, the margin of error is 5% IF these women were drawn from a separate sample.

    Since they were drawn from the same sample, there is only a 58% probability of a true difference (again, the 95% level of confidence is the benchmark).

    “Female Voters support Donald Trump (45%) over Hillary Clinton (44%) by the same margin as the general electorate result.”

    EVEN MORE WRONG!

    The actual probability of a true difference in the general election was 61% versus the 58% shown here.

    In any event, I question the validity of the entire survey when it gets results like these:

    Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alan Grayson?

    22% Favorable
    26% Unfavorable
    51% Unsure

    Anyone who doesn’t know that Grayson is the Douche Bag Democrat known far and wide for his outrageous comments, and for his ego that’s more inflated than the Goodyear blimp, should not be participating in any political survey, period.

    Like

  22. kinthenorthwest says:

    GOOOOooo TRUMP
    Still can’t understand people supporting a crook

    Like

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