There’s a whole lot of good news and ‘splodey head angst in the latest ABC/Washington Post national poll (full pdf below). The poll sample size of 1005 includes a mix of 33% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% Independent. Democrats over sampled by eight points, (D+8).
However, even with the sample skew (D+8) Donald Trump still beats Hillary Clinton 46% to 44%, and Trump is crushing Clinton with Independent voters 48% to 35%.
In addition to the overwhelming 13 point polling lead among independent voters, the same poll shows that 20% of Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Donald Trump.
Also, very optimistically presented in the poll data is the exact percentage of Mitt Romney Voters (Never Trumpers) we predicted back in March that would defect to Team Clinton, 6%. Conversely, when the race switches from the primary to the General Election 8% of Clinton primary voters will vote Trump.
In essence if Clinton wins the Democrat nomination, the stats show Trump can add the Clinton primary voters (8%) to the Sanders ship-jumpers (20%) and the “registered Democrat voters” voting for Trump is very significant.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone May 16-19, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including 829 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample and registered voters alike. Partisan divisions are 33-25-35 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 34-27-33 among registered voters.
Via ABC – A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows a close contest in presidential election preferences, with Republicans lining up behind Donald Trump as their party’s presumptive nominee while the continued Democratic race is keeping Hillary Clinton’s side more unsettled.
Greater voter registration among Republicans is one factor: Clinton’s 6-point lead among all adults, 48-42 percent in a general election matchup, switches to essentially a dead heat among registered voters, 46 percent for Trump, 44 percent for Clinton. Regardless, the contest has tightened considerably since March, when Clinton led among registered voters by 9 points. (read more)