In 2014 when we first wrote about the GOPe road map, the prediction of 15 republican candidates and the “splitter strategy”, many political followers said we were engaged in speculative nuttery.
In 2015 when we first wrote about the roles of each of the “splitter strategy” participants, many more political followers said we were engaged in conspiracy theory.
In hindsight, both of those previous sets of predictions were entirely accurate.
However, in December ’15, and January ’16 we predicted something else, something even more radical. We predicted record-breaking voter turnout in the primary and general election of 2016.
In November 2015 a blogger named Citizen Dale coined the phrase “The Monster Vote“. We agreed with the underlying premise, and we predicted specific statistics that, if achieved, would prove if the Monster Vote was real.
However, because there are so many naysayers, we asked for independent review of our predictions and analysis. Many of you will remember – Nick H, a statistician by trade, took on the challenge and expanded on our theory. In February, we developed a few simple predictions for the primary and general election.
We can now look at the 2016 voter results and compare them to our tripwire predictions.
Prediction -vs Results #1:
In 2012 Georgia had 901,470 votes in the Republican primary. The % increase in the South is +45%, we add another 405,661 votes to give us a predicted total of 1.3 million votes in Georgia for the 2016 Republican primary vote.
- We predicted a republican primary turnout of 1,300,000 (1.3 million) in Georgia, estimating the increase at 45%. –LINK–
- Actual republican turnout in Georgia was 1,295,964 (1.295 million) the increase was 44.7% – LINK –
Prediction -vs- Results #2:
In 2008 slightly less than 22 million voted in the Republican primary. In 2012 just over 19 million voted in the primary.
- We predicted a Republican voter turnout model of 29,528,228 for 2016 (an increase of almost 50%). -LINK–
- Actual Republican Voter turnout so far 26,561,719 (an increase almost 50%). –LINK–
Prediction -vs- Results #3:
In 2008 more than 38 million Democrats voted in the primary (38,111,341). There was no Democrat primary in 2012.
- We predicted a Democrat voter turnout model of 28,450,721 in the 2016 primary (a decrease of around 30%) –LINK–
- Actual Democrat Voter turnout so far 22,355,221 (a decrease of around 30%) – LINK–
While there are still a few states left to vote in both the Democrat and Republican primary contests you can see and decide for yourself if those earlier predictions are entirely accurate.
This empirical data is disturbing for one person specifically. Stuart Stevens was the campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012, he has also been one of Donald Trump’s harshest critics.
Stevens continually referenced statistics in January, February and March to claim Donald Trump was not building a broad-based coalition.
We challenged Stevens with our own independent analysis and statistics and referenced the appearance of the Monster Vote. Stevens refuted such a contention and continually claimed no-one could exceed Mitt Romney’s 2012 primary or general election turnout. Unfortunately, Stuart Stevens (and his #NeverTrump followers) blocked us from his twitter feed.
The predictions you have read above are the predictions Stuart Stevens said could NEVER be accurate. You decide, but we feel we’ve proved our point.
Why is this important?
If prediction #1, #2, and #3 ended up being accurate. Prediction #4 becomes much more solid. Prediction #4 is based on the historical statistical lift of voters in general elections when compared to primary elections.
In 2008 21.9 million Republicans voted in the primary and 58.1 million voted in the general election (265% increase). In 2012 19.2 million primary -vs- 59.2 million in the general (308% increase).
Barack Obama won in ’08 with 66.5 million / McCain 58.1.
Barack Obama won in ’12 with 62.3 million / Romney 59.2
If the 2016 increases are even remotely maintained given the scope of the current increase in Republican Primary participation, the general election vote would be through the roof.
And here is where you begin to understand the potential scope of the 2016 primary voter for the Republican nominee, Donald J Trump. This is the bottom line the media and establishment republicans do not want to see discussed. This is the potential for the “Trump Effect”. This is the Monster Vote:
That’s 7.2 million more votes than Barack Obama carried in 2008, and almost 13 million more than Mitt Romney carried in 2012.
That’s YUGE !
That’s the Monster Vote.
That’s also a landslide victory for Donald Trump.
Another way of looking at it – that Monster Vote increase is simply adding 10% of the approximately 120 million voters who never vote in elections. And those new voters are exactly what you see showing up at Donald Trump primary campaign rallies.